Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[Blue__Balls]

How does Simpson compare to Clay Hall and/or Josh Freijah whom others have advocated for?

Freijah is more wing than mid.

Hall is what you'd probably class a typical "balanced mid". Good on the inside, OK on the outside, not necessarily great at going from one to the other. I reckon he'd be somewhat comparable to Cerra, though perhaps less effective by foot. Andrew Brayshaw maybe a good comparison?

Simpson is more inside mid with capacity to push forward and hit the scoreboard. Think Zac Butters, Tim Kelly, maybe Jack Sinclair at a stretch (he's probably more outside mid though) - the more dynamic inside-leaning mids with the ability to get separation and gain ground before disposing of the ball.

They're "ceiling" type names. Not suggesting he'd be gauranteed to make that level, but those are the types that I think you'd be hoping to emulate if he comes on.

 

[ferrisb]

Did an interesting piece of analysis earlier (clearly too much time on my hands).

Looked at the top 10 players (20 for onballers) in each role in the league and where they were taken in the draft. Themes are pretty clear. If you want top mids, particuarly mid-forwards you need to take them in the 1st round if not top 10. Gun key forwards unlikely to be found outside the 1st round either. Running defenders and small / hybrid forwards you can get anywhere, though some good ones do go early. Wingers, rucks, key defenders, and intercepting defenders more often than not get taken later. You can argue with the names and categories, but themes are the same even if you swap them around.

I'd be interested to know how much clubs consider this type of historical information when going about their list builds. Obviously, there are exceptions (e.g. Lachie Neale) but you'd think list managers would factor in the odds when working out how to use picks. For example, even though we need an explosive mid-forward, Austin would know we are unlikely to get one that turns out with a pick in the 20s, so he focuses elsewhere or tries to get an earlier pick.


Onballers / Mid-Fwds
Dawson (56), Neale (58), Cripps (13), Walsh (1), N.Daicos (4), DeGoey (5), Merrett (26), Serong (8), Brayshaw (2), Miller (29) , Kelly (2), Green (9), Coniglio (2), Oliver (Pick 4), Petracca (2), Rozee (5), Butters (12), McLuggage (3), Bontompelli (4), Martin (4)

Wingers
Acres (19), Docherty (12), J.Daicos (57), Sidebottom (11), N.Martin (Rookie), Holmes (20), Amon (68), Langdon (54), Hunter (49), Wood (41),

Running Defenders
Quaynor (13), Coleman (37), Newman (35), Saad (25), Whitfield (1), Sinclair (Rookie), Dale (45), Blakey (10), Houston (Rookie), H.Young (7)

Intercepting Defenders
Howe (33), Maynard (30), Ridley (22), Ryan (66), Stewart (40), Sicily (56), Lever (14), Vlaustin (9), Grimes (Rookie), J.McGovern (44), Wilkie (Rookie)

Key Defenders
Andrews (61), Weitering (1), Moore (9), Cox (41), Collins (55), Ballard (42), Taylor (28), May (Zone), Barrass (43), Jones (32)

Key Forwards
Walker (Zone), Daniher (10), Curnow (12), Cameron (Zone), B.King (6), N.Larkey (73), T.Lynch (11), M.King (4), Naughton (9), Hawkins (Old FS System – Would have been 1 or 2)

Hybrid Forwards / Small Forwards
Cameron (Rookie), Greene (11), Fritch (31), Breust (Rookie), Elliot (Zone), Papley (Rookie), Pickett (12), Rankine (3), Bolton (29), Stengle (Rookie)

Rucks
Darcy (38), Witts (67), Briggs (34), Gawn (34), Goldstein (37), Marshall (Rookie), Grundy (18), English (19), O’Brien (Rookie), Nankervis (35)

Love this. Thanks for putting in the work.

I did similar analysis years ago using AA teams as my sample data.

Rucks, followed by small forwards and key defenders had the highest representation from late ND/rookie drafted players.

If you had picks 5 and 55, (generally speaking) you're better off picking up a mid at 5 and a KPD/ruck/small forward with your late pick. There's an OK chance the late pick establishes a respectable AFL career. But if you pick a mid at 55, there's almost no chance they make it.

 

[bradfisher14]

Twomey not doing a Phantom this year I suppose given the draft is on Monday?

Out on Saturday.

 

[Juice030103]

Archie Roberts from what I’ve read sounds similar to boyd

 

[Stamos]

https://archive.md/x4qkJ

Hun saying Curtin might last to 7 (GWS) and Eagles would trade F1 to get that pick.

 

[bradfisher14]

https://archive.md/x4qkJ

Hun saying Curtin might last to 7 (GWS) and Eagles would trade F1 to get that pick.

Personally reckon North/Hawks/Dees would all be crazy not to select him.

 

[Michael Jezz]

Listening to Kinnear Beatson interview

Effectively said hard to pick and 20-30 could be better than those picked 10-20.
Also said they have analysed previous drafts and sides that have picked need over best player available have generally failed.
Interesting discussion.

