Come on, Tim couldn't still be claiming to be left leaning could he?
Surely he's at least 1 of those "why I left the left" guys now, just so he can get through a spiel without cracking up if nothing else!?
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USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)
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Surely he's at least 1 of those "why I left the left" guys now, just so he can get through a spiel without cracking up if nothing else!?
- Nov 6, 2014
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That pos Trump wanted to create chaos and he sure is succeeding
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If that country had any civic pride, he would would have been ushered off the stage long ago. And that's being nice.
He deserves a lot worse.
The fact he's in a coin flip race is an indication it's a failed state.
He deserves a lot worse.
The fact he's in a coin flip race is an indication it's a failed state.
i think this election is a bit different and the reason I'm not really trusting the polling. Trump has lost a bunch of voters who he had in 16 and even in 20, so he has hitched his wagons to low propensity voters to make up the gap. without getting some of these on board he cannot get the votes to win. the issue for him is that these people are more likely than not to not show up to vote. so the polling may well be saying its tied or he's ahead even, but there's no way of knowing is these people will show on election day, in fact the odds/history tell us a majority of them are likely not to. the voters Harris requires to win on the other hand (women, disillusioned/Trump hating Republicans/independent voters) are far more likely to be motivated enough to go out and vote.
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zumahawk
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That comment coming from an adult is hilarious. Trump isn't taking the election seriously surely FK?
Come on, Tim couldn't still be claiming to be left leaning could he?
Surely he's at least 1 of those "why I left the left" guys now, just so he can get through a spiel without cracking up if nothing else!?
Well he claimed in a debate with Emma from majority report that he was “too the left of her” on foreign policy, cos he was opposed to US helping in Ukraine (which now seems dodgier that it seemed even then him saying that).
However when Emma mentioned US fund Israel he was all “oh I don’t know enough about that to have an opinion on it”.
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I doubt that interview would have changed any minds in Trump’s favour.
Looks like Trump is warm favourite with the bookies now.
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Old news
Osho
32 days. 32 Days! 32 DAYS!!
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ROAR! Seems you're headed for semi-disappointment!
Maggie5
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Came across this article (did a media bias check on them).
Overall, we rate Brooking Institution Left-Center biased based on donations to primarily Democratic candidates and policy advocacy that slightly favors the left. We also rate them Very High for factual reporting due to strong sourcing and a clean fact check record.
Not sure enough has been reported on the gender gap and most polls I have seen don't go that deep on who was polled.
This year’s election puts the gender gap front and center for three reasons—one of the candidates could be the first woman president of the United States; the abortion issue has especially high salience for women and could increase their already high turnout; and the election in swing states is incredibly close.
The closeness of the election has created a daily torrent of speculation about which subgroups are leaning to which candidate.
In the last presidential election, women accounted for 54.7% of the electorate and men accounted for 44%. And of course, there are simply more adult women than men in the population, especially among the elderly.2 In the seven swing states we looked at for this analysis, women composed a larger share of the electorate in 2020 than men, with one exception, Wisconsin, where, according to exit polls, 50% were men and 50% were women.
Pennsylvania. In a recent Marist poll, women supported Harris by 55% to 43% for Trump, while men supported Harris by 44% and Trump by 54%. In the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania, women accounted for more votes than men—they were 53% of the electorate, and men were 47%. There were a total of 6,915,283 ballots cast in Pennsylvania in 2020, most of which were cast by women, amounting to 3,665,100 votes.
In North Carolina, Harris is currently getting 54% of the women’s vote, and Trump is getting the exact same percentage (54%) of the men’s vote. If men and women voted in the same numbers, these votes would cancel each other out.
Michigan, where the presidential gender gap and the turnout gender gap is large, the results can be impressive. In Michigan, a Marist poll finds 56% of the women currently favor Harris and 52% of men currently favor Trump.
In Wisconsin, (according to a Marist poll) women currently favor Harris by 56%, and men favor Trump by 53%.
In Nevada, 53% of women currently favor Harris and 52% of men currently favor Trump, according to a poll by Emerson.
Georgia and Arizona are the only swing states where the 2024 gender gap in presidential preference favors Trump, and in both states, the gender gap in turnout is not large enough to help Harris. In Georgia, a CBS poll found there seem to be more men planning to vote for Trump (56%) than women voting for Harris (53%).
