USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[adogsfan5]

So the betting market is based on overseas bookmakers?
Confusing.

Can imagine that Sportsbet or TAB would base their odds on bets that are placed, polling, news etc.

 

[jatz14]

With everything that’s happened since 2016, despite what a lot of polls are saying, I’ll be genuinely shocked if Americans vote DonOld back in. The bloke couldn’t have done more to show how unfit he is for office, from mismanagement of COVID-19 to January 6 (which alone should be disqualifying) and so much other crazy shit that it’s hard to keep track of, not to forget he’s 78 years old already and obviously on the decline. Biden has helped steer the US economy to a soft landing out of the pandemic. What else does it take?
If he gets back in, it will show Americans to have the memory of a goldfish and they’ll then get everything they deserve. He won’t give up power again.

A fear that has been expressed by some on the right is, the viriol directed at conservatives that don't support Trump has become so great, that people, when questioned, just automatically say they support and will vote for Trump. It's just easier and safer to say that.

But they have no real intention of doing so. They say they are going to, and afterwards they will say they did, but they won't.

If Dems were saying this I would put it down to wishful thinking.

On a slightly related note. Because Trump has sucked the GOP house dry, they outsourced their get out th vote campaign, so now, instead of conservative volunteers doing the door knocking, it's people paid by a company.

And they get paid per door.

In capatilism as it works in the textbooks, this means lots of incentivised busy beavers visiting as many houses as possible.

Real world capitalism, it means lots of busy beavers faking visiting lots of houses, when they didn't.

Not sure how much real world affect it has, but it shows again, the GOP let him in, and now he is hollowing them.out from inside, just like he will the country.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

I hate Trump, but what's worse? China gets away with Taiwan and is emboldened, or Australia goes to war with a nuclear superpower in our region?

Why not both?

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[OneGreatClub]

Do remember m8 that the real world is very different to online political discussions. There are many swing voters, many who are politically apathetic, many who lean one way but don't bother voting when it's not compulsory etc. It's not all a rusted-on tribalistic crapfight out there as it is here.

Suffice to say that a long-form discussion on the world's most popular podcast will have some impact either way on voter motivation. And sure as night follows day, posters here will spend days spamming short clips from X showing any perceived weakness from Trump on the show... ironically supporting the platform owned by the bloke who Walz referred to as "Trump's actual VP"... buying twitter was a very Sun Tzu move by Elon indeed.

Would you like Trump to win, and more importantly why?

 

[Mick F]

81 million Americans voted for Biden in 2020. 74 million voted for Trump. Those are massive numbers of people. Combined, even allowing for their non-compulsory voting, that’s 6 times the entire population of Australia.

Most of us have at best a circle of acquaintance of a few hundred people. Most of us on here know a handful of Americans at best.

I think it’s worth remembering no-one, including BF posters, really has any idea of what motivation goes on in the minds of 155 million people.

The best and brightest, like David Axelrod, would. Lewandowski less so.

 

[GreyCrow]

And they get paid per door.

In capatilism as it works in the textbooks, this means lots of incentivised busy beavers visiting as many houses as possible.

Real world capitalism, it means lots of busy beavers faking visiting lots of houses, when they didn't.

Freakonomics 101

 

[Rotayjay]

Why not both?

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

I don't see both happening. Either China takes Taiwan without going to war with any third country, effectively 'getting away with it', or the US steps in and Australia follows, and an absolutely devastating war ensues.

Whether China wins Taiwan in that war is not the important thing, frankly. A world where the US, China and Australia went to war is a very different world to the one we inhabit.

 

[iDon]

Can imagine that Sportsbet or TAB would base their odds on bets that are placed, polling, news etc.

There odds are dictated by the trading platforms (betfair, polymarket) etc.

 

[QuietB]

I don't see both happening. Either China takes Taiwan without going to war with any third country, effectively 'getting away with it', or the US steps in and Australia follows, and an absolutely devastating war ensues.

Whether China wins Taiwan in that war is not the important thing, frankly. A world where the US, China and Australia went to war is a very different world to the one we inhabit.

How the hell does China take Taiwan? Israel cannot defeat Hamas.

China could maybe destroy Taiwan like Israel has destroyed Gaza. But what is the point of that?

 

[OneGreatClub]

How the hell does China take Taiwan? Israel cannot defeat Hamas.

China could maybe destroy Taiwan like Israel has destroyed Gaza. But what is the point of that?

One upmanship?

 

[OneGreatClub]

He’s right of course…

 

[adelaidecrows]

He’s right of course…

All the voting maths works in the democrats favour. He would have to defy all logic and history to win enough votes after alienating a 3rd of the republican party. Democrats will come out en masse to vote like last time. As I have said numerous times, its one thing to troll and gaslight democrats with pro Trump propaganda for a laugh and even say you will vote Trump in the election, but its on a whole nother level to go find a voting booth, stand in line and then tick his box. This is where the Trump campaign will be a failure for the whole world to see.

 

[adelaidecrows]

I don't see both happening. Either China takes Taiwan without going to war with any third country, effectively 'getting away with it', or the US steps in and Australia follows, and an absolutely devastating war ensues.

Whether China wins Taiwan in that war is not the important thing, frankly. A world where the US, China and Australia went to war is a very different world to the one we inhabit.

The financial impacts on any country looking to fight a major war would be well into the trillions which means the chances of any country chasing a world war is very slim. Governments simply dont have the money.

 

[Satan]

The financial impacts on any country looking to fight a major war would be well into the trillions which means the chances of any country chasing a world war is very slim. Governments simply dont have the money.

Victorian taxpayers do

 

[adelaidecrows]

Victorian taxpayers do

Trillions of dollars? lol

 

[Blue1980]

Certainly stalled when they went hard with the Cheneys. And they're now going even harder - Liz Cheney is hitting swing states daily at the moment.

It's almost like they're trying to lose.

Its got Biden and his staffers fingerprints all over it. They love neo-con republicans and think we can all get back to the "good old days" pre 2016, which weren't actually that good which left the door open for a Trump.

I ****ing hate these centrist civility libs, I think the truth is they prefer a Trump win than do anything genuinely progressive.

Maybe this whole dance is just delaying the inevitable, the dems governing as far right as they can get away with and narrowly trying to beat some psychotic fascists every 4 years.

 

[Cyber_punk]

Its got Biden and his staffers fingerprints all over it. They love neo-con republicans and think we can all get back to the "good old days" pre 2016, which weren't actually that good which left the door open for a Trump.

I ****ing hate these centrist civility libs, I think the truth is they prefer a Trump win than do anything genuinely progressive.

Absolutely.

I think they'd prefer Trump if it was Sanders vs Trump.