Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[marcmurphy3]

I thought Curtain wouldn’t last until 7, pretty risky banking on him sliding.

Ah, ok. It does look like he slides now. 1-5 looks locked. Only chance is Melbourne as 6. The fact there has been no talk about a deal with them indicates they are committed to taking the pick.

I'm sure Westcoast would be happy to trade F1 for an earlier pick but nobody else is open to it so they dont really have a choice. GWS first team in the order that are keen.

 

[Jimmae]

If Duffy was the one we listed as Cat A, then we can get a spot by putting him on the Inactive List. But that happens after the draft.
Alternatively, I guess there's a chance that we didn't put him on the list at all.

Either way, I can't see us using 3 picks in the National Draft.

Depends on what's on offer that we're prepared to invest 2 years in. SSP and DFA have their benefits, but the former means you're left waiting probably another 40-50 picks given our draft position.

If you had picks 5 and 55, (generally speaking) you're better off picking up a mid at 5 and a KPD/ruck/small forward with your late pick. There's an OK chance the late pick establishes a respectable AFL career. But if you pick a mid at 55, there's almost no chance they make it.

Historical performance does not predict future returns.

Especially when everyone is looking at it, modelling what small forwards can do for them and readjusting thier draft valuation. There's been a run on elite smalls lately, and you've got Watson as the latest set to be amongst the top 15, perhaps even top 5-8.

https://archive.md/x4qkJ

Hun saying Curtin might last to 7 (GWS) and Eagles would trade F1 to get that pick.

Melbourne might even get in on that action. If Caddy gets to the Cats pick and they're happy to trade, I'd make that deal in a heartbeat.

Personally reckon North/Hawks/Dees would all be crazy not to select him.

Hawks probably will if the Eagles don't swing some moves.

North are right to prefer McKercher, and then Duursma is about taking his abilties and turning him into the next Dangerfield.

If the Roos go down that path, we should be sniffing around their 2nd tier midfielders in a year or two. Not a chance they can keep Phillips, Simpkin, LDU, Wardlaw, Thomas, George, Scott, Duursma, and McKercher on the same list for long.

Ridiculous midfield talent, not a lot of it super outside though.

 

[branedotorg]

I think the pick number is irrelevent as it doesn't change how WC rate Curtin. It's about whether they think he is worth losing pick 1-3 in next year's draft.

It sounds like the teams with pick 1 to 6 have no interest in trading, even for Eagles F1.

Surprised Melbourne wouldn't given they have another first rounder and don't desperately need a top pick but maybe they want to get someone now that can help them win a flag next year.

melbourne have a lot of eggs in the May, Gawn basket at 32 next year and viney, petracca, lever all 28 next year.

if they're serious about topping up to win again with this group it has to be in the next 24 months imo and 2024 top draft pick probably wont help that

 

[Stamos]

I thought Curtain wouldn’t last until 7, pretty risky banking on him sliding.

It would be a live trade. They're not doing it if Hawthorn take Curtin at 4.

 

[Coona Blues]

Sounds crazy, If WC use a F1 to get 7, wouldn’t another club just threaten to pick him to get something out of WC? Pick 7 doesn’t seem high enough for WC future 1st.

I thought Curtain wouldn’t last until 7, pretty risky banking on him sliding.

They don’t need to do the trade until pick 7 is due, no risk.

It would be great business, even if the F1 becomes pick 1. They fast track the rebuild. Curtin would be a great investment for any side. He is going to be a top liner. Star V superstar is the only question.

The added attraction of Curtin is that he may be KPD first, but a legitimate midfielder as well as showing sufficient playing key forward. Wet Toast have “enough” developing backs, so they would have options where to deploy him if those players come on adequately. It would not be over subscribing in any position.

He is a WA boy, and as such is a great investment for a WA club. There are no top 10 WA boys on the horizon for next year at this stage Bo Allan probably the head of the class would currently only be a possible first rounder.

