2024 Ladder Predictions

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adammania9 said:
Yes I believe Melbourne will miss the 8. I don't hate Melbourne.
Click to expand...
Fair call. I suppose any of last years top 6 could miss the 8, including Collingwood.
See what happens.

If they have a great run with injury and sort their off field garbage and recreate the team buy in of 2021 then they’ll make finals.
 
So I was seriously thinking West Coast win B2B spoons, but after seeing no club going after the 1st rounder for next year I am thinking they know something we dont.
 
Seattle Mariners said:
Fair call. I suppose any of last years top 6 could miss the 8, including Collingwood.
See what happens.

If they have a great run with injury and sort their off field garbage and recreate the team buy in of 2021 then they’ll make finals.
Click to expand...
That’s the nature of a very even league. As a Collingwood fan who depressingly watched the 2010 team unravel over the following years, I can’t help but draw several comparisons to the Melbourne premiership team of 2021.

Both teams were absolutely red hot on route to winning a flag and near unbeatable for a long time - the Pies won 32/35 games at one stage and Melbourne won 17 on the trot over two seasons including their premiership win. Pies 2011 and Melbourne 2022 started on fire but at some stage, the invincibility aura wore off, and culminated in unsuccessful finals runs. Pies 2012 and Melbourne 23 were similar too - still carrying much of the core and class of their premiership sides, the depth had dropped off, and the teams were just not at the level of the competing grand final teams anymore. In 2013, the Magpies went 13-9 to secure sixth but bombed out in the first week of finals. My realistic expectation of Melbourne for 2024 is probably a 5th-8th finish but my bullish feeling is that due to an unbalanced 23 and skinny depth, Melbourne could drop out.

The forward line is still a serious concern and intercept defenders will likely continue to hurt the Dees. Is there too much expectation placed on Petty to glue the forward line together based on his 6 goal game against Richmond? I think so. A pass mark for he and JVR would be 65 goals between them. Realistically both are in their infancy as forwards at this level and it’s not going to be easy.

I really like the Billings acquisition and if Windsor kicks on immediately, the Demons will have elite outside run and better connection with their forwards. McAdam at best breaks even with Melksham’s output I think. Trading Grundy was obviously the right move, but a back up as unreliable as Fullarton is not good. You can’t afford to have Gawn miss games IMO.

Then there’s the behind the scenes factor. I don’t have a read on Melbourne’s plying chemistry, but history suggests when you’ve got a number of loose units at one club, it eventually catches up and hurts on field results. Smith looks suspended, Oliver very close to blowing football and Hunter by way of rumour has some real issues. There’s likely some other culprits too that are better at covering their tracks (as would be at any club).

Melbourne undoubtedly still have a really good playing group but I think their days of seriously contending are gone unless there is change.
 

