Prediction 2024 Round 1 Team

[Mr Meow]

I’m no Kolo lover at all.

But we need him to play on a tall.

Imagine is SDK went down and we only had Henry as a tall back.

Zuthrie kind of plays tall but isn’t a true KPP.

Blitz could go back but it would really stuff up our ruck rotations.

Not really sure what the Saints forward structure is though to be honest.

King and Owens play for sure.. and I’ll guess SDK + Henry take those guys.

Then Sharman is 193cm (not sure if I’m best side… might be) and Membrey is only listed at 188cm but plays tall.

I’ll guess Kolo and Zuthrie take those guys.

If our MC thinks one of them doesn’t play then that’ll be the possible green light to leave Kolo out (if fit) and I’ll be wrong in assume he is just selected… and Zuthrie plays as an undersized back.

Scott seems to always go with Kolo though.

If those 4 guys play for the Saints he just can’t be left out no matter how much we don’t like him.

If Kolo not playing gets my man Mannagh in I’ll happily take an undersized backline

Has Scott ever fielded less than 3 tall defenders?

We've certainly seen 4 more than 2. So I think you're right.

In an emergency scenario where Kolo/SDK/Henry wasn't available, I think Blicavs would be rolled back there and some other reshuffle made for secondary ruck. And later in the year I suspect COS will get his chance.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Has Scott ever fielded less than 3 tall defenders?

We've certainly seen 4 more than 2. So I think you're right.

In an emergency scenario where Kolo/SDK/Henry wasn't available, I think Blicavs would be rolled back there and some other reshuffle made for secondary ruck. And later in the year I suspect COS will get his chance.

More likely Stanley plays a kick behind the play after the centre bounce and Blicavs becomes our ruckman like we did in the prelim against Brisbane.

But yeah it's hard to see how we work the structure if Kolo and Bews are both left out. O'Connor would probably have to play in defence.

However it's done it's really hard to fit all of Clark, Dempsey and Mannagh if Bowes is playing midfield. It just leaves us short on defenders. So much more likely Kolo and O'Connor play while Mannagh misses out.

 

[Cataholic]

I’ve accepted it. I just don’t like it.

This

 

[Mr Meow]

More likely Stanley plays a kick behind the play after the centre bounce and Blicavs becomes our ruckman like we did in the prelim against Brisbane.

But yeah it's hard to see how we work the structure if Kolo and Bews are both left out. O'Connor would probably have to play in defence.

However it's done it's really hard to fit all of Clark, Dempsey and Mannagh if Bowes is playing midfield. It just leaves us short on defenders. So much more likely Kolo and O'Connor play while Mannagh misses out.

Agreed.

SDK, Henry, Kolo the keys.
Stewart, Z.Guthrie the mobile rebounders.
Duncan, O'Connor, Holmes all spending time in defence (shared role rather than full games back there).

My main question mark is on whether Tuohy fits into this scheme, or if he is a sub, or if he misses out altogether.

I have it in my mind that he and MOC can't both start without some other significant change.

 

[Cataholic]

I’m no Kolo lover at all.

But we need him to play on a tall.

Imagine is SDK went down and we only had Henry as a tall back.

Zuthrie kind of plays tall but isn’t a true KPP.

Blitz could go back but it would really stuff up our ruck rotations.

Not really sure what the Saints forward structure is though to be honest.

King and Owens play for sure.. and I’ll guess SDK + Henry take those guys.

Then Sharman is 193cm (not sure if I’m best side… might be) and Membrey is only listed at 188cm but plays tall.

I’ll guess Kolo and Zuthrie take those guys.

If our MC thinks one of them doesn’t play then that’ll be the possible green light to leave Kolo out (if fit) and I’ll be wrong in assume he is just selected… and Zuthrie plays as an undersized back.

Scott seems to always go with Kolo though.

If those 4 guys play for the Saints he just can’t be left out no matter how much we don’t like him.

If Kolo not playing gets my man Mannagh in I’ll happily take an undersized backline

You're 'right' on most points....Scott will play Kolo etc.

I just don't think it's the right way to go from here, and it stifles our development.

We need manna from heaven!

 

[Footy Smarts]

Agreed.

SDK, Henry, Kolo the keys.
Stewart, Z.Guthrie the mobile rebounders.
Duncan, O'Connor, Holmes all spending time in defence (shared role rather than full games back there).

My main question mark is on whether Tuohy fits into this scheme, or if he is a sub, or if he misses out altogether.

I have it in my mind that he and MOC can't both start without some other significant change.

I think with Tuohy it depends a bit on Blicavs. I think we need 2 half back/defensive wingers that run hard defensively without the ball. Tuohy, O'Connor and Blicavs are really the options.

