USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[Happy Mastenator]

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Were there any numbers for Nevada?

Nevada : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Nevada is as tight as a fish's arse right now.

 

[Satan]

Nevada : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Nevada is as tight as a fish's arse right now.

View attachment 2149582

Godown to hospi workers who get tips

 

[swingdog]

I wonder about the combined polling methods this time.

In theory, they should be better than the straight polls but they're a mix of criteria which may have worked before but are not guaranteed to work again.

There are factors (e.g. historic degrees of polarisation and the profusion of partisan polls) that just haven't been part of the picture before.

We'll see on 5 November, but apart from telling us what we already know (it's close), I'm less convinced of their value.

 

[GreyCrow]

Someone should ask RFK Jnr what he thought about Trump advocating for McDonald's.

You know, the processed shit filled with chemicals that RFK rails against.

Its the seed oils!

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Good post

Good dog.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

What a shameless lying cheat.

 

[Spearman]

lol

Conservative Family ‘Disappointed’ After Moving To Russia To Escape LGBTQ Ideology

Arend and his wife Anneesa Feenstra relocated their family from Canada to Russia to escape perceived LGBT ideology encroachment. However, their dream soured when their bank accounts were reportedly frozen upon arrival. Anneesa vented frustration in a deleted YouTube video, while Arend later...

www.yahoo.com

Imagine the stupidity of people who make the monumentally huge decision to move to another country, a country with a 'history' and not do really any research into what you would be walking into. (mea culpa, I've done it, to a relatively benign nation, stayed for 3+ decades and am still surprised by stuff)

 

[beez]

Its the seed oils!

I know he's a crazy, sex-driven whack job, but he really does have a point about chemicals all around us.

And on the seed oils, he's actually 100% correct. It is the seed oils in all the processed shit we eat that causes us long term damage. Take it out of your diet (whether you cook with it at home or consume packaged foods) and your blood work will improve drastically within a couple of weeks.

 

[Blue1980]

If the Dems lose, I am putting it squarely the fault of them campaigning with Liz Cheney and courting non MAGA republicans.

To me it’s a braindead move straight out of the Biden and his campaign strategists play book.

Maybe it’s a move of genius but I think it will turn people off and just see the Dems as more establishment and gives a lane for Trump and MAGA to show they are anti establishment.

 

[RedStarUncle]

I wonder about the combined polling methods this time.

In theory, they should be better than the straight polls but they're a mix of criteria which may have worked before but are not guaranteed to work again.

There are factors (e.g. historic degrees of polarisation and the profusion of partisan polls) that just haven't been part of the picture before.

We'll see on 5 November, but apart from telling us what we already know (it's close), I'm less convinced of their value.

Their value is as a tool that indicates current opinions. If they're done properly using aggregates, weighting, bias correction, error assessment, etc. then they're a good indicator of a likely result.



Where they fall apart is when we start looking at a 52-48 split for Harris as "predicting a Harris victory" then a 48-52 split as "predicting a Trump victory" without considering that those are basically the same prediction by the poll.

No poll other than an actual election is going to give you a result in a close race. The aggregate polling gives you an indication that a race is likely to be close... so it's done its job.

 

[Spearman]

Gee I have a 'gut feeling' and an 'I wish' statement, glad I didn't voice it by posting.

I still have a problem with the polls. How are people selected, are they verified posters from a party, do they follow up with the same people, age group, occupation, gender, ethnicity?

I believe that the polls haven't taken into account new registrations especially in swing states:

• 18,000 voters in Arizona
• 43,000 voters in Georgia
• 21,000 voters in Michigan
• 28,000 voters in North Carolina
• 37,000 voters in Pennsylvania
• 19,000 voters in Wisconsin
• 8,000 voters in Nevada

41 Million of all voters will be Gen Z.

Also how many republicans will vote for Harris? Judging from the town halls with Harris and Cheney, there seems to be quite a few. One vote is almost two for Democrats, one for them and one the Republicans don't get.

Not sure that the pollsters are capturing all this.

Again, you have to wonder about the older, normal 'life-long' Republicans when they hear that rhetoric. It is on Newsmax, Fox, etal. There must be hundreds of thousands of educated conservative voters who remember the GOP rhetoric against the Soviet Union and China, learned about Hitler and the Nazis. They'd be children of the 1960s and 70s. Is there too much inertia and apathy in them, or do they actually start thinking 'what the hell is this?" I don't know as I'm not back there, but they would be my contemporaries and this stuff was public school information back then.

 

[beez]

If the Dems lose, I am putting it squarely the fault of them campaigning with Liz Cheney and courting non MAGA republicans.

To me it’s a braindead move straight out of the Biden and his campaign strategists play book.

Maybe it’s a move of genius but I think it will turn people off and just see the Dems as more establishment and gives a lane for Trump and MAGA to show they are anti establishment.

There are myriad reasons why the vote goes the way it does. Ascribing any one reason to the result in hindsight is a fool's errand.

I don't particularly like the amount of air time the Harris campaign gives to Cheney, typical Republicans and neocons, but there is certainly a not-insignificant amount of voters that they have been successfully courting.

 

[swingdog]

Their value is as a tool that indicates current opinions. If they're done properly using aggregates, weighting, bias correction, error assessment, etc. then they're a good indicator of a likely result.



Where they fall apart is when we start looking at a 52-48 split for Harris as "predicting a Harris victory" then a 48-52 split as "predicting a Trump victory" without considering that those are basically the same prediction by the poll.

