- Nov 23, 2015
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After 24 rounds of home & away, it's first versus fourth and a wholly-Sydney affair as the Swans host the Giants at the SCG to see who goes straight through to a preliminary final. Sydney has had a whale of a season. After hitting top spot in round 8, they never relinquished it, to sit atop the ladder. However, while they had a fabulous winning streak in the middle of the season, they also had a late-season conniption with three losses in a row between rounds 19 and 21. Still, with all of their star players in, they are a formidable team. Isaac Heeney has played probably his best season, while Errol Gulden, Chad Warner and Nick Blakey have all had outstanding individual seasons.
The Giants had an early season winning streak, hitting the top of the ladder for five rounds early in the season, but then hit a mid-season slump that put a finals berth in doubt. A late-season revival that included a record-equalling seven wins in a row dragged us into the top 4, before a disappointing last-round loss to Bulldogs (away at windy Ballarat, while missing several key players). Arguably, though, we snuck home by the skin of our teeth in a few games, which is a lot less positive that some of the Swans big wins. Nonetheless, we are in finals, and hardened for battle.
Giants have a great finals record against Sydney, winning all three finals that have been played. Including the famous 2016 victory - another first versus fourth match, and our first ever finals match (and win, of course!) However, in recent games, the Swans hold an emphatic 4-1 record in recent form, including 2-0 this year. So, definitely the odds will be with them.
Most importantly, we need to stop nodding off for a quarter in every game, during which our opposition pile on a winning run of goals. if Kingers' line about gradual improvement means anything, that problem will be eliminated, and we'll bring a four-quarter effort.
Teams
Swans expect Papley, McCartin, McInerny and Heeney to return from injury for the QF from those missing in round 24, putting them pretty much at full strength. Similarly, GWS expect to regain Daniels and Ash, possibly Bedford, and have Isaac Cumming available, so pretty close to full strength also. That should make for a cracker of a game. The game is likely to swing on the battle of the midfields. The full-strength Swans midfield has got the better of ours in the two games this year. However, in the first game we lost Tom Green after about 10 minutes, while in the second we were in our slump and the Swans their golden patch. But if our mids get smashed in the contest, it will be an easy win for Sydney.
Our attack has been in good form, with Hogan winning the Coleman medal, and Toby still kicking a quite reasonable 41 goals for the year. There has been a spread of goalkickers, with Aaron Cadman starting to step up (26 goals this year), and players such as Brent Daniels (23) also kicking goals. Riccardi - if his finger is fixed by the game date, and can come back into the team - also kicked 26 goals. Our talls will spread the Swns defence, though if McCartin and Rampe are back in, they will figure they can hold up defensively. We do need to increase the number of inside 50s we can achieve, however, important to maintain how effective our inside 50 targetting is. Hopefully Kingers has a Plan B to manage if Jesse is double-teamed, as surely Sydney will look at what he's done this year and try to prevent that. Therefore, important that Cadman and either Keeffe or Riccardi (if he returns) plus Greene are used as options, while the small brigade in Daniels, Jones and McMullin (or Harvey Thomas) can attack the crumbing contest with vigour.
Our defence should be settled, with Taylor, Buckley, Himmelberg and Idun locking the tall defence. As we've seen in past weeks, HH can be the weak link there, particularly in contested situations and when pressure is put on. In terms of blunting our rebound attack, James Jordan has done a good job in past games on tagging Lachie Whitfield. The return of Ash will be welcome news in offering an alternative source of rebound run, but Lachie needs to do more to fight through any tag.
So, what I'm expecting/hoping for us is something like:
Connor Idun, Sam Taylor, Harry Himmelberg
Lachie Whitfield, Jack Buckley, Harry Perryman
Finn Callaghan, Josh Kelly, Callan Ward
Kieren Briggs, Tom Green, Stephen Coniglio
Brent Daniels, Jake Riccardi, Toby Greene
Aaron Cadman, Jesse Hogan, Darcy Jones
IC: Lachie Ash, James Peatling, Toby Bedford, Toby McMullin.
What do others think?
EDIT: Corrected the omission of Cadman & Jones from 22
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