gutsroy
Brownlow Medallist
The times, they are a changing… or are they?
It’s been an interesting year in the ever-changing SC landscape, gentleladies and gentlecampaigners.
The game creators made a number of tweaks which may have fundamentally changed the game and the optimal strategy to apply:
Maybe, maybe not. Last year, it definitely worked well. But if you dig a little deeper, last year was also a little different than your average year. Popular midpriced selections such as Jarrod Witts
, James Sicily
, Patrick Cripps
and George Hewett
, to name a handful, didn’t just perform well above their starting prices, they were amongst the very best players in their respective lines for the bulk of the year (even when things soured a touch for a couple late on, by that stage every prick and his canine companion had jumped on them, so it didn’t matter sooooo much).
On a side note, this also highlighted the year-to-year variance of the established SC content providers out there. Depending on the community you were aligned with, you might have been influenced to go all-in on Sicily, Hewett, Witts, Cripps and co., to eschew the one or the other etc., which might have seen you fly out of the starter’s gate...
John Longmire always felt more at ease at the racetrack for some reason
...or trip over your own feet...
That doesn't tickle, campaigners, I'll give you the hot tip...
... and play catch up all year.
We saw (and I’m going purely off memory here) that a couple of the Dr SC and FTTV content teams (both of which are outstanding) got left behind a bit at the start of the year. But there are two things to bear in mind there:
I’m not going to pretend I have the answer, every year is different and separating out fundamental shifts from ephemera is not an easy task.
Try as he may, Dazzler was unable to explain how Charlie Comben went from being in 153% of teams to precisely 0 in a single display of abject shitness.
At the end of the day, the old golfer’s adage of playing it how it lies holds true. If life gives you lemons, make lemonade, if life gives you a bunch of low-cost, high prospect rookies, welcome to the jungle, gunners, if the cupboard is bare on that front but there are some juicy midpricers, then giddy up and hitch your wagon to Stupid Sexy Flanders, Finn Callaghan, Liam Jones
and co. and see how you fare, accepting that you might start off a touch lighter on the premo front but end up with some fairly easy stepping stones to reach them if your cheapies fire out of the gate.
Live cross to G'n'R hardliners trying to resist the allure of a 250ker running around like an unregistered dog taking 37 marks a game and with more thirst than Robbo at an AFL awards night
It’s been an interesting year in the ever-changing SC landscape, gentleladies and gentlecampaigners.
The game creators made a number of tweaks which may have fundamentally changed the game and the optimal strategy to apply:
- We’ve copped a genuine, bonafide, rootin’, tootin’ ****ton of trades. 36 trades is a heap, no matter which way you slice it;
- We’ve copped trade boosts, which can be deployed in the earlier rounds (so, say, starting rd 5 / 6 thru rd 12 / 13 in particular) to increase your upgrade cadence and / or to allow you to do some heavy-duty premo slingshotting across the bye;
- The Magic Number for initial pricing is unusually high this year at 5.5k/pt. In past years, it was around 5.4k/pt. That should, all things being equal, mean that premo prices dip a little harder than previous years (this assumes the steady state MN will end up in the same region as any other year);
- We’ve now got a pretty generous bye round schedule, Rd 13 potentially offering possibilities to target Suns / Geelong players either in initial selections (like a Tom Stewart / Sam Flanders / Jarrod WittsPLAYERCARDSTART28Jarrod Witts
- Age
- 32
- Ht
- 209cm
- Wt
- 110kg
- Pos.
- Ruck
CareerSeasonLast 5- D
- 12.2
- 3star
- K
- 6.4
- 3star
- HB
- 5.8
- 4star
- CL
- 3.3
- 5star
- HO
- 31.8
- 5star
- D
- 10.8
- 3star
- K
- 5.9
- 2star
- HB
- 4.9
- 3star
- CL
- 3.4
- 4star
- HO
- 29.5
- 5star
- D
- 7.8
- 2star
- K
- 4.2
- 2star
- HB
- 3.6
- 3star
- CL
- 0.4
- 3star
- HO
- 8.0
- 5star
PLAYERCARDENDPLAYERCARDSTART11Touk Miller- Age
- 28
- Ht
- 178cm
- Wt
- 84kg
- Pos.
