AFL 2024 - AFL Opening Round

[balmainforever]

 

[dontlimitme]

Chandler 2+
McCarthy 2+
Koschitzke 2+
Callum Brown 2+
$113.93 SB boosted

TAILED

 

[burge13]

anyone gonna be running Pointsbets spreads this year i did late last year and was just doing like $1 on overs, if any of yall are what approaches/strategies are you going with this year?

I don't do them often but I always look for lower totals. Usually a pocket who 'should' kick a goal then you hope they work up the ground for touches or a mid with plenty of touches and hope they kick a goal. Feels better risk mitigation than taking overs on some 150+ line

 

[Fayab99]

Tempted by tigers line

 

[Selim]

I don't do them often but I always look for lower totals. Usually a pocket who 'should' kick a goal then you hope they work up the ground for touches or a mid with plenty of touches and hope they kick a goal. Feels better risk mitigation than taking overs on some 150+ line

yea thats what i was doing aswell going for the people in the 30s and 40s sometimes 50, honestly sticking with them and maybe putting $2 instead of $1 could actually add up to being something good not sure yet will see what points bet offer aswell

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Got my free $10 SGM bonus bet from SB, select customers only.

 

[Jatz]

Got my free $10 SGM bonus bet from SB, select customers only.

Yep, got that too. Will no doubt throw it on something ridiculous.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Yep, got that too. Will no doubt throw it on something ridiculous.

Can split it and bet on other markets in that game too I think

 

[bulletride]

Got my free $10 SGM bonus bet from SB, select customers only.

Looks like they are doing the $50 free swing multis on every game this round too. Every NRL game as well

 

[gillon]

Billings 2+ @ $6
3+ $21

@ SB

He will kick 0.2 or 1.3 but I like his value

 

[dontlimitme]

Looks like they are doing the $50 free swing multis on every game this round too. Every NRL game as well

 

[dontlimitme]

 

[toenail11]

Heeney 2
C Cameron 2
Koschitzke 2
Bob hill 2
C. Brown 2
@108 sb

Tailed billings and chandler

 

[dontlimitme]

heeney gonna play a ton of mid this week probably?

 

[fpm84]

Used my SB free hit for Thursday night on:

Petracca 25+
Viney 20+
Lloyd 20+
Jordon 15+
Gawn 15+
McLean AGS
Neal-Bullen AGS
Chandler AGS
Hayward AGS
@14.25

 

[Suncraze]

Blues +46.5
Tiges +41.5
Dees +20.5
5u $1.91 TAB

 

[dontlimitme]

Blues +46.5
Tiges +41.5
Dees +20.5
5u $1.91 TAB

the king hath returned to bless us

 

[Bucking Bronco]

I feel like Gold Coast are the side and will win 20+.

They are a different side at Metricon (7-2 at the line there last year).

Throw out their pre-season performances at Brighton Homes Arena, etc.

 

[Rank]

Van Rooyen 2
McKay 2
Bedford 2
Ainsworth 2
@67 SB

 

[Fayab99]

I have run my advanced model and it's spat out the following for opening round and round 1 ,

1u Melbourne SU @1.90
1u Brisbane SU + Essendon SU @ 2.00
1u Richmond +49.5 + Port Adelaide 40+ @ 1.95

These are locks will be shocked if any lose

 

[Suncraze]

I have run my advanced model and it's spat out the following for opening round and round 1 ,

1u Melbourne SU @1.90
1u Brisbane SU + Essendon SU @ 2.00
1u Richmond +49.5 + Port Adelaide 40+ @ 1.95

These are locks will be shocked if any lose

Are you long lost brothers with Fabab?

 

[HTPunter]

anyone gonna be running Pointsbets spreads this year i did late last year and was just doing like $1 on overs, if any of yall are what approaches/strategies are you going with this year?

As above, pockets & flankers. You get slightly inflated lines when they play worse teams but still think that’s the time there’s value.

I had good wins on ANB & Chandler v North (2nd game) and you would have smashed it on the likes of Rankine v North, Heeney v West Coast etc.

I don’t mind Connor Macdonald, Zorko, ANB, Gresham, Harmes types.
Also waiting for Boak round 1 v West Coast.
Depends on where they set the lines this year. But hoping none of those above 55, all could go 18ish & 2 round 1.

 

[HTPunter]

Essendon may well win but **** I would want $2 for them to win any game before betting on them, let alone in a multi.

They do normally start years of pretty well but on history and form lines they are a disgustingly gross football team.

Goldstein replacing Draper or teaming up doesn’t help their run, no Ridley, they still haven’t worked out their midfield mix, have too many skinny flanker types, and Stringer is still getting away with subpar training standards. Worst of all - they can’t score. They just go out there to overpossess the ball.

Like I said they may still win, mainly because Hawthorn aren’t much chop either, but to me good value betting isn’t always about winning - I’d want a lot more than $2 for a multi that has Essendon ML 1 leg.

 

[Suncraze]

If the Dons don't beat Hawks in Round 1

Essendon may well win but * I would want $2 for them to win any game before betting on them, let alone in a multi.

They do normally start years of pretty well but on history and form lines they are a disgustingly gross football team.

Goldstein replacing Draper or teaming up doesn’t help their run, no Ridley, they still haven’t worked out their midfield mix, have too many skinny flanker types, and Stringer is still getting away with subpar training standards. Worst of all - they can’t score. They just go out there to overpossess the ball.

Like I said they may still win, mainly because Hawthorn aren’t much chop either, but to me good value betting isn’t always about winning - I’d want a lot more than $2 for a multi that has Essendon ML 1 leg.

If Essendon don't win against the Hawks I'll give it up

 

[Fayab99]

Essendon may well win but * I would want $2 for them to win any game before betting on them, let alone in a multi.

They do normally start years of pretty well but on history and form lines they are a disgustingly gross football team.

Goldstein replacing Draper or teaming up doesn’t help their run, no Ridley, they still haven’t worked out their midfield mix, have too many skinny flanker types, and Stringer is still getting away with subpar training standards. Worst of all - they can’t score. They just go out there to overpossess the ball.

Like I said they may still win, mainly because Hawthorn aren’t much chop either, but to me good value betting isn’t always about winning - I’d want a lot more than $2 for a multi that has Essendon ML 1 leg.

Thank you for your opinion but I'll side with my advanced mathematical statistical model based on 1000's of data points and 6 years of redefining and perfecting. I'll stick with that over your opinion
thanks.

 

[dontlimitme]

Thank you for your opinion but I'll side with my advanced mathematical statistical model based on 1000's of data points and 6 years of redefining and perfecting. I'll stick with that over your opinion
thanks.