If Clark and Bowes are playing as midfielders then Blicavs can push out of the centre more except when rucking so one of Tuohy or O'Connor can drop out probably as sub.

 

[BORIS332]

Clark needs to be in the 22 (probably for bews) and mannagh is the ideal sub.

Why?

 

[BORIS332]

How often did we play 4 last year. My memory of that was it wasn’t often.

Edit: eyeballing the list it was maybe three games?

Spot on, it was three games. And in two of them (rounds 16 & 21), a KPF was subbed out.

 

[bombersboy]

Why?

I thought Clark was in our best 4 mids in both practice games. Should play. In the right circumstances Mannagh could be a high impact sub. Not sure on how much versatility he brings which is often how we like to fill the sub role. Bews not as important if both Butler and Higgins do not play.

 

[BORIS332]

I thought Clark was in our best 4 mids in both practice games. Should play. In the right circumstances Mannagh could be a high impact sub. Not sure on how much versatility he brings which is often how we like to fill the sub role. Bews not as important if both Butler and Higgins do not play.

Not an unrealistic call but, as far as pure mids go, Atkins, Bowes and Bruhn are all well ahead of Clark. Then you have Blicavs, Dangerfield, Duncan and Holmes who are also ahead of him, but might play in other positions on the ground.

I wouldn't be surprised if Clark is in the starting 22, I just don't think he stacks up as a pure mid just yet, and I don't think he has the versatility to play any other role.

 

[cats_09]

Spot on, it was three games. And in two of them (rounds 16 & 21), a KPF was subbed out.

View attachment 1919123

In round 11 against GWS it was SDK who started forward in his return from the facial fracture. At halftime he swapped with J. Henry who went forward, and when Ratugolea was subbed out injured , the trio of JK, SDK & J. Henry playing in defence

In round 16 against Sydney they tried all 4 in defence with Ratugolea playing as the spare/loose defender - it didn't work and he was subbed out for tactical reasons

In round 21 we were missing Hawkins & Blicavs - Jack started forward & was supporting Stanley in the ruck, before he was subbed out with a foot injury. I still argue he shouldn't have started that match & instead been a late out - he wasn't happy with something during the early warm-up on the field & spent most of his time talking walk the medical team

So there was only 1 game where we even tried playing 4 talls in defence & it just didn't work well with the balance - not sure I see is trying it too often this season

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Dempsey and mannagh both have to play imo. Which means hard calls with a squeeze for spots esp forward.

Mullin is not ready.
Bews is done.
Neale is decent but hes not playing ahead of henry.

I was really impressed with clark. Hes less ready right now than dempsey snd mannagh are but hes one who if we pump games into i think in 18 months he will really be something. He has so much potential.

Id go

B: zuthrie sdk stewart
HB: Duncan J Henry Holmes
C: Blicavs Bruhn Tuohy
HF: Miers Cameron Close
F: O Henry Hawkins Stengle
R: Stanley Dangerfield Atkins
Int: Clark Dempsey Mannagh Bowes MOC

Mannagh or bowes are probably ideal subs as guys who can play multiple roles. Maybe moc too. Kolo will probably be picked (i wouldnt but the club will) so one on the bench misses out.

The bolded is a bit of a disappointment to me, as we needed him to step up to AFL standard to take the mantle from bews. It is an important role we may look vulnerable in at times with bews decline and in 2025 may have a gaping hole with no small defender AFL standard.

 

[moond0g]

The bolded is a bit of a disappointment to me, as we needed him to step up to AFL standard to take the mantle from bews. It is an important role we may look vulnerable in at times with bews decline and in 2025 may have a gaping hole with no small defender AFL standard.

I think with time, maybe even during this year, it'll happen.

Some were hoping with a preseason that Mullin would be a round 1 starter this year. But maybe we have to temper expectations just a fraction. The fact he played AFL games at all last year shows how quick he's adapted. If it takes another year before he can become a regular, then in the scheme of things that would still be a very quick transition.

 

[D BRIDGE]

The bolded is a bit of a disappointment to me, as we needed him to step up to AFL standard to take the mantle from bews. It is an important role we may look vulnerable in at times with bews decline and in 2025 may have a gaping hole with no small defender AFL standard.

I agree, Mullin hasn’t come on at all and it’s a bit of a disappointment, but he still has lots of time to improve.

MOC to my eyes seemed to be at his best a few years ago and was playing really well as a small defender… but we have moved him around all over the place to the point where he doesn’t have a true position and I’d be happy for him to not even be in the side… But maybe if he was just dialled in as a small defender he could get some good form back and take over from Bews.

Mullin imo (and this might sound stupid) would/could be well served in playing midfield in the VFL for a season.

Because he needs to work on getting the ball and becoming more attacking with it.

