2024 Ladder Predictions

[Pistol Night]

“Way too much talent”. You finished 13th last year and the list has not improved. Bottom six very likely, bottom four very reasonable.

I admire the loyalty but when you win 3 flags and players retire you have to face facts

 

[Pistol Night]

I'm more inclined to believe they have the talent to finish higher than I am to believe Yze is "great" before having even coached a game.

Never lost a game

 

[VinnieB]

Worst forward line in the game.

HF: Martin Balta Bolton
FF: Cumberland Lynch Baker/or improving young player.

I suggest you re-read my post. I’m talking about Hawthorn, not Richmond.

 

[Arr0w]

Tigers are an interesting watch, might take half a season for Yze to get some consistency, but they could surprise early

At this stage bottom 6, could push closer to the 8, but can't see them making it

 

[Joao]

Tigers are an interesting watch, might take half a season for Yze to get some consistency, but they could surprise early

At this stage bottom 6, could push closer to the 8, but can't see them making it

Isn't their spine **** unless Lynch is fully fit?

They're honestly better being in the bottom 4. They're not contending and you could finish 15th with 9 wins this year. That would be a good result for them I would have thought.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

As a disclaimer, there are plenty of fans both more pessimistic and more optimistic than me but why are we in "No Mans Land." We are a very young side and unlike two other teams who everyone seems to think is on the up, we've actually made and won a final recently.

I take offence to being lumped with Richmond especially given somehow the only people who had a problem with that ranking were Richmond fans being lumped with us...

 

[Arr0w]

Isn't their spine **** unless Lynch is fully fit?

They're honestly better being in the bottom 4. They're not contending and you could finish 15th with 9 wins this year. That would be a good result for them I would have thought.

It will be about transitioning from old to new, while hoping their mid aged players stay on the park

 

[Fadge]

As a disclaimer, there are plenty of fans both more pessimistic and more optimistic than me but why are we in "No Mans Land." We are a very young side and unlike two other teams who everyone seems to think is on the up, we've actually made and won a final recently.

I take offence to being lumped with Richmond especially given some how the only people who had a problem with that ranking were Richmond fans being lumped with us...

Very true.

Freo, unlike Richmond, are one of 14 teams who can play finals this year.

Surprised if they're not genuine flag contenders within 2 to 4 years.

Jackson
Serong
Brayshaw
Amiss
Darcy
Young
Cox

A great core to build a team around.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Very true.

Freo, unlike Richmond, are one of 14 teams who can play finals this year.

Surprised if they're not genuine flag contenders within 2 to 4 years.

Jackson
Serong
Brayshaw
Amiss
Darcy
Young
Cox

A great core to build a team around.

 

[Arr0w]

As a disclaimer, there are plenty of fans both more pessimistic and more optimistic than me but why are we in "No Mans Land." We are a very young side and unlike two other teams who everyone seems to think is on the up, we've actually made and won a final recently.

I take offence to being lumped with Richmond especially given somehow the only people who had a problem with that ranking were Richmond fans being lumped with us...

I don't see your list anything like the Tigers

I thought you may have dipped last year due to losing some matured types

I think you will rise more consistently over the next 3 year, but think you might just miss the 8 this year, but you do have a strong young core

Biggest change needs to come from Longmuir, needs to release the shackles more

 

[rye]

As a disclaimer, there are plenty of fans both more pessimistic and more optimistic than me but why are we in "No Mans Land." We are a very young side and unlike two other teams who everyone seems to think is on the up, we've actually made and won a final recently.

I take offence to being lumped with Richmond especially given somehow the only people who had a problem with that ranking were Richmond fans being lumped with us...

since making finals youve lost mundy, lobb, schultz, acres and henry. traded in jackson and omeara

you could argue about the strength of those departures but the losses certainly outweigh the gains and pretty much every team can bank on natural improvement of a young core. gold coast has been hoping for that to carry them to their maiden finals berth for over a decade.

i also have major queries over the gameplan and coaching at fremantle.

richmond has the upside of structurally important players in gibcus and lynch returning from injury and the potential for a new coach to bring something that makes the list play at a higher level than their talent profile suggests

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

since making finals youve lost mundy, lobb, schultz, acres and henry. traded in jackson

you could argue about the strength of those departures but the losses certainly outweigh the gains and pretty much every team can bank on natural improvement of a young core. gold coast has been hoping for that to carry them to their maiden finals berth for over a decade.

i also have major queries over the gameplan and coaching at fremantle.

richmond has the upside of structurally important players in gibcus and lynch returning from injury and the potential for a new coach to bring something that makes the list play at a higher level than their talent profile suggests

No doubt, I dont pretend to think we are absolutely making finals or JL doesnt have a lot of question marks over him but we have as good a chance as Hawks (who we beat twice and won like 3 more games than) and GC (beat once, two more wins). Hell, Adelaide should have made finals if not for incompetence but I'll bet Tex doesnt have two career years back to back. We should be lumped in with that lot.

