Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[marcmurphy3]

Not meaning to embarrass or unveil, but are you draft watcher, Chris Cavanagh, marcmurphy3? Otherwise I think youre popular or get the same info.

Haha no but close. I was the one who asked the question hence why I posted the answer.

 

[Sector 7G]

I don't get the obsession on this board with trading our F1. Particularly for a minor pick upgrade in a poor draft.

For all we know we have a slightly off year and end up with pick 8-12. Ben Campo could easily be a late 1st / 2nd rounder. Plenty of scenarios where we get to use that pick before a bid.

The Campo's are not Daicos / Ashcroft. The reason their clubs could make concrete plans around them a year ahead was because they were guaranteed top 3 picks.

Plus the AFL are reviewing the bidding system. We may need that pick to get both Campos depending on what changes they make. Moving the pick also limits our flexibility in terms of any trade targets.

I'm not ruling out trading F1 but if we do we shouldn't unless we actually get something really good.

Pies traded out their first round pick not thinking it would be so low for a handful of 2nd rounders and missed out on Finn Callahan. Better to trade the pick out when you know the lay of the land with regard to picks and where FS will fall.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Let’s say we’ve got one of those teen picks from North - who would you draft?

BTW - I’m not sure if there are players in that range that I would give up the flexibility of trading for next year without our F1

If talk around Roberts, Edwards, Lual etc. Is accurate, we'd be looking at those types. Think Leake will be gone, maybe Wilson or Windsor, but we don't need the type. Tholstrup is a fav of some but I haven't heard a connection.

Regarding our list needs, the most obv spot for a draftee right now is running defender, with Newman, Doc, Saad and Williams all on the older side.

We have talented youth in the forward, and mid talent emerges consistently each draft year.

Ruck draftees aren't a good target for us, worst case scenario we can get a senior guy as a free agent or mid season pick up, but Hudson and Mirkov is plenty of list spots.

Tall targets are not super important for me, our top talent forward and back is great and mid career. Rookie a prospect

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

I like Billy Wilson HBF who has done some decent time in the middle in the latter part of the season. Just not convinced we are looking for a rebounding defender as a priority.

We could do worse....local boy from down this way - I know his family, wonderful people.

He'd more than likely be available with our second pick if we're looking for a rebounding defender/mid.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

If talk around Roberts, Edwards, Lual etc. Is accurate, we'd be looking at those types. Think Leake will be gone, maybe Wilson or Windsor, but we don't need the type. Tholstrup is a fav of some but I haven't heard a connection.

Regarding our list needs, the most obv spot for a draftee right now is running defender, with Newman, Doc, Saad and Williams all on the older side.

We have talented youth in the forward, and mid talent emerges consistently each draft year.

Ruck draftees aren't a good target for us, worst case scenario we can get a senior guy as a free agent or mid season pick up, but Hudson and Mirkov is plenty of list spots.

Tall targets are not super important for me, our top talent forward and back is great and mid career. Rookie a prospect

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Do we? Right now its the biggest hole on our list

 

[Coona Blues]

Might be a bit early to call that ‘proof’.

I’d be surprised if we’re after a running defender as a priority, but I’d be waiting until after the draft to be calling this out as wrong.

What is the fun in that? I can be conservative, but happy to put up or shut up on some fronts.

 

[The Bighouse]

Haha no but close. I was the one who asked the question hence why I posted the answer.

Just hence, not hence why. Journalism school is slipping.

 

[Coona Blues]

I guess you have a more neutral view on Mirkov than me.

Pitto remains a limited ruck, in terms of around the ground influence and O'Keeffe - way too early to call, but rucks aren't getting any shorter.

Noting Edwards has played forward a bit too - with success.

I really like the ruck “class” in this draft.

Read as a ruck/swingman is going to be great for the Suns.

Edwards, Green and Goad are definitely AFL quality with differing traits. All things equal, all would struggle to get past the second round.

Plenty of clubs are reluctant do invest in drafting project rucks, but the above should be categorised as developing, not project.

With list restrictions it is hard to imagine the club investing in another young ruck, even if Mirkov is counted out.