- Mid
CareerSeasonLast 5- D
- 21.7
- 5star
- K
- 9.5
- 4star
- HB
- 12.3
- 5star
- M
- 3.7
- 4star
- T
- 5.4
- 5star
- CL
- 4.2
- 5star
- D
- 22.0
- 5star
- K
- 11.4
- 4star
- HB
- 10.6
- 5star
- M
- 2.9
- 3star
- T
- 4.8
- 5star
- CL
- 4.1
- 5star
- D
- 17.8
- 5star
- K
- 5.8
- 3star
- HB
- 12.0
- 5star
- M
- 3.0
- 3star
- T
- 3.8
- 5star
- CL
- 3.0
- 5star
PLAYERCARDEND -
Salvador Dali’s later works tended to lack the spark of his earlier output, it must be said.
- There seems to have been a little bit of a shift to more generous / enticing initial pricing of midpricers.
In general terms (she’s going to get a touch abstract, kids, sorry, time to get my Poindexter on), the increase in the number of trades and the more attractive midpricer discounting conspired last year to bring the gold standard in this caper, the Guns’n’Rookies strategy, into question...
- The increase in the number of trades means – in heavily simplified terms – the cash needed to be generated by a trade (or earnt by a cash cow prior to trade-out) reduces.
- Even if you assume final squad values might be around the 14m mark under the new system (as opposed to, say, 13.5m or so in the old world), that still means that the value of a trade reduces. A very back of the envelope calculation might help:
- Old World
- Brave New World
- Total Trades
- 30
- Total Trades
- 36
- Thereof injury / sideways
- 6
- Thereof injury / sideways
- 7
- Residual ‘money generating’ trades
- 24
- Residual ‘money generating’ trades
- 29
- Starting Squad Value
- 10m
- Starting Squad Value
- 10m
- Final Squad Value
- 13.5m
- Final Squad Value
- 13.9m
- Value of a Trade
- (3.5m / 24 trades)
- ~150k/trade
- Value of a Trade
- (3.5m / 24 trades)
- ~135k/trade
- Not everyone will agree with this and it’s heavily stylized, but that’s not really the point. The point is we’re probably looking at trades needing to generate less money to be considered viable, bringing midpricers into the frame.
- And that, in theory, means that there is a little shift away from G’n’R, the best option from a return in investment (ROI) perspective, to strategies with more midpriced selections (we’ll still have a sprinkling of rookies generating a fair bit more than the theoretical value of a trade) that might not ultimately make quite as much money, but can potentially increase your on-field output, particularly early doors. Handy both from the point of view of banking early league wins and tracking square with the leaders if overall’s more your go.
- And at the end of the day, money can’t buy you happiness, but it also can’t always buy you league wins – you need on-field scoring power for that. How much cash the pigs are earning on the bench doesn’t matter a heap until you punch them out. A ton on the field is worth eleventy billion on the bench, as the saying goes* (* not really, just made that up).
Maybe, maybe not. Last year, it definitely worked well. But if you dig a little deeper, last year was also a little different than your average year. Popular midpriced selections such as Jarrod Witts
PLAYERCARDSTART
28
Jarrod Witts
- Age
- 32
- Ht
- 209cm
- Wt
- 110kg
- Pos.
- Ruck
Career
Season
Last 5
- D
- 12.2
- 3star
- K
- 6.4
- 3star
- HB
- 5.8
- 4star
- CL
- 3.3
- 5star
- HO
- 31.8
- 5star
- D
- 10.8
- 3star
- K
- 5.9
- 2star
- HB
- 4.9
- 3star
- CL
- 3.4
- 4star
- HO
- 29.5
- 5star
- D
- 7.8
- 2star
- K
- 4.2
- 2star
- HB
- 3.6
- 3star
- CL
- 0.4
- 3star
- HO
- 8.0
- 5star
PLAYERCARDEND
PLAYERCARDSTART
6
James Sicily
- Age
- 30
- Ht
- 188cm
- Wt
- 90kg
- Pos.
- Def
Career
Season
Last 5
- D
- 18.3
- 5star
- K
- 12.7
- 5star
- HB
- 5.7
- 4star
- M
- 6.3
- 5star
- T
- 1.5
- 3star
- MG
- 365.0
- 5star
- D
- 19.4
- 4star
- K
- 14.3
- 5star
- HB
- 5.1
- 3star
- M
- 5.9
- 5star
- T
- 1.0
- 2star
- MG
- 437.4
- 5star
- D
- 10.0
- 3star
- K
- 6.0
- 3star
- HB
- 4.0
- 3star
- M
- 4.2
- 4star
- T
- 2.0
- 4star
- MG
- 173.8
- 3star
PLAYERCARDEND
PLAYERCARDSTART
9
Patrick Cripps
- Age
- 29
- Ht
- 195cm
- Wt
- 93kg
- Pos.
