Preview 2024 Elimination Final Carlton vs Brisbane Saturday 7th September 7:30PM AEST @ The Gabba

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carlton_99

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Prologue
The 2024 season has been a rollercoaster ride for us Carlton supporters. We vowed to be a more consistent home and away team and although I feel the gap between our best and worst has narrowed this is still a work in progress. A 4-0 start to the season had us up and about before a disappointing loss to the Crows at the death. Recovered to beat the undefeated Giants before going on a small slide winning only one of the next four. Then it looked like we had arrived with five wins in a row including a massive 63 point shellacking of the Cats in arguably our best performance of the decade. We were probably premiership favourites with the Swans at that point and had just started getting some players back from injury. Unfortunately, things shifted again with the Blues only winning one of the next six games. The pressure had dropped off, players were out of form and that hunger and intensity we saw in the opening months had dissipated. Injuries hit new highs before a massive final two weeks against the Eagles and the in-form Saints. Two wins would get us in but in typical Carlton fashion they made the fans sweat but we are here and I think there is a lot to take from that final fortnight of the season. The pressure and intensity was back especially inside 50, the midfield seemed to function far better and the youngsters were having a massive crack.

I have now spent 249 words to recap the season but in reality none of it really matters anymore. At the very core of every team’s ambitions at the start of any home and away season is to still be in the running for a premiership. And we have done that - is it the exact position we want to be in? No, of course not. But in the most even season in living memory anyone can win it and we have shown that our best football in 2024 is as good as any!

Introduction
It has been 346 days since we last saw the Blues in a final and it was against the very same opposition that we will encounter on Saturday night. Opening Round was nice but it’s time to get some proper revenge for the Preliminary Final in 2023. But, this is going to be an incredibly difficult task especially with it being at the Gabba. The Lions are currently on a 10-2 run over the last three months and have looked back to their best after a poor start to the season. They have a very healthy list with most players expected to be available this week and A-grade talent on every line.

I have seen a lot in the media give us no chance this week and I felt that was the general sentiment on here as well. BUT... I felt the news we received today shifted the mood massively amongst the supporter base and I absolutely love it. Sam Docherty our inspirational leader was announced as making his return after an ACL injury in Opening Round only 26-weeks ago. It is an extraordinary comeback but it is hard to be surprised anymore when we are talking about Doc. The energy he will bring to the team and the supporter base cannot be adequately put into words. But, I will say this - if the stakes of a do or die final weren’t enough for this playing group to bring the manic pressure and intensity our game is built on this Doc news will push them over the edge. And so I am going to discuss what I think are the keys to getting this W and keeping us in the hunt for #17 in 2024.

Key Matchups
Patrick Cripps Vs Josh Dunkley
After doing the preview for the Opening Round matchup against the Lions earlier this year I think it was pretty clear how much I love Josh Dunkley. I still think he is one of the most underrated players in the AFL and has been a massive get for the Lions. He is genuinely elite at everything - can crush you on the inside, do damage on the outside and can go forward and take a mark. But the area of his game I value the most is his work as a defensive midfielder which is where he has done his damage against us in the past. Cripps has had an extraordinary year and is the odds-on favourite for his second Brownlow medal and he will know what to expect when he lines up at the opening bounce on Saturday night. In his current form I have immense belief that he will be able to overcome this “tag” and have a massive impact in driving this team to a win. The improvement in his outside game this season hasn’t been spoken about enough in my opinion and this will go a long way to making him even more difficult to stop. I trust our Captain to get the job done against Dunkley and this leads me nicely to the next key matchup which is also in the midfield.

George Hewett Vs Lachie Neale
Lachie Neale is back in Brownlow form and is having another incredible season. He is Brisbane’s most important player with his work on the inside being critical to everything the Lions achieve. I know some on here have floated the idea of sending Cincotta to him and we do always have the option throughout the game but I would be starting with Hewett. George is in some incredible form since being left out of the team earlier this season and has done a great job on some of the oppositions’ best midfielders. Neale might have him for pace but I trust Hewett to bother him on the inside and disrupt his ability to get the ball to the outside runners like McLuggage. If Hewett can get this job done and Cripps gets on top of Dunkley I think it gives us a massive chance of winning the overall midfield battle and providing our forwards with plenty of opportunities in front of goal. With Walsh, Kennedy, E.Hollands, Lord, Docherty and potentially TDK/Cerra in there I think that is a really good mix which should reap rewards if we can get on top in those two key matchups.

Harry McKay (or Brodie Kemp) Vs Harris Andrews
The last matchup I want to discuss is a bit less set as we don’t yet know who will be available from the seven players listed as “tests” on the injury list released today. The key name that will impact this matchup in my opinion is TDK. If TDK comes in and can ruck alone I see Kemp holding this spot. Same thing if it is Pittonet solo rucking. However, if TDK comes in and they go with the two rucks to help support him I think Kemp will find his way out of the team just based on team balance. In no world do I think we should be going in with three tall defenders, three tall forwards AND two rucks. So if Kemp is out (or forced to play in defence) I think Andrews will go straight to Harry as he has in the last couple of encounters. Harry has been amongst our best players against the Lions in those last two matchups and has troubled Andrews deep in defence with his length. The key here will be to try isolate McKay/Andrews as close to the goal square as possible allowing Charlie to roam further up the ground. Although Andrews is having another great year I think this is a matchup that can suit us.