TDK and Pitto may be used in tandem, or Pitto could find himself in the twos with JSOS or others supporting TDK in the ones. O’Keeffe is in for another development year, as is Lemmey as a second ruck possibility. Young can play ruck if required and big Sam Durdin played plenty of ruck underage and a few games at Norf.

I would not be against grabbing one of the young guns, but surely there are other priorities.

 

[Wickzki]

Proof that a great many professed “Draft Experts” are not what they claim to be.

Wouldn't shock me if they did. They're looking at Saad and Newman aging, Docherty too who they've been playing out of the midfield. Internally the club might not be as sold on Boyd and Cincotta long-term as what many are here. They may view Cowan as the only real youthful player we have in that role moving forward. If we're taking two players in the draft I can certainly see the possibility that we add some dash from the backline with one of those selections.

Our other key youth seem to be all mids and forward of the ball types.

I agree we need to look long-term for another key position defender but if we don't like what's likely to be available to us and our draft hand is going towards the Campos next year then we msg be looking at 2025 before that solution can be found or we hit the trade table to fill it with more maturity than a kid when the time is right.

Adding a young small to mid sized defender seems perfectly acceptable to me if it's best available.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Do we? Right now its the biggest hole on our list

Will drafting an 18yo in the second round address that?

Or is it just another guy at the Durdin/Motlop level?

Papley, Breust and Cameron were rookie draftees, Liam Ryan wasn't taken until he was 21.

Junior Rioli was a third rounder, Jamie Elliot was an overager.

Small forwards are almost always boom or bust because they are 1 position players. The higher end draftees all have midfield potential

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Will drafting an 18yo in the second round address that?

Or is it just another guy at the Durdin/Motlop level?

Papley, Breust and Cameron were rookie draftees, Liam Ryan wasn't taken until he was 21.

Junior Rioli was a third rounder, Jamie Elliot was an overager.

Small forwards are almost always boom or bust because they are 1 position players. The higher end draftees all have midfield potential

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Similar things were said last year about our wing stocks and Hollands as a pick. Right now our biggest hole is small/mid sized forwards and imo if theres still players on the board who can address that then we shouldn't be worrying about replacing our AA level half backs.

Competent small forwards have arguably never been more valuable to teams and ours are lacking compared to the rest of the top 8.

 

[JuddgementDay]

If talk around Roberts, Edwards, Lual etc. Is accurate, we'd be looking at those types. Think Leake will be gone, maybe Wilson or Windsor, but we don't need the type. Tholstrup is a fav of some but I haven't heard a connection.

Regarding our list needs, the most obv spot for a draftee right now is running defender, with Newman, Doc, Saad and Williams all on the older side.

We have talented youth in the forward, and mid talent emerges consistently each draft year.

Ruck draftees aren't a good target for us, worst case scenario we can get a senior guy as a free agent or mid season pick up, but Hudson and Mirkov is plenty of list spots.

Tall targets are not super important for me, our top talent forward and back is great and mid career. Rookie a prospect

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

“Roberts, Edwards, Lual” wouldn’t/ shouldn’t need a F1 trade. Tholstrup maybe - but, is he a significant difference to the other three?

I still can’t see the value in trading up to say #17 from North with of F1. I would prefer to keep F1

 

[Coona Blues]

Wouldn't shock me if they did. They're looking at Saad and Newman aging, Docherty too who they've been playing out of the midfield. Internally the club might not be as sold on Boyd and Cincotta long-term as what many are here. They may view Cowan as the only real youthful player we have in that role moving forward. If we're taking two players in the draft I can certainly see the possibility that we add some dash from the backline with one of those selections.

Our other key youth seem to be all mids and forward of the ball types.

I agree we need to look long-term for another key position defender but if we don't like what's likely to be available to us and our draft hand is going towards the Campos next year then we msg be looking at 2025 before that solution can be found or we hit the trade table to fill it with more maturity than a kid when the time is right.

Adding a young small to mid sized defender seems perfectly acceptable to me if it's best available.

