Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[WalshistheGOAT]

I get your desire for shiny new (hyped) toys, but can you please lay off our kids. Just a reminder, we played in a prelim last season, we are not struggling minnows.

Durds has spent a significant part of the past two seasons injured, missing most of both pre seasons, and Motlop is a very talented kid. Both are likely long term best 22 players in slightly different roles. Durdin is pressure forward first, and gets to many contests he should not have to. I do not question his ability to hit the scoreboard when allowed to operate as a crumber. He has has little opportunity to play beside our dramatically upgraded wingers of last season. Better balance and two way running somewhat alleviates the need for our small forwards to work excessively deep in defence.

Motlop is a work in progress. A very talented and instinctive player who is still wet behind the ears. He has the instincts of his family relations before him, in that his first thought is to attack. He is in need of regular reminding of his defensive responsibilities, but I believe we can look forward to continuing improvement in 2024. With Fantasia setting a new bar, should he remain fit, more pressure will be present to earn his spot.

Owies and Fogarty have set the bar for work rate and defensive application and will ensure the youngsters earn their stripes. Clearly we have sent the message that we are seeking an upgrade in that area though.

Collard remains potential. Dominance at a very low level is no guarantee of success at the highest level. Should our recruiters decide to opt for him after due diligence, he will have my full support. His lack of impact at his state level appearance is a red flag for me as are reports of questions of his ability or inclination to move interstate. I am in need of convincing, but I do view from afar.

If it is Collard V Moir on face value, I back Moir on exposed form.

Firstly, I was responding to a post about the selection of another small forward putting Durdin and Motlops careers in jeopardy. I'm not going out of my way to whack either. I think both are best 22 players and have scope to improve but if it did end up the case that Collard came in and took their spot, my point was then we shouldn't be worrying about them missing out.

Secondly, I've been a massive Collard fan since midway through the year, before he had any huge games in the back half of the year and during his lacklustre champs campaign. Requested Noober put together the first couple of highlights clips of him because I was a believer well before the hype.

Thirdly, since even before round 1 this season I've been saying our small forwards and high half forwards are a weak point on our list and that we need to look to address it this off season if we want to take the next step. Still of that opinion and have said the same consistently throughout the year.

So no, I don't want a shiny new hyped toy... I want a player I've watched plenty of and believe to be comfortably the 2nd best small forward in the draft and a better prospect than our current options if he reaches his potential.

 

[Garters]

what about E Hollands 189 cm -taller than Martin

6'2 in the old format, taller than I thought. If we can get him firing will be a very useful asset. Has the size and ability to play a number of rolls

 

[Soapy V]

Kudos to Sheephead who I think was the first person to put Cooper Simpson on the map about 5-6 weeks ago. Nobody bit. I only spotted him in the draft write-ups a couple of weeks later and dropped the name....still no interest. Seems he's finally getting some recognition here, however still not much media coverage. Gives me hope thay he could be one of those Austin is confident we'd be able to get even if we moved back a few spots.

Perfect fit for our midfield in the coming years. Could easily play early, but could also develop in the 2s for a little bit.

I reckon the reported interest in Moir and Collard could be 50% genuine but also 50% ploy to try and get another team to reach.

One safe pick in Simpson, and then one risk/reward pick or slider. We've seen what happens when you burn a draft or two - leaves a big hole in your age profile and then you end up committing more resources down the line to plug gaps.

Duffy and Monahan are low cost, low percentage, high potential types. Eli Hollands could be great or absolutely nothing. Fantasia could be a key piece over the next few years or a rehab fixture. Taking two "risky" draftees seems too much a gamble when you put it alongside that list.

Need at least one bankable recruit who you can almost lock in for 150+ games (injury gods willing). Simpson looks the man in my view.

Forget Duffy. Done ACL and not coming

 

[Blue__Balls]

Forget Duffy. Done ACL and not coming

Pulled the pin permanently, has he? Club release indicated they were keen to rehab him and persist.