No poll other than an actual election is going to give you a result in a close race. The aggregate polling gives you an indication that a race is likely to be close... so it's done its job.

That's all fine. My quibbles are:

• when they report shifts that occur within the margin of error ("Trump gains!") when it is likely to be statistical noise, and
• framing it as scientific when the eightings and bias correction shifts from race to race.

 

[swingdog]

There are myriad reasons why the vote goes the way it does. Ascribing any one reason to the result in hindsight is a fool's errand.

I don't particularly like the amount of air time the Harris campaign gives to Cheney, typical Republicans and neocons, but there is certainly a not-insignificant amount of voters that they have been successfully courting.

You can understand the strategy.

Trump isn't expanding his base; he's trying to get them all out to vote.
Harris is trying to eat into a traditional Republican base, as well as getting out her base.

She has a higher ceiling, while Trump has a higher floor.

 

[beez]

You can understand the strategy.

Trump isn't expanding his base; he's trying to get them all out to vote.
Harris is trying to eat into a traditional Republican base, as well as getting out her base.

She has a higher ceiling, while Trump has a higher floor.

I really think this is an undersold and underdiscussed narrative since 2016.

Just look at the raw numbers (from both parties) and they've increased dramatically since 2016. One of the ostensible virtues of Trump is that he's engaged politically more of the electorate than ever before. I certainly think doubling down and getting more of the uneducated, MAGA idiots out to vote is a smart political strategy.

Whether it works or not is another thing.

 

[Maggie5]

Haha funny

During the Univision Q&A he was telling a guy who owned a restaurant he was getting rid of gas, all electricity.


tRump is COOKED but in a wood fire stove.

 

[Jello_B]

What a weird timeline we live in where they close a McDonalds so they can do a pretend work day for Donnie just to try and own the Democrats.

Probably worried someone will through a chicken nugget at him.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Imagine the stupidity of people who make the monumentally huge decision to move to another country, a country with a 'history' and not do really any research into what you would be walking into. (mea culpa, I've done it, to a relatively benign nation, stayed for 3+ decades and am still surprised by stuff)

Which is why MAGA is still a thing. Such low info people.

 

[OneGreatClub]

I know he's a crazy, sex-driven whack job, but he really does have a point about chemicals all around us.

And on the seed oils, he's actually 100% correct. It is the seed oils in all the processed shit we eat that causes us long term damage. Take it out of your diet (whether you cook with it at home or consume packaged foods) and your blood work will improve drastically within a couple of weeks.

I have no real issue with his fast food comments, including seed oils but his Vaccine stance is whacky and extremely dangerous. He’s a whack job.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

lol

Conservative Family ‘Disappointed’ After Moving To Russia To Escape LGBTQ Ideology

Arend and his wife Anneesa Feenstra relocated their family from Canada to Russia to escape perceived LGBT ideology encroachment. However, their dream soured when their bank accounts were reportedly frozen upon arrival. Anneesa vented frustration in a deleted YouTube video, while Arend later...

www.yahoo.com

FMD. Not sure whether to laugh or cry.

 

[swingdog]

FMD. Not sure whether to laugh or cry.

Laugh, definitely laugh.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

View attachment 2149547

I wonder if the dumb campaigner ever has a genuinely happy day when he doesn't hang shit or insult anyone?

 

[beez]

I'm not the biggest fan of The Bulwark people given how much credit they seem to want to take for Biden in 2020, but I do like Tim Miller and his mea culpa after his Republican days.

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trumps-tech-bro-fanboys-wanted-him

ONE OF THE MOST NOTABLE TRENDS in the 2024 cycle has been the emergence of a cadre of prominent Silicon Valley donors who have gone full MAGA.

The most prominent of them is Elon Musk, who cemented his position as a Donald Trump fanboy with a viral leap at the rally in Butler, Pennsylvania this weekend. But the most influential of the MAGA Tech Set has been two hosts of the All-In podcast: long-time Republican David Sacks and Trumpy convert Chamath Palihapitiya. They are joined on the podcast by Jason Calacanis (who has become Trump-curious) and token Democrat David Friedberg. In addition to their roles as podcast and social media advocates for Trump, Palihapitiya and Sacks co-hosted a mega-fundraiser for the candidate back in June.

All of this Trump-humping from a bunch of VC guys, three of whom had been mainstream Democrats not too long ago, made us wonder: When did they become MAGA converts? More specifically, what did they think of Trump after his darkest, most horrifying moment: January 6th?

The answer is that their disgust was palpable, maybe even more radical than what we were publishing here at The Bulwark, online home of Trump Derangement Syndrome.

Here are a few of my favorite quotes:

David Sacks:
​

• “I think he’s disqualified himself from being a candidate at a national level.”
• “I think, if you wanna see this mob as a gun, I think he loaded the gun. He pointed it in a certain direction.”

Chamath Palihapitiya:
​

• “I would rather take every single person arrested and give them zero days in jail and add it all up and give it to Trump.”
• “He is a complete piece-of-shit ****ing scumbag.”

Jason Calacanis:
​

• “He’s a maniac. I mean, this is insane, deranged, criminal, lunatic behavior.”
• On invoking the Twenty-fifth Amendment: “I think it’s the right thing to do.”

 

[GreyCrow]

I'm not the biggest fan of The Bulwark people given how much credit they seem to want to take for Biden in 2020, but I do like Tim Miller and his mea culpa after his Republican days.

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trumps-tech-bro-fanboys-wanted-him

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