USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[100action]

betting money has blown out again for Harris and come in a touch for Trump

must have been a bit of money put on Trump today.

Harris at $2.30 is great value for the punters

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trump's billionaires rigging the vote no doubt

kamala's rallies have been energetic and are drawing crowds lately

I have seen 8 different pollster opinions and each time I change my mind I'm picking Trump based off AtlasIntel who most accurate of 2020.

AtlasIntel doesn't seem like solid info tbh, they are outside the zone of acceptability which i've marked in red below.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Nate Silver has Trump winning. It crazy to be think anyone will win with any certainty all guessing now
Should listen to these guys as I've posted most accurate predictions in last election.

If you click your heels together and post AtlasIntel 3 times, Kamala will win Kansas.

 

[Blue1980]

My point is both are controlled by donors and serve them not the people who vote for them so they not really going to be that different

That part is relatively equal, need to get donor money out of politics. But then you add in deporting 11 million illegal immigrants, overturing roe v wade and the whole fascisty anti-democratic stuff only one side is proposing, the difference becomes stark.

 

[Strange Cat]

If you click your heels together and post AtlasIntel 3 times, Kamala will win Kansas.

I’d rather the house just falls on Trump with his orange slippers on

 

[Satan]

That part is relatively equal, need to get donor money out of politics. But then you add in deporting 11 million illegal immigrants, overturing roe v wade and the whole fascisty anti-democratic stuff only one side is proposing, the difference becomes stark.

And having rfk jr and musk and other toadies in his government

 

[Blue1980]

And having rfk jr and musk and other toadies in his government

The list goes on and on, but they are objectively also terrible things.

 

[zumahawk]

Silver called it 'a complete toss up'.

Unfortunately it's too close to call, the sex pest, convicted felon could very well snatch PA and win it.

Harris apparently an 8% lead according to an article I just read for those who have voted. Promising.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Nate Silver has Trump winning. It crazy to be think anyone will win with any certainty all guessing now
Should listen to these guys as I've posted most accurate predictions in last election.

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election?

Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast. It will always contain the most recent data from the model.1

The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast2 and the methodology is largely the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020. Other changes from 2020 are documented here. And an archive of the Biden-Trump forecast can be found here.

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[FireKrakouer]

We need Blackcat

Where the OG good faith interlocutors at?

claps twice
blackcat what say you on current proceedings m8?

#meds
#churf

 

[Tadpole]

I’d rather the house just falls on Trump with his orange slippers on

Wonder how Donny would look in heels.

 

[Chadwiko]

Nate Silver has Trump winning.

Not as of today;

 

[Mick F]

I know it sets out what I want to hear but the arguments presented are logical , compelling and make sense.

James Carville ( who I rate) has predicted a landslide , I think enough of the electorate are over Trump and his antics - the recent MSG rally , his personal attacks on Harris and Puerto Rico might have sunk him...................

Harris being a ‘woman of colour’ is what is problematical.

Trump’s team is confident that the male gender gap gives bim the edge. Young men, who feel they’ve been left behind, that the US has gone too far promoting gender equality, think “A powerful woman? No, a bridge too far”.

 

[OneGreatClub]

People are taking this way too seriously though Trump and Harris being President won't be end of the world. In reality they both have similar positions on foreign policy and economic issues just social issues. Trump just a stand up comic and troll while Harris is a stock standard politician.

um…no

 

[pjcrows]

Nate Silver has Trump winning. It crazy to be think anyone will win with any certainty all guessing now
Should listen to these guys as I've posted most accurate predictions in last election.

I think he's flipped to Harris, but it's a complete toss up.

 

[Strange Cat]

Wonder how Donny would look in heels.

View attachment 2158069

He can always ask his other BFF for some help in heels….the one that is still alive ..:barely

 

[Chadwiko]

 

[zumahawk]

I look forward to not reading and analysing a poll for 4 years after this week p.s. polls are holding for Harris.

 

[Financialpanther]

North Carolina will be interesting - given the wait that will be had for Penn (some 3-4 days if its close), NC will be an early result that will tell if the race remains close or a quick death.

 

[Satan]

Iowa doesnt get mention , dont know if means much

 

[zumahawk]

That's the question isn't it. Will the youth vote Harris or Trump. I'd hazard a guess that most youth will go blue.

 

[Chadwiko]

Iowa doesnt get mention , dont know if means much

The poll was conducted before the Selzer poll made people believe Iowa might be a swing state. So they didn't poll Iowa.

 

[Satan]

The poll was conducted before the Selzer poll made people believe Iowa might be a swing state. So they didn't poll Iowa.

Did they ignore or forget about them

 

[Financialpanther]

Did they ignore or forget about them

Iowa is a furphy I reckon - it’s more about the sizeable reduction in the trump lead (he’ll still win that state)

 

[Satan]

Iowa is a furphy I reckon - it’s more about the sizeable reduction in the trump lead (he’ll still win that state)

He plays for the pacers