I must admit looking at draftees recently as an amateur follower they are very hard to split

If we keep our picks names like Simpson Moir DeMattia Jiath Edwards etc I would be very happy with

My amateur view, for the reason above, we should go in the direction of cooper simpson, archie roberts, mitch edwards because although they are not the mercurial type we are looking forward they look 100 gamers and still fill needs.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Archie Roberts from what I’ve read sounds similar to boyd

Similar. Probably not quite as good kicking penetration (still a very good kick) but a more natural accumulator and carries the ball more.

 

[BlueTongue]

Twomey not doing a Phantom this year I suppose given the draft is on Monday?

Phantom Form Guide: Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' November ranking

 

[Stamos]

Phantom Form Guide: Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' November ranking

That's not his Phantom Draft, which will be released tomorrow.

 

[AT97]

That's not his Phantom Draft, which will be released tomorrow.

Mike Agresta is on Twomey’s afl draft show on Sunday.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

https://archive.md/x4qkJ

Hun saying Curtin might last to 7 (GWS) and Eagles would trade F1 to get that pick.

Caruso will be doing cartwheels

 

[bradfisher14]

My amateur view, for the reason above, we should go in the direction of cooper simpson, archie roberts, mitch edwards because although they are not the mercurial type we are looking forward they look 100 gamers and still fill needs.

One mercurial and one banker would be nice.

Would be very interesting if we went for two mercurial types in the national draft. Then we could find some midfield depth with our SSP.

 

[Wickzki]

That's not his Phantom Draft, which will be released tomorrow.

Nobody calling it the phantom draft just his phantom form guide. The word phantom in his story is unnecessary and should just be draft guide but it's there for the SEO

 

[tragic]

This is from the Herald Sun..Anyone heard of this guy?

 

[Coona Blues]

This is from the Herald Sun..Anyone heard of this guy?


View attachment 1854776

Yeah played late in champs. Touted as rebounding leftie. His footy is solid, draftable rounded defender. I take a particular interest in the lefties, but his disposal was not up to scratch for mine when considering a possible rebounder. The sort you would take as a rookie for mine, in the hope he sharpens his skills. Good size and “combative”. A bit to work with, but not a late first/early second rounder.

 

[tragic]

Yeah played late in champs. Touted as rebounding leftie. His footy is solid, draftable rounded defender. I take a particular interest in the lefties, but his disposal was not up to scratch for mine when considering a possible rebounder. The sort you would take as a rookie for mine, in the hope he sharpens his skills. Good size and “combative”. A but to work with, but not a late first/early second rounder.

Thanks...Hopefully Cal Twomey has some better news for us tomorrow

 

[marcmurphy3]

This is from the Herald Sun..Anyone heard of this guy?


View attachment 1854776

Odd pick. Never linked to us before and in fact not been linked to a pick in the 1st 2 rounds.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Odd pick. Never linked to us before and in fact not been linked to a pick in the 1st 2 rounds.

Balanced medium defender who can be used in rebounding and defensive roles.

According to rookie me he defends well and is quick but struggles with accumulation and kicking under pressure

Averaged 10 possessions a game in nab league and 13 for metro.

Listed as a late pick / rookie

Would be a seriously odd pick in the 1st round based on that.

 

[Benaly28]

This is from the Herald Sun..Anyone heard of this guy?


View attachment 1854776

No but he looks like he just finished grade 6!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[agro]

He might be an upgrade on Lochie O’Brien.

 

[marcmurphy3]

He might be an upgrade on Lochie O’Brien.

Doesn't even play the same position.

 

[DangerousD]

https://archive.md/x4qkJ

Hun saying Curtin might last to 7 (GWS) and Eagles would trade F1 to get that pick.

Sounds crazy, If WC use a F1 to get 7, wouldn’t another club just threaten to pick him to get something out of WC? Pick 7 doesn’t seem high enough for WC future 1st.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Sounds crazy, If WC use a F1 to get 7, wouldn’t another club just threaten to pick him to get something out of WC? Pick 7 doesn’t seem high enough for WC future 1st.

I think the pick number is irrelevent as it doesn't change how WC rate Curtin. It's about whether they think he is worth losing pick 1-3 in next year's draft.

It sounds like the teams with pick 1 to 6 have no interest in trading, even for Eagles F1.

Surprised Melbourne wouldn't given they have another first rounder and don't desperately need a top pick but maybe they want to get someone now that can help them win a flag next year.

 

[DangerousD]

I think the pick number is irrelevent as it doesn't change how WC rate Curtin. It's about whether they think he is worth losing pick 1-3 in next year's draft.

It sounds like the teams with pick 1 to 6 have no interest in trading, even for Eagles F1.

Surprised Melbourne wouldn't given they have another first rounder and don't desperately need a top pick but maybe they want to get someone now that can help them win a flag next year.

I thought Curtain wouldn’t last until 7, pretty risky banking on him sliding.