Preview 2023 National Draft Preview Thread [currently: #2, #14 (PA), #19 (PP) #40, #52, #60]

[roos_fanatic08]

I'm not sure trading our F1, even for Watson (who I don't think will be available at GC pick anyway) is a good idea.

Trading Pick 1-3 for Pick 6/7 is a surefire way of starting to dilute your rebuild for a quick sugar hit.

There's too many variables that can pop up in a year.

There's nothing to gain and pretty much everything to lose.

It's not just at the draft, but also the trade table we could lose flexibility.

We have no idea who could be available in 12 months time and we might need 1 or 2 high end picks to attain them.

I'd only be open to it if Flanders was also attached to it, which I don't think GC will do.


We are getting a big intake of talent where I think we can afford to keep our powder dry next year. Every single year we have proposed this, every single year it would have been a complete disaster 12 months down the line.

In 2021 people were advocating trading it so we could take Gibcus or Amiss. Well we would have cost ourselves the #1 pick and one of Sheezel and Wardlaw.




The extra year of development is a bit a crock this time of year.

It's meaningless if the younger player is simply a much better prospect.

I'm not saying that about Watson, who I think will be gone by GC pick, but it's irrelevant really.

Most people wanted to trade our F1 last year for Tsatas or Phillipou. Well we would have traded Harley Reid for them and the additional year of development means precisely SFA.

Totally agree. I'd be wanting a pretty bloody good deal if we were to trade our future first for a pick in this years draft.

As you so rightly mentioned, the thing that people don't consider is how trading a future F1 may impact our ability to trade. What happens if Ben King nominated us next year and we need a First round and a future F1 to get it done...we'd already be behind the 8 ball.

Only have to look at how we traded out of the 2019 national draft to see how playing games can back fire.

 

[Sphynx]

If we're not confident Watson is there at the GC pick, that's a fine reason to not offer up F1.

But if we are confident, we'd be getting the most skilful player in the 2023 draft, an athletic freak who services a position of critical need for us, so I wouldn't say there's nothing to gain.

You gain Watson of course.

Just like you gain Gibcus over Wardlaw if we did that trade then.

Drafts change dramatically in 12 months.

Watson is probably my favourite draft prospect just about ever, but anyone that can say they know definitively that the top 2-3 of next years draft aren't at least a % possibility of being significantly better than him are talking complete bullshit.

This time last year, 2022 was viewed as a weak top 10 with 2023 being viewed as an upcoming super draft.

12 months later, 2022's top 10 is being viewed as one of the strongest of all time and 2023 being rather shallow outside of the top 7.


Things change, players grow, get fitter, stronger, find their games. Talls can emerge, or drop off completely.

Syd Draper could be Nick Daicos in 12 months.

There might be the next Jed Walter or Aaron Cadman that is just a middling prospect at this point.

When you are trading the absolute cream future picks of the draft (top 4), you are playing with absolute fire....

I absolutely love Watson, but he's not a #1 pick. Until things change, I'm considering any of our F1's as #1 picks.

If I trade our F1, I want something of applicable value to a #1 pick, not Pick 6 in a straight up trade.

 

[My Left Foote]

I'm not sure trading our F1, even for Watson (who I don't think will be available at GC pick anyway) is a good idea. Trading Pick 1-3 for Pick 6/7 is a surefire way of starting to dilute your rebuild for a quick sugar hit. There's too many variables that can pop up in a year.There's nothing to gain and pretty much everything to lose. It's not just at the draft, but also the trade table we could lose flexibility. We have no idea who could be available in 12 months time and we might need 1 or 2 high end picks to attain them. I'd only be open to it if Flanders was also attached to it, which I don't think GC will do. We are getting a big intake of talent where I think we can afford to keep our powder dry next year.

The extra year of development is a bit a crock this time of year. It's meaningless if the younger player is simply a much better prospect. I'm not saying that about Watson, who I think will be gone by GC pick, but it's irrelevant really.

Agree, Melbourne are the masters at trading their F1 and they do this knowing they have a players / picks that enable them to trade back in the following year. We're nowhere near that yet.

