Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[marcmurphy3]

Why do we have an obsession with accumulating small forwards?

Moir isn't really a small forward. More a medium type which we lack. Only similar player on our list is Martin.

Kind of agree regarding Collard though he is quicker then the guys we have.

 

[JuddgementDay]

I've read enough for the week, and here are my selections (until next week) - in the listed order

Pick #22
Dream (unlikely available):

• Tholstrup
• Collard
• CEwards

Should be available:

• ARoberts
• Zakostelsky
• DeMattia
• Sanchez

Pick #28
Dream - any of the above

Should be available:

• Simpson
• Hastie
• Moir
• Lual
• Schoenmaker

That's plenty to be happy with

 

[Stamos]

Why do we have an obsession with accumulating small forwards?

Moir is 187 and 85kg. Not a small forward.

 

[JuddgementDay]

Why do need picks for FAs?

Ooops - you know what I meant. Someone we need to trade for e.g. pre-agents

 

[Soapy V]

Ooops - you know what I meant. Someone we need to trade for e.g. pre-agents

I wasn’t sure what you meant. Anyway we need to use picks at some point and we are well in the Premiership window.

If Austin believes we can get a player now that will improve us next year I am all for it

 

[marcmurphy3]

I'm not sure why we would go for either given the amount of forwards we now have.
Midfield is looking very shallow.

I think our backup mids are guys who play other positions.

1. Cripps
2. Walsh
3. Cerra
4. Hewett
5. Kennedy
6. Docherty
7. E.Hollands
8. O.Hollands
9. Williams
10. Carroll
11. Cunningham
12. Fogarty

The first 4 guys will play, Kennedy in reserve, Docherty and Hollands bros likely switch to mid if we get alot of injuries. Cunningham and Fogarty if all hell breaks loose. Carroll depends how he progresses. Williams still an option too.

I think we want our strongest midfield possible and would rather recruit guys who can backfill those small forward / defender roles, enabling guys we already have to play mid. As opposed to recruiting some 2nd rate onballers for depth.

 

[Soapy V]

Why do we have an obsession with accumulating small forwards?

Quality or Quantity?

IMO we have Motlop as our only genuine small forward star. Durdin has potential but not there yet. Owies is a worker as is Fogarty.

If we keep our picks and we believe a gun small forward is available we rate then I’m all for it just as I am for a mid or a defender

 

[Soapy V]

I think our backup mids are guys who play other positions.

1. Cripps
2. Walsh
3. Cerra
4. Hewett
5. Kennedy
6. Docherty
7. E.Hollands
8. O.Hollands
9. Williams
10. Carroll
11. Cunningham
12. Fogarty

The first 4 guys will play, Kennedy in reserve, Docherty and Hollands bros likely switch to mid if we get alot of injuries. Cunningham and Fogarty if all hell breaks loose. Carroll depends how he progresses. Williams still an option too.

I think we want our strongest midfield possible and would rather recruit guys who can backfill those small forward / defender roles, enabling guys we already have to play mid. As opposed to recruiting some 2nd rate onballers for depth.

Kemp Motlop Durdin Cottrell Binns Charlie?

 

[BlueTongue]

I think our backup mids are guys who play other positions.

1. Cripps
2. Walsh
3. Cerra
4. Hewett
5. Kennedy
6. Docherty
7. E.Hollands
8. O.Hollands
9. Williams
10. Carroll
11. Cunningham
12. Fogarty

The first 4 guys will play, Kennedy in reserve, Docherty and Hollands bros likely switch to mid if we get alot of injuries. Cunningham and Fogarty if all hell breaks loose. Carroll depends how he progresses. Williams still an option too.

I think we want our strongest midfield possible and would rather recruit guys who can backfill those small forward / defender roles, enabling guys we already have to play mid. As opposed to recruiting some 2nd rate onballers for depth.

Not sure why Vossy doesnt want a big bodied mid that can kick (like himself).
Most of these 12 are 'Pinch Hitting/Role Player' mids and we sorely lack genuine pace & footskills.

 

[marcmurphy3]

The thing with free agents is the best ones are restricted free agents. We aren't in a position to pay massive overs (enough to trigger band 1 or 2 compo), so clubs are more likely to match our offer and force a trade.

