I actually did the full analysis using Richmond alongside Geelong as a team I expected to have a lot of injuries (then I did the same for the two grand finalists, and Geelong 2022).
Richmond had a whopping 10 week run of 5-8 best 22 out between round 3-12.
Geelong did make another late injury charge and had 104 games missed compared to 100 for Richmond - however you had to look deeper than that to get to the juicy stuff.
Where Geelong suffered more were in-game injuries, totaling twice as many. Multiple in-game injuries, on top of a hefty list heading in, is a recipe for disaster.
When you combined pre-game plus in-game injury totals in a given week, Richmond reached 6 or more on 7 occassions; for Geelong it happened 11 times. And 6 or more was where there was a big correlation in losing percentage, a critical mass if you will (Geelong won 67% of games with 5 injuries or less but just 27% when they had 6 or more; for Richmond it was 50% and 27% respectively).
Of course either side could drop off for other reasons. My prediction of both doing better than expected is based on form at least upholding and the injuries undertaking some mean reversion.