FOOTYLAD'S 2024 OFFSEASON LADDER PREDICTOR​


1. LIONS 18W - 5L - 0D (Home and Away season dominance, Home still a fortress. Depth everywhere, Lions are here to make a statement that they're upset the way 2023 ended missing by only inches)
2. BLUES 16W - 7L- 0D (Building on 2023, Blues put it all together during the season. Voss gets the most from this group as they push for a legit shot at the Cup)
3. CROWS 15W - 8L - 0D (Far and away the biggest RISER. Statistically someone makes a jump from outside the 8 into top 4 almost every year. Like many we see it as Adelaide. They just have the list and the guys to do it.)
4. PIES 14W - 8L - 1D (No Premiership hangover but tougher draw and maybe a bit of foot off the pedal means a slight drop but nothing too crazy. Still the team to beat.)
5. GWS 14W - 9L - 0D (Still a force on the road, a bit of maturity in the young blokes and a belief that they can go again)
6. PORT 13W - 9L - 1D (Bit of a dip from 2023 but still tough at Home. Could be anything from 6th)
7. SUNS 13W - 10L - 0D (SUNS FINALLY MAKE IT, the fan favourite of the bunch. Neutrals team for Finals)
8. CATS 12W -11L - 0D (The villain pulls another one out of the hat. Sneak in on easy draw and easier finish to the season. Get % boost over easy wins at Home with newly rebuilt stadium, will fall down the depths to proper rebuild after 2024 with bulk retirements)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
9. SWANS 12W -11L - 0D (Swans drop a couple games they should win and due to tough schedule miss out by minuscule %. Really unlucky here)
10. DEES 12W -11L - 0D (My biggest FALLER. Please don't get mad at me Dees fans i promise it's not personal i just think a lot of offseason distractions and a hard schedule don't help. Miss out only on %)
11. SAINTS 12W -11L - 0D (Lack of consistency to build on previous seasons success sees Saints miss on %)
12. BOMBERS 12W -11L - 0D (Injuries and list turnover cause Dons to drop some games. Dons miss on % much to dismay of Bombers supporters.)
13. DOGGIES 10W -13L - 0D (The catalyst for a coach on the way out, reckon Bevo will get done halfway thorugh the season. Is Smith staying or going? How will mids gel? Can JUH figure out his kicking woes? Too many talls not enough spots? Lots of question marks here)
14. DOCKERS 10W -13L - 0D (Just not sure where the improvement comes from? Looked like ready to make the next step then faltered. Could very easily jump into 8 if Amiss comes on strong)
15. HAWKS 9W -14L - 0D (Tougher Hawks unit that gets some nice wins building off of last year's stronger finish)
16. TIGERS 7W -16L - 0D (Tigers heading into rebuild as they transition to next gen of elite players)
17. ROOS 4W -19L - 0D (Still too young to make any impact but the players are there. Just need competitive games every week to get a tick.
18. EAGLES 3W -20L - 0D (Another rough year but see them as more competitive with guys healthy. Still taking the losses but getting maturity into the kids which is a good thing)
 
Last edited:
FootyLad0 said:

FOOTYLAD'S 2024 OFFSEASON LADDER PREDICTOR​


1. LIONS 18W - 5L - 0D (Home and Away season dominance, Home still a fortress. Depth everywhere, Lions are here to make a statement that they're upset the way 2023 ended missing by only inches)
2. BLUES 16W - 7L- 0D (Building on 2023, Blues put it all together during the season. Voss gets the most from this group as they push for a legit shot at the Cup)
3. CROWS 15W - 8L - 0D (Far and away the biggest RISER. Statistically someone makes a jump from outside the 8 into top 4 almost every year. Like many we see it as Adelaide. They just have the list and the guys to do it.)
4. PIES 14W - 8L - 1D (No Premiership hangover but tougher draw and maybe a bit of foot off the pedal means a slight drop but nothing too crazy. Still the team to beat.)
5. GWS 14W - 9L - 0D (Still a force on the road, a bit of maturity in the young blokes and a belief that they can go again)
6. PORT 13W - 9L - 1D (Bit of a dip from 2023 but still tough at Home. Could be anything from 6th)
7. SUNS 13W - 10L - 0D (SUNS FINALLY MAKE IT, the fan favourite of the bunch. Neutrals team for Finals)
8. CATS 12W -11L - 0D (Sneak in on easy draw and easier finish to the season. Get % boost over easy wins at Home with newly rebuilt stadium, will fall down the depths to proper rebuild after 2024 with bulk retirements)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
9. SWANS 12W -11L - 0D (Swans drop a couple games they should win and due to tough schedule miss out by minuscule %. Really unlucky here)
10. DEES 12W -11L - 0D (My biggest FALLER. Please don't get mad at me Dees fans i promise it's not personal i just think a lot of offseason distractions and a hard schedule don't help. Miss out only on %)
11. SAINTS 12W -11L - 0D (Lack of consistency to build on previous seasons success sees Saints miss on %)
12. BOMBERS 12W -11L - 0D (Injuries and list turnover cause Dons to drop some games. Dons miss on %)
13. DOGGIES 10W -13L - 0D (The catalyst for a coach on the way out, reckon Bevo will get done halfway thorugh the season. Is Smith staying or going? How will mids gel? Can JUH figure out his kicking woes? Too many talls not enough spots? Lots of question marks here)
14. DOCKERS 10W -13L - 0D (Just not sure where the improvement comes from? Looked like ready to make the next step then faltered. Could very easily jump into 8 if Amiss comes on strong)
15. HAWKS 9W -14L - 0D (Tougher Hawks unit that gets some nice wins building off of last year's stronger finish)
16. TIGERS 7W -16L - 0D (Tigers heading into rebuild as they transition to next gen of elite players)
17. ROOS 4W -19L - 0D (Still too young to make any impact but the players are there. Just need competitive games every week to get a tick.
18. EAGLES 3W -20L - 0D (Another rough year but see them as more competitive with guys healthy. Still taking the losses but getting maturity into the kids which is a good thing)
Click to expand...

