List Mgmt. 2024 Father Son watch MKIII. Operation Ashcroft jnr. Featuring various academy boys.

[Jivlain]

 

[scoman]

Had a quick sweep of media sites and the draft board this morning to see who was available in the open draft this year. Focus being on KPP talent. The range is indicative of their position across various resources.

Here are the guys whose names have popped up as possible first rounders. I have omitted the academy and FS lads in that range as well – Walter GCS, Read GCS, McCabe HAW, Croft WB.



N Caddy 192 (Fwd/ Mid) – Top 10

D Curtin 195 (Def/ Fwd) – Top 10

M Edwards 207cm (Ruck) – Range 5-15

C O’Sullivan 198cm (Def/ Fwd) – Range 10 - 30

A Reid 203cm (Fwd) – Range 12 - 30

Patton 193cm (Def) – Range 12 - 30

L Morris 192cm (Fwd) – Range 15 - 40

O Murphy – (Def) 200cm – Range 20 - 40

W Brown 194cm (Mid/ Fwd) – Range 20 – 40



So if you add the FS and Academy guys that’s 13 players likely to be taken in the top 30 – 40. With the shortage of quality mids, there is every chance they might all be gone by our first pick unfortunately.

However, of that group I do like the idea of both Patton and/ or Brown. Third tall at either end of the ground is not a strength for us, so a fast-developing draftee has a legitimate crack at a senior spot within his first 2-3 years at the club. Brown may also continue as a tall mid, which is another area we are a bit short on.

But in the end you draft for talent, which I have no idea about really. I’m basing this all on other people’s opinions and the type of player they are reported to be.



I will do a bit of a deeper look at third and fourth round guys at a later date.

 

[noobermensch]

Though still impressive for a bottom-ager, this was a quieter game for Levi (relative to his standards) and his kicking was a little wayward.

 

[scoman]

Watched one of the noobermensch vids featuring Patton playing for SA in the carnival. Wasn't a particularly dominant performance but I thought it interesting that he took the kick outs for SA. Left footer as well.

 

[mpal6]

They have the points.

Is there a scenario where Suns could trade and grab pick 1 off WC so they get both Reid and Walter?

Read and Rogers sound good value but if they can get Harley Reid instead of those two, he might become the tipping point to push Suns to the next level.

Rogers just looks like another Zorko to me, I wish he was available so we could nab him somehow. Grabbing Rogers off Suns to replace Zorko will become a strange coincidence at multiple levels since we got Zorko in a similar way from them.

 

[briztoon]

Is there a scenario where Suns could trade and grab pick 1 off WC so they get both Reid and Walter?

Read and Rogers sound good value but if they can get Harley Reid instead of those two, he might become the tipping point to push Suns to the next level.

Rogers just looks like another Zorko to me, I wish he was available so we could nab him somehow. Grabbing Rogers off Suns to replace Zorko will become a strange coincidence at multiple levels since we got Zorko in a similar way from them.

I don’t see it personally. Pick 8 and a future first is not enough of a starting point to try and trade for pick 1.

Maybe if they included Will Powell and the two first round picks, that might get them a seat in the discussion.

 

[Dalions]

Is there a scenario where Suns could trade and grab pick 1 off WC so they get both Reid and Walter?

Read and Rogers sound good value but if they can get Harley Reid instead of those two, he might become the tipping point to push Suns to the next level.

Rogers just looks like another Zorko to me, I wish he was available so we could nab him somehow. Grabbing Rogers off Suns to replace Zorko will become a strange coincidence at multiple levels since we got Zorko in a similar way from them.

I thought Rogers was fantastic in the Allies game on the weekend. Particularly the first half, was just everywhere.
The Zorko (of old) comparison is spot on imo.

 

[p4p1]

I don’t see it personally. Pick 8 and a future first is not enough of a starting point to try and trade for pick 1.

Maybe if they included Will Powell and the two first round picks, that might get them a seat in the discussion.

How often does the #1 pick go on to be the best player of his draft year? I would imagine its a fairly low %.
From 98 onwards,
I would say Nick Reiwoldt is the best player of his draft year. Goddard may have been the best of his year. That is a fairly low strike right. Is the #1 pick overinflated value?

 

[M Malice]

How often does the #1 pick go on to be the best player of his draft year? I would imagine its a fairly low %.
From 98 onwards,
I would say Nick Reiwoldt is the best player of his draft year. Goddard may have been the best of his year. That is a fairly low strike right. Is the #1 pick overinflated value?

If I was the Eagles I would definitely trade pick 1 if they got 2 top 10 picks with one of them being in the 3-5 range.

 

[Viceregal]

The trouble is that the number one pick on potential talent tends to go to one of the worst teams for development and mentoring.

 

[p4p1]

If I was the Eagles I would definitely trade pick 1 if they got 2 top 10 picks with one of them being in the 3-5 range.