 

[bluesDeluxe]

Final draft order on AFL website, published 16th November, has us with 3 picks. 23, 28, 68

 

[bluesDeluxe]

2023 AFL Draft​

Adelaide: 10, 14, 20
Brisbane: 30, 39, 51, 54, 65
Carlton: 22, 28, 68
Collingwood: 19, 33, 72, 80, 84
Essendon: 9, 31, 35
Fremantle: 34, 46, 60, 63, 74
Geelong: 8, 25, 70, 75, 79, 81, 85
Gold Coast: 24, 26, 27, 32, 36, 38
Greater Western Sydney: 7, 16, 43, 59, 71
Hawthorn: 4, 44, 47, 49, 61, 62
Melbourne: 6, 11, 42, 78
North Melbourne: 2, 3, 15, 17, 18, 57
Port Adelaide: 69, 83, 87
Richmond: 29, 41, 64, 66
St Kilda: 13, 21, 40, 77, 82, 86
Sydney: 12, 45, 55, 76
West Coast: 1, 23, 37, 58, 73
Western Bulldogs: 5, 48, 50, 52, 53, 56,

 

[Stamos]

AFL phantom draft 2023: Every first round pick and bid predicted in Fox Footy mock draft

Every pick, trade and who your club’s keen on as huge first round looms: AFL Phantom Draft

www.foxsports.com.au

PICK 28: CARLTON — ARCHIE ROBERTS
Position: Medium defender
Size: 182cm
Clubs: Sandringham Dragons/Hampton Rovers
AFL player comparison: Jake Lloyd

44

Jake Lloyd

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.4

5star

K

14.4

5star

HB

9.0

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.9

4star

MG

403.9

5star

D

23.4

5star

K

14.4

5star

HB

9.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.9

3star

MG

403.9

5star

D

23.2

5star

K

13.4

5star

HB

9.8

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

357.4

5star

Foxfooty.com.au Draft Power Rankings: 25

AFL recruiters have remained split over Roberts right throughout the season, but he’s a high metres gained player who backs his kicking. His rebounding, ability to gain territory and aerobic capacity (6:08 2km time trial) is unquestionable, but scouts also have doubts over his kicking efficiency, decision-making and defensive accountability. After starring for the AFL Academy against Carlton in May, Roberts found plenty of the ball during the national carnival for Vic Metro, averaging 21 disposals and six rebound 50s while going at 75 per cent by foot. He then played three crucial finals to help the Dragons to the Talent League premiership, collecting 19, 25 and 16 disposals respectively. Some clubs see him as a possible midfielder at AFL level, despite playing off half-back for the majority of 2023.

In the mix/trade watch: The Blues could spring an opening-night surprise here, with a few left-field names in the mix. Carlton has interest in SA draft slider Ashton Moir — although some clubs believe the Blues would more likely take him in the second round — while speedy half-back/winger Matt Carroll has also been linked to the club. Other names that could be in the Blues’ mix, if they’re still on the board, include Arie Schoenmaker — a Blues supporter — and Phoenix Gothard.

If neither of them are taken with Carlton’s first-round pick, Glenelg forward Ashton Moir, quick Sandringham Dragons defender Matt Carroll and Dandenong Stingrays speedster Billy Wilson should be in the mix for the Blues’ second-round pick, along with explosive Dandenong Stingrays midfielder Cooper Simpson. Speedy, cool under pressure and clean with ball in-hand, Simpson is a big moments player that steps up when his team needs him most.

 

[Sheephead]

Oh give me Simpson please. That last line and a half above (Stamos post) is what we need.

 

[Stamos]

Oh give me Simpson please. That last line and a half above (Stamos post) is what we need.

I feel like, given who will realistically be available, I would be most excited ending up with Moir and Simpson.

 

[Sheephead]

I feel like, given who will realistically be available, I would be most excited ending up with Moir and Simpson.

I respect your opinion mate - what’s your liking for Moir. I just don’t see AFL quality. Soft.

 

[Coona Blues]

2023 AFL Draft​

Adelaide: 10, 14, 20
Brisbane: 30, 39, 51, 54, 65
Carlton: 22, 28, 68
Collingwood: 19, 33, 72, 80, 84
Essendon: 9, 31, 35
Fremantle: 34, 46, 60, 63, 74
Geelong: 8, 25, 70, 75, 79, 81, 85
Gold Coast: 24, 26, 27, 32, 36, 38
Greater Western Sydney: 7, 16, 43, 59, 71
Hawthorn: 4, 44, 47, 49, 61, 62
Melbourne: 6, 11, 42, 78
North Melbourne: 2, 3, 15, 17, 18, 57
Port Adelaide: 69, 83, 87
Richmond: 29, 41, 64, 66
St Kilda: 13, 21, 40, 77, 82, 86
Sydney: 12, 45, 55, 76
West Coast: 1, 23, 37, 58, 73
Western Bulldogs: 5, 48, 50, 52, 53, 56,

I have long held the view that we would promote another rookie (Boyd or Cincotta) with our last pick to get in front of future “pressures”. In my opinion Boyd, Cincotta and O’Keeffe are certainties to need promotion at some stage soon. Durdin, and Mirkov would not be out of that discussion either as they offer great cover.

