Position 2024 Fantasy Forwards

[WaynesWorld19]

Is Chris Burgess a chance of playing? WaynesWorld19

He was ....B4 the Club Drafted Dan Curtin ....Curtin might have taken Burgess's opportunity away from him ???

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Theres a good few pages on the dogs preseason board about Macrae, he is puzzling to figure out. Supporters don't seem to know either what role he plays or if hes cooked. I'll keep him at F1 for now but confidence isnt high, surely he can do 90 though. Link to discussion: Training - 2024 Pre-season training

Will certainty die on the anti Adams hill, not picking this fraud.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Theres a good few pages on the dogs preseason board about Macrae, he is puzzling to figure out. I'll keep him at F1 for now but confidence isnt high, surely he can do 90 though.

Will certainty die on the anti Adams hill, not picking this fraud.

Is pace and hurt factor the main issues with Macrae ?

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Is pace and hurt factor the main issues with Macrae ?

I can't figure it out, pace is definitely an issue though as is defensive accountability. His hurt factor is fine and is underrated, is a very neat kick i50. The Dogs had no forward line for a long time, now they do which helps Macrae. A combination of bevo+age regression makes it hard to pinpoint the exact issue. In Macrae's peak fantasy days 5 years ago, Macrae was the in and under guy but since they have had Bont, Libba, Dunkley hes been pushed to receiving the ball more rather than being the first possession player. If they can somehow make him that first possession winner again where pace isn't essential then he might rediscover some form. That being said its all guesswork and maybe we get some indication over preseason on his role/fitness.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

Only issue is his price.

I picked Ziebell up last year after two good scores for under $600K, Fisher starts at $640K @ 69.

A def watch for me I don't see him going 80+

Think he will

 

[JDWCE]

Fisher has the tools. It’s just whether or not this mckercher to half back thing eventuates and then whether or not Sheezel stays there too. All three of Sheezel, Mckercher and Fisher can’t defend so I fail to see how they all fit in that defence

 

[Barrybran]

Fisher has the tools. It’s just whether or not this mckercher to half back thing eventuates and then whether or not Sheezel stays there too. All three of Sheezel, Mckercher and Fisher can’t defend so I fail to see how they all fit in that defence

Surely Sheez plays FWD/MID this year? The 'young elite FWD/MID to DEF' role worked really well for the Roos last year so I can see them doing it again with McKercher and giving Sheezel an opportunity at a different role for his development.

I could be wrong but I expect Sheezel to be untouchable this year for this reason.

 

[tigs2010]

This line doesn’t get any easier the more you stare at it lol.

Everyone has ??

Macrae - probably must pick to follow crowd so doesn’t burn you.
Flanders - probably the safest but has that early bye. Has some upside depending on Dimmas game plan. Think his bye is so early and his price means he waits until after bye unless goes bananas R0.
Moore - such a meh pick. Maybe Ginni and Watson additions push him up the ground more.
Adams - maybe. His first bye is R5 so get 4 scores and 5 price rises and can then jump off. Unfortunately we won’t get the new positions before then. Will watch R0 and see how he goes.
Jackson - great bye but had Darcy. Is there upside on last years average? If Darcy goes down I’d be all in.
Daniel - probably maxed out and the Bevo factor.
Curnow/Bolton/Toby/Dusty/Schultz I don’t think any are good enough scorers or underpriced enough to overcome that extra early bye.

On the flip side rookies look very good. Reid, Duursma, Mannagh, Caddy, Watson, Wilson to name a few. Is 4 too many on this line though.

Lastly, where is Orazio at from a best 22/fitness perspective?

 

[TryAnHit]

This line doesn’t get any easier the more you stare at it lol.

Everyone has ??

Macrae - probably must pick to follow crowd so doesn’t burn you.
Flanders - probably the safest but has that early bye. Has some upside depending on Dimmas game plan. Think his bye is so early and his price means he waits until after bye unless goes bananas R0.
Moore - such a meh pick. Maybe Ginni and Watson additions push him up the ground more.
Adams - maybe. His first bye is R5 so get 4 scores and 5 price rises and can then jump off. Unfortunately we won’t get the new positions before then. Will watch R0 and see how he goes.
Jackson - great bye but had Darcy. Is there upside on last years average? If Darcy goes down I’d be all in.
Daniel - probably maxed out and the Bevo factor.
Curnow/Bolton/Toby/Dusty/Schultz I don’t think any are good enough scorers or underpriced enough to overcome that extra early bye.

