USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[pjcrows]

The really sad thing is the Republicans in both Congress and Senate let him off after J6 in my opinion,not to mention the delays in his court cases and appeals to a stacked Supreme Court.

What make you think they'd do any different?

 

[zumahawk]

Plain to see that MAGA is a white supremacist movement.

 

[Carringbush2010]

FMD it's tiresome reading one poster telling another poster "I know what you're really thinking".

New to BF?

 

[magpie_marty]

What make you think they'd do any different?

What make you think they'd do any different?

Supporting a cult urged to attend a protest at the Capitol was very well organized.
"Be there It Will Be Wild"
This was an attempt to overthrow an election.
A Supreme Court Judges wife also supported the effort!

 

[Satan]

New to BF?

I know what your really thinking

 

[magpie_marty]

The sad thing is that the scenarios in that piece are very believable. I mean he has been practicing this shit since before the 2020 election.
MAGA are well prepared to do it if he loses.
Hopefully this time Dems are better prepared to stop it.
Messy times ahead.

The RNC has a lady called Christina Bobb as lawyer,
This lady worked at OANN and promoted the Cyber Ninjas and also is a Lindell supporter and also works at RSBN.
She was also involved signing off on legal paperwork at Maralago that the FBI found all the documents since proven wrong.

 

[Satan]

Revealed: Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake

Data suggests canvassers linked to Elon Musk’s America Pac falsely claimed to have visited homes of potential voters

www.theguardian.com

Lol

 

[Spearman]

I guess if being a laughing stock is a positive thing….

Funny thing is if he had played it as a gag, it would have been pretty funny to a lot of people on any side. Take it as serious, or seriously expected to be taken as real is just pitiful.

 

[OneGreatClub]

The really sad thing is the Republicans in both Congress and Senate let him off after J6 in my opinion,not to mention the delays in his court cases and appeals to a stacked Supreme Court.

It’s so easy to escape accountability with power money and friends in high places

 

[ep2018]

Harris will win the same states Biden did in 2020 + North Carolina imo. Was bullish on Florida but I think Trump holds on barely. Democrats/Independents will come out in droves to vote against Trump. Moderate Republicans will stay home. Polling is off.

 

[iDon]

Harris will win the same states Biden did in 2020 + North Carolina imo. Was bullish on Florida but I think Trump holds on barely. Democrats/Independents will come out in droves to vote against Trump. Moderate Republicans will stay home. Polling is off.

BuT tHe BeTTiNg MaRKeTs?

 

[Chadwiko]

New Washington Post swing-state poll;

GA: Harris +4*
MI: Harris +2
PA: Harris +2
WI: Harris +3*

AZ: Trump +3
NC: Trump +3

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/21/harris-trump-post-schar-school-poll/?outputType=amp

 

[Bloods86]

New Washington Post swing-state poll;

GA: Harris +4*
MI: Harris +2
PA: Harris +2
WI: Harris +3*

AZ: Trump +3
NC: Trump +3

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/21/harris-trump-post-schar-school-poll/?outputType=amp

Georgia seems unlikely to be 4 points to Harris, certainly been a focus of Republicans after some wake up calls. It could still go blue, but think it'd be within 0.5% or something razor thin.

Wouldn't be surprised if NC is very close, there's a governor election with a very unpopular Republican candidate, so I think that helps Democrats more than normal, but it probably remains a tease by 1 or 2.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Is she that Russian spy that was at Mar ALago?

 

[Satan]

Is she that Russian spy that was at Mar ALago?

She was the girlfriend of nra bloke

Maria Butina: The Russian gun activist who was jailed in the US - BBC News

Maria Butina has been freed from US jail, after a prison stint for efforts to infiltrate US politics.

www.bbc.com

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457794-wyden-blasts-fec-republicans-for-blocking-probe-into-nra-over-possible/

 

[Present Not Past]

Plain to see that MAGA is a white supremacist movement.

It was a sea of white faces at the Capitol riot on Jan. 6.

 

[Present Not Past]

New Washington Post swing-state poll;

GA: Harris +4*
MI: Harris +2
PA: Harris +2
WI: Harris +3*

AZ: Trump +3
NC: Trump +3

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/21/harris-trump-post-schar-school-poll/?outputType=amp

I doubt those numbers in Arizona and North Carolina.
They would be positive to Harris atm.

 

[Present Not Past]

A great idea by team MAGA, nothing more American than that m8. Cooks a few chips and dominates the media cycle. But haters gonna hate because apparently it's the first time a politician has done a photo op that was stage managed or something lol.

