Strategy 2024 Season Preview / Strategy

[Gavin Excell]

The 40 trades seems to be about keeping people engaged with the game amd ensuring clicks.
I agree with the sentiment posted earlier that you need to be aggressive early. You really want to be fielding a strong side in that first bye round which means trading early

 

[jdstorm]

The 40 trades seems to be about keeping people engaged with the game amd ensuring clicks.
I agree with the sentiment posted earlier that you need to be aggressive early. You really want to be fielding a strong side in that first bye round which means trading early

Or just picking players who don’t play opening round

 

[54Dogs]

Or just picking players who don’t play opening round

In theory this sound good now, in practice it will be interesting to see how many move to Rd 0 players when they smash out 150s with the free look

 

[jdstorm]

In theory this sound good now, in practice it will be interesting to see how many move to Rd 0 players when they smash out 150s with the free look

Hahaha yeah exactly

Funny thing is that actually makes them worse value going forward because if you expect them to average say 105. Then they’ve already used up some of their variability and it’s lowered their going forward average by about 2 points

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Or just picking players who don’t play opening round

Picking Round 0 rookies though is not so bad

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Picking Round 0 rookies though is not so bad

Especially Melbourne/Richmond rookies. Could well be traded out at their bye.

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Especially Melbourne/Richmond rookies. Could well be traded out at their bye.

This 100% they have the chance to play 6 games before the bye and could make some serious coin in that time.

 

[dabombers]

Especially Melbourne/Richmond rookies. Could well be traded out at their bye.

I would also add these two teams midpricers could be golden.
Trading one Rookie and one MP to a Round 0 premium who has had their bye.

Targets would be Round 12 Premiums from Swans, Lions or Giants.
This seems a good bye or better than Rd 14 & 15.

The Round 14 and 15 bye having 6 teams in each would only be targets if you were planning a bye trade swap move.
Which I have thought about doing with 8 trades and two Boosts.

Means a rigid plan which is not the way I play usually.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

I would also add these two teams midpricers could be golden.
Trading one Rookie and one MP to a Round 0 premium who has had their bye.

Targets would be Round 12 Premiums from Swans, Lions or Giants.
This seems a good bye or better than Rd 14 & 15.

The Round 14 and 15 bye having 6 teams in each would only be targets if you were planning a bye trade swap move.
Which I have thought about doing with 8 trades and two Boosts.

Means a rigid plan which is not the way I play usually.

Yeah Billings could be a good candidate to upgrade at this point. Becomes tricky if he has a low BE though, might want to hold him if he's going 80+. But could use a combination of Billings, Gibcus, Windsor, Laurie to get Daicos off his bye as an example.

Worth noting the DPP changes don't come in until AFTER round 6 this year, which might make it harder to move players around.

 

[dabombers]

Yeah Billings could be a good candidate to upgrade at this point. Becomes tricky if he has a low BE though, might want to hold him if he's going 80+. But could use a combination of Billings, Gibcus, Windsor, Laurie to get Daicos off his bye as an example.

Worth noting the DPP changes don't come in until AFTER round 6 this year, which might make it harder to move players around.

On DPP we should have some reasonable numbers to predict who will or won’t get DPP status.
There will of course be a few guys that will be right on the borderline and waiting the extra round for these guys may be the smarter move.

Imagine how the season could change if Bont and Trac get Mid/Fwd DPP.

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

In theory this sound good now, in practice it will be interesting to see how many move to Rd 0 players when they smash out 150s with the free look

Could look at it the other way. Say Petracca goes 160 in round one, that's one of his monster scores you miss out on.

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

I just can't find any premos I want down back besides Sinclair and Stewart or up forward besides Macrae (and even that's getting tested...)

Strongly thinking of going 6 big boy midfielders.

 

[buttox]

I just can't find any premos I want down back besides Sinclair and Stewart or up forward besides Macrae (and even that's getting tested...)

Strongly thinking of going 6 big boy midfielders.

I'm doing exactly that.
Don't try to create previous years structure.
Sc has been won before by a bloke who started 2 premo mids.
Be flexible

 

[Choppers]

I just can't find any premos I want down back besides Sinclair and Stewart or up forward besides Macrae (and even that's getting tested...)

Strongly thinking of going 6 big boy midfielders.

Sinclair won't play any of the praccy games.....with a calf complaint..