 

[Soapy V]

Listening to Kinnear Beatson interview

Effectively said hard to pick and 20-30 could be better than those picked 10-20.
Also said they have analysed previous drafts and sides that have picked need over best player available have generally failed.
Interesting discussion.

I must admit looking at draftees recently as an amateur follower they are very hard to split

If we keep our picks names like Simpson Moir DeMattia Jiath Edwards etc I would be very happy with

 

[Soapy V]

Pulled the pin permanently, has he? Club release indicated they were keen to rehab him and persist.

They will do everything to help and then review I think. Not coming over

 

[Coona Blues]

Firstly, I was responding to a post about the selection of another small forward putting Durdin and Motlops careers in jeopardy. I'm not going out of my way to whack either. I think both are best 22 players and have scope to improve but if it did end up the case that Collard came in and took their spot, my point was then we shouldn't be worrying about them missing out.

Secondly, I've been a massive Collard fan since midway through the year, before he had any huge games in the back half of the year and during his lacklustre champs campaign. Requested Noober put together the first couple of highlights clips of him because I was a believer well before the hype.

Thirdly, since even before round 1 this season I've been saying our small forwards and high half forwards are a weak point on our list and that we need to look to address it this off season if we want to take the next step. Still of that opinion and have said the same consistently throughout the year.

So no, I don't want a shiny new hyped toy... I want a player I've watched plenty of and believe to be comfortably the 2nd best small forward in the draft and a better prospect than our current options if he reaches his potential.

I have seen NOTHING to suggest Collard is a guaranteed upgrade if Motlop and Durdin. Their lack of star quality impact, as alluded to in my post, is due to youth, injury and role definition. They, particularly Durdin pre injury were compelled to hunt defensively deep in opposition forward lines to counteract our lack of two way running and game sense on the wings. Motlop had the benefit of some games with Acres and Hollands upgrading our coverage, and was able to kick some decent hauls.

Can you in any way suggest Collard would work anywhere near to the defensive levels that Durdin, Motlop and our other smalls have, based on exposed form. I reiterate he was bloody invisible when appearing in the championships. In a year when both WA and SA teams were borderline pathetic, surely prospects need to be at least adequate at the next level(s). Collard’s late season surge was exclusively at the lower level, after nit cutting it at state level. At no stage was he elevated to his club’s senior league team, or even reserves level. WA have half a dozen or so decent draft prospects who, at least performed adequately in the state games. Curtin, Hardeman, Tholstrup, Edwards, Sanchez, Zakostelsky, Hall and O’Driscoll, with a couple of others who may get speculative late or rookie consideration. Collard’s performances have him realistically in the last group. Different roles, but his closest player if similar trajectory is Zakostelsky who was decent, playing his role at the championships and elevated with Colts form arguably superior to Collards, with “best ons” in his final two finals games.

Collard’s “reel” is impressive and has gained attention from some professional recruiters. It remains to be seen who “reaches” for him in the draft. Still most likely, he will be drafted by one of his state sides. It will be a brave interstate recruiter that calls out his name due to performance levels, application and go home questions. Someone, even us may grab him, and I concede, there is potential, even “star” potential, but for mine and I would bank most club recruiters, he remains more a speculative pick than a must have.

If Son of Curly calls him, I will support him to the hilt, but I will not advocate to do so and am over the blind love by some on here. We certainly do not need to disrespect our current developing talent to promote a “need” to draft him. If we somehow did select him, he would have to work his arse off to get in front of Mots and Durds(and others) he will not automatically go straight past them.

 

[Soapy V]

I have seen NOTHING to suggest Collard is a guaranteed upgrade if Motlop and Durdin. Their lack of star quality impact, as alluded to in my post, is due to youth, injury and role definition. They, particularly Durdin pre injury were compelled to hunt defensively deep in opposition forward lines to counteract our lack of two way running and game sense on the wings. Motlop had the benefit of some games with Acres and Hollands upgrading our coverage, and was able to kick some decent hauls.