Alternatively, if Kemp does line up in the forward line I would be sending him straight to Andrews in a similar role to that he played against McGovern a fortnight ago. If Kemp limits Andrews’ intercepting game and keeps him away from Charlie and Harry who would then be on the Lions' second and third tall defenders it gives us a big chance of causing some damage up forward.

Team Selection
This is probably going to be the most intriguing team selection we will ever have with seven names (McKay, Curnow, McGovern, Williams, TDK, Cerra and Martin) all listed as tests on today’s injury report. This makes it incredibly difficult to predict the team the match committee will go with however we do have some pieces of information that help.

Firstly, we know that Docherty is a confirmed in and I am going to assume that he will be in the 22. Owies is the one known out due to Michael Christian/tribunal incompetence. We also have some hints from recent interviews with Voss and members of the playing group including Cripps. They have stated that they split the injuries into two groups: Group 1 (McKay, Curnow, McGovern and Williams) have all played most of the season and will be selected if they get through training, whilst Group 2 (TDK, Cerra and Martin) includes players that have missed significant stretches of football and therefore will be “riskier” selections.

And so based on this I think McKay, Curnow, McGovern and Williams will all be locks to return for this game against the Lions as long as they all get through training on Thursday. As Docherty has also been confirmed as another returnee after a long lay-off I think the club will pick one at most from that “Group 2” set (TDK, Cerra and Martin).

Based on all these factors this is what I have gone with as our 23 to take on the Lions on Saturday night:

FBLachie CowanLewis YoungMitch McGovern
HBNic NewmanJacob WeiteringAdam Saad
CBlake AcresPatrick CrippsSam Docherty
HFElijah HollandsHarry McKayZac Williams
FFJesse MotlopCharlie CurnowBrodie Kemp
FOLTom De KoningSam WalshGeorge Hewett
INTAlex CincottaOliver HollandsCooper LordMatt Kennedy
SUBAshton Moir

IN: Curnow, McKay, Docherty, Williams, McGovern & TDK
OUT: Carroll, C.Durdin, Owies, Binns, Fantasia & Pittonet

A few points that I want to make regarding this team:
  • I would only play TDK if he is fit enough to ruck the game with only Harry as support. If Pittonet is required as well I would be leaving TDK out and just letting Pittonet (who has been in good form the last fortnight) sole ruck. We generally look better with the one ruck and I think if we went with two it would mean sacrificing Kemp’s role as a third forward which could be vital if he lines up on Andrews.
  • I have left Cerra and Martin out just because of the amount of football they have missed this season meaning the risk profile is just a bit too high in my opinion.
  • Binns is very stiff to miss out but I just don’t see a wing role open for him with Acres, Docherty and O.Hollands (who will also get half back minutes) in the team. However, Lord keeps his spot in the 22 after impressive outings against the Eagles and Saints, whilst Moir stays as the sub where he has had impact in both games.
  • Toughest spot for me to pick was the forward pocket where I eventually settled with Motlop. I just think he has a better eye for goal compared to Durdin and Fantasia. However, I do think Durdin and Fantasia have been in better form which makes it extremely tough. Would be pretty content with any decision here by the match committee.
  • I have also included 8 defenders in this team if you include O.Hollands who has done some great work off half back in the last couple of weeks. This gives us some flexibility to move Cincotta up the ground if we require a different matchup on Neale or on one of their running half backs.
Tip
The Lions’ record at the Gabba is simply extraordinary over the last couple of years and with a near complete list of players available for selection this will be an extremely difficult match to win. I hope that the players returning from injury can perform at a high level and that we don’t let go of that pressure and intensity we saw in the last fortnight of the season. Bring that and we give ourselves every chance to topple the Lions. Come on Blues!

Blues by 9 points.
 
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Not how we would have wanted to get in and obviously would prefer to have some better form/health but I am taking it. Effort from the players has been very good the last fortnight - just some execution letting us down. Hopefully get a few back with the week off and give it our best against a tough Lions team.
 
So…we’re in. Don’t really know how to feel but we should go in with the mentality of a “free hit.”

We should have at least 5-6 back for the game, but I don’t really want to see any of the kids being dropped so that will suck.

Let’s hope Lions kick 7.25 and we have our kicking boots on.
 

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Gonna need a lot of mental toughness to turn up and compete.
Supporters and players both feel like we're just making up the numbers, and 'didn't make finals' after today's lost.

Big test of character for the group and the leadership.
 
Should be a couple of 'Ins'. Brisbane haven't been that good, but even with three or four good inclusions, we've lacked continuity, so I'm not overly optimistic.
 
In Curnow, McKay, Tdk, Gov
Out Motlop (omitted), Fantasia (omitted), Carroll (injured), Pittonet

Team is as follows:
Saad, Weitering, Gov
Cowan, Young, Newman
Ollie, Cripps, Acres
Elijah, McKay, Owies
Kemp, Curnow, Durdin
Tdk, Hewett, Walsh
Cincotta, Durdin, Lord, Binns
Moir (sub)
 
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