 

[dabombers]

I just can't find any premos I want down back besides Sinclair and Stewart or up forward besides Macrae (and even that's getting tested...)

Strongly thinking of going 6 big boy midfielders.

I currently have 5 big boy midfield.
Martin(Ess) to flip to defence Rd 7 and looking at players for M7 from Will Brodie + $170k ITB all the way up to Matt Crouch + $0 ITB with only one rookie onfield. Guess who?

Most are also Rd 15 bye players so bye flipping plan is on the cards.

Only 2 Premo defence. With Zilliams and Rookies

Big Boy Rucks.

And low tier Mid pricer Fwds with DPP rookies.

Idea is I don’t want to work to get a strong midfield I want it early and i want the beasts.
Also I have included 4 Gun midfielders who have been close to getting Fwd DPP in the past only just missing out by a few % of game-time by less than 5% or less.
If they are used as resting FWD’s instead of bench time this could solve the FWD line problem in RD 7 on.
If they stay as mids they are the top of the pops there anyway.

I will be using my Midfield rookies (usually the highest price risers there) to go hard and fast on filling DEF and FWD lines after first mini bye season and during RD’s 7-12.
Chasing Breakevens is number one rule this year for myself.

Total team structure is: DEF to FWD’s
10 Uber Premos 2/6/2/0
Midpricers 1/1/0/2
Rookies 3/1/0/4
Bench of course 8 Rookies but a few above the $123k mark.

I expect 6-8 upgrade targets to be $600-650k (worst case scenario)
And 6-8 upgrades $500-550k.
This will also be creating bench coverage Premos.
Reducing my Midfield targets who usually take 3 trades to get to $600k plus players and moving the upgrades to Fwd and Def which should be 2-2.5 trades averaged out, I am thinking this strategy saves 10 trades during the season over a more even spread team. Which I will use for shorting stocks.

Currently $170k ITB I call this the Daicos savings account for RD-6 trade. As he will be my 1st or 2nd premo target depending on price rises for bench Rookies.

My thinking is I want the first 7 rounds of data for DEF and FWD upgrade targets. Also I think they are easier to upgrade to price wise, than MID’s and RUCKS.

The place where I have always been left with a borderline players at M7 & M8.
I may even go and Upgrade to M9 before other lines with the use of extra trades and Boosts over the Big Byes (Rd 12-15) for depth and fixture swinging or short term injury coverage.

Still sticking with plan to Upgrade FWD line last as mentioned in earlier posts.

I will not be waiting for players to get to $150k profit !!
I don’t believe that this is viable anymore ( It may depend on team structure or DPP changes through the season though as well as timing breakout candidates).

Instead I will be shorting stocks on Rookies and chasing Breakevens for quick money. Hard and Fast.

PS. If this season is like last year I may need the extra 10 trades to use on Rucks, think I used 8 last year which screwed my season up.

 

[jdstorm]

I currently have 5 big boy midfield.
Martin(Ess) to flip to defence Rd 7 and looking at players for M7 from Will Brodie + $170k ITB all the way up to Matt Crouch + $0 ITB with only one rookie onfield. Guess who?

Most are also Rd 15 bye players so bye flipping plan is on the cards.

Only 2 Premo defence. With Zilliams and Rookies

Big Boy Rucks.

And low tier Mid pricer Fwds with DPP rookies.

Idea is I don’t want to work to get a strong midfield I want it early and i want the beasts.
Also I have included 4 Gun midfielders who have been close to getting Fwd DPP in the past only just missing out by a few % of game-time by less than 5% or less.
If they are used as resting FWD’s instead of bench time this could solve the FWD line problem in RD 7 on.
If they stay as mids they are the top of the pops there anyway.

I will be using my Midfield rookies (usually the highest price risers there) to go hard and fast on filling DEF and FWD lines after first mini bye season and during RD’s 7-12.
Chasing Breakevens is number one rule this year for myself.

Total team structure is: DEF to FWD’s
10 Uber Premos 2/6/2/0
Midpricers 1/1/0/2
Rookies 3/1/0/4
Bench of course 8 Rookies but a few above the $123k mark.

I expect 6-8 upgrade targets to be $600-650k (worst case scenario)
And 6-8 upgrades $500-550k.
This will also be creating bench coverage Premos.
Reducing my Midfield targets who usually take 3 trades to get to $600k plus players and moving the upgrades to Fwd and Def which should be 2-2.5 trades averaged out, I am thinking this strategy saves 10 trades during the season over a more even spread team. Which I will use for shorting stocks.