So if we are looking at bringing in players from other clubs in the next few years we will more then likely need currency. A point to consider.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Not sure why Vossy doesnt want a big bodied mid that can kick (like himself).
Most of these 12 are 'Pinch Hitting/Role Player' mids and we sorely lack genuine pace & footskills.

Agree we are missing that. I'm sure Voss would love one but gun mids are pretty hard to find outside the early stage of the draft. Particularly ones with pace and skill who can win the ball.

 

[Soapy V]

The thing with free agents is the best ones are restricted free agents. We aren't in a position to pay massive overs (enough to trigger band 1 or 2 compo), so clubs are more likely to match our offer and force a trade.

So if we are looking at bringing in players from other clubs in the next few years we will more then likely need currency. A point to consider.

Why aren’t we in a position to pay more?

Although I don’t believe Cook would allow it and it will be about coming to a club that could win a flag

 

[Soapy V]

Agree we are missing that. I'm sure Voss would love one but gun mids are pretty hard to find outside the early stage of the draft. Particularly ones with pace and skill who can win the ball.

Maybe that’s why we are trying to get up the order?

 

[Jimmae]

All I know is we are really trying to get up the order and next years first is on the table.

Talk is that we could jump up on the night if a few selections fall our way

Austin really wants to get up the draft order

It's a good top 8 or so outside the bids, then a dip to another bracket for 5-10 picks, then arguably even down to maybe 40. Might be tough to get a top 10 pick unless North, West Coast and Hawthorn really shake up the order.

Within that top bracket, I don't think Curtin will make it past Melbourne at this point, and I don't value Watson, Leake, and Duursma as high as others seemingly do, while I don't think Sanders suits our list.

If we're able to access a pick in that 7-11 range, I'd be doing it for Duursma, Curtin, or Caddy. Watson I'd be keen on in the 15-22 range, but given it would probably cost us both of our current picks in the exchange, I'd want a completely mapped out path for him coming straight into the seniors with a few extra kgs of muscle on.

I can imagine if we listened to both Soapy and Jimmae, we'd be trading next year's first rounder and probably our first this year for the player with the least amount of risk in his athletic profile. Go Austin - get it done!

I mean if that somehow landed McKercher I'd do it (it won't)

Why do we have an obsession with accumulating small forwards?

Pretty confident we'll move Motlop more and more into the midfield, while Durdin may start to rotate HF/wing, then you've got Cuningham, Fogarty, and Cottrell in that same rotation conversation.

I've put forward Owies as a stoppage mid option at times too, but I don't think he's going to stick around long enough to bother with the transition.

If the goal is to have 2-3 in the forward group on any given day - and perhaps and extra if the mid rotation isn't deep - you're probably wanting at least 5 on your list, especially with just 3 KPFs given the want to flex TDK as needed.

If you assume Cuningham, Motlop, and E.Hollands are earmarked as mids, that has us at that bare minimum 5 currently with:

Fogarty
Owies
Fantasia
Cottrell
C.Durdin

Which puts us in strife, particularly in terms of players who are natural forwards. Remember that Durdin, Fogarty, and Cottrell played mostly as mids in their junior footy.

Our forward group and our attacking midfield group are pretty nebulous at the moment, so I can understand them looking at the level of injury risk and positional flux and wanting natural forwards.

 

[Blue and Silver]

I believe we want a better pick.

But it takes two to tango.

Which team would trade with us?

Adelaide wants O'Sullivan and will try and trade up with the Giants/Cats/Bombers to make it happen. Maybe one of those teams would on-trade that with us?

Seems like most of the teams in the top 12 don't want to trade out of this year's draft ( taking a future pick)

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[macky99]

The thing with free agents is the best ones are restricted free agents. We aren't in a position to pay massive overs (enough to trigger band 1 or 2 compo), so clubs are more likely to match our offer and force a trade.

So if we are looking at bringing in players from other clubs in the next few years we will more then likely need currency. A point to consider.

There are very few examples of clubs matching free agent offers for players that wish to leave their clubs.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Did an interesting piece of analysis earlier (clearly too much time on my hands).

Looked at the top 10 players (20 for onballers) in each role in the league and where they were taken in the draft. Themes are pretty clear. If you want top mids, particuarly mid-forwards you need to take them in the 1st round if not top 10. Gun key forwards unlikely to be found outside the 1st round either. Running defenders and small / hybrid forwards you can get anywhere, though some good ones do go early. Wingers, rucks, key defenders, and intercepting defenders more often than not get taken later. You can argue with the names and categories, but themes are the same even if you swap them around.

