NCAA 2023- NCAA Off Season News

[aussiedude]

Looks like the next 2-3 days the decision will be made.

Sources: ACC expansion talks still alive as leaders consider new financial proposal

Believed to be a long shot just days ago, the acquisition of Stanford, Cal and SMU is back on the table.

sports.yahoo.com

Two of the three expansion targets, Stanford, the bell-cow of the group, and Cal, are proposing to take a significantly reduced revenue distribution for multiple years, starting at about 30%. SMU is proposing to take no distribution for as many as seven years

The ACC’s television contract with ESPN includes a pro-rata clause requiring the network to increase the value of the deal by one Tier 1 share for every new member — believed to be about $24 million a share, or about 70% of a full ACC share, which includes Tiers 1-3.

The ACC would stand to earn about $72 million in new money with the three expansion shares. Cal and Stanford have agreed to each take about 30% of the $24 million share, or roughly $7-10 million. After Cal and Stanford’s share and travel costs are off-set (roughly $1-2 million per school), the ACC stands to earn at least $30 million in revenue to re-distribute, likely through an incentive pool based on athletic success.

 

[aussiedude]

Kinda surprised the Big10 didnt call Stanford over the weekend since all the presidents wanted us but it was Fox that said no, and Stanford was considering entering the ACC while taking no money for the first few years according to a report late last week.

I guess we will end up there with ND when the ACC falls apart in the next round.

Feel sorry for Oregon State and Washington State having to take ~$4M a year with the debts they made to keep up with the Pac-12. just sent out to die because someone decided they are not a TV market anyone wants.

 

[aussiedude]

I think NC State will be the vote that flipped, when they saw there is no place for them in the Big10 or SEC.

the other 3 [North Carolina, Clemson and FSU] the SEC would take. UNC mostly for basketball.

 

[aussiedude]

Also remember that UCLA have to pay Cal $10m a year in whats called the "Berkley tax" for leaving to enter the Big10. but dont know how many years its for.

 

[gaskin]

I hear the MWC Commissioner is on campus at WSU tomorrow

I wonder how far the next domino is to fall.

MWC should be making a hard sell to WSU and OSU atm. Get them to jump ship and it's obvious what the next step will be.

I've made the commend on a Boise State forum. I believe long term, the best thing is for the Pac to rebuild. But in the short term it might be next to impossible. The increase in tv that a mwc/aac school will get in this iteration of the pac wouldn't offset the exit clause buyouts. So even though we can cut the dead weight (Hawai'i, San Jose State and maybe some more) the schools mightn't be able to afford it.

I'd push for WSU/OSU now and force Stanfords/cals hand. No chance you can rebuild.

TBH - I very much doubt Stanford will join any league except the ACC. But having WSU/OSU on board, might have Cal join. And at that point, the MWC is better than the AAC (Probably was the day Cincy/Houston/UCF left) so we might, MIGHT even manage to claw SMU or UTSA out of the AAC to even things out (SMU would have the finances to do it better, UTSA has more potential to be more) It would be a lateral move on the financial side of things (East coast worth more with less population on the west coast, time zones = west coast games too late for east coast viewers)

End of the day, these pac4 schools need to figure out what they're doing asap. Their precarious situation would have them losing recruiting battles left right and centre at the moment.

Having said that, I dont know if they're a threat for Boise State, we won a recruiting battle with Michigan (He's only visited Michigan, Oregon and TCU, and the final 2 was reportedly Boise State and Michigan) a few weeks back haha. To be fair, he is an Idaho kid. So probably grew up a Broncos fan. But with his offer list (Alabama, Arkansas, BYU, Cal, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Miami, Michigan, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Utah, Washington, Washington State, Wisconsin, 1 other G5 school, and 2 FCS schools) I wonder if he's a chance at becoming Boise State's first ever 5 star recruit. Currently ranked #35 in the nation.

From what I can gather, it is the last resort for WSU and OSU. They don't want to drop to the G5 and WSU in particular can't afford the monetary hit they would take. It would cripple the program financially for years if not decades. But, the only outcome I can see is them joining the MWC or the Pac merging with the MWC since no other P5 conference seems interested in either of them.

 

[aussiedude]

From what I can gather, it is the last resort for WSU and OSU. They don't want to drop to the G5 and WSU in particular can't afford the monetary hit they would take. It would cripple the program financially for years if not decades. But, the only outcome I can see is them joining the MWC or the Pac merging with the MWC since no other P5 conference seems interested in either of them.

