2024 Ladder Predictions

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BloodRet said:
Underselling your own team there perhaps. Was really impressed with Hawthorn towards the back end of the season, think they showed a lot of promise. Anywhere between 8th and 13th I reckon.
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we’re still going to be the youngest side in the competition in 2024. Can’t see us finishing higher than 14th at best. Rebuilds like ours take years. I don’t have us playing finals until the earliest 2025. 2026 is more realistic imo. Hopefully I’m wrong but can’t see it.

From last season, we will lose Jacob Koschitzke and Tyler brockman to other clubs and Chad Wingard for most of the season through injury…whilst bringing in Mabior chol, Massimo d’ambrosio and hopefully Jack Gunston. That’s not enough to help us improve that much. Those players would struggle to get a game for just about every other side.

Here is why we are a long way off playing finals imo:

Forward line:

Mitch Lewis is an elite key forward but has yet to play more than 16 games in a season since being drafted in 2017. That’s not just “bad luck”. He’s injury prone due to the way he plays. We have no one else close to his quality as we saw last year when he missed the first 6 games. We went 1-5. History suggests he will miss 6-8 games. Mabior Chol will be a nice addition. He’s a slight upgrade on Jacob Koschitzke but won’t be a difference in us winning more games.

Other than Luke Breust, our small forward crop is the worst in the competition. Chad Wingard will miss 3/4 of the season as well. Tyler brockman, who was one player with potential has been traded to the eagles. You need at least 3 quality small forwards. One that kicks goals and two that can create pressure. We have 1 in luke Breust, who has two years left. Sam butler, who we drafted in the 20s two years ago has been disappointing. There’s a couple of youngsters in josh Bennetts and Jack O’Sullivan coming through but they are miles off.

Does this forward line look like a finals calibre forward line??

HF: Moore Lewis macdonald/d’ambrosio
FF: Breust Chol Grainger-Barras/Ryan


Backline:
We went all in for Ben McKay and missed out. There’s a reason we did. Our only full back is James Blanck. Picked up in the mid season draft whilst playing VFL. He’s shown he can play at AFL level, but he is not an elite afl full back. Like our key forward stocks, our key back depth is worse. There are quality pieces around with Sicily, Hardwick, weddle, Impey ect but the lack of a quality second key defender will continue to hurt us. James Sicily is not that player.

Our midfield is the biggest positive, which looks to have elite potential. I believe our midfield can be a top 5 unit in the competition in two years time. However, when the forward line and backline have so many holes, that’s a big issue! Just have to look at Melbourne (forward line issues) and port Adelaide (forward line and backline issues) last season. Having a great midfield doesn’t always equal success.
 
seasonedsainter said:
St. Kilda
Carlton
Adelaide
Brisbane
-
GWS
Suns
Melbourne
Hawthorn
--
Collingwood
Fremantle
Port Adelaide
Dogs
Norf
Sydney
Richmond
Geelong
Essendon
WCE
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You know you’re meant to put them in likely finishing order yeah?
 

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Top 8 in no particular order

Brisbane
Carlton
Collingwood
Giants
Melbourne
Port
St Kilda
Sydney
 
GWS
Carlton
Adelaide
Collingwood
Brisbane
St Kilda
Melbourne
Fremantle

Port Adelaide
Sydney
Hawthorn
Gold Coast
Western Bulldogs
Geelong
Essendon
Richmond
West Coast
North Melbourne
 
Godzke said:
early stages and in no particular order within their groupings

1-3: Brisbane, Pies and Melb
4-6: Syd, WBD, GWS
7-11: Carl, Port, Geel, Adel, StK
12-15: Ess, GC, Freo, Rich
16-18: Haw, North, WCE
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So basically no change except dogs …. Not directed at you but I see a lot of predicted ladders that are basically this years ladder with a tweak. I think historically there are more significant rises and falls …. GCS or Freo even you guys could make a run with Carlton, GWS and or Port falling
 
Brisbane - close this year and can't see them falling away. List profile is excellent.
Carlton - likely to get more from their core next season.
Collingwood - think they are going at their maximum, will be in the mix.
Sydney - bounce back with a good young list.
Port Adelaide - will be thereabouts but likely to find a few better in finals.
GWS - hardest team to rate, their best is very good but I do not think they have the depth and their midfield is old.
Western Bulldogs - meh, good'ish team but rely too heavily on too few.
Melbourne - window slowly closing but will be competitive.

