Preview 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Sat 23rd Sept 5.15PM @ Gabba

[Aphrodite]

TEAM IS IN …


IN: Jordan Boyd, Jack Martin

21

Jack Martin

Age

29

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.7

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.9

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

3.6

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.6

3star

, Harry McKay

10

Harry Mckay

Age

26

Ht

200cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.9

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

2.4

2star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.4

5star

D

6.6

1star

K

4.6

2star

HB

2.0

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

2star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.4

4star

T

0.8

3star

G

2.0

5star

OUT: David Cuningham, Brodie Kemp, Matthew Kennedy, Matthew Owies

AFL team selection: Four changes for preliminary final

Carlton has named its team for the preliminary final.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Backs:	Alex Cincotta	Jacob Weitering	Adam Saad
Half-backs:	Caleb Marchbank	Mitch McGovern	Nic Newman
Centreline:	Blake Acres	Patrick Cripps	Ollie Hollands
Half-forwards:	Tom De Koning	Harry McKay	Sam Docherty
Forwards:	Lachie Fogarty	Charlie Curnow	Jesse Motlop
Followers:	Marc Pittonet	Adam Cerra	Sam Walsh
Interchange:	Jordan Boyd	Matthew Cottrell	George Hewett
	Jack Martin
Emergencies:	David Cuningham	Brodie Kemp	Matthew Kennedy
	Matthew Owies

 

[passmark]

Word is the game will be on Saturday at 4.35pm

That’s an awful time.

 

[gbatman]

How good is this! It's been such a long time since we have won two finals and since we have been in a preliminary final.

Team selection is going to be a massive one this week. IMO the Melbourne games was a loss that through sheer luck and individual brilliance became a win.

I think the team we have taken into finals has lacked a bit of leg speed over the field. That closing speed and the run and carry that has been a huge part of our turn around and that winning streak we have had is gone. It's not there and IMO if it was we beat both Sydney and Melbourne with a little more comfort.

It's not hard to see why with who has come out of the team for finals. Dow, Fisher/Boyd, Hollands. Martin misses this week. Motlop was sub and missed most of week 1. Dow had been getting his 20-26 possessions and generating break away and run from clearance. Fisher/Boyd have been replaced with tallish players. Hollands has been replace with Docherty. Docherty is quickish for an onballer but not for a winger. Our run and carry and closing speed has been an issue in both games and was a real issue against Melbourne and hence, so was our ball movement and forward pressure. Ironically these were the factors the beat the Deas in our H/A game earlier.

Our ball movement has been stagnant. Coming out of defence, unless Saad has it it's usually bomb to packs and see what happens. Usually that's ok but the ball hits the ground and the speed to close on it or the opposition ball carrier when it does isn't there. Thought it came out of our forward line too easily.

I think up there at the Gabba some run and gut run as well as speed is going to be super important.

We got away with it against Sydney and Melbourne because both our opposition could not kick straight. I don't think we get away with it this week against Brisbane up there. We need to be better and we need to be quicker.

Our wins over Collingwood, Melbourne (Home and Away) and Port Adelaide hold the key to beating the other top 4 side in the competition. We fielded sides who were balanced and had a lot more run and carry than the sides we have fielded in this finals series.

Normally you don't make this many changes to a winning team. But we are lucky. We have had two finals we probably should not have won. We only beat Melbourne because they had a shocker in front of goal. Sydney much the same. Unlike the last time we beat Melbourne it was a game where we beat them around the ground and deserved to win and we won on our own merit, we did not need luck that night.

We need to look at our team and decided that it's not quite working. We are here because we are playing fairly well but have had luck. We have lost some traits that got us here and lost them because we have selected the team this way.

Up there we are playing a next level opposition. Luck won't get us home, we need to find a way to get better and improve before we get up there. Gotta fix the run issue.

I think the chances it could be hot and muggy are fairly high so a big heavy side could get blown apart. Gut runners and speedy players, the sort who started our streak have to be on the cards.

Our win over Melbourne, I look at it as a loss that luck turned into a win. We got away with one here. So we need to get better.

B: Newman Weitering Docherty
HB: Saad McGovern Fisher
C: Acres Cripps Hollands
HF: Cottrell Martin Cuningham
F: McKay Curnow Owies
OB: Pittonet Walsh Cerra
IC: Kemp Hewett Motlop DeKoning
SUB: Dow

OUT:
Marchbank - Someone tall has to go IMO so we can have that run and carry we have been lacking. He was the one who had an absolute stinker and Kemp has been consistent. Fisher for Marchbank.

Cincotta - Been good all season but was pretty poor against Melbourne. Docherty goes back to defence and replaces him in this role. Docherty being a clear upgrade.