Definitely. I still think the draft is a bit of a crap shoot with players maturing quicker than others etc. Fyfe went at #20 as a 190cm skinny forward but he grew to 195cm (according to him). I'm just reading his draft profile right now and he was tipped to be a good 3rd tall option by almost everyone. One of his cons on his draft profile that I am reading is that he was never picked as a midfield possibility due to his build/strength. I am sure there is 100s of similar stories.
If I am in the Eagles position though, I am definitely shopping around my #1 pick. I have to think they are better off bringing in more top rated talent than just the #1 rated talent given where their list is.

 

[SizeMatters]

Would love a third tall defender. A proper one who can intercept and rebound. Ridley type.

Other than that just a bigger bodied inside mid for the future and that’s all.

 

[M Malice]

Definitely. I still think the draft is a bit of a crap shoot with players maturing quicker than others etc. Fyfe went at #20 as a 190cm skinny forward but he grew to 195cm (according to him). I'm just reading his draft profile right now and he was tipped to be a good 3rd tall option by almost everyone. One of his cons on his draft profile that I am reading is that he was never picked as a midfield possibility due to his build/strength. I am sure there is 100s of similar stories.
If I am in the Eagles position though, I am definitely shopping around my #1 pick. I have to think they are better off bringing in more top rated talent than just the #1 rated talent given where their list is.

I just had a look at a few drafts from 2020 and back(way too early to judge 2021-22 IMO) and who was pick 1 and who I think are the 2 best of the players selected from 2-10 in the same draft.

2020 pick 1- Jamarra Ugel-Hagen > Reily Thilthorpe(2), Braeden Campbell(5).
2019 Pick 1- Matt Rowell > Noah Anderson(2), Caleb Serong(8).
2018 pick 1- Sam Walsh > Connor Rozee(5), Nick Blakey(10).
2017 pick 1- Cam Rayner > Andrew Brayshaw(2), Aaron Naughton(9).
2016 pick 1- Andrew McGrath > Tim Taranto(2), Hugh McCluggage(3).
2015 pick 1- Jacob Weitering > Clayton Oliver(4), Harry McKay(10).
2014 pick 1- Patrick McCartin > Christian Petracca(2), Darcy Moore(9).
2013 pick 1- Tom Boyd > Josh Kelly(2), Marcus Bontempelli(4).
___________________________________________________
I do think that recruiters are getting better at spotting talent and assessing the intangibles than they were 10 years ago.

 

[p4p1]

I just had a look at a few drafts from 2020 and back(way too early to judge 2021-22 IMO) and who was pick 1 and who I think are the 2 best of the players selected from 2-10 in the same draft.

2020 pick 1- Jamarra Ugel-Hagen > Reily Thilthorpe(2), Braeden Campbell(5).
2019 Pick 1- Matt Rowell > Noah Anderson(2), Caleb Serong(8).
2018 pick 1- Sam Walsh > Connor Rozee(5), Nick Blakey(10).
2017 pick 1- Cam Rayner > Andrew Brayshaw(2), Aaron Naughton(9).
2016 pick 1- Andrew McGrath > Tim Taranto(2), Hugh McCluggage(3).
2015 pick 1- Jacob Weitering > Clayton Oliver(4), Harry McKay(10).
2014 pick 1- Patrick McCartin > Christian Petracca(2), Darcy Moore(9).
2013 pick 1- Tom Boyd > Josh Kelly(2), Marcus Bontempelli(4).
___________________________________________________
I do think that recruiters are getting better at spotting talent and assessing the intangibles than they were 10 years ago.

I agree that it has definitely improved but there will never be a way to ensure it either.
I look at some of the new F/S selections and while they are the clear standouts in their drafts (for the most part) I wonder, in 10 years when the leg up on the comp they had has been evened out with all players having access to the same advantages over time etc how it will look. GAJ was kind of the opposite though because form all reports he had inherited his fathers work eithic and general approach to footy.

 

[briztoon]

How often does the #1 pick go on to be the best player of his draft year? I would imagine its a fairly low %.
From 98 onwards,
I would say Nick Reiwoldt is the best player of his draft year. Goddard may have been the best of his year. That is a fairly low strike right. Is the #1 pick overinflated value?

Depends how often the team with the first pick actually picks the highest rated kid, according to the media and draft watchers.

Petracca was widely considered the best kid in his draft year, but went at pick 2.

Cadman wasn’t even considered a top 5 prospect, until GWS flagged their interest in him.

Rowell was considered the best 18 player in his draft year, but Anderson was considered to have a higher ceiling, and could be the best player from his year if he meets his potential.

Teams still draft for need at pick one, while other teams draft the best U18, can’t miss kid (Rowell, Walsh, etc), but that kid often doesn’t have the highest potential/ceiling.

 

[briztoon]

If I was the Eagles I would definitely trade pick 1 if they got 2 top 10 picks with one of them being in the 3-5 range.

I wouldn’t.

If they got pick 2 and Norths future first maybe.

 

[M Malice]

I wouldn’t.

If they got pick 2 and Norths future first maybe.

You are in the Harley Reid is one of the best kids ever camp?

 

[p4p1]

Depends how often the team with the first pick actually picks the highest rated kid, according to the media and draft watchers.

Petracca was widely considered the best kid in his draft year, but went at pick 2.