Another one too conservative
 
r_boy said:
Another one too conservative
Click to expand...
This is the ladder from last year

1. Pies
2. Lions
3. Power
4. Dees
5. Blues
6. Saints
7. Giants
8. Swans
9. Dogs
10. Crows
11. Bombers
12. Cats
13. Tigers
14. Dockers
15. Suns
16. Hawks
17. Roos
18. Eagles

Here's my predicted 2024 Ladder with position changes from 2023
1. Lions (+1)
2. Blues (+3)
3. Crows (+7)
4. Pies (-3)
5. Giants (+2)
6. Power (-3)
7. Suns (+8)
8. Cats (+4)
9. Swans (-1)
10. Demons (-6)
11. Saints (-5)
12. Bombers (-1)
13. Doggies (-4)
14. Dockers (=)
15. Hawks (+1)
16. Tigers (-3)
17. Roos (=)
18. Eagles (=)

There's 15 of 18 positional changes, multiple changes in either direction which results in a team position jumping 3/4 places minimum, that's a huge difference.

The highest change being 7 places up and the lowest being 6 places down.
There's 3 new teams in the top 8 with 1 jumping into the top 4, 1 having never played Finals and the other predicted to go in the opposite direction of most media pundits.

The only two teams who other than Freo stay in same spot are North and West Coast who gain more wins but are clearly a level below the rest of the comp.

Conservative? LOL
 
Last edited:

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FootyLad0 said:
This is the ladder from last year

1. Pies
2. Lions
3. Power
4. Dees
5. Blues
6. Saints
7. Giants
8. Swans
9. Dogs
10. Crows
11. Bombers
12. Cats
13. Tigers
14. Dockers
15. Suns
16. Hawks
17. Roos
18. Eagles

Here's my predicted 2024 Ladder with position changes from 2023
1. Lions (+1)
2. Blues (+3)
3. Crows (+7)
4. Pies (-3)
5. Giants (+3)
6. Power (-3)
7. Suns (+8)
8. Cats (+4)
9. Swans (-1)
10. Demons (-6)
11. Saints (-5)
12. Bombers (-1)
13. Doggies (-4)
14. Dockers (=)
15. Hawks (+1)
16. Tigers (-3)
17. Roos (=)
18. Eagles (=)

There's 15 of 18 positional changes, multiple changes in either direction which results in a team position jumping 3/4 places minimum, that's a huge difference.

The highest change being 7 places up and the lowest being 6 places down.
There's 3 new teams in the top 8 with 1 jumping into the top 4, 1 having never played Finals and the other predicted to go in the opposite direction of most media pundits.

The only two teams who other than Freo stay in same spot are North and West Coast who gain more wins but are clearly a level below the rest of the comp.