I feel he is playing super safe and just trying to lock down on a small forward and thus is not really getting it much, or getting it enough to become comfortable when he has it.

I just think the more he gets it, the faster he will (maybe) start to become more attacking… and giving him a job to lockdown on a small forward in starvation corner isn’t helping his overall game.

Chuck him in the guts in the VFL where it doesn’t matter if we lose and tell him to start hunting the pill and trying to use his pace when he gets it.

He will get the ball much more and against lesser opponents should be able to gain confidence and become more attacking faster that way.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I agree, Mullin hasn’t come on at all and it’s a bit of a disappointment, but he still has lots of time to improve.

MOC to my eyes seemed to be at his best a few years ago and was playing really well as a small defender… but we have moved him around all over the place to the point where he doesn’t have a true position and I’d be happy for him to not even be in the side… But maybe if he was just dialled in as a small defender he could get some good form back and take over from Bews.

Mullin imo (and this might sound stupid) would/could be well served in playing midfield in the VFL for a season.

Because he needs to work on getting the ball and becoming more attacking with it.

I feel he is playing super safe and just trying to lock down on a small forward and thus is not really getting it much, or getting it enough to become comfortable when he has it.

I just think the more he gets it, the faster he will (maybe) start to become more attacking… and giving him a job to lockdown on a small forward in starvation corner isn’t helping his overall game.

Chuck him in the guts in the VFL where it doesn’t matter if we lose and tell him to start hunting the pill and trying to use his pace when he gets it.

He will get the ball much more and against lesser opponents should be able to gain confidence and become more attacking faster that way.

Mullin was pretty attacking in his half against Essendon. He started on a wing and got into some dangerous positions including having a shot on the run from 50.

 

[catempire]

Spot on, it was three games. And in two of them (rounds 16 & 21), a KPF was subbed out.

View attachment 1919123

Thanks! So as unlikely as it is that Kolo is left out, I don’t think it’s right to characterise that as a move of playing 2 KPDs instead of 4. We played 2 more often than we played 4 last year. Obviously 3 is more the norm but I would also argue that Kolo doesn’t often play on talls and usually takes the medium sized forwards like Stringer, De Goey, etc. We have other players who can play that size - Stewart and Z.Guthrie come to mind.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Mullin was pretty attacking in his half against Essendon. He started on a wing and got into some dangerous positions including having a shot on the run from 50.

This just backs up my point.

He can be unleashed to play more attacking roles in games that mean nothing… like a practice match or in the VFL (no offence to the VFL btw).

If he plays in the AFL in a game for 4 points he is not going to get unleashed or get the ball as much due to probably being given a job to lock down in the back pocket and he has shown to play very safe with ball in hand in this situation because the pressure to not turn it over is much higher.

Let the kid rip in the VFL I say.

 

[Mr Meow]

Spot on, it was three games. And in two of them (rounds 16 & 21), a KPF was subbed out.

View attachment 1919123

2-5 record with two KPDs.

8-1-7 record with three or more.

It seems it happened when we had two KPDs injured rather than Scott being comfortable with it.

It didn't happen once when Henry was available.

I could only see it happening if one of SDK, Kolo and Henry are injured again - and they think it's too early to introduce COS.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Thanks! So as unlikely as it is that Kolo is left out, I don’t think it’s right to characterise that as a move of playing 2 KPDs instead of 4. We played 2 more often than we played 4 last year. Obviously 3 is more the norm but I would also argue that Kolo doesn’t often play on talls and usually takes the medium sized forwards like Stringer, De Goey, etc. We have other players who can play that size - Stewart and Z.Guthrie come to mind.

I’d guess that the majority of the times we played 2 key backs last year would have been due to lack of availability and not because CS wanted 2 over 3 (or even 4).

We were just destroyed by injuries will all our key backs missing at times.

I’m no huge Kolo fan… I’ve been strong on here of late that I don’t want him getting more than a single year contract from here on, but I think if he is solid this year he still probably will.

Kolo in the side just gives us a bit more flexibility.

If Blitz or Stanley go down it allows us to move an SDK or Henry into the ruck.

If we want to pull a move to chuck Jack Henry forward… having Kolo in allows us to do that (can’t do it if he is out and it just leaves SDK as our only talk back).

He can slide onto a tall forward (if he already isn’t standing one) if one of SDK or Henry take a spell on the bench.

Anyway if Kolo is fit and we leave him out I’ll be shocked.

Fingers crossed he plays well, because he is rarely dropped from memory.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Mullin was pretty attacking in his half against Essendon. He started on a wing and got into some dangerous positions including having a shot on the run from 50.

I think it's a conundrum with him. He looks like a very attacking player but if we're going to get games into him it has to be through the small defender role.