Richmond could make finals (though I doubt it) but their list is the definition of no mans land and as someone else said, would probably be more detrimental to their future

And I agree with basically everything Arr0w said

 

[Joao]

It will be about transitioning from old to new, while hoping their mid aged players stay on the park

Agree, and there's no point finishing 10th doing that. I doubt anyone older than 26 has much to do with their next flag push.

 

[Arr0w]

Agree, and there's no point finishing 10th doing that. I doubt anyone older than 26 has much to do with their next flag push.

The older guys will play a role as those younger types push through

 

[Joao]

The older guys will play a role as those younger types push through

Definitely in development for standards etc especially early, but not actually playing when it matters. No doubt a couple will hang on but most will be gone. See us, Hawks, West Coast, North as recent examples.

Tigers need a lot of new players and that's going to take time.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Anyone who can predict the ladder in order is a genius. I have only the eagles and roos no chance to make the 8. You can make a case for all the other teams having a chance to play finals.

 

[Joao]

Anyone who can predict the ladder in order is a genius. I have only the eagles and roos no chance to make the 8. You can make a case for all the other teams having a chance to play finals.

Someone who can predict the ladder is not a genious, they are Laplace's Demon.

There are 18! combinations, admittedly a decent swathe of those can be ruled out (like reverse order) but even if you assume you know the position of 4 teams (which is generous), that still leaves your chances as a 1 in ~87 Billion.

 

[bradfisher14]

Anyone who can predict the ladder in order is a genius. I have only the eagles and roos no chance to make the 8. You can make a case for all the other teams having a chance to play finals.

Agreed, but I would add Richmond as I can't see a credible case for them making the 8. They missed finals last season and the list got significantly worse in the offseason. I don't believe that the young talent they have coming through will improve quickly enough. Lynch is their most important player and hasn't started running on solid ground yet. Their key defenders look shaky with Grimes slowing down, Balta being moved forward, and Gibcus having not played a game since 2022. But the biggest point for me is that I think the change in gameplan is going to make them significantly worse. Richmond have historically been a team that relies on pressure/fast ball movement to win games and Yze is apparently going to have them playing a precise kicking gameplan. I just can't see it working at all.

 

[Grrr]

Agreed, but I would add Richmond as I can't see a credible case for them making the 8. They missed finals last season and the list got significantly worse in the offseason. I don't believe that the young talent they have coming through will improve quickly enough. Lynch is their most important player and hasn't started running on solid ground yet. Their key defenders look shaky with Grimes slowing down, Balta being moved forward, and Gibcus having not played a game since 2022. But the biggest point for me is that I think the change in gameplan is going to make them significantly worse. Richmond have historically been a team that relies on pressure/fast ball movement to win games and Yze is apparently going to have them playing a precise kicking gameplan. I just can't see it working at all.

How did we get worse over the off season. Cotchin was finished and Riewoldt played 13 games (of 21) where he kicked 0 - 1 goals a game. We added a maybe not very good but at least physical tall in Koschitzke. We were feeble in the air last year up forward.

Lynch is training right now. Has done plenty of running over the last months and has started to join in full training for short blocks. The foot is fully recovered, they just don't want him to do a calf/hammy by doing too much to soon. Would play most likely round 1 but the AFL in their wisdom has us playing 2 games in 5 days, so he will play rd 2, was never going to try and get him up for both.

Gibcus has been in full training since back from xmas. Yes he has been out for a year, but he is class and will add something where ever he plays. Grimes has been down the last two years. Most posters do not have him best 22 any more anyway. Balta may only play forward until Lynch is back.

Our game plan was so stuck in 2017-19 under Hardwick and Mini. Hardwick himself said he had lost the players, Yze has come in with a bang evidently, and I'm sure the young players in particular will love that, as Hardwick wouldn't play them full stop. Like all sides there is talent coming through, you don't need a dozen, just a few every year. Some of them can play they just were not given a chance. Dow plays his first games (3) in 18 months and played far better than Cotchin has for some time. Not to mention Martin who has trained the entire preseason as a mid, dropped 4kg's, broken PB's and is dominating every training session. Same goes for Hopper who has not missed a session. Prestia even came 6th in the 2km time trial so has done plenty of work. They are not dead and buried just yet.

Richmond's biggest issue will be injuries, and older players are more susceptible. A bit of luck and who knows how Richmond will go.

