Game Day 2024 Round 6 Discussion - F*** Bevo & Hinkley & Mitchell

[JY5165]

Can't decide out of Butters, Serong and Heeney as captain kenties.

What are we thinking out of these 3?

serong for me, easiest matchup

have vc bont but considering gambling on serong

 

[JY5165]

 

[treeebeard]

serong for me, easiest matchup

have vc bont but considering gambling on serong

I don't think WCE have given up big scores to midfieldwrs this year. Serong is risky

 

[treeebeard]

Anyone know what formula that kent uses to calculate BEs?

 

[Ljam]

WCE have not really given up any big scores against midfielders, their contested footy game has actually been pretty good.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Solid reasoning. I like it. Thanks.

Just thinking on this further ("my name's GH and I'm an over-thinker"), but it is worth noting that Graham's 'average' first game was still a 67, which is obviously quite close to Wilson's 69. So his demonstrated range (in only 2 games) has been 67-91. I'm still someone who will always take a 65+ from a rookie, especially when there are sub threats in place because the potential loss (50+ points) far outweighs the potential gain (10-15 points). However, I do think "best 18" creates a different circumstance, depending on your side. If you have a strong team with few rookies, where a score like 69 (or one that ends up short of 69) is likely to be excluded anyway, then you may as well roll the dice that you can add an (unlikely) superior score into your 18 as an inferior score will make no difference. However, if your side is like mine (still has heaps of rookies like Reid, Darcy, Wilson, Roberts, Closehy, Graham + D'Ambro, Williams, etc) ythen there's every chance 69 and perhaps lower will still be counted so I wouldn't take the risk.

The other consideration are your priorities/league match up. If your priority is a particular league win and your team is worse/predicted to lose comfortably, you may as well go aggressive in the hope of a higher score getting you an unlikely win. If it looks pretty even or you are a decent chance of winning, then the safe play is taking the 69 IMO.

 

[SC fish]

Just thinking on this further ("my name's GH and I'm an over-thinker"), but it is worth noting that Graham's 'average' first game was still a 67, which is obviously quite close to Wilson's 69. So his demonstrated range (in only 2 games) has been 67-91. I'm still someone who will always take a 65+ from a rookie, especially when there are sub threats in place because the potential loss (50+ points) far outweighs the potential gain (10-15 points). However, I do think "best 18" creates a different circumstance, depending on your side. If you have a strong team with few rookies, where a score like 69 (or one that ends up short of 69) is likely to be excluded anyway, then you may as well roll the dice that you can add an (unlikely) superior score into your 18 as an inferior score will make no difference. However, if your side is like mine (still has heaps of rookies like Reid, Darcy, Wilson, Roberts, Closehy, Graham + D'Ambro, Williams, etc) ythen there's every chance 69 and perhaps lower will still be counted so I wouldn't take the risk.

The other consideration are your priorities/league match up. If your priority is a particular league win and your team is worse/predicted to lose comfortably, you may as well go aggressive in the hope of a higher score getting you an unlikely win. If it looks pretty even or you are a decent chance of winning, then the safe play is taking the 69 IMO.

I like your (over)thinking

 

[NinjaSwan]

Hmmmmm. Should I bank Wilson’s 68 and bench one of Will Graham or Matt Roberts?

Of course I looped the wrong rookie

Depends on the rest of your team but I would field Graham/Roberts (I’m fielding both over Garcia’s 69), if everyone in my starting side hits their average that 69 would be the 2nd worst and comfortably drop out so may as well roll the dice given the score likely won’t count anyway.

 

[tiltraise]

Think I might take Wilsons score.

234/3

 

[StevieWonder]

After sanders was subbed had to change my original plan of trading Clark out.

Anyone thought of risking bringing in Lyons for him this week? With Bailey out for 4 weeks does that guarantee him game time or do we still think he’s sub risk and could get dropped regardless?

In 4 weeks with a 85 average would make roughly 150k I think. Big risk though


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[vjknight]

Nick who ?



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[buttox]

Nick who ?



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That would throw the cat amongst the pigeons

 

[vjknight]

That would throw the cat amongst the pigeons

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[JY5165]

 

[Wellsy35]

Would people field Sharp or Graham this week? Can't take Wilson or Garcia's scores.

 

[mochacinolatte]

Would people field Sharp or Graham this week? Can't take Wilson or Garcia's scores.

Sharp tbh.

 

[SavDog23]

Nick who ?



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Tweet deleted. What did it say?

 

[SC fish]

Darcy score was pretty low last night any particular reason why?

 

[Caztheconquerer]

Darcy score was pretty low last night any particular reason why?

Affected by lobb I reckon

 

[buttox]

Tweet deleted. What did it say?

Daicos not training today possible late out

 

[buttox]

Darcy score was pretty low last night any particular reason why?

Juh and Darcy lead to different spots..
I lost track of how many times lobb flew for marks against Darcy or Naughton.

 

[SavDog23]

Daicos not training today possible late out

Now THAT would be...

 

[TempletonTheRat]

Darcy score was pretty low last night any particular reason why?

he is essentially a key forward with a bit of ruck chop out. His scores will be up and down. if last night is his floor he will be fine. he is also capable of popping out a ton here and there.

 

[SC fish]

Daicos not training today possible late out

Hmmm if so I can switch him to MID and have the Wilson 69 as backup

 

[Lord De Goey]