Why didn't he go to an actually open McDonalds and serve real customers?
Sorry, I forgot that he passed on an actual 60 Minutes interview and instead went for an easy interview on Fox instead.
Must be a pattern there.
Just can't put my finger on it m8 as to why?

 

[eaglespremiers]

Polling is off.

It probably is. But historically the actual election result compared to the polling indications is very favourable to Trump regardless of overall outcome.

An example is Pennsylvania where about this time before the 2016 election polling indications were that Clinton had a 90% chance of winning and Clinton went into the election with over a 3.5% perceived lead. Trump flipped this by over 4% to win Pennsylvania. Similarly in 2020 Biden was 4.7% ahead in the polls leading into the election and whilst Biden did win Pennsylvania in the end, it was only by about 1.1%.

This example is emulated in other states as well. Michigan was almost 5% more favourable to Trump than the polling suggested the result would be in 2016 and over 5% more favourable in the polling in 2020 (when Trump lost the state to Biden). Ditto Wisconsin where the swing was almost 8% more favourable to Trump in 2020 than the polls suggested it would be. The polls currently suggest that both of these states are neck and neck at the moment. That means that if Trump even has a 1% swing in his favour (substantially less than the above swings in 2016 and 2020) he wins both of these states next month.

You think North Carolina will be won by Harris. However, Trump outperformed the polling by about 4.5% in 2016 and over 3% in 2020. For reference Trump is currently ahead by a small margin, at least according to the polling in North Carolina.

Also Trump outperformed the polling in Florida in the 2020 election by almost 6% and he is currently predicted (by polling data) to have a 6% lead on Harris for this current election. Despite this, I don't think the prediction is that Trump's going to win by double digits in Florida, however, you anticipate that Trump holds on "barely". Why do you believe this?

If what you are suggesting occurs (and Harris outperforms the polling to have clear wins in key swing states) and it is possible, however, that would buck the precedents of what we saw in 2016 and 2020 (based on the polling data).

I'm not suggesting that Trump will win all (or the majority) of the swing states necessarily I'm just interested as to, outside of personal preference, what makes you think this will occur in 2024 when we do have recent form lines as to the accuracy of polling compared to the actual election outcomes of Trump's two previous election tilts?

 

[GreyCrow]

I doubt those numbers in Arizona and North Carolina.
They would be positive to Harris atm.

No I think they are a little high but not to Harris

 

[ep2018]

It probably is. But historically the actual election result compared to the polling indications is very favourable to Trump regardless of overall outcome.

An example is Pennsylvania where about this time before the 2016 election polling indications were that Clinton had a 90% chance of winning and Clinton went into the election with over a 3.5% perceived lead. Trump flipped this by over 4% to win Pennsylvania. Similarly in 2020 Biden was 4.7% ahead in the polls leading into the election and whilst Biden did win Pennsylvania in the end, it was only by about 1.1%.

This example is emulated in other states as well. Michigan was almost 5% more favourable to Trump than the polling suggested the result would be in 2016 and over 5% more favourable in the polling in 2020 (when Trump lost the state to Biden). Ditto Wisconsin where the swing was almost 8% more favourable to Trump in 2020 than the polls suggested it would be. The polls currently suggest that both of these states are neck and neck at the moment. That means that if Trump even has a 1% swing in his favour (substantially less than the above swings in 2016 and 2020) he wins both of these states next month.

You think North Carolina will be won by Harris. However, Trump outperformed the polling by about 4.5% in 2016 and over 3% in 2020. For reference Trump is currently ahead by a small margin, at least according to the polling in North Carolina.

Also Trump outperformed the polling in Florida in the 2020 election by almost 6% and he is currently predicted (by polling data) to have a 6% lead on Harris for this current election. Despite this, I don't think the prediction is that Trump's going to win by double digits in Florida, however, you anticipate that Trump holds on "barely". Why do you believe this?

If what you are suggesting occurs (and Harris outperforms the polling to have clear wins in key swing states) and it is possible, however, that would buck the precedents of what we saw in 2016 and 2020 (based on the polling data).

I'm not suggesting that Trump will win all (or the majority) of the swing states necessarily I'm just interested as to, outside of personal preference, what makes you think this will occur in 2024 when we do have recent form lines as to the accuracy of polling compared to the actual election outcomes of Trump's two previous election tilts?

My post was more on gut feeling, I didnt deserve your very intricate and detailed response. I refuse to believe Trump will improve on his 2020 results with the overturning of Dobbs, and my completely uneducated opinion is that the polling is factoring in the underestimation of the Trump vote from 2016 and 2020 and is now ironically overestimating the Trump vote this time around.