Gold Coast - will do well at home, can they travel and win enough games?
Hawthorn - improver, beat some top teams last season but belted up a few times. Mitch Lewis is key.
Adelaide - will be solid but may not be quite ready to take the next step. Yet.
Fremantle - just a team.
St Kilda - don't think they are good enough to repeat their 2023 performance.
Geelong - era over and what an era it was. But they are cooked.
Richmond - time for a rebuild but three flags is three flags.
North Melbourne - will be more competitive.
Essendon - yuck, in trouble.
West Coast - starting from scratch.
 
The Cryptkeeper said:
Brisbane - close this year and can't see them falling away. List profile is excellent.
Carlton - likely to get more from their core next season.
Collingwood - think they are going at their maximum, will be in the mix.
Sydney - bounce back with a good young list.
Port Adelaide - will be thereabouts but likely to find a few better in finals.
GWS - hardest team to rate, their best is very good but I do not think they have the depth and their midfield is old.
Western Bulldogs - meh, good'ish team but rely too heavily on too few.
Melbourne - window slowly closing but will be competitive.

Gold Coast - will do well at home, can they travel and win enough games?
Hawthorn - improver, beat some top teams last season but belted up a few times. Mitch Lewis is key.
Adelaide - will be solid but may not be quite ready to take the next step. Yet.
Fremantle - just a team.
St Kilda - don't think they are good enough to repeat their 2023 performance.
Geelong - era over and what an era it was. But they are cooked.
Richmond - time for a rebuild but three flags is three flags.
North Melbourne - will be more competitive.
Essendon - yuck, in trouble.
West Coast - starting from scratch.
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Can you elaborate on "Yuck, In trouble" :confusedv1:?
 
1: Collingwood
2: Gws
3: Brisbane
4: Port
5: Melbourne
6: Carlton
7: Saints
8: Adelaide
9: Sydeny
10: Essendon
11: Geelong
12: Dogs
13: Freo
14: Richmond
15: Hawthorn
16: Gold Coast
17: North
18: West Coast
Awards
Brownlow: 1st: Butters and Daicos (31 Votes) 2nd: Tom Green (29 Votes) 3rd: Bontempelli (28 Votes)\
Coleman: Charlie Curnow ( 68 Goals)
Grand Final
Collingwood Vs Gws
Gws by 11 points
Tom Green: Norm Smith
Toby Greene: Most Goals (4)
Justification:
Ladder: Gws are on the climb and look to keep improving. Port is a little bias but I reckon we barely sneak in or finish 5th/6th. Adelaide barely sneak in, they have a good list and if they can improve their away form easily top 8.

Awards: Brownlow, Tom Green will play well all year but just miss out, Bontempelli will play really well but the dogs won't win enough games. Daicos will play well but will have others taking votes. Butters will play well and rozee will take less votes than this year. Charlie Curnow will play really well and will be hard to play against for defenders.

Grand Final: Collingwood will do good but Gws will overpower them slightly. Tom Green will most likely play well which is why I have him on norm smith. Toby Greene will get the most goals and will be hard to defend and will maybe do what bobby hill did this year.
 

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TheUnicorn said:
Can you elaborate on "Yuck, In trouble" :confusedv1:?
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Well the Essendon list is weak given years of mismanagement under Dodoro. I do not see how adding a B grade FB on big money, a middling, underachieving small forward and an old ruckman help that much.
 