 

[Psicosis]

 

[justroyal]

That’s it.
I want to know just how attached this campaigner is to his mother.
Getting a lot of flashbacks.

 

[The Dingrel]

Rookie draft candidate?

Don't see why not? What's he 20 yo? My only question is if he is tall enough for AFL key position? Can't find his height anywhere.

 

[The Dingrel]

What sort of question is that? Why not both?

 

[Sphynx]

I can’t tell you why, but I have been convinced that Watson will be an historically powerful player since I saw him playing in last years Nat champs.
I know he is only 170cm and I don’t care.
His pace and workrate are elite. His skills are freakish.
He will be influencing games from the get go.
I would have been very happy with Watson and McKercher but this Reid opportunity has the potential to push Watson to Hawthorn.
As good as McKercher is, we need a truly game breaking forward (of any height) and getting sanders ticks the box for Brady’s desire to bring in a mid EVERY year. So does Reid, incidentally.
Why bring in three?
To the exclusion of other important player types.
Reid or McKercher - pick one. Either is fine but pick Watson too.
It’s not hard
Just pick Watson

I absolutely love him and would not be disappointed with him if we selected him at #2.

However,

I will be absolutely ropable if we then don't do what we can to then secure one of O'Sullivan or Murphy a touch later in the draft. I don't care what other player or capital we have to do to get it done.


Most of this doing is of our own creation.

We've had ample opportunity to draft some talls over the last 6 drafts and have failed.

Balta, Sam Taylor and TDK were all favourites on this board a few picks after when we took Will Walker in 2017

We didn't just have to burn a historically highly prized draft pick for Jarrad Polec, we only had to use it with some additional draft capital get up a few more picks to secure a Ben King AND Thomas (like every other club has done since...)

We didn't have to trade out of 2019, we could have taken Pickett. I mean there is only a massive family connection.

We then had two picks inside the top 13 and took two inside midfielders (I'm big fans of both, but there were free hits of McDonald and Chapman right there if we needed to), we took Phillips and Powell. Fine. But the make up of the next few drafts went against us, when we land the #1 picks who were all standout midfielders.


Hindsight is always 20-20, but we absolute need to start addressing the list inbalance NOW.

I'm even prepared to miss out on one of my favourite prospects ever to do it, that's how much of a shit show they have put us in regarding the list make up.


I really don't care what plan Clayton devised a number of years ago (draft small and trade tall), whatever...... It's not working. Clearly.

 

[The Dingrel]

It might seem obvious but we have so many gapping holes in our list that there's a genuine argument for 3 players at pick 2:
KPD – Curtin
Outside Run – McKercher
Small Forward – Watson

It all comes down to personal preference. When the Trade and Free Agency Period is over we'll be able to reassess and hopefully
one or two of those gapping holes are filled or at the very least has a stop gap.

Whatever happens we're in a fortunate position that, if we get pick 2, we will get a very good player no matter who we pick it's going to be Harry and George all over again.

You know what,,,,when we think about all our list needs, much has been made of a need for a small forward, and obviously if McKay leaves a KPD. But the more I think about all our results over the last few years, what has stood out most to me, is our inability to pin point a kick going inside our own 50, and then the ball is turned over and we're scored against. Perhaps our biggest need is speed, run, and carry and ability to deliver inside 50. McKercher seems to be the standout there. Also I know might get laughed at for saying this, but our performances have improved with Turner in the team,,,,ie/ more forward pressure at ground level. Now I'm not saying Kayne is the answer, BUT players who can apply more forward pressure would help a lot. Think a fit Wardlaw rotating through there, that changes the mindset of rebounding oppositions.

 

[giantroo]

I guess that's where drafting Watson would help out.

Wiz with his pressure! Just in case anyone was wondering about his defensive application.

View attachment gbhi18.mp4

 

[Sphynx]

In fact, the only real deal I would actually consider for our F1 would not be GC's single pick.

It would be two picks in the late top 10 if somebody could conjure it.


I would then take O'Sullivan and Caddy/Murphy.

I'd forgo the top end of next years draft if it meant we could get some quality young talls.

