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USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)
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I went to check what Kamahl was up to, hmmm https://www.theguardian.com/austral...arged-stalking-intimidating-38-year-old-woman
GreyCrow
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They do need to - but wont because it means more people vote - understand that the voting paradigm has shifted to early voting. Its here and its going to be bigger
More polling centres and more democracy sausages
I hope the dems have war gamed every possibility, I don't want a situation where the republicans have played funny buggers and Biden being the sucker for democratic norms and civility goes "oh well we tried, enjoy the fascism!"
JB1975
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What on this wretched earth is wrong with you? Do you go to birthday parties and congratulate people on inching closer to death?
And it appears that you have no sense of drama. The barely contained chaos of the US presidential election is one of humankind's greatest achievements, but apparently we should be just as excited by the prospect of Anthony Albanese telling us for the 879th time that his single Mum was a struggler in public housing. Fan-f***ing-tastic!
A more direct impact in our lives? Mate, I couldn't give a f*** if Dutton proposes a nuclear power plant next to the Opera House. They might grant me a $5000 tax cut, and wouldn't everyone love to read about how those dollars will help to renovate the upstairs bathroom.
The size of Arnold Palmer's appendage is far more interesting.
Have you occasioned to notice that the US is a bit of a 'big deal'? Do you think it's because of J-Lo? That's only part of the magic, my dour friend. If the leader of the US Entertainment Complex decides to weaponise tariffs, then I think it might have some ramifications for all of us, including my reno.
The victory of one candidate or the other also has some implications for war and peace. The fate of nations and people's lives beyond your own neighbourhood watch precinct might not be relevant to you, but others feel more attached to other parts of the world and the portions of humanity contained therein.
And have you reckoned with democracy of late? It's f***ed. The US election speaks to this condition, and may worsen it. That feels more relevant to me than Albo's sly flight upgrades or Dutton resting on Gina Rinehart's knee.
Time for you to wake up and smell the putrid garbage that is US politics. Whether you like it or not, it matters.
Interesting 60 Minutes piece, meant to be a soothing balm against conspiracies.
Some good points by the election consultant and volunteers election workers. The GA guy, Stirling in earnest and I respected his stance in 2020. But I'd like to ask him, if everything is so safe (as most sane people and experts have said) Why TF did GA have to make the changes to their process that heavily favors the GOP and election deniers?
Other than that I hope the hillbilly and white trash Fox viewers watch it.
Some good points by the election consultant and volunteers election workers. The GA guy, Stirling in earnest and I respected his stance in 2020. But I'd like to ask him, if everything is so safe (as most sane people and experts have said) Why TF did GA have to make the changes to their process that heavily favors the GOP and election deniers?
Other than that I hope the hillbilly and white trash Fox viewers watch it.
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Hope they didnt edit anything
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ive spent the last 10 days in GA, SC, PA, and NY. Im tipping Harris will win quite easily. the women will come out and vote this geriatric old buffoon out once and for all.
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I mean .. there is an entire sub forum.
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I agree mate. Women will bury trump once and for all.
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The whole world is watching this election. The result does have a big effect on Australia in regards to tariffs, defence , climate change and the world economy.
It's almost like a race that will stop a nation.
If Warp Speed gets up look out.
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Is it from word of mouth or the vibe?
definitely the vibe
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Putting everything else aside, America would be in a better place if Harris won for the simple fact it would show campaigning doesn’t need to start a whole 2 ****ing years before the election.
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Yep, if there's been one overriding lesson from this election, it's that American democracy isn't very good democracy.
And if we weren't already, we should be now very dubious whenever American talks about bringing democracy to any other country when they can't even properly bring it to their own nation.
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Again I have to ask, how is this complete goose even in contention for president of the United States of America?
Secretaries of State (Returning Officers) look at 45-50% early voting. A third first week, two thirds second week. 10% postal.
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I thought Van’s thought-out-loud that maybe he doesn’t want to be elected was on point. If he didn’t have multiple law suits hanging over him that will only go away if he’s re-elected, I’d start to believe it.When the clean up needs a clean up
Warning nfsw
I’ve also wondered at times whether the Trump campaign is just one big social experiment. How gross and violent can our language be? How open can we be that our policies will mess up large segments of the population, especially those who make up a big part of “the base”? How far can we go and yet have nearly half the population vote for him?
It’s mind boggling how strong his support remains.