On the flip side rookies look very good. Reid, Duursma, Mannagh, Caddy, Watson, Wilson to name a few. Is 4 too many on this line though.

Lastly, where is Orazio at from a best 22/fitness perspective?

Finally a year with a forward line that isn't premo mids. Last year was a joke.

 

[tigs2010]

Finally a year with a forward line that isn't premo mids. Last year was a joke.

Yeah no Leon Cameron last year playing his gun mids in the forward line for us this year.

Definitely see this being the make or break line.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Finally a year with a forward line that isn't premo mids. Last year was a joke.

Although, the first change in positions (fwd/mids) will occur in round 6 .....so have the R6 bye and new player positions to add to the mix

 

[tigs2010]

Although, the first change in positions (fwd/mids) will occur in round 6 .....so have the R6 bye and new player positions to add to the mix

Shame Adams bye isn’t at same time as the new DPP. I’d find him more enticing with a better exit strategy lol

 

[Barrybran]

This line doesn’t get any easier the more you stare at it lol.

Everyone has ??

Macrae - probably must pick to follow crowd so doesn’t burn you.
Flanders - probably the safest but has that early bye. Has some upside depending on Dimmas game plan. Think his bye is so early and his price means he waits until after bye unless goes bananas R0.
Moore - such a meh pick. Maybe Ginni and Watson additions push him up the ground more.
Adams - maybe. His first bye is R5 so get 4 scores and 5 price rises and can then jump off. Unfortunately we won’t get the new positions before then. Will watch R0 and see how he goes.
Jackson - great bye but had Darcy. Is there upside on last years average? If Darcy goes down I’d be all in.
Daniel - probably maxed out and the Bevo factor.
Curnow/Bolton/Toby/Dusty/Schultz I don’t think any are good enough scorers or underpriced enough to overcome that extra early bye.

On the flip side rookies look very good. Reid, Duursma, Mannagh, Caddy, Watson, Wilson to name a few. Is 4 too many on this line though.

Lastly, where is Orazio at from a best 22/fitness perspective?

Jackson is a tricky one for me. I don't see any upside in him but he should be a near-certain best-18 player in the bye rounds which might give you flexibility with players like Grundy. ie. trade Grundy out R5 and you're not tied to bringing in English/Marshall/Gawn.

 

[Exambolor]

This line doesn’t get any easier the more you stare at it lol.

Everyone has ??

Macrae - probably must pick to follow crowd so doesn’t burn you.
Flanders - probably the safest but has that early bye. Has some upside depending on Dimmas game plan. Think his bye is so early and his price means he waits until after bye unless goes bananas R0.
Moore - such a meh pick. Maybe Ginni and Watson additions push him up the ground more.
Adams - maybe. His first bye is R5 so get 4 scores and 5 price rises and can then jump off. Unfortunately we won’t get the new positions before then. Will watch R0 and see how he goes.
Jackson - great bye but had Darcy. Is there upside on last years average? If Darcy goes down I’d be all in.
Daniel - probably maxed out and the Bevo factor.
Curnow/Bolton/Toby/Dusty/Schultz I don’t think any are good enough scorers or underpriced enough to overcome that extra early bye.

On the flip side rookies look very good. Reid, Duursma, Mannagh, Caddy, Watson, Wilson to name a few. Is 4 too many on this line though.

Lastly, where is Orazio at from a best 22/fitness perspective?

Personally I'm loving the FWD line craziness, confirms that there will be different teams, and you'll be forced to pick small and tall forwards and not mids.

Another forward I'm keeping an eye on Hawks wise is Connor Mac, he'll be another candidate to move to the middle.

Macrae and Flanders are tough calls (Macrae has Bevo and the potentially cooked factor, and Flanders the early bye) but I feel like you can't fade both. I'm leaning towards Crae purely because of no early bye

F4/5/6 for me is pretty much locked, Reid, Durssma and Watson will all play

 

[tigs2010]

Jackson is a tricky one for me. I don't see any upside in him but he should be a near-certain best-18 player in the bye rounds which might give you flexibility with players like Grundy. ie. trade Grundy out R5 and you're not tied to bringing in English/Marshall/Gawn.

Yeah I’m not seeing a huge upside there. He’s pretty pricey. He’s unders if he was a sole ruck though so maybe we all pray for an injury to Darcy

Personally I'm loving the FWD line craziness, confirms that there will be different teams.