 

[Psicosis]

Wiz with his pressure! Just in case anyone was wondering about his defensive application.

View attachment 1782058

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Don't see why not? What's he 20 yo? My only question is if he is tall enough for AFL key position? Can't find his height anywhere.

I have seen him listed at 191, 192 and 193, with the latter coming from the vfl app.

He would need to improve on a few things to get an afl game as a leading third kpf type if was to be rookied. But we’ve given worse players rookie opportunities.

 

[Ball Dont Lie]

For me I would load up on as many potential A grade midfielders as possible. The days of losing the midfield battle and winning the game are over. It’s all about how good your 8 mids are. Good mids cover and help out an average defence. Good mids cover and help out an average forward line. For this reason only if we get pick 2 I would go Reid and McKercher with the 2 picks.

 

[Moti]

Going to say something that heaps will disagree with but that's alright; in drafting Harley Reid, I don't think we need to look for a CHF/another tall forward.

The way I see forward key position posts in the future, I think height isn't necessarily as important as the ability to compete both in the air and when the ball hits the deck.

All of PC, Zurhaar, Reid, George and Ford are quite strong, athletic and can compete well in the air as well as when it hits the deck. We've got Comben and Larkey as the taller types, with Larkey more the focal point inside 50m.

I'd still be starting Reid off a back flank, but the option of being able to play him as a key forward is an ace up the sleeve.

I think we need to focus on filling the following positions:

• Outside runners
• Defenders of all shapes and sizes
• Pressure forward
• Ruck

Been saying that for a while. I think we have Larkey and Chom but focus on a highly active lead up forward line.

 

[Jazny]

Can the AFL effectivly force a trade on Tasmanian players when the tassie side comes in? I'd hate for us to have our development stall right when we need it to fire.

No. But it would be a huge risk for one club to be stockpiling Tassie players right now.

 

[brooksnk]

I absolutely love him and would not be disappointed with him if we selected him at #2.

However,

I will be absolutely ropable if we then don't do what we can to then secure one of O'Sullivan or Murphy a touch later in the draft. I don't care what other player or capital we have to do to get it done.


Most of this doing is of our own creation.

We've had ample opportunity to draft some talls over the last 6 drafts and have failed.

Balta, Sam Taylor and TDK were all favourites on this board a few picks after when we took Will Walker in 2017

We didn't just have to burn a historically highly prized draft pick for Jarrad Polec, we only had to use it with some additional draft capital get up a few more picks to secure a Ben King AND Thomas (like every other club has done since...)

We didn't have to trade out of 2019, we could have taken Pickett. I mean there is only a massive family connection.

We then had two picks inside the top 13 and took two inside midfielders (I'm big fans of both, but there were free hits of McDonald and Chapman right there if we needed to), we took Phillips and Powell. Fine. But the make up of the next few drafts went against us, when we land the #1 picks who were all standout midfielders.


Hindsight is always 20-20, but we absolute need to start addressing the list inbalance NOW.

I'm even prepared to miss out on one of my favourite prospects ever to do it, that's how much of a s**t show they have put us in regarding the list make up.


I really don't care what plan Clayton devised a number of years ago (draft small and trade tall), whatever...... It's not working. Clearly.

Well put. I'm also keen for Reid and Watson as long as we can get O'Sullivan in.

I'm not so attached to Curtin as many others seem to be. If we get Pick 2 for Ben Mckay, then we try to split that to get Watson + something else we can combine with ~15 (PA 1st) to move up to O'Sullivan.

Problem is there will be risk involved. We'd probably have to have some assurance that Hawks won't take Watson.

Given a deal would likely involve pick 2 going to WC to secure Curtin, Hawks will have McKercher/Watson/Duursma as their likely options. We'd probably want some assurance they aren't taking Watson. I do think McKercher is more likely anyway for Hawks at that pick.

The GC pick 4 is probably the high pick we need in return for splitting 2. Can't really risk letting Watson slide past otherwise it's a 50/50 with Melb's Freo pick taking Watson/Duursma (and I reckon they take Watson - that Pickett/Watson combo will be a nightmare for opposition sides).

