List Mgmt. 2024 List Management 📃

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Am I the only one that doesn't want pick 7 or to trade in our future 1st?

We still need to take 3 players in this draft, still need to bank in a lot of points for 2024 (Ben potentially top 5 and Lucas potentially top 20-30), and it would be nice to not go into 2025 with a big shortage of picks so that we're forced to trade out of the 2026 draft and be stuck in the loop of a missing first rounder until we trade out a player with value to make up for it.

Whether it be Watson or someone else, it's a very big price to pay for a player who may not be best 22 straight away, and will likely never make up the value of being worth 2+ first rounders.
I simply don't know enough about the players to make that judgment.
However, there are a couple of factors:
1. It's not really valuing them as 2 first rounders when our F1 will likely be eaten by points matching, &
2. We don't necessarily need to take 3 players in the ND. Could keep a spot open for Rookie or SSP.
 
Am I the only one that doesn't want pick 7 or to trade in our future 1st?

We still need to take 3 players in this draft, still need to bank in a lot of points for 2024 (Ben potentially top 5 and Lucas potentially top 20-30), and it would be nice to not go into 2025 with a big shortage of picks so that we're forced to trade out of the 2026 draft and be stuck in the loop of a missing first rounder until we trade out a player with value to make up for it.

Whether it be Watson or someone else, it's a very big price to pay for a player who may not be best 22 straight away, and will likely never make up the value of being worth 2+ first rounders.
Why does our first pick have to be in the 22 straight away? I like the idea of a bit of development time for some. Get them to learn about and deliver on standards and build up some endurance.
 

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I simply don't know enough about the players to make that judgment.
However, there are a couple of factors:
1. It's not really valuing them as 2 first rounders when our F1 will likely be eaten by points matching, &
2. We don't necessarily need to take 3 players in the ND. Could keep a spot open for Rookie or SSP.
Where else are we going to get all the points necessary for matching Ben a likely top 5 pick and Lucas then in the 2nd round? Considering I think it's unwise to trade in our 2025 FRP into 2024.
 
Where else are we going to get all the points necessary for matching Ben a likely top 5 pick and Lucas then in the 2nd round? Considering I think it's unwise to trade in our 2025 FRP into 2024.
We could get futures for Fisher and Dow. Maybe we trade out another player next year, for trade a F2 or F3 into next years draft for points.
 
Where else are we going to get all the points necessary for matching Ben a likely top 5 pick and Lucas then in the 2nd round? Considering I think it's unwise to trade in our 2025 FRP into 2024.
Use Brisbane from last year as a guide. Ashcroft at 2, Fletcher at 12. Would love it if the Camporeale brothers were to be considered as high as those two, but at this stage, no indication that that is the case.

Then look at how Brisbane handled it:
To some extent, but it's not that difficult when we're talking two players. Using the Brisbane example from last year again, they went into draft night with 34, 35, 36, 38 and 55 - four late 2nd round picks, and a late 3rd. When the bid for Ashcroft came in at 2, they did a trade with Hawthorn to turn pick 36 and a future 3rd into more points. They were then still comfortably able to match a bid for Fletcher came in earlier than expected at 12.

We don't need to do a lot in preparation for next year, but certainly adding a pick or two around that 35-40 range would be handy. But it's not a necessity - we could wait till next year's trade period when we have a better idea of where the twins will go, and trade for picks based on that, or even leave it till draft night, as long as we have a couple of teams lined up for trades on the night.

There's a trick that Brisbane used to great effect on draft night. While there's a rule that you have to have spots vacant on your list for each pick you have going into the draft (i.e. Brisbane had 5 spots vacant on their list for the 5 picks above), that doesn't matter when it comes to trading on the night - so they were able to turn one pick into four on the night. afaik that loophole still exists.

The Suns case this year is a little harder, as they have potentially 3 players in the top 10, and another maybe in the 2nd round.
It's not that difficult. We need to be aware of what we have coming next year, but it shouldn't prevent us trading this year.
 
Am I the only one that doesn't want pick 7 or to trade in our future 1st?

We still need to take 3 players in this draft, still need to bank in a lot of points for 2024 (Ben potentially top 5 and Lucas potentially top 20-30), and it would be nice to not go into 2025 with a big shortage of picks so that we're forced to trade out of the 2026 draft and be stuck in the loop of a missing first rounder until we trade out a player with value to make up for it.

Whether it be Watson or someone else, it's a very big price to pay for a player who may not be best 22 straight away, and will likely never make up the value of being worth 2+ first rounders.
I am of the opposite opinion but thanks for sharing your thoughts. I’m just not sure I see two decent hits with this year’s and next year’s first rounders sitting close to pick 20.

I think there’s a big drop off in talent after the top 12-13 this year and we’re sitting well outside that so I’d rather trade up and be in the running to get someone like Watson, Caddy, Wilson or Leake and then the Camporeales next year.

Getting someone like Hardeman, Windsor, Tholstrup or Roberts if we keep our pick where it is, is just ok. I don’t see it as a guaranteed hit and I think the talent in the next group up is way higher.
 
Am I the only one that doesn't want pick 7 or to trade in our future 1st?

We still need to take 3 players in this draft, still need to bank in a lot of points for 2024 (Ben potentially top 5 and Lucas potentially top 20-30), and it would be nice to not go into 2025 with a big shortage of picks so that we're forced to trade out of the 2026 draft and be stuck in the loop of a missing first rounder until we trade out a player with value to make up for it.