I am all for generation next, but on some fronts, we are there too early. Binns and Cowan are deserving of game time, yet if our wingers and small/medium defenders stay fit they will struggle for more than cameos.

We are in a premiership window, there won’t be many of our thirtyish players looking to retire early. We are very much in danger of losing Newman, Saad, Williams and Docherty in a very tight window, which is three, maybe four years away. Cincotta looks a keeper, Cowan all but guaranteed of a good to great future and Boyd at least OK (sorry not more glowing for his fan club on here). Realistically Newman would be the closest of our smaller defenders to retirement, yet he just completed a career best season where he was runner up in our B&F. Not too many quality youngsters are overseen on serving three year apprenticeships these days. With adequate, arguably more than adequate “second stringers” with five years or more in front of them, I am not focussed on the next generation yet, but do grant it could come quickly if we are unfortunate.

We are all but tied in to the Camporeale boys next year, who both project as likely candidates to at least kick off their careers from half back. George Hewett a real chance of finishing off his career in the backline if needed and we are upskilling any young mids.

I would not be surprised if the coaching group have faith in our young small forwards,(Durdin and Motlop) but the acquisition of Orazio Fantasia suggests some concerns in that area. He is of almost the same vintage as our aging defenders, so is not a long term throw at the stumps. The modus operandi of our recruiting seems to be multiple
investments in areas of need. Thinking that is a big focus.

I am banking on a forward option, a young KPD or a developing mid to head our want list. The second named in that article, Billy Wilson would be a good each way investment, should we have an eye to our defensive progression. He has played predominantly HBF, but has shown good signs in the midfield in the latter part of the year.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Similar things were said last year about our wing stocks and Hollands as a pick. Right now our biggest hole is small/mid sized forwards and imo if theres still players on the board who can address that then we shouldn't be worrying about replacing our AA level half backs.

Competent small forwards have arguably never been more valuable to teams and ours are lacking compared to the rest of the top 8.

We're talking about different things here.

Wings often have versatility and can play multiple positions.

No small or medium forward is going to have a year 1 impact greater than Durdin or Motlop.

And we just brought in mature talent (Hollands, Fantasia) in these positions .

I'm not against drafting a forward, but not necessarily with our first pick

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Wickzki]

Similar things were said last year about our wing stocks and Hollands as a pick. Right now our biggest hole is small/mid sized forwards and imo if theres still players on the board who can address that then we shouldn't be worrying about replacing our AA level half backs.

Competent small forwards have arguably never been more valuable to teams and ours are lacking compared to the rest of the top 8.

We need readymade who will impact in finals. We can't afford to wait 3 or 4 years before they're ready (look how long it took Bobby Hill). For better or worse unless someone becomes available we're not upgrading that position this year by adding a kid. Regardless, we've now added Hollands and Fantasia who are varying degrees of likely to add as mucb as Durdin and (edit; Motlop)
.

I am banking on a forward option, a young KPD or a developing mid to head our want list. The second named in that article, Billy Wilson would be a good each way investment, should we have an eye to our defensive progression. He has played predominantly HBF, but has shown good signs in the midfield in the latter part of the year.

We added Elijah to play fwd/mid.

We both agree we need our next gen KPD to be groomed behind Weiters, McGovern, Durdin and Kemp but we may not rate the draft crop as being able to do that.

We have our next gen KPF but could add to that.

We have the opportunity to add to Cowan this year and I won't be surprised if we do it. It may not be our most pressing need but could quickly become one. At 28+ it often only takes one injury to cruel a career.

Would take best available X2 in the draft and if one of those happened to be a running defender then it wouldn't be the worst investment.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

We're talking about different things here.

Wings often have versatility and can play multiple positions.

No small or medium forward is going to have a year 1 impact greater than Durdin or Motlop.

And we just brought in mature talent (Hollands, Fantasia) in these positions .

I'm not against drafting a forward, but not necessarily with our first pick

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Jaidyn Stephenson kicked 39 goals in his first year of AFL and was a key part of the Pies making it to the GF. Small forwards are renowned for coming in and having an impact early on when there's a functioning team around them.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

We need readymade who will impact in finals. We can't afford to wait 3 or 4 years before they're ready (look how long it took Bobby Hill). For better or worse unless someone becomes available we're not upgrading that position this year by adding a kid. Regardless, we've now added Hollands and Fantasia who are varying degrees of likely to add as mucb as Durdin and Hollands.

