Position 2024 Fantasy Rucks

[Phar Ace]

Round 0 sees the clash of "MATES"...... well former team mates at least GRUNDY vs GAWN. The massive plan of tag teaming Grundy with Gawn was a much heralded fail.

From a Fantasy perspective, we don't care how much Collingwood was paying of Grundy's salary, or even if any of that goes to Sydney now. We just want a durable ruck who can give a viable alternative to English or Marshall at a fraction of the cost. We are bargain hunting here! So we look first at last season:



Then Grundy's output the season before (2022):


And for good measure, the season before that (2021):


It's not a particularly deep dive. Impacts the big Cox and Darcy Cameron

14

Darcy Cameron

Age

29

Ht

204cm

Wt

103kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.0

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.7

2star

CL

0.3

2star

HO

5.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

3.0

2star

CL

0.5

3star

HO

3.5

5star

D

6.0

2star

K

3.3

2star

HB

2.7

3star

CL

0.3

2star

HO

5.3

5star

has had on his output could be looked at as well, but I doubt it will have a material effect on the following question:

If you are considering Brodie Grundy

4

Brodie Grundy

Age

30

Ht

202cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

HO

32.0

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.0

5star

HO

34.6

5star

D

13.8

4star

K

5.2

2star

HB

8.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

20.6

5star

for your Fantasy side, what do you need to see from him in the Mates Showdown in Sydney between Grundy and Gawn on Thursday March 7th?

 

[Phar Ace]

Huh? who cares how much they lose in value?...they're keepers.

Maybe 10 were, but the point was you can also very easily get the the wrong ones.

The thing about losing value is it reflects the scores they have NOT been getting that initially made them keepers. In other words, the highest value doesn't always reflect future value. At the beginning of the season, highest value is simply not as reliable, and that table of the highest value players by position at the beginning of 2023 bears it out superbly.

 

[happy_eagle]

I'm not denying their value. but they're not keepers. And as a dees fan, I watched Grundy closely and he is an absolute spud. He is so slow around the ground. The small scg ground may save him.

Yeh I am certainly going to need to see a decent Round 0 effort from Grundy before I pick him.

 

[Zevon]

Huh? who cares how much they lose in value?...they're keepers.

You hear phrases like “who cares how much value they'll lose, they’re keepers” or “you’ll want them in your team at some stage” a lot in fantasy.

Such phrases are mostly simple minded rubbish that people repeat just because they hear everyone else saying them.

At the start of 2022 we all thought we would need Touk and Steele in our teams at some stage. Did we?

At the start of 2023 we all thought we would need Laird and Oliver in our teams at some stage. Did we?

Just because somebody killed it in the previous season does not mean they’ll kill it the next season. Never mind that if one your players who falls into the category of “who cares how much value they’ll lose, they’re keepers” gets injured and you need to trade them out, suddenly you’ll care a lot if they’ve dropped a few hundred grand.

One of the most reliable rules in fantasy (and I mean actually reliable, not silly falsehoods like “who cares how much they cost, you’ll want them in your team at some stage”) is that paying top dollar for a fully priced player has very very rarely proven to be the correct strategy.

I can potentially, maybe, possibly, at a pinch see the merit in picking English OR Marshall (definitely not both) to start the season so you’ve got a reliable captain and you’re not messing around too much with a tricky ruck line. But those going with Grundy and Gawn or even Xerri are pursuing an equally, if not more, valid strategy.

 

[Lukesera]

Enough to not start English?

 

[danster168]

You hear phrases like “who cares how much value they'll lose, they’re keepers” or “you’ll want them in your team at some stage” a lot in fantasy.

Such phrases are mostly simple minded rubbish that people repeat just because they hear everyone else saying them.

At the start of 2022 we all thought we would need Touk and Steele in our teams at some stage. Did we?

At the start of 2023 we all thought we would need Laird and Oliver in our teams at some stage. Did we?