Kennedy - Just too slow. Kicked a goal but the rebound around him was insane against the Deas. McKay and Martin back and there is no midfield spot so he gets a game into him and he waits.

Fogarty - Ok so he has been there through our winning streak and he's laid tackles and not a whole heap more. Had a stinker last week. Don't want the ball in his hands. Did very little against Sydney. Doesn't kick goals. Love his tackline and pressure and he is a midfield rotation but I think we need to be more dangerous this week up forward. Docherty goes back and becomes the midfield rotation.

Hollands* - His speed and gut running up there could be crucial. He's been good on the wing. If it's hot or muggy we will be glad we picked an extra endurance beast. Have some faith in him like we did with Campo in '95, he can play.

IN:

Fisher - Unlucky to get dropped. Our obsession with big bodies being the only reason. Big bodies are good but you still need good ball movement and you need to be able to get to the ball quickly if it's lose or in opposition hands and we have been poor here. Fisher gave us some good games at half back. When he and Saad were going our ball movement against good sides was excellent. This finals series our ball movement has been crap. Good ball movement starts from half back. Run from behind. The run from behind is what got us back into this season and it's what we have lost in this finals series, lets get it back.

McKay - He's obvious, he comes back in. McKay looms as one of those players who might just have one massive big game in a big final that gets their team home. There is just that feel about him. He finished the Sydney game angry. He got hurt trying to up his game. I get the feeling he will really stand up.

Martin - The speed, the pressure, the smarts and the skills he brings we sorely missed. IMO he comes in and he hurts them.

Dow* - Dow is a sub specialist. At some stage he comes into the game and gives us an extra mid. When it's hot and muggy and everyone is out on their feet up there. Dow comes on early in the third quarter and we just look for him. He's the one to blitz this game and break it wide open. Dow running away with the ball from stoppages and through the middle of the ground when the game is on the line and everyone is out on their feet is what could win us this game.

Changes
Docherty goes back to the back pocket, he becomes another midfield rotation. He's a vast improvement over Cincotta. We also miss his midfield game, he adds something different, has an ability to hit the ball and man really hard in there and break away with the footy. A vast upgrade on Cuningham and Fogarty as midfield rotations.

Midfield rotations need to be higher. We simply must put more players through the middle or we get burnt out. Up there where it's hotter and more humid we need to manage the loads.

Dow comes on as sub mid way. We have missed Dow's clearance and burst around the stoppages badly. His hurt factor has been grossly underrated. Wait until everyone is a bit cooked and bring him in fresh and use him. A fresh legged Dow against tired legs up there in the heat and humidity could be a match winner. He's been brilliant as sub all year. He adds much needed speed to the midfield.

Fisher - Our ball movement has been rubbish all season. Fisher adds to this. He was excellent in a few big games against the Saints and Melbourne off half back. Pretty much gave us another Saad. A 20-25 possession game from Fisher means we have fast, direct ball movement because he has the skills and the talent to do that. Stagnant ball movement from a half back line that isn't quick enough or skilled in this area has hurt us. IMO our first two wins could have been by more if we fix this. Fisher is a weapon, let's use him.

Cuningham - Stick with him in his forward/Mid role. But he must go hard. One of the small forwards who is not firing will make way for Dow to come into the game. Then we drift Cerra and Walsh forward more. Same as we did when we took Port Adelaide apart.

Martin, McKay, Curnow, Owies, Motlop, Cuningham, Cottrell is a forward line which can kick goals and has the speed to inflict some serious pressure. Our half forward line was dreadful and slow against Melbourne. McKay, Martin pretty much fix this on their own. And if we can generate some run and carry from half back, our forwards will be on cloud 9.

Brisbane

I think we can match them in the middle despite them being a top clearance team. In fact I think this is crucial. If we can do this we take the bullets out of their gun and stick them in ours. I think this will worry the Lions.

Lions are a kicking team, don't handball a heap, they like to get the ball forward and be aggressive.

The have a bit of good quality height in their side so we may not change our defence as this does worry me as well.

Port Adelaide held onto Brisbane until just after half time and then the Lions ran away with the game. So midfield rotations, tactical midfield sub, and a few gut runners in Cottrell, Hollands, Acres and Walsh are going to be super important.

Saad may have to go to Cameron. This means we need other rebounding defenders. This is why Fisher and Docherty are important as they can do this role really well. Rayner is in form. Newman is a good matchup there. Fisher or Docherty to Ah Chee. We match them well in defence apart from them having two giant forwards. So a ruckman dropping back as much as possible is important.