Cadman wasn’t even considered a top 5 prospect, until GWS flagged their interest in him.

Rowell was considered the best 18 player in his draft year, but Anderson was considered to have a higher ceiling, and could be the best player from his year if he meets his potential.

Teams still draft for need at pick one, while other teams draft the best U18, can’t miss kid (Rowell, Walsh, etc), but that kid often doesn’t have the highest potential/ceiling.

I get that and it does make sense. My overall point I guess was that I feel like having the #1 pick is often over inflated. I do find the draft quite interesting. I have heard the draft for talent, trade for need philosophy and that one does seem to make the most sense to me. Of course comparing 18 years old, of different positions, builds and maturity is always going to be very difficult.

One thing I did find really interesting when reading about Fyfe's draft was that Freo almost didn't pick him because they wanted a mid and it was only their head recruiters opinion which went against just about everyone else's that he would/could go on to be a really solid full time mid that was the reason they went with him.

 

[briztoon]

You are in the Harley Reid is one of the best kids ever camp?

No.

I’m in the, “this draft crop has really failed to come on from last year” camp.

Moir has gone backwards.

Duursma hasn’t developed at all.

Archer Reid hasn’t come on either.

The two best pure mids are Tasmanian, but aren’t WOW types. They’re solid top 15 on a list types. And Tassie will be joining the competition in 4 years, and throwing lots of money at kids.

The third best mid is tied to GC.

And the fourth best mid is 170cm, already physically developed for his age, and is being played primarily as a small forward, because that’s what he’ll be at AFL level.

The best KPF is tied to GC.

The best ruck/potential KPD’er is tied to GC.

The second best KPF is tied to the Bulldogs.

The third/fourth best KPF is tied to GWS.

The third best KPD is tied to Hawthorn.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Cadman wasn’t even considered a top 5 prospect, until GWS flagged their interest in him.

From what I read about Cadman, in his draft year he went from being a winger to a full forward on account of gaining both height and weight, somewhat unexpectedly. Thus his draft prospects shot up accordingly, and then I think he was basically the only one out of the top 5 who didn't express reluctance to be drafted interstate. Given their history I guess that basically made GWS's mind up for them. Whether they needed to trade up to number 1 to get him tho is another question I guess.

 

[briztoon]

From what I read about Cadman, in his draft year he went from being a winger to a full forward on account of gaining both height and weight, somewhat unexpectedly. Thus his draft prospects shot up accordingly, and then I think he was basically the only one out of the top 5 who didn't express reluctance to be drafted interstate. Given their history I guess that basically made GWS's mind up for them. Whether they needed to trade up to number 1 to get him tho is another question I guess.

He shot up in his bottom age year and the off season. During preseason his coach said they were going to try him as a key forward.

Just my personal opinion, but I thought he sat in that 8 to 12 range.

Yes, he was one of the few top prospects who didn’t say he wanted to stay home.

Who knows what North would have got if the JHF mega trade didn’t happen. But a key forward would have been right at the top of their list.

 

[Section 5]

No.

I’m in the, “this draft crop has really failed to come on from last year” camp.

Moir has gone backwards.

Duursma hasn’t developed at all.

Archer Reid hasn’t come on either.

The two best pure mids are Tasmanian, but aren’t WOW types. They’re solid top 15 on a list types. And Tassie will be joining the competition in 4 years, and throwing lots of money at kids.

The third best mid is tied to GC.

And the fourth best mid is 170cm, already physically developed for his age, and is being played primarily as a small forward, because that’s what he’ll be at AFL level.

The best KPF is tied to GC.

The best ruck/potential KPD’er is tied to GC.

The second best KPF is tied to the Bulldogs.

The third/fourth best KPF is tied to GWS.

The third best KPD is tied to Hawthorn.

So, a good year for Lions to have crap picks.

 

[25 years on]

In a rebuilding team I would prefer to swap one potential superstar for three good work horses

 

[Tom14]

In a rebuilding team I would prefer to swap one potential superstar for three good work horses

To be clear, I don't think the above is what you meant, just an excuse to post a clip of Wayne Carey being a moron.

 

[GC2015]

Thought you guys might be interested to learn that Joe Kennedy, son of 188-game Bear/Lion Maxy, had a best on field performance for the Broadbeach Colts team against Mt Gravatt on Saturday. Joe is of course father-son tied to your club as well as academy tied to ours and will be draft eligible next year. He was selected to represent our academy as a bottom ager in their Coates Talent League games earlier this year but wasn't able to gain selection for the Allies. Not sure if he's considered draft worthy at this stage but I suspect there will be a battle for his signature if he is. Both of our clubs could have a difficult time matching a bid for him with Levi Ashcroft likely to take up a lot of your points and Leo Lombard/Caleb Nancarrow likely to take a lot of ours. I think I read Joe stood around 183cm tall at the beginning of this year so he may not reach the literal heights of his old man Maxy (191cm).

 

[M Malice]

Have we got any academy players that are at all draftable this year? Usually there are at least 1 or 2 being talked about even if they weren't eventually drafted, I can not recall any chatter about this years academy crop.