List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.2

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Their list manager admitted they need to trade the pick and that they can wait until draft night if they want.

Yes if they keep pick 9 as it stands they would need to trade in another pick in the 30's to go with their 31 to make Kako pick -20%. Maybe Stringer gets traded and so the Dons just need to bridge the points gap, or wear the % deficit next year.

Or they might trade with other clubs besides us. I would assume that they will be looking for the most generous deal they can.

How much does St Kilda want pick 9 over other clubs?

As fans we would all love pick 7,8, 9.
 
2 ass end picks for Paton & Hayes make a difference to academy/Father son picks.

For example they have 53.

That has a DVI of 233.

I think that pick comes in 10 spots roughly before a bid on Cole or Peckett.

So P43 would have 378.

If a bid came in at 40 - it would be 429 points - 20% discount.

So 343 is required. Which means we could match and get another P70 back
Probably more likely both players leave as delisted free agents i think
 

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Probably more likely both players leave as delisted free agents i think


Do Clubs still have to take 3 players in the main draft? Or has that rule gone?

Pies only have three ok picks. The other s are junk picks that you would imagine that they would not use?

If GWS trades for Stringer then a pick or two will go to the Dons.
 
2 ass end picks for Paton & Hayes make a difference to academy/Father son picks.

For example they have 53.

That has a DVI of 233.

I think that pick comes in 10 spots roughly before a bid on Cole or Peckett.

So P43 would have 378.

If a bid came in at 40 - it would be 429 points - 20% discount.

So 343 is required. Which means we could match and get another P70 back
Cole looks like a 30-40 range
Hoffman 40+
Peckett not mentioned so may get through to rookie listing

from the few rankings I've bothered to look at
 
Do Clubs still have to take 3 players in the main draft? Or has that rule gone?

Pies only have three ok picks. The other s are junk picks that you would imagine that they would not use?

If GWS trades for Stringer then a pick or two will go to the Dons.
rookie elevations also count, but yes still has to be 3 main list additions
 
Yes if they keep pick 9 as it stands they would need to trade in another pick in the 30's to go with their 31 to make Kako pick -20%. Maybe Stringer gets traded and so the Dons just need to bridge the points gap, or wear the % deficit next year.

Or they might trade with other clubs besides us. I would assume that they will be looking for the most generous deal they can.

How much does St Kilda want pick 9 over other clubs?

As fans we would all love pick 7,8, 9.
No idea how much they want 9 specifically.

I know they want another pick.

I knew they wanted to chat to the bombers (this was last weekend)

Which was confirmed by John Donohoe. But he went a step further and reported that an actual framework was being worked on and it involved our future first and later pick swaps.
 
No idea how much they want 9 specifically.

I know they want another pick.

I knew they wanted to chat to the bombers (this was last weekend)

Which was confirmed by John Donohoe. But he went a step further and reported that an actual framework was being worked on and it involved our future first and later pick swaps.
Find it weird that Cal hasn't reported it since he's always first onto Bombers news
 

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We are not in the running for 9 as it stands now
Be very surprised if we land 9

I think Saints are a big chance to land 9. It seems that Melbourne are now zeroing in on Gold Coast’s pick 13, which is interesting.

The club to keep an eye on is Carlton. They could be the wildcard.

Blues now have picks 12 & 14. Would they potentially look to move up the draft order by trading to Essendon 12 & 14 for 9 and a F1? Bombers can then match the Kako bid with 12 and use 14.

Then Blues might look at splitting 9 for 15 & 16. Giving them two firsts this year and an earlier first next year.

Just hypothesising.


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2 ass end picks for Paton & Hayes make a difference to academy/Father son picks.

For example they have 53.

That has a DVI of 233.

I think that pick comes in 10 spots roughly before a bid on Cole or Peckett.

So P43 would have 378.

If a bid came in at 40 - it would be 429 points - 20% discount.

So 343 is required. Which means we could match and get another P70 back
Surely they will just wait until we delist them and pick them up for nothing?
 
I think Saints are a big chance to land 9. It seems that Melbourne are now zeroing in on Gold Coast’s pick 13, which is interesting.

The club to keep an eye on is Carlton. They could be the wildcard.

Blues now have picks 12 & 14. Would they potentially look to move up the draft order by trading to Essendon 12 & 14 for 9 and a F1? Bombers can then match the Kako bid with 12 and use 14.

Then Blues might look at splitting 9 for 15 & 16. Giving them two firsts this year and an earlier first next year.

Just hypothesising.


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How many future 1sts do Carlton have
 
Pick 74 carries no points
Would gain points as other picks get eaten, all the junk picks used by Brisbane (Ashcroft, Marshall), Gold Coast (Lombard) and Essendon (Kako) will see it jump at least 5, probably 10 spots.
 
Would gain points as other picks get eaten, all the junk picks used by Brisbane (Ashcroft, Marshall), Gold Coast (Lombard) and Essendon (Kako) will see it jump at least 5, probably 10 spots.
Plus potentially Welsh(?) and the Camporales. I reckon 46(?) comes in to around 39, and 74 will be in the early 60s by the time a bid would make sense on either Cole or Hofmann. Peckett gets through to the rookie draft for sure.

But I think it won't matter too much, because I doubt either get bid on before 50. Lateish Academy picks always get bid on like 10-15 picks later than they should.
 
It’s also worth noting that from Pick 41 onwards, your next pick - whatever it is - is used to match a bid. Points and discounts no longer apply then.

So hypothetically, we could match a bid placed at Pick 41 on Cole, Peckett or Hofmann with Pick 77 if that was our next pick.

With that in mind, there’s no way we take an early 40s pick into that stage of the draft. We have a target on our back after Bassett ruffled feathers and I also think there’s a big chance that Sydney will bid on one or more of our prospects so that Kinnear Beatson can get one back over Simon Dalrymple for leaving the Swans.

That last time it happened was in 2022 when Alwyn Davey Junior was bid on at Pick 45 by the Hawks. Essendon had to use their next pick which was 48. In that case, Essendon were made to pay almost full value for Davey Jnr.

That’s why getting Collingwood’s last pick (currently 55) for Jack Hayes would be very handy. We could then turn that into 70 and 76 from Richmond (who won’t use those picks) or 71 and 77 from the Hawks. That would cover bids to two of them. If they all get bid on then we could live trade a future 4th.

The downside to that is if we get through that far in the draft and our players haven’t been bid on, it’s very unlikely we could trade those selections out to the future. But assuming we want Cole/Hofmann/Peckett, then it’s still worth it to pick them up at that stage.

Assuming Hayes, Membrey, Paton and Crouch depart, we’d be hoping for
  • 3 picks as high as possible,
  • very late or rookie picks for Cole, Hofmann and Peckett. (If we rate them)
  • Sandringham rookie.
  • Macrae and Soldo for 43 and future pick(s).
  • Max Hall also takes a list spot
Other one is Hotton who it feels like we haven’t delisted yet, just in case we draft his brother. If we don’t then he’ll go and open a position for a SSP/DFA such as Ethan Phillips or Curtis Taylor.
 

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List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.2

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