So the election is tomorrow! Time for everyone’s thoughts and predictions! (could be good to have a thread specifically for these as these will all be buried in a few minutes lol)
Anecdotally:
This is my third election in the US. I have basically only been here for the Trump era, and I am
in a republican leaning area of NYC so my snapshot is admittedly small.
But this election is notably lower key than the other two. 2016 was peak; there were multiple businesses around us flying Trump flags, lock her up, etc. 2020 was more muted, with far less open Trump support, but there was still a noticeable presence. This year, there is barely anything; there are of course a couple of Trump flags and signs in lawns around us, but I reckon I have seen more cybertrucks around than openly Trump houses. And conversations about the election are noticeably shorter and less passionate this time around.
If it wasn’t for the overwhelming early voting numbers, I would say I would be shocked if the number of votes exceeds 2020. I am not sure if its because early voting has more awareness/more accessible, so we are seeing an uptick of voters who would generally skip Tuesday, or if its because my area is its own bubble and the rest of the country is just as crazy as the media make it out to be.
The only factor which I have seen, that I have not heard anything talking about, is a likely change in the Jewish vote. A number of Jewish people I know, who were actually pretty liberal, have really felt the left in general turn against them since October 7th. There definitely seems a trend towards the middle if not all the way to Trump. However, the only place this is likely to make a potential mark is in Pennsylvania (or Florida if the Puerto Ricans actually do swarm for Harris).
The strategies:
Both parties have had an unconventional approach to this election, which could go a way to explaining why energy seems down but voting numbers are up. Whoever wins is going to look like geniuses, while the losers will look like idiots. Regardless of the merits in either strategy.
Democrats - have targeted republicans. The Republican party is mostly a cult now, and as you would expect, there are a small number of people who get isolated when they don’t drink the kool-aid. The democrats are hoping to sway them to vote blue rather than sit this one out. We are only talking about a few percent of people here, unfortunately, but in swing states that will be enough to get them over the line. The danger has been, will this cost them the vote of young leftists? The greens imploding into a confusing mess of far right ideals has certainly helped them here. I do see that last night, Kamala took a more solid pro-Palestinian position, which the cynic in me thinks was calculated to this strategy - lock up older republicans in the prepolling, and then pivot to their leftist base for on the day voting.
Republicans - They have gone after young men, primarily white but they are apparently doing surprisingly well with minorities here too. Think gamers, incels, Tater tots, frat boys, Crypto bros, etc. Basically anyone who watches Joe Rogan to exercise their mind. These people do lean republican, but are a low voting demographic, so if they do actually turn up, then that's a few more % that could get them over the line in the states that matter. This also explains the weird Squirrel thing; it means nothing to anyone except this demographic.
In short, while unconventional, Republicans are trying to energize their base while the Dems are trying to broaden theirs.
The Key:
Obviously Pennsylvania. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she wins the election. There isn’t a realistic outcome where Pennsylvania goes blue and Trump wins. If he doesn’t get Penn, he’s not getting Wisconsin or Michigan.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania though, then it isn’t over but he is definitely in the box seat. Harris would need to win one of North Carolina, Georgia or Florida, all states they would be underdogs in (it would take a shock to win Florida), as well as hold on to the rest of the midwest. If Pennsylvania is actually called on the night to Trump, then this probably means he will flip at least one of WI or MI too, and win the election.
Polls:
I think its likely that the polls are skewing too far to Trump, because they are all trying to ensure they don’t underestimate his vote. I believe they are also likely to be counting non voting Trump supporters, while simultaneously they may be undercounting likely Harris voters, who are mostly energized to vote for abortion rights. (the latter, however, may be limited to ruby red states where this is an active issue, so may not have a big bearing on results).
There may also be an effect of people saying out loud they will vote Trump, when they will not. (the Dems likely have data for them to specifically and bizzarley encouraged wives to vote Harris and not tell their husbands, and Republicans also looked a bit worried when they pushed back on this). These are just hunches though. I could be way off. We will see I guess.
My Pediction:
Harris will win a relatively close one. It might look touch and go on the night, but it will be similar to Biden’s where once the dust settles, they could afford to lose a state or two in the shenanigans that follow, and still win. There might be some surprises in her favour, like Iowa and NC. I think Georgia will go red, but it hopefully won’t matter.
Anecdotally:
This is my third election in the US. I have basically only been here for the Trump era, and I am
in a republican leaning area of NYC so my snapshot is admittedly small.