 

[#gosaintas]

How did we get worse over the off season. Cotchin was finished and Riewoldt played 13 games (of 21) where he kicked 0 - 1 goals a game. We added a maybe not very good but at least physical tall in Koschitzke. We were feeble in the air last year up forward.

Lynch is training right now. Has done plenty of running over the last months and has started to join in full training for short blocks. The foot is fully recovered, they just don't want him to do a calf/hammy by doing too much to soon. Would play most likely round 1 but the AFL in their wisdom has us playing 2 games in 5 days, so he will play rd 2, was never going to try and get him up for both.

Gibcus has been in full training since back from xmas. Yes he has been out for a year, but he is class and will add something where ever he plays. Grimes has been down the last two years. Most posters do not have him best 22 any more anyway. Balta may only play forward until Lynch is back.

Our game plan was so stuck in 2017-19 under Hardwick and Mini. Hardwick himself said he had lost the players, Yze has come in with a bang evidently, and I'm sure the young players in particular will love that, as Hardwick wouldn't play them full stop. Like all sides there is talent coming through, you don't need a dozen, just a few every year. Some of them can play they just were not given a chance. Dow plays his first games (3) in 18 months and played far better than Cotchin has for some time. Not to mention Martin who has trained the entire preseason as a mid, dropped 4kg's, broken PB's and is dominating every training session. Same goes for Hopper who has not missed a session. Prestia even came 6th in the 2km time trial so has done plenty of work. They are not dead and buried just yet.

Richmond's biggest issue will be injuries, and older players are more susceptible. A bit of luck and who knows how Richmond will go.

bottom 4 I reckon

 

[JustaBattler]

No way Richmond finish in the bottom4 way way too much talent and the new coach will breathe new life into players and game plan- wouldn't be surprised about anything Richmond were able to achieve this year.

 

[bradfisher14]

How did we get worse over the off season. Cotchin was finished and Riewoldt played 13 games (of 21) where he kicked 0 - 1 goals a game. We added a maybe not very good but at least physical tall in Koschitzke. We were feeble in the air last year up forward.

I think Geelong last season was a decent case study for how much of a void Cotchin will leave. Yes, he was finished, but he still provided a lot of leadership in the middle and someone will need to step into that void. Riewoldt the same for the forward line. I'm not sure that can be figured out quickly enough for you to make finals this year which is what this thread is about. Koschitzke I just don't rate at all.

Lynch is training right now. Has done plenty of running over the last months and has started to join in full training for short blocks. The foot is fully recovered, they just don't want him to do a calf/hammy by doing too much to soon. Would play most likely round 1 but the AFL in their wisdom has us playing 2 games in 5 days, so he will play rd 2, was never going to try and get him up for both.

Plenty of running over the last months, yes, but it was in a zero-gravity treadmill according to reports. Very different to running on grass and extremely different to playing an AFL game. No doubt he will play at some stage, but I wonder if it will take him a while to get back to his best.

Gibcus has been in full training since back from xmas. Yes he has been out for a year, but he is class and will add something where ever he plays. Grimes has been down the last two years. Most posters do not have him best 22 any more anyway. Balta may only play forward until Lynch is back.

Good to hear re: Gibcus, but he will need time just like Lynch. Grimes will surely play most games surely. Do you think Tylar Young can take the next step? I think it's a massive gamble to not play Balta down back.

Our game plan was so stuck in 2017-19 under Hardwick and Mini.

For sure, I just don't think you have enough good kicks in your current list is to suit what Yze is trying to implement. Especially in the midfield with the likes of Taranto and Hopper. Just my take as an outside observer, you may have a different opinion given you watch them a bit more closely.

Hardwick himself said he had lost the players, Yze has come in with a bang evidently, and I'm sure the young players in particular will love that, as Hardwick wouldn't play them full stop. Like all sides there is talent coming through, you don't need a dozen, just a few every year. Some of them can play they just were not given a chance. Dow plays his first games (3) in 18 months and played far better than Cotchin has for some time. Not to mention Martin who has trained the entire preseason as a mid, dropped 4kg's, broken PB's and is dominating every training session. Same goes for Hopper who has not missed a session. Prestia even came 6th in the 2km time trial so has done plenty of work. They are not dead and buried just yet.

Richmond's biggest issue will be injuries, and older players are more susceptible. A bit of luck and who knows how Richmond will go.

Oh no doubt there is a possibility that you have a lucky run with your older players - I just see it as being extremely unlikely given what we have seen over the last couple of years. As for the young players, I just don't see the quality required to make finals. Sure, Dow might turn out to be a solid AFL player, but you'll need a lot more than that to bridge the gap IMO. As much as I love Dusty, I can't see him dominating for a full season as a midfielder again for the rest of his career.