The Cryptkeeper said:
Well the Essendon list is weak given years of mismanagement under Dodoro. I do not see how adding a B grade FB on big money, a middling, underachieving small forward and an old ruckman help that much.
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As much as Essendon* have been a poor club, I have to disagree with your assessment of their trade period.

Landing these guys for essentially zero draft capital is immense.
 
Juddernaut08 said:
As much as Essendon* have been a poor club, I have to disagree with your assessment of their trade period.

Landing these guys for essentially zero draft capital is immense.
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Maybe, maybe not mate.

I'm not seeing anybody who makes a material difference to them. McKay perhaps but I have my reservations. Goldstein is a hundred years old and Gresham has always been a tease.
 
Giants- best team in the comp imo

Brisbane- very good side but how much longer is their window going to be open for? Strong hga and good list should get this team to contend again.

Carlton- still room for improvement. Should see a step forward this year.

Suns- I'm predicting a 2016 Giants like rise from the sunnies. It's time for them to step up.

Pies- reigning premiers and should still be in the mix. Can easily be higher and even be flag favourites again. Probably would be a good chance to win from outside the four as well.

Crows- young sides are usually inconsistent. Their best footy matches it with anyone, they just won't bring it every week. And that's fine.

Swans- good trade period adding to a solid list. Could realistically be higher but they are placed behind some pretty good sides.

Bombers- trade period premiers on track for elimination final loss #2833736

----------------------------------------
Freo- ninthmantle ninthmantle

Dees- something off about the dees right now. Can see Goodwin being sacked if they fail to contend.

Dogs- overrated.

Tigers- underrated but not by much. Should be mid table.

Port- Hinkley sacked!

Cats- too old too slow #2833736, maybe this time it's finally correct.

North- finally a little bit of improvement.

Saints- dont trust this team at all. But I think I understand why so many users have Richmond in the bottom 4 when I have the saints in 16th

Hawks- will be the greatest 17th placed side of all time. Finals in 2025.

Eagles- Yeah. Nah.
 
Mr Meow said:
We had a positive win/loss ratio when we had less than 6 best 22 players missing. The only way there is "no chance" Geelong make the 8 is if they manage to top a historically bad injury run AND most 21-30 year olds form declines, rather than reverting towards 2022 levels.
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Let’s face it, GMHBA gives a walk up start to the finals. But also lulls you into a false sense of security - as your final loss rate during Scott’s tenure proves.
So HGA might get you into Top 8, but can’t see you doing much damage.
 
Last edited:
Grrr said:
How do you know that? He played 3.5 games for the year, the year before that he was up there as the top 1 or 2 key forward in the league. If he comes back fit then he will be still a very good player.

Richmond have lost nothing in regard to older players. Riewoldt was beaten nearly every week, had a couple of good games but had 13 games where he scored 1 goal or under. We won't miss that even though he has been great. Much the same with Cotchin, who whilst serviceable to the end can easily be replaced. The problem with stars going a year too long is they take the place of younger players or players that might swap positions and do better.

Half Richmond's problem last year was the coaching became very conservative and loyal to players that didn't necessarily deserve games but were good when we were good. That won't happen this year with a new coach and players will get games on merit. A lot might depend on Dusty, he looked really sharp last part of the season.

Richmond also lost the most games to injury behind WC last year, that shouldn't happen again with a bit of luck.
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You make the rookie mistake of saying Reiwvolt and Cotchin won’t be missed and forget their Footy IQ and Leadership can’t be replaced. That will be a huge and telling void in 2024.
 
No SPIN said:
Let’s face it, GMHBA gives a walk up start to the finals. But also lulls you into a false sense of security - as your final loss rate during Scott’s tenure proves.
So HGA might get you into Top 8, but can’t see you doing much damage.
Click to expand...
You'll have to take that to the "who will do damage" thread. This is a ladder prediction thread.
 

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2024 Ladder Predictions

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