There has been nothing to suggest we will actually do that, so we may well be planning three picks. (that may explain the Matt Carroll link). With Duffy suffering an ACL, we should have a vacant rookie spot for the SSP period already.

 

[Coona Blues]

I feel like, given who will realistically be available, I would be most excited ending up with Moir and Simpson.

100%. My read too taking personal preferences and “rumours”.

The only other I have, for needs is a Zakostelsky key position type, but no links around. There are some superb ruck prospects around our mark, but they would be surplus to needs with O’Keeffe showing sufficient promise.

There are some decent players around our range, and not many would be “wrong”, but a dashing mid with breakaway speed who is somewhat dual sided and a quality slider like Moir who can be potent deep forward, as well as offering “next level” dual sided disposal are most attractive. I was not high on Moir early after his fall from grace, but doing multiple “Phantoms”, when push came to shove, on analysis he fits our need profile best of the candidates in the range.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

AFL phantom draft 2023: Every first round pick and bid predicted in Fox Footy mock draft

Every pick, trade and who your club’s keen on as huge first round looms: AFL Phantom Draft

www.foxsports.com.au

Not the 'played well against Carlton' logic.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I have long held the view that we would promote another rookie (Boyd or Cincotta) with our last pick to get in front of future “pressures”. In my opinion Boyd, Cincotta and O’Keeffe are certainties to need promotion at some stage soon. Durdin, and Mirkov would not be out of that discussion either as they offer great cover.

There has been nothing to suggest we will actually do that, so we may well be planning three picks. (that may explain the Matt Carroll link). With Duffy suffering an ACL, we should have a vacant rookie spot for the SSP period already.

We will want to save as many for promotion next year as possible as it allows us to take extra picks into the draft for the Camporeale twins (more senior list spots = more picks = easier to match bids)

 

[macky99]

I feel like, given who will realistically be available, I would be most excited ending up with Moir and Simpson.

Agree Austin seems likely to go with a Simpson or Archie Roberts type as a solid option and Moir is worth the risk, could be a gun or also a bust, certainly has some real natural talent.

 

[AT97]

Can Archie Roberts run through the midfield?

 

[Stamos]

I respect your opinion mate - what’s your liking for Moir. I just don’t see AFL quality. Soft.

I'm not a judge of underage talent in any way. I don't even watch the highlights.

Moir's attributes that I like is that he would be an elite kicking x-factor medium forward.
If Agresta and Austin are willing to take a risk on his flaws over the last season, that's good enough for me.

 

[Stamos]

With Duffy suffering an ACL, we should have a vacant rookie spot for the SSP period already.

He can't go on the Inactive list yet, so we would only have the extra spot currently if we haven't listed him at all.

I'm just nt sure if that 3rd pick listed (currently #68) is held for us to elevate Cottrell, or if we haven't listed Duffy and we actually have 3 list spots available.

 

[Sheephead]

I'm not a judge of underage talent in any way. I don't even watch the highlights.

Moir's attributes that I like is that he would be an elite kicking x-factor medium forward.
If Agresta and Austin are willing to take a risk on his flaws over the last season, that's good enough for me.

Moir is a bit like Jack Martin and Bobby Hill (and Lemmey) i suppose in that they were hyped as in the U16 age bracket but dropped off a bit in 18’s. Archer Reid is similar too, and if we go by skill set, Archer is top level. We certainly could use better delivery by foot all over the park.

 

[HBF]

I'll go with whoever Arr0w suggests. Bloke knows his stuff and doesn't get many wrong.

 

[Blue__Balls]

melbourne have a lot of eggs in the May, Gawn basket at 32 next year and viney, petracca, lever all 28 next year.

if they're serious about topping up to win again with this group it has to be in the next 24 months imo and 2024 top draft pick probably wont help that

Neither will a 2023 pick, to be honest.

I could see them planning on a mini rebuild/rejuvenation in the coming years, so if they're not overly enamoured with this draft crop then rolling their first back a year is a good result.

 

[Sheephead]

Was always a fan of Wil Dawson, thought he moved well as a KPD and was very mobile. That probably had something to do with him growing 20cm in the last two years. Played as a mid/med Fwd as a younger kid. Has the tank and nous to be a very solid KP option.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Checked out Matt Carroll on the back of the HS linking us.

Tidy player, good defensive application, not a stat hoarder but can make possession hurt.

I'd still say he's a third rounder or beyond

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Arr0w]

I'll go with whoever Arr0w suggests. Bloke knows his stuff and doesn't get many wrong.

Good to see you HBF