Whether it be Watson or someone else, it's a very big price to pay for a player who may not be best 22 straight away, and will likely never make up the value of being worth 2+ first rounders.

I agree with you. I think most people just get excited by the names in the top 10 and don't really know who the guys beyond that are. So, the enthusiasm to trade up to one of the known names is always going to be higher than having multiple cracks at "nobodies".

You generally have to overpay massively to move up the first round and unless you are in a unique situation it's rarely worth it. In our case we would probably have to offload every tradable asset we have for the next 2 years to even have a shot at moving into the top 10 and even then, we may not end up with the player we want.

If we could turn just this years and next year's 1st into Watson I would have a different view but that wouldn't be anywhere near enough to get high enough up the order for him.

I think the best bet for us is to try get 2-3 picks before 35 this year (even if that means splitting our 1st), trade F2 for Hollands and keep our F1 to turn into whatever we need to match Camporeale bids.
 
In my opinion with the following we can address all our list needs, have enough points for the Campo twins, AND retain our entire set of draft picks for 2025.


Zac Fisher + Future 3rd (~55) —> Future 2nd (~23) - North Melb

Future 2nd (~35) —> Elijah Hollands - Gold Coast

Paddy Dow —> Pick 54 + Future 3rd (~50) - St Kilda


2023 DRAFT HAND: 16, 54, 68

2024 DRAFT HAND: F1, F2 (NM), F3 (StK), F4 - enough points to match bids for Ben at pick 5 and Lucas at pick 20


Pick 16 - Mid-Forward (Fogarty/Cuningham upgrade) - Darcy Wilson, Koltyn Tholstrup, Harry DeMattia

Pick 54 - Best available/biggest slider

Pick 68 - Promote Boyd/Cottrell to the senior list


Use our last list spot on an SSP selection.
 
I agree with you. I think most people just get excited by the names in the top 10 and don't really know who the guys beyond that are. So, the enthusiasm to trade up to one of the known names is always going to be higher than having multiple cracks at "nobodies".

You generally have to overpay massively to move up the first round and unless you are in a unique situation it's rarely worth it. In our case we would probably have to offload every tradable asset we have for the next 2 years to even have a shot at moving into the top 10 and even then, we may not end up with the player we want.

If we could turn just this years and next year's 1st into Watson I would have a different view but that wouldn't be anywhere near enough to get high enough up the order for him.

I think the best bet for us is to try get 2-3 picks before 35 this year (even if that means splitting our 1st), trade F2 for Hollands and keep our F1 to turn into whatever we need to match Camporeale bids.
Our list manager pretty much confirmed the view with this draft that there is a very significant gap this year in the top 10-12 to the next level, we have people that watch these players for years who are informed to make these decisions.

We have the Campo brothers next year, so why not try to get one of the better players in this draft, there is a distinct talent drop off after the 1st part of this draft.
 

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My Dad is still waiting for Kane Lucas to come on. "He just needs one more year and he'll come good, just wait!"
heard his hammy ping from where I was sitting...............
 
Where else are we going to get all the points necessary for matching Ben a likely top 5 pick and Lucas then in the 2nd round? Considering I think it's unwise to trade in our 2025 FRP into 2024.
worst case, which isn't actually a terrible scenario, is we go into points deficit the following year. If our first pick in 2025 (which will be 18, am I doing it right?...) gets shifted back one or two spots but we had a good crack this year as well as Ben & Lucas next year, then that's hardly the end of the world.
 
Our list manager pretty much confirmed the view with this draft that there is a very significant gap this year in the top 10-12 to the next level, we have people that watch these players for years who are informed to make these decisions.

We have the Campo brothers next year, so why not try to get one of the better players in this draft, there is a distinct talent drop off after the 1st part of this draft.
That's merely turning probabilities into an definitive observation that doesn't allow for permutations. List managers are human, too.
 
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In my opinion with the following we can address all our list needs, have enough points for the Campo twins, AND retain our entire set of draft picks for 2025.


Zac Fisher + Future 3rd (~55) —> Future 2nd (~23) - North Melb

Future 2nd (~35) —> Elijah Hollands - Gold Coast

Paddy Dow —> Pick 54 + Future 3rd (~50) - St Kilda


2023 DRAFT HAND: 16, 54, 68

2024 DRAFT HAND: F1, F2 (NM), F3 (StK), F4 - enough points to match bids for Ben at pick 5 and Lucas at pick 20


Pick 16 - Mid-Forward (Fogarty/Cuningham upgrade) - Darcy Wilson, Koltyn Tholstrup, Harry DeMattia

Pick 54 - Best available/biggest slider

Pick 68 - Promote Boyd/Cottrell to the senior list


Use our last list spot on an SSP selection.
Nothing really wrong with that. Trades seem reasonable. Think if we were to down this route though, we'd then split 16 as has been mentioned as a possibility by Austin, perhaps in combination with the 54 to make two picks in the 20-35 range.

My view - we'll try to bring something else forward from 2024 to improve our 2023 hand.

Also, no available spot for an SSP selection in this scenario.
 
Not really at all we are paying list managers to make informed judgements, as opposed to Big footy supporters watching a highlights package of each player.
Yes, well... what do you follow it with? There's a drop-off in talent after (roughly) pick 12. That can be used to justify anything, it means nothing outside of context. Clubs who don't have a pick in that range might as well give up, now.
 
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