Currently $170k ITB I call this the Daicos savings account for RD-6 trade. As he will be my 1st or 2nd premo target depending on price rises for bench Rookies.

My thinking is I want the first 7 rounds of data for DEF and FWD upgrade targets. Also I think they are easier to upgrade to price wise, than MID’s and RUCKS.

The place where I have always been left with a borderline players at M7 & M8.
I may even go and Upgrade to M9 before other lines with the use of extra trades and Boosts over the Big Byes (Rd 12-15) for depth and fixture swinging or short term injury coverage.

Still sticking with plan to Upgrade FWD line last as mentioned in earlier posts.

I will not be waiting for players to get to $150k profit !!
I don’t believe that this is viable anymore ( It may depend on team structure or DPP changes through the season though as well as timing breakout candidates).

Instead I will be shorting stocks on Rookies and chasing Breakevens for quick money. Hard and Fast.

PS. If this season is like last year I may need the extra 10 trades to use on Rucks, think I used 8 last year which screwed my season up.

There’s a small flaw in your plan.

If your Mid/Forward mids do get dpp (and Martin) then your going to have a 3 midfield structure which is pretty lite.

It’s a good problem to have but budgeting for saved trades to burn through for money doesn’t seem wise when you’re going with an 8 premium structure and needing to potentially find 5 premium mids

 

[dabombers]

There’s a small flaw in your plan.

If your Mid/Forward mids do get dpp (and Martin) then your going to have a 3 midfield structure which is pretty lite.

It’s a good problem to have but budgeting for saved trades to burn through for money doesn’t seem wise when you’re going with an 8 premium structure and needing to potentially find 5 premium mids

So say I have who I think are 5 of the top 10 Mids by Average already. Then at best 3 of them get moved to say Fwd DPP status.
Then I don’t need to focus as much on the top 10 as 5 are already mine.
I can move focus to players ranked by average 10-25.

So lets do some forecasting as an exercise.
Take out Nick Daicos as he already has DPP M/D. From the top 10 mids.
We now are looking at getting in one less top 10 Avg player into Midfield.

Last season Butters was a F/M and may regain that status.
Also add that both Bont and Petracca were both close.

That is now 4 of the Top 10 Mids who may not be in the midfield after Round 7.

Another rumour on a possible top 10-20 midfield player is Parish, who has mentioned somewhere (don’t have exact source on hand so consider it here say for now) that instead of spending time on the bench may just be taking a resting role in the fwd line.
I think a few midfielders may do this as part of the rotations.

I would put forward an idea that a percentage of players who lost their DPP status either M/F, R/F, D/M or D/F may regain that status as well a few new ones.

This could easily be done if players rotate of Half-Back or Half-Forward at centre bounce stoppages.

Lets go one more step.
Say the average centre bounces is 30 per game or less.
If @ 30 CB’s a player is rotated out of 11 of them to another line they his that magic number.
That means 180 two team scores from goals.
I would consider this high scoring in modern footy and anything higher is now an outlier.
More games would be less than 30 goals per game.
So this decreases the 11 not at Centre stoppages in a downwards trajectory and therefore easier to achieve.

Maybe if anyone had the different STD Deviations of scoring via goals over the last 2-3 seasons. This could be worked out more precisely.

 

[dabombers]

There’s a small flaw in your plan.

If your Mid/Forward mids do get dpp (and Martin) then your going to have a 3 midfield structure which is pretty lite.

It’s a good problem to have but budgeting for saved trades to burn through for money doesn’t seem wise when you’re going with an 8 premium structure and needing to potentially find 5 premium mids

Think you miss read my breakdown.
I have 10 Uber Premiums,
4 Midpricers
And 16 rookies all up. 8 on bench of course.
I have less Premiums from the 11-13 teams as I have the Midpricers and a fair few of the $150-210k Rookie priced players.

 

[Lord De Goey]

So say I have who I think are 5 of the top 10 Mids by Average already. Then at best 3 of them get moved to say Fwd DPP status.
Then I don’t need to focus as much on the top 10 as 5 are already mine.
I can move focus to players ranked by average 10-25.