It sucks they got left behind. I would love Oregon St to win the Pac this season as a one last hurrah.

 

[Dirty Bird]

From what I can gather, it is the last resort for WSU and OSU. They don't want to drop to the G5 and WSU in particular can't afford the monetary hit they would take. It would cripple the program financially for years if not decades. But, the only outcome I can see is them joining the MWC or the Pac merging with the MWC since no other P5 conference seems interested in either of them.

I think the only way the Pac and MWC would merge is as a way to keep Pac basketball credits.

But even then, there's no gauruntee the MWC will have a better tv deal next time around (But probably a good chance tbh, ESPN needs more late night content, so they'd drive the price up - especially if the MWC went to weekday games)

The general consensus from Boise State fans sounds like f*ck Stanford, f*ck Cal (They're snobs who look down on schools from red states, and are too prideful on academics looking down on the entire MWC). However, fans are excited with OSU/WSU as it brings the conference up (Though, if their income drops, they might collapse to be sh*t).

Me personally? idc. I saw some interesting interviews from some BigXII podcasts back in that phase between adding BYU/UCF/Cincy/Houston and holding off with it highly likely they'd go Boise State/Memphis next (but things stopped rapidly - guess with hindsight it's obvious that tv networks told them to hold off as there might be better down the track) which pointed out culture of the P5 conferences, plus candidates. And you could see that the Pac12/BigTen were academic snobs who looked down on everyone (particularly the SEC (academically) and BigXII), but OSU/WSU (and maybe one/both of the Arizona schools too) were academic outliers in the old Pac.

When I think about the final 4 options and think about their options.

Stanford - They've placed themselves on a pedestal. They probably get into the BigTen in the medium term, but there's no viable option to join with them now. Stanford knows they'll join in the next round, they just have to make the best of a bad situation now. And tbh, the ACC makes sense for them. It's actually a conference which suits their culture. There will be heightened costs, but they'd have million/billionaires happy to fund that to keep them going. What they can't allow is to fall behind, and joining the MWC which would be terrible culturally, might take them backwards. They need to go ACC. And at an absolute bloody stretch, AAC. Otherwise it's independent.

California - Their brand isn't as strong as Stanfords. So they have no path to the BigTen. So their next move, is probably their last move (short of going FCS/dropping football altogether). In the short term, ACC would actually work. But lets look ahead to once the ACC collapses, that's a matter of when, not if. What do you do? Try to convince MWC/AAC schools to join and create a best of the rest? Does the ACC fully collapse and they have to join the MWC (Better for fans/travel costs) or AAC (Better cultural fit)? Joining the ACC for Cal is just kicking the can down the road. And their problem is that in 10 years or whenever it happens where the ACC implodes, the Cal is now an outlier. They can't shape things. THey'd be the odd voice out.

Oregon State/Washington State - Both are the same, the BigXII and ACC would have zero interest in them, their choices is join the AAC or the MWC. AAC would offer more visibility and money, but higher expenses than the MWC. Would a Washington State fan be more interested in SMU coming across the country, or a local Boise State? Would Oregon State rather travel to Maryland to play Navy in Novemeber, or Hawai'i to play Hawai'i? From a school perspective, it's probably a break even tbh. AAC or MWC? But from a conference perspective. the AAC schools might go, why would I travel all the way over there? Especially for olympic sports.

I think Stanford/Cal will get into the ACC. But if I'm being honest with you. I think it'd be good for Stanford, but bad for Cal.
I think OSU/WSU will get into the MWC. But don't count out the AAC. But I do believe it'd be better if they were in the MWC.

 

[aussiedude]

I think Stanford/Cal will get into the ACC. But if I'm being honest with you. I think it'd be good for Stanford, but bad for Cal.
I think OSU/WSU will get into the MWC. But don't count out the AAC. But I do believe it'd be better if they were in the MWC.

I think Cal is only getting it because Stanford and ND are pulling for them.
But don't know if they would make it to the Big10 when Stanford and ND go once the ACC fall apart. Which I think Clemson, UNC and FSU will go to SEC, some of the basketball schools go Big12 and Cal might end up there in a package deal. Not sure any really go Big10 with ND and Stanford.
The ACC won't last till 2037 when the GoR expires.

Then it will be 3 power conferences for about 10 years before all the big names break away because they are sick of the smaller names getting equal shares. And most of the schools that moved the last 3 years will once again be left behind and regret the death of the Pac

 

[gaskin]

 

[aussiedude]

And not scheduled yet because of a hurricane hitting in the next couple of days.