Another forward I'm keeping an eye on Hawks wise is Connor Mac, he'll be another candidate to move to the middle.

Macrae and Flanders are tough calls (Macrae has Bevo and the potentially cooked factor, and Flanders the early bye) but I feel like you can't fade both. I'm leaning towards Crae purely because of no early bye

F4/5/6 for me is pretty much locked, Reid, Durssma and Watson will all play

Macrae is nearly 40% owned. Not sure I want to test out the theory he’s cooked at this point. Still averaged over 90 with terrible role. Will see what comes of PS with him. If he struggles he’s an easy sideways to Flanders off his bye.

 

[Exambolor]

Yeah I’m not seeing a huge upside there. He’s pretty pricey. He’s unders if he was a sole ruck though so maybe we all pray for an injury to Darcy


Macrae is nearly 40% owned. Not sure I want to test out the theory he’s cooked at this point. Still averaged over 90 with terrible role. Will see what comes of PS with him. If he struggles he’s an easy sideways to Flanders off his bye.

Yeah agree on Crae, he's so highly owned there's no risk.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

Personally I'm loving the FWD line craziness, confirms that there will be different teams, and you'll be forced to pick small and tall forwards and not mids.

Or all rookies. If there’s 6-8 I’ll pick them all. Save cash for better scorers on other lines.

 

[4tune8]

James Harmes could be another MID/FWD to put on the watchlist. Mid priced and could be the beneficiary of no Bazlenka.

Also people will be forced to pick talls and smalls which will mix things up nicely

$637k too much for Harmes

This one has me flummoxed, I can't work out how that price of $637k was calculated. He's on my radar but should be priced at $406k which would make him a lock in my side with Bazlenka going down.

He played 9 games last season which means a 3% discount on that average of 46.8, so he should be priced at 45. If you look at his average on his profile then that shows 46.8

If the rules state that the higher average of the last 2 years is taken (I think it might) then that doesn't work either. He's currently priced at 70.6, his average in 2022 was 61, a 3% discount to that is 59 which would mean a price of $532k

The only thing that I can see that relates to an average of 70.6 is his average over the last 3 games of 2023 which is 70.7, funnily enough the exact same score that he's currently priced at.

 

[tigs2010]

This one has me flummoxed, I can't work out how that price of $637k was calculated. He's on my radar but should be priced at $406k which would make him a lock in my side with Bazlenka going down.

He played 9 games last season which means a 3% discount on that average of 46.8, so he should be priced at 45. If you look at his average on his profile then that shows 46.8

If the rules state that the higher average of the last 2 years is taken (I think it might) then that doesn't work either. He's currently priced at 70.6, his average in 2022 was 61, a 3% discount to that is 59 which would mean a price of $532k

The only thing that I can see that relates to an average of 70.6 is his average over the last 3 games of 2023 which is 70.7, funnily enough the exact same score that he's currently priced at.

That's a pretty big **** up if that's the case. Would be a perfect "maybe" option to add some differential to teams but realistically is priced too high.

 

[tigs2010]

Flanders is sooooo highly owned. 41% fmd.

 

[4tune8]

That's a pretty big * up if that's the case. Would be a perfect "maybe" option to add some differential to teams but realistically is priced too high.

The more I delve into this the more confused I'm getting, for example.....

I looked at other players who played 9 games for the year to see whether I could gain an insight into the pricing.

Weller___2023 ave. 83.8, priced at 81.3 = 3% discount
Ladhams_2023 ave. 76.2, priced at 76.0 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 74)
Flynn____2023 ave. 73.8, priced at 73.6 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 71.6)
Wagner__2023 ave. 72.8, priced at 72.6 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 70.6)
McGov___2023 ave. 70.3, priced at 70.1 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 68.2)
Xerri____ 2023 ave. 66.0, priced at 65.8 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 64.0)

I've only looked at the above 6 players because they all played 9 games but only 1 of them (Weller) has had the correct discount applied. I'll definitely be looking at more of those players that should be getting discounts.

The below is an outline of the discount rules for AFLF.

"Players have received a discount on their price if they played fewer than 10 games last season, with a discount of three per cent per game they played under 10. If they missed a whole season, they have received a 30 per cent discount on their price, which is applied to the higher average score of the past two seasons. If they miss 2 seasons then a 35% discount is applied, if they missed the last 3 seasons then a 40% discount is applied".

