Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Yeah..we have to win our last 2 but if we do statistically we are likely to finish 8th at worst unless you get crazy results like st kilda winning away or ess beating collingwood.
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- Thread starter allrighty
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Yeah..we have to win our last 2 but if we do statistically we are likely to finish 8th at worst unless you get crazy results like st kilda winning away or ess beating collingwood.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Top 4 is more open now..melb could finish 3rd or 4th and we might not have to travel in 2nd week (if we get that far).
we are 23 to 1 and are very unlikely to make it.
catempire
Premium Platinum
I think there are four key games left for the season which will decide the makeup of the bottom half of the eight:
- St Kilda v Geelong (to simplify everything that has been said anywhere, winner is a very good chance to make it)
- Crows v Swans (again, winner a great chance to make it)
- Geelong v Bulldogs (Dogs probably secure a spot anyway if they beat Hawthorn as they have Eagles next week. They may not have much to play for!)
- Swans v Dees. If Swans lose to Crows they will have to win this to make it.
That’s it. I don’t think any other game matters. Any other game mattering would be a big upset (eg. Giants beating Blues)
- St Kilda v Geelong (to simplify everything that has been said anywhere, winner is a very good chance to make it)
- Crows v Swans (again, winner a great chance to make it)
- Geelong v Bulldogs (Dogs probably secure a spot anyway if they beat Hawthorn as they have Eagles next week. They may not have much to play for!)
- Swans v Dees. If Swans lose to Crows they will have to win this to make it.
That’s it. I don’t think any other game matters. Any other game mattering would be a big upset (eg. Giants beating Blues)
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
We are very likely to make it.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Agree on the other 3 but disagree on swans vs crows. If crows win they still cant make it (assuming we get to 12.5 wins).
As with syd they have to win both to get in probably. If they go 1-1 they will be same points as us but less %. In that scenario we could be 7th and them 8th but only if the giants and stk to fall out (which is possible). In that sense syd need gws and ess to keep losing.
In that sense the gws vs port game today is big as is gws vs carlton.
paying $2.40 for us to make the 8.
the market says we are more unlikely.
fingers crossed.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Who do you have finishing ahead of us? If the 6-8 teams lose against the teams above them we are in (as this knocks ess stk and gws out) providing we win our last 2. Saints are in poor form and we have a great record vs the dogs. Id say its more likely than not.
catempire
Premium Platinum
I have us finishing 7th too. Assuming we win, and the higher ladder positions win, we'll play the Doggies back to back in order to go back to back.
Only issue I see is us losing some very winnable games.
The story of 2023.
Only issue I see is us losing some very winnable games.
The story of 2023.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Ah ok i thought you had the crows making it instead of us which they cant (hence my comment if we get to 12.5 wins they cant knock us out). Yes its possible we could both make it if gws and stk only win once more (saints i dont think get past 12 wins giants im not sure about their next 2 games are coin flips as port is in poor form).
Basically if we win the last 2 we mathematically cannot miss out unless either stk syd or ess beat a top 4 team or the giants beat port or carlton away from home.
If it pans out how you have it we get the dogs at the G (where they dont play much) and melb in week 2 at the G. Id take that.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
We will have to wait til the last game of the last round to know if we are in as the giants and syd could knock us out if they both win on the sunday. But i think thats unlikely i think we will sneak in.
With the injuries we keep copping and our form this year we are definitely not a cert to win our last 2 games
I personally think we will only win 1 of the next 2.
Unsure which one though.
Vdubs
Hall of Famer
Everybody is underrating Swans. They are back. Should make top 8, should win next 2, yes including v Demons
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
They are decent but adel are much better at home (look at their home record this year) and melb will have everything to play for (win gets top 2 and means they dont have to travel to port).
I dont see sydney winning both. Even if they do syd and us will both make it and adel will miss out then (so we are still 8th at worst it knocks adel out not us).
Basically if we win out we wont miss out unless ess win out (which is very unlikely) or unless gws win on the road which i think is possible but not likely. Unless sydney and either gws or ess get to 52 poinrs we will make it.
catempire
Premium Platinum
Weirdly, Swans are $1.62 to make the 8 but are $2.39 to beat Adelaide and will be no better than $2.00 to beat Melbourne. They need to win both to make it.
fpm84
Brownlow Medallist
So, one of Bulldogs or Saints losing today would be a nice bonus?
Bulldogs have the bye aka WCE next week but it’s not beyond the realm of possibility they could lose to the in-form Hawks in Tassie today and us in rd 24.
If Richmond are ‘on’ today, I think there’s a chance St K lose their last three. Rd24 v Lions away is a guarantee.
Bulldogs have the bye aka WCE next week but it’s not beyond the realm of possibility they could lose to the in-form Hawks in Tassie today and us in rd 24.
If Richmond are ‘on’ today, I think there’s a chance St K lose their last three. Rd24 v Lions away is a guarantee.
I’d rather not make finals than just limp in. I can’t see us doing much damage this year anyway. Not saying we should just roll over but even the most one eyed supporter would have to admit it would take an epic run to go deep from here with current form and injuries.
Vdubs
Hall of Famer
When our destiny was in our own hands, we stuffed up (Freo).
Now we rely on other games as well as having to win our last 2 games- seems unlikely to me that we make the 8.
And I doubt all year we have been capable of playing 4 pressure quarters of footy with the 22 we have, which is so different to last year. Injuries of course, but there's something else- Carlton now 7 wins in a row despite significant injuries
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Yeah bulldogs losing would be a bonus but what we really want is the saints to lose today bc i dont think they will win round 24 so it would knock them out.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Who do you think will take 7th and 8th if you have us missing?
As catempire said if all the favourites win then 12.5 wins clearly gets us in.
Vdubs
Hall of Famer
I'm waiting until our Saints game- not as confident that we will win that at Marvel- and Saints play today. If they beat Tigers, it'll be a big statement.
Ross Lyon would love to beat the reigning premiers, like all teams do, but people are writing off the Saints as if their season is over.
catempire
Premium Platinum
I do think the Saints game is a massive danger game for us, as poor as they have been.
We probably lose Stanley so will have a patchwork ruck setup making our midfield even less productive than it has been. We get Hawkins back at least. But this is the kind of game we have lost all season.
We probably lose Stanley so will have a patchwork ruck setup making our midfield even less productive than it has been. We get Hawkins back at least. But this is the kind of game we have lost all season.
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