Just because somebody killed it in the previous season does not mean they’ll kill it the next season. Never mind that if one your players who falls into the category of “who cares how much value they’ll lose, they’re keepers” gets injured and you need to trade them out, suddenly you’ll care a lot if they’ve dropped a few hundred grand.

One of the most reliable rules in fantasy (and I mean actually reliable, not silly falsehoods like “who cares how much they cost, you’ll want them in your team at some stage”) is that paying top dollar for a fully priced player has very very rarely proven to be the correct strategy.

I can potentially, maybe, possibly, at a pinch see the merit in picking English OR Marshall (definitely not both) to start the season so you’ve got a reliable captain and you’re not messing around too much with a tricky ruck line. But those going with Grundy and Gawn or even Xerri are pursuing an equally, if not more, valid strategy.

well you listed a bunch of guys that got injured but yes Laird you needed in your team last year and Oliver would've been if not for injury.

the only rubbish being mentioned is picking value in each position. Guys like LDU. How did that go last year? he was never going to be a keeper and he was just a headache and a trade even if he didn't get injured. Having 22 value picks means you need 22 upgrade trades. Probably only a small percentage of value picks become keepers.

Going English and Marshall is a valid strategy. Who knows who gets injured but Grundy is an absolute scrub that hasn't played good footy in years. Gawn is the better choice there but what does the extra cash of going down to Gawn get you? The cash to upgrade a Wardlaw to a Simpkin/Guthrie? it's just not worth it.

That's not even mentioning the fact that both Grundy and Gawn play 1 less game.

 

[Barrybran]

well you listed a bunch of guys that got injured but yes Laird you needed in your team last year and Oliver would've been if not for injury.

the only rubbish being mentioned is picking value in each position. Guys like LDU. How did that go last year? he was never going to be a keeper and he was just a headache and a trade even if he didn't get injured. Having 22 value picks means you need 22 upgrade trades. Probably only a small percentage of value picks become keepers.

Going English and Marshall is a valid strategy. Who knows who gets injured but Grundy is an absolute scrub that hasn't played good footy in years. Gawn is the better choice there but what does the extra cash of going down to Gawn get you? The cash to upgrade a Wardlaw to a Simpkin/Guthrie? it's just not worth it.

That's not even mentioning the fact that both Grundy and Gawn play 1 less game.

LDU was a very good pick last year until he got injured. Then he was a very good pick again later in the year. Grundy will be a good pick as well until he gets injured. The point of picking value players though is the likelihood of achieving a higher score across your team than by picking everyone at or under value. So what if you have to trade 22 players? You've got 50 trades to use.

And English and Marshall aren't immune to injury either. The only relevance English and Marshall v Gawn and Grundy has is the extra bye and what else you can do with your team.

 

[Barrybran]

Enough to not start English?

I wouldn't think so. If Lobb is being pushed out of the forward line he's likely going to find himself playing in the VFL.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

well you listed a bunch of guys that got injured but yes Laird you needed in your team last year and Oliver would've been if not for injury.

the only rubbish being mentioned is picking value in each position. Guys like LDU. How did that go last year? he was never going to be a keeper and he was just a headache and a trade even if he didn't get injured. Having 22 value picks means you need 22 upgrade trades. Probably only a small percentage of value picks become keepers.

Going English and Marshall is a valid strategy. Who knows who gets injured but Grundy is an absolute scrub that hasn't played good footy in years. Gawn is the better choice there but what does the extra cash of going down to Gawn get you? The cash to upgrade a Wardlaw to a Simpkin/Guthrie? it's just not worth it.

That's not even mentioning the fact that both Grundy and Gawn play 1 less game.