Weitering will be on Daniher. Hipwood worries me. 200cm do we rely on McGovern or Kemp here? We have before and it's been ok but I think we may discuss Sam Durdin

38

Sam Durdin

Age

28

Ht

199cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.7

2star

K

6.2

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.7

4star

No current season stats available

D

11.2

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.6

4star

but probably not go with that. One thing we will know is whether Sam can hold top AFL forwards, he's been doing it in match sim all year.

Just have to keep hitting them with quality numbers through the middle, keep our mids fresh and run this game out. Cripps, Cerra, Walsh, Hewett, Docherty, Cuningham and Dow as a tactical sub. Acres, Cottrell and Hollands to do a power of running on the wing and HFF.

These guys are used to winning the clearances and out running teams. We should plan to go up there beat or match them in the clearances and out run them in a big way.

IMO we can win this but the two big forwards do really bother me.

 

[KohPhi]

Need to watch the replay, but not sure Kennedy comes out, thought he had some huge moments

Should be better for the run..

 

[Shambolic]

Owies 50th!

 

[Nunez]

Congratulations on beating Melbourne. Shades of Brisbane circa 2022 in this team. If you don't make it this year, the future will prove to be bright regardless.

May whoever wins between us beat the Collywobbles the week after!

 

[F_therest]

Think Kennedy and Cunningham for McKay and Martin is a given but I’d swap marchbank for Boyd…marchbank does some good things but does some really bad things aswell…Boyd has leg speed which I think we are lacking with weitering, kemp and McGovern playing tall already…hewett for Dow would add more speed aswell but can’t see that happening

Agree Kennedy and Cunners for Mckay and Martin.

Kennedy unlucky, he was ahead of Hewett in the pecking order before his injury. He's definitely a better kick than Hewett but Hewett has been good and probably bodies Neale.

Cunners quiet for about 4 games now...not doing enough.

I like keeping Mots in. Was shaky at the start with his kicking but grew into the game and kicked 2 classy goals.

I have a feeling the MC will stick with Marchy...we will need him to take Hipwood while Weitering takes Danniher. Don't think Kemp is a good match up for Hipwood...Kemp cost us quite a few goals last night too. There's talk of Gunston returning as well...think we stay with the taller defence.

Don't think we are more stagnant because of the taller defence...more to do with the whole team being a bit more conservative under finals heat.

 

[Coona Blues]

I do not fear the Lions

I wouldn’t, except they are sitting pretty after a week off. Our group has a few who have “enjoyed” some time off leading up to this, but a number of our boys are running on fumes and “guts”.

Huge ask at the ‘Gabba. Not dismissing our chances as we have the group to do it, but if I see the usual suspects in the game day thread dumping on any of the boys, I will go off. Will take a Herculean effort to make this happen.

Proud of our playing group and staff.

 

[F_therest]

Marchbank continually found himself in the right position last night then butchered it. Dropping marks, spoiling, team mates. That’s better than being being anonymous I guess but was poor.

MC will back Marchy in I reckon. At least he got to the right spots and did impact aerially quite a lot. Was good vs Sydney.

He's the right match up for Hipwood...lets not forget Smith towelled up Kemp last night and we were forced to switch Weiters to him pretty early.

Weitering to Danniher.
Marchy to Hipwood.
Kemp to Gunston who might play.
Gov to McCarthy.
Newman to Raynor.
Cincotta to Bailey.
Saad to Cameron.

 

[jj1978]

His intercept mark off Viney and resultant kick to Ollie leads me to think yes..

Struggling for breath from whack to throat. I suspected he was a bit winded how he was hunched over gasping.

 

[HarryFlashman]

We need Marchbank next week. He might even have to play on hipwood. Tough ask but I think that its a bridge too far for Kemp at the moment.

Watch Voss' press conference from Thursday. We are ott changing our defence unless we have to.

George Hewett played on Oliver for a lotof the night. Laughable to think that Dow could do that. Like it or jot it would seem that paddy dow has played his last game for the club. Absolutely made sense to give Hollands a taste of the finals last night. You don't cut off your nose to spite your face but if it is a toss of the coin you always play the player that will be at your club for the next 10 years.

That’s out & out bullshit - Hewett played on everyone- just like all our mids. Someone else said he had low numbers as he was shutting down Petracca.
Hewett played a poor one (PA were low, clearances low, tackles low, disposal numbers down & looked slow) yes he did a couple good things but so does everyone. Was the weak link in our mids - we are slow on the outside & he wasn’t winning it inside.
He won’t be dropped but let’s not sugar coat it. We are lacking first touch/step & burst big time, Cunners not delivering it & that’s not Hewetts go. Walsh had 43 pressure acts 8 tackles Hewett had 11 & 3 & he’s supposed to be our defensive mid

 

[jj1978]

Agree Kennedy and Cunners for Mckay and Martin.