Can you in any way suggest Collard would work anywhere near to the defensive levels that Durdin, Motlop and our other smalls have, based on exposed form. I reiterate he was bloody invisible when appearing in the championships. In a year when both WA and SA teams were borderline pathetic, surely prospects need to be at least adequate at the next level(s). Collard’s late season surge was exclusively at the lower level, after nit cutting it at state level. At no stage was he elevated to his club’s senior league team, or even reserves level. WA have half a dozen or so decent draft prospects who, at least performed adequately in the state games. Curtin, Hardeman, Tholstrup, Edwards, Sanchez, Zakostelsky, Hall and O’Driscoll, with a couple of others who may get speculative late or rookie consideration. Collard’s performances have him realistically in the last group. Different roles, but his closest player if similar trajectory is Zakostelsky who was decent, playing his role at the championships and elevated with Colts form arguably superior to Collards, with “best ons” in his final two finals games.

Collard’s “reel” is impressive and has gained attention from some professional recruiters. It remains to be seen who “reaches” for him in the draft. Still most likely, he will be drafted by one of his state sides. It will be a brave interstate recruiter that calls out his name due to performance levels, application and go home questions. Someone, even us may grab him, and I concede, there is potential, even “star” potential, but for mine and I would bank most club recruiters, he remains more a speculative pick than a must have.

If Son of Curly calls him, I will support him to the hilt, but I will not advocate to do so and am over the blind love by some on here. We certainly do not need to disrespect our current developing talent to promote a “need” to draft him. If we somehow did select him, he would have to work his arse off to get in front of Mots and Durds(and others) he will not automatically go straight past them.

Motlop will be a star. Has it all

 

[Coona Blues]

Listening to Kinnear Beatson interview

Effectively said hard to pick and 20-30 could be better than those picked 10-20.
Also said they have analysed previous drafts and sides that have picked need over best player available have generally failed.
Interesting discussion.

I must admit looking at draftees recently as an amateur follower they are very hard to split

If we keep our picks names like Simpson Moir DeMattia Jiath Edwards etc I would be very happy with

To add perspective Beatson alluded to teams selecting for need at the pointy end of the draft sometimes came unstuck, bypassing some significant talent to do so. Did not talk down needs drafting overall.

His interview was quite enlightening in the sense he was so grounded and readily alluded to a variety of possibilities throughout this and other drafts. Plenty of “real talk” while playing his cards very close to his chest. Much to respect.

 

[Benaly28]

Small forward? Would've thought we have enough of those also..

We don’t have a Pickett/Papley type.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Pablito]

Motlop will be a star. Has it all

Doesn't have speed. Gets caught by the tackler way to often.

We don’t have a Pickett/Papley type.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Just got Fantasia who is that guy if he stays fit.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Twoomey: "Brisbane is set to trade for Gold Coast's pick 24 once the draft starts next week, while Fremantle is in box seat to trade up its third-round picks for the Suns' pick 38."

Hopefully Freo stay behind us.

 

[Soapy V]

Doesn't have speed. Gets caught by the tackler way to often.

Motlop is NOT slow. Very quick over 10-20m. Wait until he gets more confidence. Still very young

 

[Soapy V]

We don’t have a Pickett/Papley type.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I'm very happy with Motlop/Fantasia supported by Owies, Durdin etc

 

[Blue__Balls]

Twoomey: "Brisbane is set to trade for Gold Coast's pick 24 once the draft starts next week, while Fremantle is in box seat to trade up its third-round picks for the Suns' pick 38."

Hopefully Freo stay behind us.

Would assume something like 30 + 51 from Brisbane, or 39 + 51 + 54.

Puts one extra live pick between our first and second selections. Brisbane have been reported to be looking at a developing tall option this year - moving from 30 up to 24 could be a play to get them in the mix for Archer Reid, previously flagged as a possible option for the Tigers at 29.

Depending on our targets, might mean we need to be a little more strategic with which name we call first.

 

[Pablito]

Motlop is NOT slow. Very quick over 10-20m. Wait until he gets more confidence. Still very young

Didn't say he was.

He's not as fast as the elite smalls in the league. Papley, Cameron, Picket, Bruest, Bailey, Daniels, Frederick, Rankine all faster than him.