But this election is notably lower key than the other two. 2016 was peak; there were multiple businesses around us flying Trump flags, lock her up, etc. 2020 was more muted, with far less open Trump support, but there was still a noticeable presence. This year, there is barely anything; there are of course a couple of Trump flags and signs in lawns around us, but I reckon I have seen more cybertrucks around than openly Trump houses. And conversations about the election are noticeably shorter and less passionate this time around.
If it wasn’t for the overwhelming early voting numbers, I would say I would be shocked if the number of votes exceeds 2020. I am not sure if its because early voting has more awareness/more accessible, so we are seeing an uptick of voters who would generally skip Tuesday, or if its because my area is its own bubble and the rest of the country is just as crazy as the media make it out to be.
The only factor which I have seen, that I have not heard anything talking about, is a likely change in the Jewish vote. A number of Jewish people I know, who were actually pretty liberal, have really felt the left in general turn against them since October 7th. There definitely seems a trend towards the middle if not all the way to Trump. However, the only place this is likely to make a potential mark is in Pennsylvania (or Florida if the Puerto Ricans actually do swarm for Harris).
The strategies:
Both parties have had an unconventional approach to this election, which could go a way to explaining why energy seems down but voting numbers are up. Whoever wins is going to look like geniuses, while the losers will look like idiots. Regardless of the merits in either strategy.
Democrats - have targeted republicans. The Republican party is mostly a cult now, and as you would expect, there are a small number of people who get isolated when they don’t drink the kool-aid. The democrats are hoping to sway them to vote blue rather than sit this one out. We are only talking about a few percent of people here, unfortunately, but in swing states that will be enough to get them over the line. The danger has been, will this cost them the vote of young leftists? The greens imploding into a confusing mess of far right ideals has certainly helped them here. I do see that last night, Kamala took a more solid pro-Palestinian position, which the cynic in me thinks was calculated to this strategy - lock up older republicans in the prepolling, and then pivot to their leftist base for on the day voting.
Republicans - They have gone after young men, primarily white but they are apparently doing surprisingly well with minorities here too. Think gamers, incels, Tater tots, frat boys, Crypto bros, etc. Basically anyone who watches Joe Rogan to exercise their mind. These people do lean republican, but are a low voting demographic, so if they do actually turn up, then that's a few more % that could get them over the line in the states that matter. This also explains the weird Squirrel thing; it means nothing to anyone except this demographic.
In short, while unconventional, Republicans are trying to energize their base while the Dems are trying to broaden theirs.
The Key:
Obviously Pennsylvania. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she wins the election. There isn’t a realistic outcome where Pennsylvania goes blue and Trump wins. If he doesn’t get Penn, he’s not getting Wisconsin or Michigan.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania though, then it isn’t over but he is definitely in the box seat. Harris would need to win one of North Carolina, Georgia or Florida, all states they would be underdogs in (it would take a shock to win Florida), as well as hold on to the rest of the midwest. If Pennsylvania is actually called on the night to Trump, then this probably means he will flip at least one of WI or MI too, and win the election.
Polls:
I think its likely that the polls are skewing too far to Trump, because they are all trying to ensure they don’t underestimate his vote. I believe they are also likely to be counting non voting Trump supporters, while simultaneously they may be undercounting likely Harris voters, who are mostly energized to vote for abortion rights. (the latter, however, may be limited to ruby red states where this is an active issue, so may not have a big bearing on results).
There may also be an effect of people saying out loud they will vote Trump, when they will not. (the Dems likely have data for them to specifically and bizzarley encouraged wives to vote Harris and not tell their husbands, and Republicans also looked a bit worried when they pushed back on this). These are just hunches though. I could be way off. We will see I guess.
My Pediction:
Harris will win a relatively close one. It might look touch and go on the night, but it will be similar to Biden’s where once the dust settles, they could afford to lose a state or two in the shenanigans that follow, and still win. There might be some surprises in her favour, like Iowa and NC. I think Georgia will go red, but it hopefully won’t matter.
Sqotty from office works
Norm Smith Medallist
Hoping for a Michael Kroger moment when asked on live television at 6.30 on election night.
IT'S OVER. Closed his briefcase and went home.
IT'S OVER. Closed his briefcase and went home.
Excellent take all sounds about right to me. GA def going back red. I see the Great Lake states staying blue which is enough in this ridiculous antiquated system. McConnell’s response today about ditching the EC was farcical, but of course that POS knows the writing is on the wall and the GOP is like a dinosaur…
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If it's 60 minutes, how can you believe anything. They have zero credibility after creatively editing the Kamala interview.
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