So lets do some forecasting as an exercise.
Take out Nick Daicos as he already has DPP M/D. From the top 10 mids.
We now are looking at getting in one less top 10 Avg player into Midfield.

Last season Butters was a F/M and may regain that status.
Also add that both Bont and Petracca were both close.

That is now 4 of the Top 10 Mids who may not be in the midfield after Round 7.

Another rumour on a possible top 10-20 midfield player is Parish, who has mentioned somewhere (don’t have exact source on hand so consider it here say for now) that instead of spending time on the bench may just be taking a resting role in the fwd line.
I think a few midfielders may do this as part of the rotations.

I would put forward an idea that a percentage of players who lost their DPP status either M/F, R/F, D/M or D/F may regain that status as well a few new ones.

This could easily be done if players rotate of Half-Back or Half-Forward at centre bounce stoppages.

Lets go one more step.
Say the average centre bounces is 30 per game or less.
If @ 30 CB’s a player is rotated out of 11 of them to another line they his that magic number.
That means 180 two team scores from goals.
I would consider this high scoring in modern footy and anything higher is now an outlier.
More games would be less than 30 goals per game.
So this decreases the 11 not at Centre stoppages in a downwards trajectory and therefore easier to achieve.

Maybe if anyone had the different STD Deviations of scoring via goals over the last 2-3 seasons. This could be worked out more precisely.

I don't believe Bont was close at all last season. I think you'll find if they do get fwd status they also aren't going to maintain their averages that make them the top 5 mids. Pretracca probably could, although id expect a slight decline if he did spend more time forward, but someone like Butters would definitely drop off a tad if he spends more time forward.

 

[dabombers]

I don't believe Bont was close at all last season. I think you'll find if they do get fwd status they also aren't going to maintain their averages that make them the top 5 mids. Pretracca probably could, although id expect a slight decline if he did spend more time forward, but someone like Butters would definitely drop off a tad if he spends more time forward.

I think you may have missed the posts on (Twitter or X) whatever you want to call it.
There have been a few posts about instead of some of the super fit players sitting on the Bench cooling down, which then increases risk of muscular injuries like hammies, calf strains etc.
Sports scientists have found that these elite athletes just need to go at 80-90% for 5 minutes and it reduces these types of injuries.

For those old enough to have seen games from the 70’s, 80’s and even part of the 90’s, bench players were hardly used. The best 18 stayed on field and only went of if dead or needed to go to hospital.
Even concussions or punctured lung were not a good enough reason to be benched.

Most teams now really have 3-4 full midfield sides in there game day side with 9-12 players who could attend CBA’s. Where do they all go? To the bench! You want your best players playing above 90% game time on field and if that means a little rest on the wing or half fwd thats what the coaches will do with their top endurance and performance players.

 

[Lord De Goey]

I think you may have missed the posts on (Twitter or X) whatever you want to call it.
There have been a few posts about instead of some of the super fit players sitting on the Bench cooling down, which then increases risk of muscular injuries like hammies, calf strains etc.
Sports scientists have found that these elite athletes just need to go at 80-90% for 5 minutes and it reduces these types of injuries.

For those old enough to have seen games from the 70’s, 80’s and even part of the 90’s, bench players were hardly used. The best 18 stayed on field and only went of if dead or needed to go to hospital.
Even concussions or punctured lung were not a good enough reason to be benched.

Most teams now really have 3-4 full midfield sides in there game day side with 9-12 players who could attend CBA’s. Where do they all go? To the bench! You want your best players playing above 90% game time on field and if that means a little rest on the wing or half fwd thats what the coaches will do with their top endurance and performance players.

I’m aware of players resting forward but that’s hardly enough of the split required to get DPP. Something drastic would have to happen for Bont, Parish, Butters or Petracca (he would be most likely imo) to get forward status.

 

[jdstorm]

Think you miss read my breakdown.
I have 10 Uber Premiums,
4 Midpricers
And 16 rookies all up. 8 on bench of course.
I have less Premiums from the 11-13 teams as I have the Midpricers and a fair few of the $150-210k Rookie priced players.

I didn’t misread your plan.

What I’m saying is this.

Mids=rucks >defenders > forwards

The goal is to get the 22 best scoring players by the end of the season.