I'd be interested to know how much clubs consider this type of historical information when going about their list builds. Obviously, there are exceptions (e.g. Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

) but you'd think list managers would factor in the odds when working out how to use picks. For example, even though we need an explosive mid-forward, Austin would know we are unlikely to get one that turns out with a pick in the 20s, so he focuses elsewhere or tries to get an earlier pick.


Onballers / Mid-Fwds
Dawson (56), Neale (58), Cripps (13), Walsh (1), N.Daicos (4), DeGoey (5), Merrett (26), Serong (8), Brayshaw (2), Miller (29) , Kelly (2), Green (9), Coniglio (2), Oliver (Pick 4), Petracca (2), Rozee (5), Butters (12), McLuggage (3), Bontompelli (4), Martin (4)

Wingers
Acres (19), Docherty (12), J.Daicos (57), Sidebottom (11), N.Martin (Rookie), Holmes (20), Amon (68), Langdon (54), Hunter (49), Wood (41),

Running Defenders
Quaynor (13), Coleman (37), Newman (35), Saad (25), Whitfield (1), Sinclair (Rookie), Dale (45), Blakey (10), Houston (Rookie), H.Young (7)

Intercepting Defenders
Howe (33), Maynard (30), Ridley (22), Ryan (66), Stewart (40), Sicily (56), Lever (14), Vlaustin (9), Grimes (Rookie), J.McGovern (44), Wilkie (Rookie)

Key Defenders
Andrews (61), Weitering (1), Moore (9), Cox (41), Collins (55), Ballard (42), Taylor (28), May (Zone), Barrass (43), Jones (32)

Key Forwards
Walker (Zone), Daniher (10), Curnow (12), Cameron (Zone), B.King (6), N.Larkey (73), T.Lynch (11), M.King (4), Naughton (9), Hawkins (Old FS System – Would have been 1 or 2)

Hybrid Forwards / Small Forwards
Cameron (Rookie), Greene (11), Fritch (31), Breust (Rookie), Elliot (Zone), Papley (Rookie), Pickett (12), Rankine (3), Bolton (29), Stengle (Rookie)

Rucks
Darcy (38), Witts (67), Briggs (34), Gawn (34), Goldstein (37), Marshall (Rookie), Grundy (18), English (19), O’Brien (Rookie), Nankervis (35)

 

[Soapy V]

The more I look at the options and what will be available my preferred options are

Cooper Simpson
Ashton Moir

Would really add to our list

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Moir or Collard with our first, which ever is still on the board.

Think it’ll be Moir

 

[gandaal]

I know that most won't agree with me, but for the record I think George Stevens is easily the best player available at our selections.

People focus way too much on what people can't do, and not on what they can do. If what they can do is perfect for their role then there's no issue. If George gets picked up by the right club he'll play plenty of AFL footy next year.

 

[Wickzki]

All I know is we are really trying to get up the order and next years first is on the table.

Talk is that we could jump up on the night if a few selections fall our way

Austin really wants to get up the draft order

Heard today that a few of the names we've been linked to have been to "bait" other teams into trading with us.

We've identified players we believe other clubs covet and have kept our cards close to the chest

Probably nothing out of the ordinary but was intrigued when saw you posted this.

 

[Juddernaut08]

All I know is we are really trying to get up the order and next years first is on the table.

Talk is that we could jump up on the night if a few selections fall our way

Austin really wants to get up the draft order

makes me nervous! seems we've traded away too much value when involving future picks in recent times.

 

[djw1952]

Moir or Collard with our first, which ever is still on the board.

If Carlton selected Collard, wouldn`t that put an end to the career of either Motlop or Durdin or maybe even both, as Collard plays in their position and I could not imagine the three of them running around in our forward line together. Just wondering what you think Forty3:

 

[swuzzlebubble]

If Carlton selected Collard, wouldn`t that put an end to the career of either Motlop or Durdin or maybe even both, as Collard plays in their position and I could not imagine the three of them running around in our forward line together. Just wondering what you think Forty3:

He'll be an 18yo 2nd round draftee. No guarantee to play seniors next year let alone put an end to careers.

 

[macky99]

The more I look at the options and what will be available my preferred options are

Cooper Simpson
Ashton Moir

Would really add to our list

Agree they would be ideal choices.