2024 Lead Up Races

[eth-dog]

This is mostly for the likes of Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico, Volta a Catalunya, Itzulia Basque Country, Tour de Romandie, Tour de Hongrie, Dauphine, Tour de Suisse, Tour of Slovenia and Tour de Pologne, the lead up races for each GT. Luckily for us the only crossovers seem to be between P-N and T-A, as well as the Dauphine with the Suisse and Slovenia (which I honestly can't work out why it doesn't have WT status yet).

Paris-Nice is starting Sunday, day after Strade Bianche and Tirreno-Adriatico on Monday. My main potential highlights of each are:

P-N:

1. Remco vs Primoz in GC. The only time trial is a TTT which Quickstep have prepared well for with Lampaert and Cattaneo as part of their 5 announced, whilst Bora have Sobrero and Jungels to support Primoz too. I think with no ITT Primoz goes in the slight favourite as he's the stronger climber of the two.
2. The race for 3rd. Not many of the "bigger" GC contenders are there outside those two. Almeida is the best of the rest announced but could someone like Rodriguez or Gall upset him and sneak into 3rd? Is his biggest challenger for the podium teammate Jay Vine? I think the yellow jersey will be fought between the two I mentioned earlier but who comes in behind them will be a good watch.
3. The sprinters. Pederson, Groenewegen, Demare, Bennett, Kooij, Jakobsen, Groves, De Lie, Ackermann. No Philipsen or Merlier (who has seemingly started the year in the best form of the sprinters) so it'll be interesting to see how these guys go. Kooij has had the best start to the year so far, and they really only have the one sprint day on day 2 (day one might be a reduced bunch for someone like Pederson or Groves to go head to head).

T-A:

1. The gap between Vingegaard and the rest. Jonas is the head and shoulders favourite of this, with no Remco, Primoz or Tadej there. However there are a few strong riders who will all be trying to upset him in both Yates twins, Mas, Geoghegan Hart, Carapaz, O'Connor, Hindley, Leknessund and Ayuso which will make for a very interesting GC battle.
2. Healy vs Girmay vs Alaphillipe. No MvdP, no WVA and the first two road stages are almost purposefully built for the likes of these guys. Even Ganna could be a contender for these stages as a dark horse.
3. Again, the sprinters. Philipsen, Cavendish, Milan, Ewan, Bauhaus, Merlier, Mayrhofer, Dainese (an interesting battle internally as a side note), Kristoff and Girmay as well in this category. Bauhaus and Merlier have started the year well, but Philipsen was the best sprinter in the world last year and has only done opening weekend, where he wasn't in contention for either race.

 

[Orange Agent]

The TA course is a bit underwhelming, I don't quite understand Simon Yates starting there. Pretty likely Groenewegen won't make it to the finish for most stages at PN. My main interest is what the team allows Plapp to do and the Vlasov/Rog dynamic.

 

[eth-dog]

The TA course is a bit underwhelming, I don't quite understand Simon Yates starting there. Pretty likely Groenewegen won't make it to the finish for most stages at PN. My main interest is what the team allows Plapp to do and the Vlasov/Rog dynamic.

I think it's because he's doing Strade Bianche mostly (which is one of the few Classics he has a chance in) an PN starts the day after

 

[yaco55]

I think it's because he's doing Strade Bianche mostly (which is one of the few Classics he has a chance in) an PN starts the day after

Yates is now out of Strade Bianche. he was doing this race as preparation for the gravel stage in the TDF. At PN, Bling can do well in stage 5 and 6.

 

[eth-dog]

A very boring sprint stage so far.

Can Groves get the win?

 

[largebus]

Remco gapping everyone but Rog even on that short climb, ominous signs for everyone else

 

[eth-dog]

Remco gapping everyone but Rog even on that short climb, ominous signs for everyone else

Yeah, but we kinda knew that would happen.

Bling, Coquard, Pithie.

Wait, Bennett's there. He'll be favourite.

 

[eth-dog]

Nice win by UAE. Advantage Remco in terms of overall. Plapp could get a top 10 finish which would be great

 

[Orange Agent]

Plappy!! Great attack, being in the GC bunch on that finish wouldn't have suited him. And UAE will lose another race riding for McNulty. Jay Vine must be getting paid well.

 

[eth-dog]

I don't expect him to win but Plapp showing great signs in a one week race.

Still think it'll be Remco this week.

 

[eth-dog]

Nice sprint by Kooij. He has raw speed.

Last sprint stage of the race? Only reason I ask is that tomorrow has a similar profile to today.

 

[yaco55]

Plapp, Harper and Bling came down from altitude, so my expectations were that Plapp would do a top 10 - Bling is a worry with two withdrawals from stage races - Ewan is a bigger worry as he DNFed stage six of Tirreno, with stage seven being a sprint stage. Groenewegen is less of a worry as he's been sprinting OK but has been out of position.

 

[eth-dog]

Catalunya starts tonight and Coppi E Bartali tomorrow. Should be a good gauge on everything so far

 

[yaco55]

Jayco's climbing stocks have been decimated with injury and illness - Was informed that S.Yates was underdone which was reflected in the stage one result. Coppi Bartali was a target race, however, Zana had to pull out at the last minute with Berhe, while Shmid for the third time has been named to start his season and it had not happened.