Kennedy unlucky, he was ahead of Hewett in the pecking order before his injury. He's definitely a better kick than Hewett but Hewett has been good and probably bodies Neale.

Cunners quiet for about 4 games now...not doing enough.

I like keeping Mots in. Was shaky at the start with his kicking but grew into the game and kicked 2 classy goals.

I have a feeling the MC will stick with Marchy...we will need him to take Hipwood while Weitering takes Danniher. Don't think Kemp is a good match up for Hipwood...Kemp cost us quite a few goals last night too. There's talk of Gunston returning as well...think we stay with the taller defence.

Don't think we are more stagnant because of the taller defence...more to do with the whole team being a bit more conservative under finals heat.

Hewett has become Ed 2.0! Tags and gathers possessions himself.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Hewett has become Ed 2.0! Tags and gathers possessions himself.

He wasn’t tagging, just wasn’t doing much - if he was tagging his pressure numbers & tackles would reflect that.
Neale would torch him & it would hurt us even further on the outside

 

[agro]

Have to find a way to get tickets.

Have to find a way to get accommodation.

Have to find a way to get there

Have to find a way to win.

Just have to find a way.

 

[jj1978]

He wasn’t tagging, just wasn’t doing much - if he was tagging his pressure numbers & tackles would reflect that.
Neale would torch him & it would hurt us even further on the outside

He’s being used in shut down rolls when required.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Just let this sink in. We will have our best side in, including our missing forwards. We will be in this game knee deep.
Go baggers - dare to dream. ****ing we should all DARE TO DREAM now!!

 

[jj1978]

MC just please choose the best and fittest team for the opponent. There may have to be some hard calls.

 

[dumb]

kind of odd that no-one gives us a chance, not that it's important. brisbane are a step up from melbourne, and i guess our last game against gws has coloured our run of form a bit. we're definitely a different team compared to when we last played bris though not as convincing as early in our run of form.

apparently that was our grand final. we've won a lot of grand finals this year, maybe 4 or 5.

 

[Athomas]

MC will back Marchy in I reckon. At least he got to the right spots and did impact aerially quite a lot. Was good vs Sydney.

He's the right match up for Hipwood...lets not forget Smith towelled up Kemp last night and we were forced to switch Weiters to him pretty early.

Weitering to Danniher.
Marchy to Hipwood.
Kemp to Gunston who might play.
Gov to McCarthy.
Newman to Raynor.
Cincotta to Bailey.
Saad to Cameron.

And if Gunston doesn't come in? I think it would be a poor move from Brisbane to bring him in. Their forward line is working at the moment and he's a big risk not having played since Round 22 (his injury game)

I think it's pretty similar to SOS on our end, they won't risk him.

If he stays out, it will be a really interesting decision for MC.

 

[F_therest]

And if Gunston doesn't come in? I think it would be a poor move from Brisbane to bring him in. Their forward line is working at the moment and he's a big risk not having played since Round 22 (his injury game)

I think it's pretty similar to SOS on our end, they won't risk him.

If he stays out, it will be a really interesting decision for MC.

My personal opinion Marchy still plays for the Hipwood match up.

Kemp should be versatile enough to play on one of Brisbane's other forwards who are all good in the air.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Kemp Weiters Boyd
Saad Mcgov Newman
Acres Cripps Doch
Martin Mckay Fogarty
Owies Curnow Motlop
Pitto Cerra Walsh

TDK Cincotta Cottrell Hewett

For me

 

[BlueLocke]

Might be wrong, but it looked like Petracca was picked up by Gov when he pushed forward; makes me think he’ll take Rayner this week.

Newman and/or Cincotta for Cameron.

Hipwood is the tough match-up. Big ask for Kemp.

 

[JuddgementDay]

One thing we’ve learnt, minimal changes for finals

Ins are easy, but outs are tough for the unlucky players
With a bit of luck, this is our strongest 22 that we’ve fielded for the year.
Yep, going into the last two weeks on a crescendo - well done AR!

In: H & Martin
Out: Kennedy & Cunners

Sub: Motlop, we have too many forwards

Hollands stays in for his running capacity

Keep it simple & win the Prelim

Let’s go Baggers!!!

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Boyd could be a handy IN to help with our f50 entries and generally hitting targets

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

Out: Cunningham, Marchbank, Kennedy

In: Martin, Harry, Dow (sub)

Martin comes in for Cunningham

Harry for Kennedy

Docherty back to defence replacing Marchbank with Hollands to take his spot on the wing.

Dow for sub

Cant have the error ridden Marchbank again

Cunningham sub par for many weeks but even moreso last night

Kennedy way off the pace

 

[myblueroan]

Need to watch the replay, but not sure Kennedy comes out, thought he had some huge moments

Yep. And more in the middle with Martin back in.