He's more akin to a Higgins. Which is not bad, just not quick. Confidence doesn't improve speed.

 

[Soapy V]

Didn't say he was.

He's not as fast as the elite smalls in the league. Papley, Cameron, Picket, Bruest, Bailey, Daniels, Frederick, Rankine all faster than him.

He's more akin to a Higgins. Which is not bad, just not quick. Confidence doesn't improve speed.

Respectfully disagree

 

[BlueAbroad]

 

[Soapy V]

I saw this yesterday. Thought it was very good

 

[Arr0w]

I think you should always pick a clear best available, especially at the pointy end

As a draft progresses, clubs would have players ranked in groups, at that point you could focus on needs

At our current picks, there would be a group of players the club would rank at a similar level of talent, focusing on needs would be smart drafting unless the club believes there is a slider ranked higher on the whiteboard

 

[marcmurphy3]

what about E Hollands 189 cm -taller than Martin

Yeah I think he will play that medium forward to start off with, however will push up into the midfield and eventually stay there. So still a need for a Moir type.

 

[branedotorg]

Didn't say he was.

He's not as fast as the elite smalls in the league. Papley, Cameron, Picket, Bruest, Bailey, Daniels, Frederick, Rankine all faster than him.

He's more akin to a Higgins. Which is not bad, just not quick. Confidence doesn't improve speed.

I'd agree, i think he's showed he can be quick with the ball, has a great eye for goal but isn't a quick runner, either in acceleration or flat out pace.

 

[Stamos]

HUN 'Late mail'

https://archive.md/DVV9V#selection-907.0-917.681

Current picks: 22, 28, 68
Carlton looks to have its sights set on injecting more outside run after taking Ollie Hollands and Lachie Cowan last year. They have been linked to Sandringham Dragon Archie Roberts as well as Dandenong Stingrays speedster Billy Wilson, who both played as defenders this year but could be used up the ground. The Blues are fans of speedy utility Harry DeMattia and livewire forward Lance Collard, but they both might not be there at their first selection. Carlton could also bolster its forward stocks, showing interest in crafty small forward Phoenix Gothard and also being linked to South Australian slider Ashton Moir. Geelong Falcons 192cm forward Michael Rudd, crafty Stingray Kade De La Rue, athletic forward Oskar Smartt and WA utility Reece Torrent could appeal as later options with their third pick, which should come in significantly. The Blues will have the Camporeale twins to look forward to next year, the son of Carlton champion Scott, with Ben winning the best-on-ground medal in the U17 Futures match on AFL grand final day.

It has suggestions for our '3rd pick', so either they're very wrong, or maybe we didn't end up adding Duffy to the list?
But we've already announced Cottrell's elevation, so if we had an extra spot we'd be adding a rookie?

 

[marcmurphy3]

So, across all media the players we have been linked to so far are Moir, Lual, Collard, Roberts, Schoenmaker, Sanchez, Jiath, Reid, Edwards. Moir and Lual are the 2 that have been mentioned several times.

Reading between the lines it looks like we most likely take one small / medium forward (Moir, Collard, Sanchez) and one half back (Lual, Roberts, Schoenmaker, Jiath) with an outside chance we take a ruck or key forward (Edwards, Reid).

Haven't been linked to any mids or key defenders. Makes sense given we are well stocked for both and there aren't a heap of great options around our draft range.

Heraldsun updated their list today. Linked us to Roberts, Wilson, DeMattia, Collard, Moir and Gothard. Continues to fit the 1 small / medium forward , 1 running half back narrative. Gothard and Demattia are new. Hadn't heard them before. No mention of Lual interestingly given they were first to link us to him.

 

[marcmurphy3]

HUN 'Late mail'

https://archive.md/DVV9V#selection-907.0-917.681

It has suggestions for our '3rd pick', so either they're very wrong, or maybe we didn't end up adding Duffy to the list?
But we've already announced Cottrell's elevation, so if we had an extra spot we'd be adding a rookie?

Yeah I doubt we have a 3rd pick and even if we do I doubt we take it. Austin doesn't like using late picks. Would either trade it up or SPP more likely.