Conservative? LOL
Click to expand...
I don't agree with some of the movers, but the movemnt itself seems about right.
My ladder had crows and geelong rising and dees falling, like yours, but I have doubts over the suns still
 
adammania9 said:
That’s the nature of a very even league. As a Collingwood fan who depressingly watched the 2010 team unravel over the following years, I can’t help but draw several comparisons to the Melbourne premiership team of 2021.

Both teams were absolutely red hot on route to winning a flag and near unbeatable for a long time - the Pies won 32/35 games at one stage and Melbourne won 17 on the trot over two seasons including their premiership win. Pies 2011 and Melbourne 2022 started on fire but at some stage, the invincibility aura wore off, and culminated in unsuccessful finals runs. Pies 2012 and Melbourne 23 were similar too - still carrying much of the core and class of their premiership sides, the depth had dropped off, and the teams were just not at the level of the competing grand final teams anymore. In 2013, the Magpies went 13-9 to secure sixth but bombed out in the first week of finals. My realistic expectation of Melbourne for 2024 is probably a 5th-8th finish but my bullish feeling is that due to an unbalanced 23 and skinny depth, Melbourne could drop out.

The forward line is still a serious concern and intercept defenders will likely continue to hurt the Dees. Is there too much expectation placed on Petty to glue the forward line together based on his 6 goal game against Richmond? I think so. A pass mark for he and JVR would be 65 goals between them. Realistically both are in their infancy as forwards at this level and it’s not going to be easy.

I really like the Billings acquisition and if Windsor kicks on immediately, the Demons will have elite outside run and better connection with their forwards. McAdam at best breaks even with Melksham’s output I think. Trading Grundy was obviously the right move, but a back up as unreliable as Fullarton is not good. You can’t afford to have Gawn miss games IMO.

Then there’s the behind the scenes factor. I don’t have a read on Melbourne’s plying chemistry, but history suggests when you’ve got a number of loose units at one club, it eventually catches up and hurts on field results. Smith looks suspended, Oliver very close to blowing football and Hunter by way of rumour has some real issues. There’s likely some other culprits too that are better at covering their tracks (as would be at any club).

Melbourne undoubtedly still have a really good playing group but I think their days of seriously contending are gone unless there is change.
Click to expand...
Excellent and well reasoned response. I can’t argue with any of that.

I think Melbourne are around the 5th-8th mark and should be aiming to win a final, after two disastrous finals campaigns.

I don’t see as us a flag contender but expect to have a fairly decent home and away season. A pity we won a flag during COVID as opposed to 2022 or 2023.
 
1. Brisbane.
2. GWS.
3. Collingwood.
4. Carlton.
5. Adelaide.
6. Melbourne.
7. Geelong.
8. Bulldogs.


9. Sydney.
10. Gold Coast.
11. Saints.
12. Port Adelaide.
13. Essendon.
14. Hawthorn.
15. Richmond.
16. North.
17. Fremantle.
18. West Coast.

Sent from my CPH2197 using Tapatalk
 
Smoocher said:
1. Brisbane.
2. GWS.
3. Collingwood.
4. Carlton.
5. Adelaide.
6. Melbourne.
7. Geelong.
8. Bulldogs.


9. Sydney.
10. Gold Coast.
11. Saints.
12. Port Adelaide.
13. Essendon.
14. Hawthorn.
15. Richmond.
16. North.
17. Fremantle.
18. West Coast.

Sent from my CPH2197 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

hmmn… the most Vic centric 8 so far.
 
Seattle Mariners said:
Excellent and well reasoned response. I can’t argue with any of that.

I think Melbourne are around the 5th-8th mark and should be aiming to win a final, after two disastrous finals campaigns.

I don’t see as us a flag contender but expect to have a fairly decent home and away season. A pity we won a flag during COVID as opposed to 2022 or 2023.
Click to expand...
Yep, kudos to adammania9.
Great response. Articulate, balanced, insightful.
Rare.
 

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