 

[Grrr]

I think Geelong last season was a decent case study for how much of a void Cotchin will leave. Yes, he was finished, but he still provided a lot of leadership in the middle and someone will need to step into that void. Riewoldt the same for the forward line. I'm not sure that can be figured out quickly enough for you to make finals this year which is what this thread is about. Koschitzke I just don't rate at all.



Plenty of running over the last months, yes, but it was in a zero-gravity treadmill according to reports. Very different to running on grass and extremely different to playing an AFL game. No doubt he will play at some stage, but I wonder if it will take him a while to get back to his best.



Good to hear re: Gibcus, but he will need time just like Lynch. Grimes will surely play most games surely. Do you think Tylar Young can take the next step? I think it's a massive gamble to not play Balta down back.



For sure, I just don't think you have enough good kicks in your current list is to suit what Yze is trying to implement. Especially in the midfield with the likes of Taranto and Hopper. Just my take as an outside observer, you may have a different opinion given you watch them a bit more closely.



Oh no doubt there is a possibility that you have a lucky run with your older players - I just see it as being extremely unlikely given what we have seen over the last couple of years. As for the young players, I just don't see the quality required to make finals. Sure, Dow might turn out to be a solid AFL player, but you'll need a lot more than that to bridge the gap IMO. As much as I love Dusty, I can't see him dominating for a full season as a midfielder again for the rest of his career.

I'll try and be brief as I know how boring this can be.

Hopper and Taranto more than filled the void of leadership, Martin more midfield, Bolton goes through there. Need an injection of youth if anything. Dow has some tricks and could surprise. Lynch more than replaces Jack

Zero- gravity before xmas. Has been doing grass running for the last 4 weeks, building up to 1hr+ running session. Started proper kicking marking this week. As I said, slow build due to other muscle stress, not foot. 4 more weeks of solid training before he round 2. Will play interclub games in 2 weeks according to head fitness coach.

Tyler Young came from never playing the game 4 years ago to one of the leagues best one-0n-one defenders last season. No reason at all why he will go backwards. Every team needs a defensive tall and he is very quick which helps. Grimes has missed a fair chunk of preseason so who knows. He was poor last year, it happens when players get older. Broad easily a better player than Grimes the last 2 years and very similar.

Agree re kicking skills, but new young players like Brown, Banks, Clarke and a few others are excellent kicks and will be there abouts. Hopper is not a bad kick, Taranto carried the entire midfield last year in every stat, will not have to do that so much this year. Dusty nearly lost a kidney and did lose a father, he was not right the last two years. He could surprise.

Richmond were pretty average last year, behind WC for injured best 22 missing, Hardwick left mid season and have a lot of kids who are unknown to pretty much us much less everyone else because they weren't played. New coach, new enthusiasm.

I see Richmond's problems a couple of season further down the track. The quality is still there, but in 2 years it won't be so the new players better show something.

 

[Beutbrute]

Just been going through the ladder predictions, and I think a lot of you are in for a shock with how much West Coast are going to improve this year. I'm fairly confident if things go well we could get at least 4 wins and finish above North. If things don't go so well we will only finish above Richmond.

 

[bradfisher14]

I'll try and be brief as I know how boring this can be.

Hopper and Taranto more than filled the void of leadership, Martin more midfield, Bolton goes through there. Need an injection of youth if anything. Dow has some tricks and could surprise. Lynch more than replaces Jack

Zero- gravity before xmas. Has been doing grass running for the last 4 weeks, building up to 1hr+ running session. Started proper kicking marking this week. As I said, slow build due to other muscle stress, not foot. 4 more weeks of solid training before he round 2. Will play interclub games in 2 weeks according to head fitness coach.

Tyler Young came from never playing the game 4 years ago to one of the leagues best one-0n-one defenders last season. No reason at all why he will go backwards. Every team needs a defensive tall and he is very quick which helps. Grimes has missed a fair chunk of preseason so who knows. He was poor last year, it happens when players get older. Broad easily a better player than Grimes the last 2 years and very similar.

Agree re kicking skills, but new young players like Brown, Banks, Clarke and a few others are excellent kicks and will be there abouts. Hopper is not a bad kick, Taranto carried the entire midfield last year in every stat, will not have to do that so much this year. Dusty nearly lost a kidney and did lose a father, he was not right the last two years. He could surprise.

Richmond were pretty average last year, behind WC for injured best 22 missing, Hardwick left mid season and have a lot of kids who are unknown to pretty much us much less everyone else because they weren't played. New coach, new enthusiasm.

I see Richmond's problems a couple of season further down the track. The quality is still there, but in 2 years it won't be so the new players better show something.

Thanks for the insights. It'll definitely be interesting to see how this transition period plays out for you guys.