- Mid
Career
Season
Last 5
- D
- 25.9
- 5star
- K
- 9.8
- 4star
- HB
- 16.1
- 5star
- M
- 3.4
- 3star
- T
- 5.8
- 5star
- CL
- 7.4
- 5star
- D
- 21.0
- 5star
- K
- 10.1
- 4star
- HB
- 10.9
- 5star
- M
- 2.5
- 3star
- T
- 3.8
- 4star
- CL
- 6.3
- 5star
- D
- 12.6
- 4star
- K
- 4.8
- 2star
- HB
- 7.8
- 5star
- M
- 2.0
- 3star
- T
- 3.2
- 5star
- CL
- 1.4
- 4star
PLAYERCARDEND
PLAYERCARDSTART
29
George Hewett
- Age
- 29
- Ht
- 187cm
- Wt
- 87kg
- Pos.
- Mid
Career
Season
Last 5
- D
- 17.7
- 4star
- K
- 7.4
- 3star
- HB
- 10.3
- 5star
- M
- 2.7
- 3star
- T
- 4.1
- 5star
- CL
- 3.3
- 5star
- D
- 13.8
- 3star
- K
- 4.8
- 2star
- HB
- 9.0
- 4star
- M
- 1.8
- 2star
- T
- 3.2
- 4star
- CL
- 2.8
- 4star
- D
- 11.2
- 3star
- K
- 7.8
- 3star
- HB
- 3.4
- 3star
- M
- 3.4
- 4star
- T
- 4.0
- 5star
- CL
- 0.4
- 3star
PLAYERCARDEND
On a side note, this also highlighted the year-to-year variance of the established SC content providers out there. Depending on the community you were aligned with, you might have been influenced to go all-in on Sicily, Hewett, Witts, Cripps and co., to eschew the one or the other etc., which might have seen you fly out of the starter’s gate...
John Longmire always felt more at ease at the racetrack for some reason
...or trip over your own feet...
That doesn't tickle, campaigners, I'll give you the hot tip...
... and play catch up all year.
We saw (and I’m going purely off memory here) that a couple of the Dr SC and FTTV content teams (both of which are outstanding) got left behind a bit at the start of the year. But there are two things to bear in mind there:
- When you select your starting sides, you’re basing it on expected outcomes, there are no guarantees. What would be the percentage play 8 years out of 10 might end up being a disadvantage in an outlier year, and there were some outlier elements to 2022.
- Over the long haul, cream tends to rise and those one-off impacts become less important. All of those operators were able to recover and finish the year off well, because over the journey they pulled the right rein more often than not and certainly more often than your average bear, resulting in expected outcome and actual outcome gradually converging.
I’m not going to pretend I have the answer, every year is different and separating out fundamental shifts from ephemera is not an easy task.
Try as he may, Dazzler was unable to explain how Charlie Comben went from being in 153% of teams to precisely 0 in a single display of abject shitness.
At the end of the day, the old golfer’s adage of playing it how it lies holds true. If life gives you lemons, make lemonade, if life gives you a bunch of low-cost, high prospect rookies, welcome to the jungle, gunners, if the cupboard is bare on that front but there are some juicy midpricers, then giddy up and hitch your wagon to Stupid Sexy Flanders, Finn Callaghan, Liam Jones
PLAYERCARDSTART
19
Liam Jones
- Age
- 33
- Ht
- 199cm
- Wt
- 98kg
- Pos.
- Def
Career
Season
Last 5
- D
- 9.4
- 2star
- K
- 6.5
- 3star
- HB
- 2.9
- 3star
- M
- 4.3
- 4star
- T
- 2.0
- 4star
- MG
- 134.5
- 2star
- D
- 7.6
- 2star
- K
- 6.1
- 3star
- HB
- 1.4
- 1star
- M
- 4.1
- 4star
- T
- 1.4
- 2star
- MG
- 116.3
- 2star
- D
- 9.4
- 3star
- K
- 7.4
- 3star
- HB
- 2.0
- 2star
- M
- 4.0
- 4star
- T
- 2.2
- 4star
PLAYERCARDEND
Live cross to G'n'R hardliners trying to resist the allure of a 250ker running around like an unregistered dog taking 37 marks a game and with more thirst than Robbo at an AFL awards night
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