This is also assuming GC finish below Freo which might not happen. GC obviously has to beat us for all this to happen, but that means Freo need to beat Hawks, otherwise Melbourne's pick comes before GC which will make this all the more difficult.

So then we probably need pick 6 for O'Sullivan - this could be held theoretically by either GWS/Adelaide/Geelong/Essendon (if I am correct).

Not sure how we get that pick though. It would have to look something like 15, F2 (projecting 18-22) + something else I imagine. Difficult to see how it gets done. Im sure some more creative minds on here could work out some sort of mega-deal.

 

[kangatragic]

What's Reid's, Sanders and McKercher's tanks like? as another thing we lack is run at the end of games.

 

[Sphynx]

Well put. I'm also keen for Reid and Watson as long as we can get O'Sullivan in.

I'm not so attached to Curtin as many others seem to be. If we get Pick 2 for Ben Mckay, then we try to split that to get Watson + something else we can combine with ~15 (PA 1st) to move up to O'Sullivan.

Problem is there will be risk involved. We'd probably have to have some assurance that Hawks won't take Watson.

Given a deal would likely involve pick 2 going to WC to secure Curtin, Hawks will have McKercher/Watson/Duursma as their likely options. We'd probably want some assurance they aren't taking Watson. I do think McKercher is more likely anyway for Hawks at that pick.

The GC pick 4 is probably the high pick we need in return for splitting 2. Can't really risk letting Watson slide past otherwise it's a 50/50 with Melb's Freo pick taking Watson/Duursma (and I reckon they take Watson - that Pickett/Watson combo will be a nightmare for opposition sides).

This is also assuming GC finish below Freo which might not happen. GC obviously has to beat us for all this to happen, but that means Freo need to beat Hawks, otherwise Melbourne's pick comes before GC which will make this all the more difficult.

So then we probably need pick 6 for O'Sullivan - this could be held theoretically by either GWS/Adelaide/Geelong/Essendon (if I am correct).

Not sure how we get that pick though. It would have to look something like 15, F2 (projecting 18-22) + something else I imagine. Difficult to see how it gets done. Im sure some more creative minds on here could work out some sort of mega-deal.



Assuming we pre-list Sanders, we probably need

Powell + Ports R1 for Adelaides first (Currently #6) could work.

 

[noobermensch]

Ryley was one of the few Dragons players that stood up to the heat early as the Knights applied manic pressure around the ground and built a big lead. Sanders kept cracking in at the contest, and without him the scoreline might have gotten ugly.

 

[HBFlanker]

Hi all, Just on the Sanders situation, can someone confirm that if we do get to pre-list him as part of our NGA academy, we still need to match a bid for him? So that would mean PAs pick would get eaten up by that?

Is that correct?

 

[Shinboner1]

Wiz with his pressure! Just in case anyone was wondering about his defensive application.

View attachment 1782058

Get in!

 

[Sphynx]

Ryley was one of the few Dragons players that stood up to the heat early as the Knights applied manic pressure around the ground and built a big lead. Sanders kept cracking in at the contest, and without him the scoreline might have gotten ugly.

His best attribute is definitely his balance. Just supurb.

ALWAYS keeps his feet around the contest.

He times his runs really well as well, he moves much quicker on the football field and around stoppage than his athletic testing says he should.

 

[Moti]

In fact, the only real deal I would actually consider for our F1 would not be GC's single pick.

It would be two picks in the late top 10 if somebody could conjure it.


I would then take O'Sullivan and Caddy/Murphy.

I'd forgo the top end of next years draft if it meant we could get some quality young talls.

I have a slightly different angle. I think if we trade the F1 for GC 23 1, we get the talent this year which is great, but we are also signaling to the competition and our fans that we are not expecting to stay on the bottom, that 2024 is moving day for the NMFC. I would also do the deal then get that message out everywhere.

 

[Moti]

Hi all, Just on the Sanders situation, can someone confirm that if we do get to pre-list him as part of our NGA academy, we still need to match a bid for him? So that would mean PAs pick would get eaten up by that?

Is that correct?

Two methods, we prelist him before the draft or the AFL allow us to list him and match a bid. I think the 2nd is the most likely result.