 

[Orange Agent]

As if Pogacar's 350m sprint on stage 1 wasn't ominous enough he just completely destroys the field last night. 1min 30 in 7 km after already being off the front and making it look like he is racing against juniors. Vlasov actually comes here in good form, Landa looked good, they are miles off him. UAE's climbing support is now up there with peak Skybot era.

 

[eth-dog]

As if Pogacar's 350m sprint on stage 1 wasn't ominous enough he just completely destroys the field last night. 1min 30 in 7 km after already being off the front and making it look like he is racing against juniors. Vlasov actually comes here in good form, Landa looked good, they are miles off him. UAE's climbing support is now up there with peak Skybot era.

I think it's due to Pogi trying to get closer to his peak earlier as well.

But yeah, he's ominous.

 

[Orange Agent]

I think it's due to Pogi trying to get closer to his peak earlier as well.

But yeah, he's ominous.

It's hard to know if he is playing mind games with his media interviews this week. MSR, easiest race he's ever done yet breaks all time records and then today he says he didn't go into the red yet breaks the record for Vallter climb, mostly solo and in the rain.

 

[Vader]

It's hard to know if he is playing mind games with his media interviews this week. MSR, easiest race he's ever done yet breaks all time records and then today he says he didn't go into the red yet breaks the record for Vallter climb, mostly solo and in the rain.

Most riders can cope with riding at high speeds on a flat course, which MSR is for the most part. The fact that it was raced at a record speed overall is almost incidental.

When he says that it wasn't hard enough, he's talking about the pace that was set on the Cipressa and Poggio, which was slower than expected. The slower speed meant that they didn't eliminate as many riders as expected on these climbs, because it simply wasn't "hard enough" to force them to drop off.

For Tadej to win the MSR, he needed to escape on the Poggio. However, the slow speed of the climb - and that of the Cipressa before it - meant that he wasn't able to get himself free.

 

[Orange Agent]

Most riders can cope with riding at high speeds on a flat course, which MSR is for the most part. The fact that it was raced at a record speed overall is almost incidental.

When he says that it wasn't hard enough, he's talking about the pace that was set on the Cipressa and Poggio, which was slower than expected. The slower speed meant that they didn't eliminate as many riders as expected on these climbs, because it simply wasn't "hard enough" to force them to drop off.

For Tadej to win the MSR, he needed to escape on the Poggio. However, the slow speed of the climb - and that of the Cipressa before it - meant that he wasn't able to get himself free.

Saturdays Poggio was the fastest ever time, they averaged 39 kmh up it and the Cipressa was the second fastest.

 

[Vader]

Saturdays Poggio was the fastest ever time, they averaged 39 kmh up it and the Cipressa was the second fastest.

Interesting... that's not what the UAE team were saying. Guess you can't believe everything you read/hear!

 

[eth-dog]

Interesting... that's not what the UAE team were saying. Guess you can't believe everything you read/hear!

The problem with Tadej for MSR is that the Poggio isn't steep enough nor long enough for him.

 

[largebus]

Horrific crash on a descent at the Basque Country. Apparently the road was too bumpy for cycling and they crashed into a concrete lined ditch.

Vingegaard broken collarbone and ribs
Evenepoel broken collarbone
Vine spinal fractures
Sean Quinn sternum fracture
Roglic abandoned but seems to have avoided serious injury

Watched some footage and immediately wished I didn't.

 

[Orange Agent]

Ribs will be the biggest issue for Vingegaard. He won't be able to breathe properly for a month, no high intensity work. Even if he tries to race the Tour he will be underdone. The collarbone injuries will get surgery and they can be training again in a week, so Remco should be fine. Really big bunch to be taking the corner at that speed, those on the outside just had a bad line and couldn't correct it.

 

[yaco55]

watched it live and it was a shocking crash. The stage again showed the tactical ineptitude of Jayco. They are here chasing stages and should have had riders in the break.

 

[Vader]

The injuries to so many key riders is going to play merry havoc with the TdF field.

• Vingegaard crashed badly at the Tour of the Basque Country, breaking his collarbone and ribs, and bruising his lung. He was only released from hospital yesterday, and will have severely compromised preparations (assuming he is able to race the TdF at all).
• Evenepoul suffered a broken collarbone, which will compromise his preparation, but he's much better off than Vingegaard.
• The Pog remains fully fit, and will be a red hot favourite for Liege-Bastogne-Liege on Sunday night. He is currently planning to ride both the Giro & Tour. The last rider to win both in the same year was Marco Pantani, in 1988. Pog is a great rider, but will he have enough left in the tank after riding the Giro? Pog will also likely be without the services of Jay Vine, who was the most seriously injured of the riders involved in the Basque crash.
• Roglic escaped the Basque crash without any broken bones, but is still sitting out the Ardennes Classics while his body recovers. He should be, arguably, the least compromised of the main contenders... but I also have him as the 4th best of the 4 key riders.
• Ineos riders (various). They're all fit, as far as I know, but they're all either aging (e.g. Thomas) or nowhere near the standard of the big 4. However, with Jonas, Evenepoul and Pogacar all compromised, they could come back into contention.

It's still 2-3 months away, but who do you think should be favourite for the TdF at this stage?