This exercise shows that if the composition of the electorate between men and women remains the same as it was in 2020, Harris could win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada—all states Biden won in 2020. She could also win North Carolina (which Biden lost in 2020) but by a very narrow margin. Trump would win Arizona and Georgia, two states Biden won in 2020. This would result in a Harris win in the Electoral College.
Of course, the assumptions in this analysis could easily change next month. The abortion referendum in Arizona, for instance, has the potential to boost the women’s vote past what it was in 2020, and that could be good for Harris. What will not change is that the importance of the gender gap in presidential preference is highly dependent on the existence of a gender gap in turnout. The reality of both gender gaps has hit the Republican Party hard; candidates across the board are scrambling to soften or even repeal their former statements on abortion
Overall, we rate Brooking Institution Left-Center biased based on donations to primarily Democratic candidates and policy advocacy that slightly favors the left. We also rate them Very High for factual reporting due to strong sourcing and a clean fact check record.
Not sure enough has been reported on the gender gap and most polls I have seen don't go that deep on who was polled.
This year’s election puts the gender gap front and center for three reasons—one of the candidates could be the first woman president of the United States; the abortion issue has especially high salience for women and could increase their already high turnout; and the election in swing states is incredibly close.
The closeness of the election has created a daily torrent of speculation about which subgroups are leaning to which candidate.
In the last presidential election, women accounted for 54.7% of the electorate and men accounted for 44%. And of course, there are simply more adult women than men in the population, especially among the elderly.2 In the seven swing states we looked at for this analysis, women composed a larger share of the electorate in 2020 than men, with one exception, Wisconsin, where, according to exit polls, 50% were men and 50% were women.
Pennsylvania. In a recent Marist poll, women supported Harris by 55% to 43% for Trump, while men supported Harris by 44% and Trump by 54%. In the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania, women accounted for more votes than men—they were 53% of the electorate, and men were 47%. There were a total of 6,915,283 ballots cast in Pennsylvania in 2020, most of which were cast by women, amounting to 3,665,100 votes.
In North Carolina, Harris is currently getting 54% of the women’s vote, and Trump is getting the exact same percentage (54%) of the men’s vote. If men and women voted in the same numbers, these votes would cancel each other out.
Michigan, where the presidential gender gap and the turnout gender gap is large, the results can be impressive. In Michigan, a Marist poll finds 56% of the women currently favor Harris and 52% of men currently favor Trump.
In Wisconsin, (according to a Marist poll) women currently favor Harris by 56%, and men favor Trump by 53%.
In Nevada, 53% of women currently favor Harris and 52% of men currently favor Trump, according to a poll by Emerson.
Georgia and Arizona are the only swing states where the 2024 gender gap in presidential preference favors Trump, and in both states, the gender gap in turnout is not large enough to help Harris. In Georgia, a CBS poll found there seem to be more men planning to vote for Trump (56%) than women voting for Harris (53%).
This exercise shows that if the composition of the electorate between men and women remains the same as it was in 2020, Harris could win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada—all states Biden won in 2020. She could also win North Carolina (which Biden lost in 2020) but by a very narrow margin. Trump would win Arizona and Georgia, two states Biden won in 2020. This would result in a Harris win in the Electoral College.
Of course, the assumptions in this analysis could easily change next month. The abortion referendum in Arizona, for instance, has the potential to boost the women’s vote past what it was in 2020, and that could be good for Harris. What will not change is that the importance of the gender gap in presidential preference is highly dependent on the existence of a gender gap in turnout. The reality of both gender gaps has hit the Republican Party hard; candidates across the board are scrambling to soften or even repeal their former statements on abortion
NSWCROW
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Was that before or after he offered her a tour, sushi and poker with 'da boysch ??
blackshadow
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They didn’t show because they require money upfront for appearance fees and Trump refused to say.
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Spineless.
blackshadow
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He can't. Similarly, you and also any economist will not be able to explain why it will increase inflation.
Trump's proposing replacing income tax with tariffs, that alone impacts millions of variables and their interactions.
Increased tariffs --> cost passed on to consumers is an unrealistic reductionist NPC way of thinking.
Economists are the astrologists of finance. Put simply, if they had even a 1% edge in their predictions and forecasts, they would clean out every market. I don't recommend putting any stock on what they say. If you back tested their predictions prior to every market cycle, you'd find they are always wrong.
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Economists have a 100% accuracy in predictions after the event.
Ultimately - their value is not on what will happen but highlighting the lessons of days gone past (and why tariffs are a relic to a forgotten time).
Anyone taking future advice on specific real world issues should just dump their hard earned into the sewer.
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