USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[_Cerberus_]

A good day for polling for Harris in national polls, +2 and edging back out to +4. A bit of a surprise really this late in the campaign. Early voting has moved back in favor of the Democrats in Nevada, and Pennsylvania margin is slowly pushing out to 2020 levels. I am a bit nervous about Michigan. But Trump literally mocked Michigan, especially Detroit at his recent visit. Will be interesting how that goes down with the voters.

 

[_Cerberus_]

I am amazed at how many are posting and sharing the polymarket odds, which is dominated by crypto bros.Which had it odds blown out thanks to mega cash donations, pushing well over 70 million. Including from billionaire figure Peter Thiel, who probably has his hands on Project 2025.

As its proof that Trump is the red hot favorite, and its going to be a smashing.

Like are Americans really dumb as f**k that they cannot tell the difference between manipulated betting odds, and genuine polls?

Go read all the comments on X any time a page or person shares a post with Polymarket odds. Many genuinely think its a poll.

 

[OneGreatClub]

A good day for polling for Harris in national polls, +2 and edging back out to +4. A bit of a surprise really this late in the campaign. Early voting has moved back in favor of the Democrats in Nevada, and Pennsylvania margin is slowly pushing out to 2020 levels. I am a bit nervous about Michigan. But Trump literally mocked Michigan, especially Detroit at his recent visit. Will be interesting how that goes down with the voters.

I still think there will be a pleasant surprise when votes are counted

 

[beez]

I am amazed at how many are posting and sharing the polymarket odds, which is dominated by crypto bros.Which had it odds blown out thanks to mega cash donations, pushing well over 70 million. Including from billionaire figure Peter Thiel, who probably has his hands on Project 2025.

As its proof that Trump is the red hot favorite, and its going to be a smashing.

Like are Americans really dumb as f**k that they cannot tell the difference between manipulated betting odds, and genuine polls?

Go read all the comments on X any time a page or person shares a post with Polymarket odds. Many genuinely think its a poll.

If the markets are so manipulated why isn't Trump favoured to win the popular vote too?

Polls suggest, even if you account for alleged flooding of right-wing outlets, that Harris will probably win the popular vote but Trump has a slight edge in the Electoral College due to the nature of swing states at this current time.

The betting odds generally reflect the moving polling averages, and it has always been the case even before the advent of Polymarket.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Keeping the riff raff out
Candace Owens banned from Australia

 

[OneGreatClub]

If the markets are so manipulated why isn't Trump favoured to win the popular vote too?

Polls suggest, even if you account for alleged flooding of right-wing outlets, that Harris will probably win the popular vote but Trump has a slight edge in the Electoral College due to the nature of swing states at this current time.

The betting odds generally reflect the moving polling averages, and it has always been the case even before the advent of Polymarket.

Surely more males bet. Females don’t. That would affect the odds too.

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[beez]

Surely more males bet. Females don’t. That would affect the odds too.

A team with more supporters than its opposition does not automatically go in as favourites nor necessarily implies they are going to have more money bet on them to win.

I think you can make the case that across all betting markets more Trump-supporting young men would be betting on them, but that does not necessarily suggest nor imply that the markets are manipulated or askew because of the Trump vote.

But markets are wrong all the time. It would not surprise me in the slightest if Harris wins comfortably. Nor would it would it surprise me if Trump does.

I have nfi what it going to happen.

 

[Randomizor]

Polls are being used to create this fiction that the election is a race. It's not a race where you accumulate points or beat the clock. It's only a prediction like a weather report. There is no "taking the lead" between a rainy day and a sunny one.