A player is categorised by the lowest position they have ranking in ie a Def/Fwd keeper is a forward since the 7th ranked Defender wil most likely have a better average then the 7th ranked Forward

So say Bont/Trac/Butters all get forward status. You won’t keep them in the midfield and upgrade to premium forwards that are cheap. You will move them into the forward line and get the next highest scoring mids to fill out your midfield.

If you start 4 premium mids + Martin and 4 of those players get DPP and become premiums on other lines then essentially you have started 1 premium midfielder.

There’s nothing wrong with that it’s a good plan but you will need to have a plan to bring in 7 premium mids in terms of trades which is what im saying

Edit: by your own trade math it costs 3 trades to bring in a premium mid vs 2 for a defender/forward.

So if you need to upgrade 7 mids because your plan worked that’s 21 trades, + 8 starters = 15 premiums

22-15 = 7 remaining premiums x 2 trades each upgrade = 14 trades.

So that’s 35 trades needed to upgrade your side to completion using this Guns and Rookies approach.

3 trades for corrections and that’s 2 trades left for any injury issues that may arise.

The trade math works to some degree but it’s far too risky for me.

 

[dabombers]

I didn’t misread your plan.

What I’m saying is this.

Mids=rucks >defenders > forwards

The goal is to get the 22 best scoring players by the end of the season.

A player is categorised by the lowest position they have ranking in ie a Def/Fwd keeper is a forward since the 7th ranked Defender wil most likely have a better average then the 7th ranked Forward

So say Bont/Trac/Butters all get forward status. You won’t keep them in the midfield and upgrade to premium forwards that are cheap. You will move them into the forward line and get the next highest scoring mids to fill out your midfield.

If you start 4 premium mids + Martin and 4 of those players get DPP and become premiums on other lines then essentially you have started 1 premium midfielder.

There’s nothing wrong with that it’s a good plan but you will need to have a plan to bring in 7 premium mids in terms of trades which is what im saying

That is the plan and why I would start with those possible DPP moving midfielders.
Or maybe the plan is not to start them and wait for their prices to fall as they wont be at as many CBA’s.

Or maybe you just need a hug jdstorm you seem to be very disagreeable to any idea I have put forward which is cool. Good to get a second set of eyes on ideas and I enjoy critical thinking.

But if you come at me again I will turn you into my gimp.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

 

[dabombers]

I didn’t misread your plan.

What I’m saying is this.

Mids=rucks >defenders > forwards

The goal is to get the 22 best scoring players by the end of the season.

A player is categorised by the lowest position they have ranking in ie a Def/Fwd keeper is a forward since the 7th ranked Defender wil most likely have a better average then the 7th ranked Forward

So say Bont/Trac/Butters all get forward status. You won’t keep them in the midfield and upgrade to premium forwards that are cheap. You will move them into the forward line and get the next highest scoring mids to fill out your midfield.

If you start 4 premium mids + Martin and 4 of those players get DPP and become premiums on other lines then essentially you have started 1 premium midfielder.

There’s nothing wrong with that it’s a good plan but you will need to have a plan to bring in 7 premium mids in terms of trades which is what im saying

Edit: by your own trade math it costs 3 trades to bring in a premium mid vs 2 for a defender/forward.

So if you need to upgrade 7 mids because your plan worked that’s 21 trades, + 8 starters = 15 premiums

22-15 = 7 remaining premiums x 2 trades each upgrade = 14 trades.

So that’s 35 trades needed to upgrade your side to completion using this Guns and Rookies approach.

3 trades for corrections and that’s 2 trades left for any injury issues that may arise.

The trade math works to some degree but it’s far too risky for me.

Just to keep the peace.
No harm is intended.
Just a bit of fun and maybe some adrenaline still spiking in my bloodstream from being in the Mosh Pit for ‘Queens of the Stone Age’
Monday night.

Hey jdstorm can you go and have a look at the posts and dates of them by looking up my history.
I only post in two places so far this year and it is Strategy and Mid Priced Madness.

Reason I say look it up is you are repeating points back at me that I have already put down on paper.

And I hate having my own words and ideas used as points like you are trying to teach me something I have already written about extensively.

Example the ratings of players. I wrote about that in strategy with the idea of going a zero premium forward line and gave a run down of how many trades each line is to get a premium in as a breakdown.

Then I watch some silly youtubers repeat my words back just days after my post.

Please read my history of posts and see the story unfold as a whole picture instead of picking it apart as a single comment.