USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[Borough Blood]

How have I not? His claim (that this has all been done to create riots again) is baseless with zero proof behind it. Meanwhile he’s the favourite on every bookie in Australia.

You can’t pick and choose what a conspiracy theory is.

Comparing his posting to Celeb 101 is arguing in bad faith and you know it.

 

[adogsfan5]

Comparing his posting to Celeb 101 is arguing in bad faith and you know it.

That’s the only part you managed to pick up in my posting? Good lord

 

[Borough Blood]

That’s the only part you managed to pick up in my posting? Good lord

That’s the part I take issue with.
Let’s leave it at that.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Yeah, but heaps of Americans really don't care.

If anything, the more performative and fake someone is shown to be, the more lots of Yanks respect them.

Thanks for nothing, Hollywood.

 

[adogsfan5]

It’s hyperbole but it’s certainly to
A) try drive a result
B) provide basis for claiming results are rigged if don’t go trumps way.
C) trump has shown he will leverage his supporters gullibility to create civil disruptions.

This is not crazy conspiracy theory. This is literally what happened in 2020. Remember Jan 6?

Polymarket seems to be the only thing at the moment showing Trump comfortably in front. Everything else shows it being tight, and that it could go either way.
Are you suggesting people are only following Polymarket / that they are taking it as gospel that he’s going to win / that they are ignoring everything else?

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Sorry, but it's not only the right who have politicised this most minority of minority issues.

We lefties have gleefully leapt at trans rights like it was the biggest issue facing the world.

 

[iBeng]

What a weird timeline we live in where they close a McDonalds so they can do a pretend work day for Donnie just to try and own the Democrats.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Of course, I realise I've further politicised trans rights by stating an opinion that too many people state an opinion on trans rights.

So if you do reply, say whatever you want, I won't be responding.

 

[GreyCrow]

Polymarket seems to be the only thing at the moment showing Trump comfortably in front. Everything else shows it being tight, and that it could go either way.
Are you suggesting people are only following Polymarket / that they are taking it as gospel that he’s going to win / that they are ignoring everything else?

Polymarket is being pushed by Musk on twitter

As noted by some - when the polls/market is good for your side you pump it up - when it is bad you ignore it or shoot the messenger



From USAToday

Four mystery accounts have collectively pumped $30 million in cryptocurrency wagers on a Trump victory into a popular prediction market, raising questions about the legitimacy of its results, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

Polymarket – a betting site often touted by billionaire Trump supporter Elon Musk – has gone from posting roughly even odds of a Harris or Trump victory just two weeks ago to giving Trump a 62% chance and Harris a 38% chance.

The surge has coincided with $30 million in Trump bets from four Polymarket accounts that were each funded by deposits from the same U.S. crypto exchange, according to Arkham, a firm that analyzes blockchain and crypto activity.
Miguel Morel, founder of Arkham, told the WSJ: “There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity.”

Although not illegal, or necessarily nefarious, the WSJ reported that some observers see the bets as part of an campaign to generate social media buzz and the perception that Trump is leading what polls say is an extremely close race.

 

[adogsfan5]

As noted by some - when the polls/market is good for your side you pump it up - when it is bad you ignore it or shoot the messenger

This.

 

[Satan]

What a weird timeline we live in where they close a McDonalds so they can do a pretend work day for Donnie just to try and own the Democrats.

was Trump known as the Hamburglar?

 

[Crankyhawk]

The big betters are not even from the US. Harris was the favourite not long ago and has been the favourite on a couple of occasions over the last few months (ahead 53.3/46.7 at one point in August).

Tin foil hat stuff this. Youre with Celebrity101 and his man made hurricanes.

It’s more plausible than artificial hurricanes
It is highly likely that trump will cry stolen election if he loses - I doubt this is in dispute
Betting markets that have him as favourite would also support a narrative of stolen election
It is widely assumed that there are Russian parties who are also promoting trump as a destabilising influence on USA, these would be able to place those bets. It is however not possible to prove where the bets are coming from (internet). And I wonder if a US citizen using a vpn would be able to place a bet..
It cannot be proven that trump has asked overseas people to place the bets.
But the theory is much more plausible (doesn’t need any novel technology or unrealistic motives) than hurricane machines (novel technology and would need an assumption that democrats controlling such a machine are irrational)

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Polymarket seems to be the only thing at the moment showing Trump comfortably in front. Everything else shows it being tight, and that it could go either way.
Are you suggesting people are only following Polymarket / that they are taking it as gospel that he’s going to win / that they are ignoring everything else?

It's just not polymarket. The poll averages have been flooded by rightwing pollsters who have all shown a tighter race than independent pollsters.

It's all part of a concerted effort. Like this isn't controversial in the slightest.

I'm more than happy to put my posting history up against yours. I've been on this board a looonnggg time.

 

[Saint Shags]

This.

Yet you don't acknowledge the article attached to his post. Why would 1 potential entity need to place $30m in wagering on Polymarket.
To suggest that it is all hunky dory is extremely naive.
Betting on its own is not some form of conspiracy. However the Polymarket issue does raise some pertinent questions and it would be folly not to examine it.