I like the idea of rolling him through midfield in the 2s a bit this year and even giving him a taste forward to work on his overall footy IQ.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Also on Mullin, if he's not meeting expectations after 1 year of footy ever then maybe the problem is the expectation

 

[moond0g]

I’d guess that the majority of the times we played 2 key backs last year would have been due to lack of availability and not because CS wanted 2 over 3 (or even 4).

We were just destroyed by injuries will all our key backs missing at times.

I’m no huge Kolo fan… I’ve been strong on here of late that I don’t want him getting more than a single year contract from here on, but I think if he is solid this year he still probably will.

Kolo in the side just gives us a bit more flexibility.

If Blitz or Stanley go down it allows us to move an SDK or Henry into the ruck.

If we want to pull a move to chuck Jack Henry forward… having Kolo in allows us to do that (can’t do it if he is out and it just leaves SDK as our only talk back).

He can slide onto a tall forward (if he already isn’t standing one) if one of SDK or Henry take a spell on the bench.

Anyway if Kolo is fit and we leave him out I’ll be shocked.

Fingers crossed he plays well, because he is rarely dropped from memory.

Kolo offers us that flexibility purely because he is the third tall defender, and we have no one else that can realisitcally play that position right now (except for perhaps Stewart, but you don't want to be in a position where he has to play that kind of role). This is why I advocated dropping Kolo for Esava last year, because i think in the long run we'd be a much better side for it, but that is a different story.

But once COS develops to the point of being able to play alongside SDK and Henry, and we're able to drop Kolo, our team will be better for it.

 

[moond0g]

I agree, Mullin hasn’t come on at all and it’s a bit of a disappointment, but he still has lots of time to improve.

MOC to my eyes seemed to be at his best a few years ago and was playing really well as a small defender… but we have moved him around all over the place to the point where he doesn’t have a true position and I’d be happy for him to not even be in the side… But maybe if he was just dialled in as a small defender he could get some good form back and take over from Bews.

Mullin imo (and this might sound stupid) would/could be well served in playing midfield in the VFL for a season.

Because he needs to work on getting the ball and becoming more attacking with it.

I feel he is playing super safe and just trying to lock down on a small forward and thus is not really getting it much, or getting it enough to become comfortable when he has it.

I just think the more he gets it, the faster he will (maybe) start to become more attacking… and giving him a job to lockdown on a small forward in starvation corner isn’t helping his overall game.

Chuck him in the guts in the VFL where it doesn’t matter if we lose and tell him to start hunting the pill and trying to use his pace when he gets it.

He will get the ball much more and against lesser opponents should be able to gain confidence and become more attacking faster that way.

Agree on both counts.

I think Mullin would benefit from just touching the football as often as possible in the VFL, and then he can settle into a position with a view for the AFL side after that.

Re. MOC he reminds me a little of Blicavs and Guthrie from a few years ago, shuffling around and just filling gaps rather than being settled into a role and allowed to flourish. You could argue (probably rightly) Blicavs and Guthrie are just more talented, but they seem to have improved considerably since being given clear roles. If MOC was developed purely as a small defender, I'd be confident he could play that at a reasonably consistent level.

 

[D BRIDGE]

But once COS develops to the point of being able to play alongside SDK and Henry, and we're able to drop Kolo, our team will be better for it.

No arguments from me there.

When COS eventually is ready and deemed better than Kolo I’ll happily say goodbye to Kolo.

That’s just another reason why I don’t want to be giving him 3 years at the end of this year.

He might find his way out of our best team very soon and he’d just be insurance after that.

Although we do need insurance so whatever will be, will be with his next contract.

I’m all for SDK and COS forming a very strong/formidable FB and CHB duo and Henry can be the third hybrid tall.

 

[CoolCat75]

My takeaways after trying to monitor those players that have played multiple positions in their career, during both pre-season games (from TV).

• O'Connor : wing
• Tuohy : mostly wing, a little in defence v Essendon
• Blicavs : mix of wing, mid and ruck
• Bowes : mid
• Duncan : mostly defence, swapping with Holmes in midfield
• Holmes: mix of mid and defence, probably more mid, swapping with Duncan
• Henry and SDK : thankfully permanently in defence

With that in mind, my predicted Round 1 team

FB: Kolo SDK ZGuthrie
HB: Stewart JHenry Duncan
C: Blicavs Holmes Tuohy
R: Stanley Danger Atkins
HF: Close Cameron Miers
FF: Stengle Hawkins OHenry
Int: Bruin Bowes Bews Dempsey

Sub : O’Connor (or swap with Tuohy)
Next in line : Clark (unlucky), Mannagh, Mullin, Neal, Knevitt

Alternatively, they play O'Connor on the wing, Blicavs to inside mid, and Bowes to sub