We should be looking at players who can impact within the next 1-3 years to align with our window. Watson and Collard imo will both do that in an area we need filled, others I'm not as sold on but there's definitely talented prospects available.

If we pick up a half back or a mid theres little chance they'd even get a game for the next 2-3 years with the players we already have there.

Unless we're targeting a proven small/mid sized fwd via free agency in 2024 and we're confident we can get one imo we should be targeting one with our first pick this draft.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Jaidyn Stephenson kicked 39 goals in his first year of AFL and was a key part of the Pies making it to the GF. Small forwards are renowned for coming in and having an impact early on when there's a functioning team around them.

Stephenson was taken top 5.

We're not getting Watson or any other talent who will have that impact.

Small forwards who suddenly come in and impact are usually in their 3rd year or were drafted older.

Which 18yo has had this impact taken outside the top 15?

Pickett, D. Rioli, Higgins and Weightmen were all high picks

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[JuddgementDay]

Now that we’ve got Orazio, is Mannagh in the discussions for our pick #28?

IMO we should go for best available on both our picks

 

[teagueyubeauty]

“Roberts, Edwards, Lual” wouldn’t/ shouldn’t need a F1 trade. Tholstrup maybe - but, is he a significant difference to the other three?

I still can’t see the value in trading up to say #17 from North with of F1. I would prefer to keep F1

Especially when we were there already and inexplicably gave it up in trade for Fisher

I’ll be livid if that happens, only use F1 to get into top 10


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[BigFrizz36]

Especially when we were there already and inexplicably gave it up in trade for Fisher

I’ll be livid if that happens, only use F1 to get into top 10


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Does inexplicably now mean "found a way to meet a team half way to come to a recommended valuation"?

As in "I traded my car in with the dealer and inexplicably got the amount that I was hoping that it was worth,"

 

[Coops93]

Plus the AFL are reviewing the bidding system. We may need that pick to get both Campos depending on what changes they make. Moving the pick also limits our flexibility in terms of any trade targets.

I would be surprised if any changes would take effect in the 2024 draft given preparations for that draft are made the year before, i.e. how teams start stockpiling future picks in this draft.

To avoid nuking teams trade period strategy by changing the rules after the the team has put in plans for 2024 they'd likely take effect for the 2025 draft.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Stephenson was taken top 5.

We're not getting Watson or any other talent who will have that impact.

Small forwards who suddenly come in and impact are usually in their 3rd year or were drafted older.

Which 18yo has had this impact taken outside the top 15?

Pickett, D. Rioli, Higgins and Weightmen were all high picks

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

What would you suggest we do to fix it then?

 

[Coops93]

Wouldn't shock me if they did. They're looking at Saad and Newman aging, Docherty too who they've been playing out of the midfield. Internally the club might not be as sold on Boyd and Cincotta long-term as what many are here. They may view Cowan as the only real youthful player we have in that role moving forward. If we're taking two players in the draft I can certainly see the possibility that we add some dash from the backline with one of those selections.

It's perhaps something we don't like to think about but our key players have sneakily snuck up in age. Like you say, Doc, Newman & Saad are all at over 30 for the 2024 season, their draft replacements absolutely should be looked at sharpish. Boyd and Cinc are also perhaps older than some would expect, while not old at all they're definitely mature aged and over 25 so you have to think about how much more development there really is there.

Speed has been talked about as one of our weaknesses even with those guys in the team so targeting some young speedy outside players shouldn't really be a surprise, particularly off half back.

 

[Wickzki]

What would you suggest we do to fix it then?

Personally, if the recruiters like Mannagb I'd trade up and get a later pick back. Draft best available with the first pick and get the readymade 26 year old later in the draft.

It's about the only way you're going to find a day one contributor from the draft.

Alternative is to trade down with the second pick and bank points for next year.

Mute point if they don't believe he's at the level.