 

[blackshadow]

Oh dear.

Another arrow to add to Kamala's quiver at every rally and for every interview.

KH: I actually worked at McDonald's but Donald Trump just dressed up for photo opportunities at McDonald's in a store that was closed to the public. His time at McDonald's is as fake as his tan.

 

[EagleMan87]

Out of curiosity, why do you think that? Is it just normalcy bias?

Not an accusation I am just genuinely curious. The last term the guard rails barely held, but he was definitely trying to veer off them. This time around, there won't be any traditional republicans with an ounce of integrity like Pence, or cabinet members, to stop him. He will only have billionaires with vested interests and the likes of those responsible for project 2025 by his side. People who WANT to seize absolute power.

I just don't see how a second Trump term will not permanently damage or simply outright destroy US democracy in any sense that we would recognize it today. I am hoping you might be able to allay my anxieties on this.

Apologies, I should have been clearer. To me, what Trump plans to do would be distorting the current system; by 'collapse', I meant a complete breakdown of the union.

 

[adogsfan5]

Yet you don't acknowledge the article attached to his post. Why would 1 potential entity need to place $30m in wagering on Polymarket.

To suggest that it is all hunky dory is extremely naive.
Betting on its own is not some form of conspiracy. However the Polymarket issue does raise some pertinent questions and it would be folly not to examine it.

It’s been sent multiple times.
Everyone is just guessing at the moment. What else do you want me to say about it? We’re literally arguing over a guessing game and hypotheticals.

A) it’s been done to create anger and riots if he loses.
B) it’s been done to create buzz for Trump and prevent others from voting as it’s a “done and dusted” result.
C) It’s a foreign gambler purely wanting to win money.

All I have in front of me at the moment are the facts. The facts are, he’s the favourite on polymarket, yet he’s also the favourite across just about every other bookie. The multiple bets were placed by foreign punters (non-Americans) using cryptocurrency. Its the only market that shows him comfortably in front.

The assumption is that Polymarket is the main go to place for Americans to work out that trump is home and hosed. To then create false hope. Its a stretch.

$30m dropped by a foreign gambler, to purely cause chaos and riots.

If he ain’t winning, what a great chance to load up on Harris then at those odds. Put your money where your mouth is.

 

[big_e]

Cooker.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

markets shifting away from

Polymarket is being pushed by Musk on twitter

As noted by some - when the polls/market is good for your side you pump it up - when it is bad you ignore it or shoot the messenger



From USAToday

Four mystery accounts have collectively pumped $30 million in cryptocurrency wagers on a Trump victory into a popular prediction market, raising questions about the legitimacy of its results, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

Polymarket – a betting site often touted by billionaire Trump supporter Elon Musk – has gone from posting roughly even odds of a Harris or Trump victory just two weeks ago to giving Trump a 62% chance and Harris a 38% chance.

The surge has coincided with $30 million in Trump bets from four Polymarket accounts that were each funded by deposits from the same U.S. crypto exchange, according to Arkham, a firm that analyzes blockchain and crypto activity.
Miguel Morel, founder of Arkham, told the WSJ: “There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity.”

Although not illegal, or necessarily nefarious, the WSJ reported that some observers see the bets as part of an campaign to generate social media buzz and the perception that Trump is leading what polls say is an extremely close race.

Not just the pollsters, for what it's worth the betting market is also favoring Trump now significantly also.

grain of salt though, Clinton was heavy favorite against Trump when he won last time.

 

[OneGreatClub]

All of the political enemies of the US (Russia, China, NK, Iran) have a major interest in fomenting disruption, division and divisive events - all of which suits Trump. Hard to believe all the polymarket betting for Trump as well as the torrent of Republican skewing polls aren’t funded by these actors.

Then there is the relationship between Trump and Putin which seems to involve a lot of back channel calls. Dan Coats Trumps ex director of national security even has suggested that Putin has some compromising information on Trump. You could bet Trumps casino operations might be the source here.

 

[Royces Hart]

Are you suggesting people are only following Polymarket / that they are taking it as gospel that he’s going to win / that they are ignoring everything else?

It seemed to work on this guy

This poll just dropped post RFK Jr announcement....no sample size figures provided:

 

[OneGreatClub]

How have I not? His claim (that this has all been done to create riots again) is baseless with zero proof behind it. Meanwhile he’s the favourite on every bookie in Australia.

You can’t pick and choose what a conspiracy theory is.

Baseless? OMFG Do you live in a cave?

 

[adogsfan5]

It seemed to work on this guy

In fairness, that Twitter page shares so many different polls, some that has Harris in front. swan4life has just chosen to share the one that suits his needs.
That’s not the correct example to use.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Sure mate. I’m not even taking a position, just repeating the reporting that’s been done

Burst of trades inflates Trump’s margin in election prediction markets

Small group of bettors lifts odds of Republican victory to 62 per cent on cryptocurrency-based Polymarket

www.ft.com

Trump Elon Thiel Crypto

 

[Satan]

Trump Elon Thiel Chief Crypto

you know it makes sense