That last sentence brings into question Sam Naismith's price. He's missed the last 3 seasons so a 40% discount has to be applied to his average in 2020 which was 77 (I don't agree with it but them's tha rules) so he should be priced at 46.2 (77 - 40%) or $417k. He's currently priced at 57.7 or $521k, that only equates to a 25% discount. His correct price should be $417k.

 

[4tune8]

Flanders is sooooo highly owned. 41% fmd.

It'd be great if it stayed that way or even got larger, trouble is that the traders will say not to start any of those players with the rnd2 & 3 byes, then watch the % ownership plummet.

 

[tigs2010]

The more I delve into this the more confused I'm getting, for example.....

I looked at other players who played 9 games for the year to see whether I could gain an insight into the pricing.

Weller___2023 ave. 83.8, priced at 81.3 = 3% discount
Ladhams_2023 ave. 76.2, priced at 76.0 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 74)
Flynn____2023 ave. 73.8, priced at 73.6 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 71.6)
Wagner__2023 ave. 72.8, priced at 72.6 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 70.6)
McGov___2023 ave. 70.3, priced at 70.1 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 68.2)
Xerri____ 2023 ave. 66.0, priced at 65.8 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 64.0)

I've only looked at the above 6 players because they all played 9 games but only 1 of them (Weller) has had the correct discount applied. I'll definitely be looking at more of those players that should be getting discounts.

The below is an outline of the discount rules for AFLF.

"Players have received a discount on their price if they played fewer than 10 games last season, with a discount of three per cent per game they played under 10. If they missed a whole season, they have received a 30 per cent discount on their price, which is applied to the higher average score of the past two seasons. If they miss 2 seasons then a 35% discount is applied, if they missed the last 3 seasons then a 40% discount is applied".

That last sentence brings into question Sam Naismith's price. He's missed the last 3 seasons so a 40% discount has to be applied to his average in 2020 which was 77 (I don't agree with it but them's tha rules) so he should be priced at 46.2 (77 - 40%) or $417k. He's currently priced at 57.7 or $521k, that only equates to a 25% discount. His correct price should be $417k.

Need to do a deep dive and find out who got too much of a discount

Reckon they've rushed this to get it out pre-Xmas break

 

[happy_eagle]

That last sentence brings into question Sam Naismith's price. He's missed the last 3 seasons so a 40% discount has to be applied to his average in 2020 which was 77 (I don't agree with it but them's tha rules) so he should be priced at 46.2 (77 - 40%) or $417k. He's currently priced at 57.7 or $521k, that only equates to a 25% discount. His correct price should be $417k.

2020 averages probably adjusted for full length quarters. So his 77 was actually a 96.

 

[tigs2010]

The more I delve into this the more confused I'm getting, for example.....

I looked at other players who played 9 games for the year to see whether I could gain an insight into the pricing.

Weller___2023 ave. 83.8, priced at 81.3 = 3% discount
Ladhams_2023 ave. 76.2, priced at 76.0 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 74)
Flynn____2023 ave. 73.8, priced at 73.6 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 71.6)
Wagner__2023 ave. 72.8, priced at 72.6 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 70.6)
McGov___2023 ave. 70.3, priced at 70.1 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 68.2)
Xerri____ 2023 ave. 66.0, priced at 65.8 = 0.2% discount (should be priced at 64.0)

I've only looked at the above 6 players because they all played 9 games but only 1 of them (Weller) has had the correct discount applied. I'll definitely be looking at more of those players that should be getting discounts.

The below is an outline of the discount rules for AFLF.

"Players have received a discount on their price if they played fewer than 10 games last season, with a discount of three per cent per game they played under 10. If they missed a whole season, they have received a 30 per cent discount on their price, which is applied to the higher average score of the past two seasons. If they miss 2 seasons then a 35% discount is applied, if they missed the last 3 seasons then a 40% discount is applied".

That last sentence brings into question Sam Naismith's price. He's missed the last 3 seasons so a 40% discount has to be applied to his average in 2020 which was 77 (I don't agree with it but them's tha rules) so he should be priced at 46.2 (77 - 40%) or $417k. He's currently priced at 57.7 or $521k, that only equates to a 25% discount. His correct price should be $417k.

I've done Ladhams, Flynn & Wagner and they all seem to have a 3% discount working off magic number of approx 9026.

Harmes definitely looks a **** up where they've used his L3 instead of average though as it matches identical. He should be $410k approx.