The only problem with the English / Marshall combo is the cost of $2.5M .....now I could understand that scenario in a normal season .....but that combo will cost you another premo ...and in a season of so many byes & best 18, I'm not sure you can run that thin of premo's

My belief on value picks is ....they're either going to be top 6 in their zone ....or they're going to be a stepping stone

I agree, you can't have a team full of stepping stones ....and last years winner declared he went against this value pick strategy and picked more keepers from the start

 

[danster168]

The only problem with the English / Marshall combo is the cost of $2.5M .....now I could understand that scenario in a normal season .....but that combo will cost you another premo ...and in a season of so many byes & best 18, I'm not sure you can run that thin of premo's

My belief on value picks is ....they're either going to be top 6 in their zone ....or they're going to be a stepping stone

I agree, you can't have a team full of stepping stones ....and last years winner declared he went against this value pick strategy and picked more keepers from the start

yeah I guess it depends how we value Gawn and Grundy. I think Gawn is a promo who will probably avg 100. I think Grundy is maybe in the 90 category. I see English and Marshall as 115+. Plus Gawndy both have the extra bye which reduced their avg ultimately.

I don't think I'll pick Grundy unless he goes 100 in the Opening round. Anything under that and I'll pass. Same with Gawn.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

yeah I guess it depends how we value Gawn and Grundy. I think Gawn is a promo who will probably avg 100. I think Grundy is maybe in the 90 category. I see English and Marshall as 115+. Plus Gawndy both have the extra bye which reduced their avg ultimately.

I don't think I'll pick Grundy unless he goes 100 in the Opening round. Anything under that and I'll pass. Same with Gawn.

Gawn at 33 .....who gives him any relief ?

MELB have shown, they don't want to run Gawn into the ground ....but the cupboards bare for any support

He could fall away over a long season

 

[danster168]

Gawn at 33 .....who gives him any relief ?

MELB have shown, they don't want to run Gawn into the ground ....but the cupboards bare for any support

He could fall away over a long season

I guess i''m not worried about Gawn's age like others are. He is so slim and he has that Dustin Fletcher body so I actually think he'll play for another 4 seasons. He's 32. And has shown no signs of slowing down. The only reason he wasn't AA ruckman this year was due to Grundy and Goodwin being dumb. And even then he still made a late run.

He's also incredibly fit and looking great like he always does in the off-season. He'll have some personal pride and most likely be AA ruck again this year imo.

Gawn may rest forward yes, but only to keep his time on ground up. I'm pretty bullish on Gawn. But I hate his bye.

 

[Mezzoculo]

Gawn at 33 .....who gives him any relief ?

MELB have shown, they don't want to run Gawn into the ground ....but the cupboards bare for any support

He could fall away over a long season

Tom Fullerton at $263k... probably worth popping him at R3 if you need Gawn insurance. Assuming he plays ruck at the dees.

 

[King_Steele]

Tom Fullerton at $263k... probably worth popping him at R3 if you need Gawn insurance. Assuming he plays ruck at the dees.

Fwd only?

 

[Mezzoculo]

Fwd only?

Yeah. Just noticed that. Hm.

 

[JDWCE]

I don’t really get this set and forget talk. Or course starting a player who’s top in their position as a set and forget is great for not trading and scoring. But the reality is you can’t do that. I struggle to see anyone in the mids who’s remotely close to Grundy in terms of value. The same argument could be said for Gawn and Xerri as well. I think when there’s value of this proportion in rucks, it would be remiss to go the set and forget strategy.

Going set and forget in the rucks means 2 premiums less in another spot.

Of course English and Marshall are likely to be the top two rucks, but there’s a very real chance that Gawn or Grundy (or maybe even someone else like a Briggs/Nank/whatever) slot in there

 

[pupstar]

LDU was a very good pick last year until he got injured. Then he was a very good pick again later in the year. Grundy will be a good pick as well until he gets injured. The point of picking value players though is the likelihood of achieving a higher score across your team than by picking everyone at or under value. So what if you have to trade 22 players? You've got 50 trades to use.

And English and Marshall aren't immune to injury either. The only relevance English and Marshall v Gawn and Grundy has is the extra bye and what else you can do with your team.

