AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
I totally agree with you,
I sorta wanna add in Pendles as a roughie without Nick. He’s $15, crisp only polled 2 votes last year, and pendles always does ok on Brownlow night, his had some games where could steal a couple, would think maybe 2/3 in his 400th with the hype surrounding it.
i feel hewitt epitomises a guy who just doesn't catch the umps eye at all but
I did a bit of a look-in for umpire Andrew Stephens. He might have a tinge of bias when allocating the votes. No doubt about that. Could he want to deny one of the favourites a medal by denying them votes? Maybe. Denying Naicos votes last year in that game, and giving Neale votes, probably ended up deciding the medal- thats potentially a 2 to 3 vote swing right there. Stephens involved home games involving Neale, has resulted him polling in 11 of his last 12 games. Thats a strong correlation.Alright let me know your thoughts on this conspiracy
Been looking through possible umpire biases and the Neale one is intriguing.
Some of you might remember round 23, 2022 when Neale polled that random 1 vote in the final round to get him to a clear 2nd and almost catch Cripps.
That game was won in the first qtr and well and truly over by half time. Fritsch and Pickett miss out as leading goalscorers and even McCluggage was Brisbane’s best with 24 touches and 2 goals.
The umpires in that game were Stevic, Hosking and Andrew Stephens. Andrew Stephens seems to be the one. Grew up playing and umpiring in Brisbane. Went to Brisbane Grammar.
When he screwed the Saints in 2016 there was that controversy of favouritism:
I thought it was interesting that instead of claiming all umpires don’t have favourites, they just said he definitely wasn’t a Hawks supporter. But it makes sense that most umps would have a fave team. And from that you’d have to assume that if there was a player in the mix for winning a brownlow there will be a slight tendency to give them votes whenever they can, and at the very least not miss them when they’ve played half decent.
Got to officiate in 6 Brisbane games last year (gets more Brisbane home games than other umps due to living there I guess?):
Round 2 Brisbane v Melb
Neale definitely didn't deserve any votes but got 2. Ashcroft got the 3 as he should. Zorko so stiff got subbed when the lights went off but was bog at the time. Oliver 37 and a goal in a 10pt loss coming home strong. Even Dunkley was better than Neale throughout.
Round 4 Brisbane v Coll
Denied Daicos any votes when he had 38 touches and 2 goals. Gave Neale a vote for 22 touches no goals when Rayner had 17 and 4 goals?? other inside mids better than neale here
Round 7 Brisbane v Freo
Gives Neale the 2 here but probably fair.
Round 10 Brisbane v GC
Neale 3 but did win the medal so deserved.
Round 14 Brisbane v Sydney
Another Brisbane game for him, another Neale 3. Bailey deserved the 3 votes. Gulden deserved 2 but they went Parker instead.
Round 16 Brisbane v Richmond
Neale 3 votes. Probs fair.
Assuming this bias continues, looking at this year, he’s umpired another 6:
Round 0 Brisbane v Carlton
Neale could get votes in the end now that he's umpiring. Had 25 touches most for brisbane in the 1 point loss.
Round 3 Brisbane v Collingwood
20 point loss for Brisbane but Neale 35 1 goal could be enough to get 2 or 3 now
Round 10 Brisbane v Richmond
Huge win, the toss up between Zorko Neale Loman Daniher Cameron will probably go to Neale.
Round 16 Brisbane v Melbourne
Damn big game for him to be umpiring. Bris win by 5. Looked Like Dunkley and McCluggae were better than Neale, and Viney should be in the mix. Neale could pull surprise votes here out the wazoo.
Round 19 Brisbane v Sydney
Surely gets fired if gives Neale votes here. 18 touches 6 clearance surely not…
Round 22 Brisbane v GWS
Doubt he gets any here was held by Bedford. Interestingly it was Stephens that allowed Neale to play on to advantage when play had stopped in the 50 for him to stroll in and kick his goal.
Does make you wonder if it could go further. He umpired the Carlton St Kilda game which was the day after Neale likely gets his 3 against Essendon. Both the incorrect decisions on Cripps - one for throwing it when he'd handballed it and then the contentious in-the-back decision were made by Andrew Stephens.
I reckon he may be smarter than what we think.
Its a very good point you make. The question for me is how much love for Lachie Neale does this ump have for him or the better question is, how much does the ump not want Cripps to win? Cripps in 2020-23 only polled in 2 matches from 9 games with Stephens. And if you stretch it back to 2019 to 2023, he has awarded Cripps votes in 2 matches from 10 games. (20% strike rate in terms of polling votes with him in 5 seasons)
Andy is that you?
I know there are 4 umpires giving votes. Ive read a fair bit about the vote allocation process in the past. But he has an influence in those meetings. He seems like a pretty smart and intelligent man? UQ educated, Brisbane Grammar, Im assuming its some posh private school up there . Think numbers would be his thing with his engineering background. And after one of previous umpires got caught fixing a couple of years ago, nothing is off limits. It doesnt take much for a bit of insider information to get passed around. Where there is money involved especially involving past events- nothing can ever be considered clean.
I have Neale not polling at least a vote in 5 of those 6 GABBA games. I didnt factor into account the umpire appointments. Quite happy to stick with original count and maybe keep one on the side specifically for him in those games there. The dude has a history looking back even at 2022 for some unusual vote allocations.
Remember that game, bont was quiet af but kicked some late junk goals.
Treloar 3. Naughton was in everything, he and English the 2 and 1. Bont really shouldn’t be polling
Went 3) English 2) Treloar 1) Bont for Rd 3 WB V WCE on initial inspection.
Which betting app?
Tab.
I went back and did a 2nd review for that Round 0 . After the light of the umpire and wanting to review it for my own sake, Im quite happy to change that 3,2,1. I got influenced by James Brayshaws commentary on watching that on first time. He seemed to talk Cripps up a bit too much. 2 clearances deep into the 3rd quarter, and despite kicking a goal in the last quarter, he was off in that 4th quarter for around 6 and a half minutes when the game was on the line.