The other major difference is if English or Marshall get injured you can put in Gawn or Grundy or anyone you like but if Gawn or especially Grundy you cant get English or Marshall in as easy.

 

[happy_eagle]

I don’t really get this set and forget talk. Or course starting a player who’s top in their position as a set and forget is great for not trading and scoring. But the reality is you can’t do that. I struggle to see anyone in the mids who’s remotely close to Grundy in terms of value. The same argument could be said for Gawn and Xerri as well. I think when there’s value of this proportion in rucks, it would be remiss to go the set and forget strategy.

Going set and forget in the rucks means 2 premiums less in another spot.

Of course English and Marshall are likely to be the top two rucks, but there’s a very real chance that Gawn or Grundy (or maybe even someone else like a Briggs/Nank/whatever) slot in there

Its more of a supercoach type thing where you have limited trades, and so starting with as many keepers as possible is pivotal.

 

[danster168]

I don’t really get this set and forget talk. Or course starting a player who’s top in their position as a set and forget is great for not trading and scoring. But the reality is you can’t do that. I struggle to see anyone in the mids who’s remotely close to Grundy in terms of value. The same argument could be said for Gawn and Xerri as well. I think when there’s value of this proportion in rucks, it would be remiss to go the set and forget strategy.

Going set and forget in the rucks means 2 premiums less in another spot.

Of course English and Marshall are likely to be the top two rucks, but there’s a very real chance that Gawn or Grundy (or maybe even someone else like a Briggs/Nank/whatever) slot in there

youre not getting less premiums. Grundy isn't a premium.

 

[Phar Ace]

The other major difference is if English or Marshall get injured you can put in Gawn or Grundy or anyone you like but if Gawn or especially Grundy you cant get English or Marshall in as easy.

Timing is everything too though - a counter argument could be if Grundy or Gawn get injured in say Round 6, there may well be a much narrower gap too. That's the game. Grundy could get to $800 / Gawn to $1m, and English or Marshall could dip to $900k. It's not high liklihood, but we have seen it all before.

It's a scenario that made Gawn so affordable, after starting the second premo ruckman last season. Shit happens.

 

[Phar Ace]

Its more of a supercoach type thing where you have limited trades, and so starting with as many keepers as possible is pivotal.

This!

 

[Zevon]

Its more of a supercoach type thing where you have limited trades, and so starting with as many keepers as possible is pivotal.

This!

While I largely agree, even in Supercoach this has become a little less crucial as the number of available trades in that game (along with “boosts” etc) has increased over time.

Selby for example has done pretty well playing SC using the new-age Fantasy moneyball approach, aiming to have every player in the starting squad outperform their price, rather than the more traditional guns and rooks set and forget approach.

 

[4tune8]

Taken from the SC forum, the last game of the year Lobb and English shared the ruck 50/50, Lobb scored 106, English 98


*Edit.....I for one hope crazy Bevo does this, realizes his mistake by rnd 5 and swaps English back to main ruck, would make a nice flick of Grundy to him

 

[Mezzoculo]

Taken from the SC forum, the last game of the year Lobb and English shared the ruck 50/50, Lobb scored 106, English 98


*Edit.....I for one hope crazy Bevo does this, realizes his mistake by rnd 5 and swaps English back to main ruck, would make a nice flick of Grundy to him

Only after English has spent enough time forward to receive DPP....

 

[Cotchy9]

Geez the whole Gawn v English thing is tough. If Gawn gets 80%+ CBA’s I think he can return to a 105 average which is 10-12 points unders

But English is 115-120 and a walk up C

 

[4tune8]

Geez the whole Gawn v English thing is tough. If Gawn gets 80%+ CBA’s I think he can return to a 105 average which is 10-12 points unders

But English is 115-120 and a walk up C

Is he though if Bevo plays his magic tricks with Lobb?