USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris

[Chief]

Continued in Part 2

USA - 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

The debate is going to be meaningless - they are all just soundbyte farms for each side to use against one another. The attention span of the swinging voter is shorter and shorter (and each side is rusted on in their support). This is but a spectacle rather than substance.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Happy Mastenator]

As I said a while back, I think Pennsylvania might determine this election.

This is not some amazing unique insight. Whoever wins Pennsylvania is in the driving seat. Gets very very difficult to win if lose that.

 

[GreyCrow]

FWIW here is my current prediction, two months out.

View attachment 2103766

Misread post

 

[pjcrows]

New Hampshire? Harris is 6 points ahead currently

?

 

[GreyCrow]

?

Yep I misread it

 

[Satan]

No Chief?

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/06/harris-endorsed-trump-murdoch-yelp-snap-ripple.html

 

[GreyCrow]

No Chief?

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/06/harris-endorsed-trump-murdoch-yelp-snap-ripple.html

He is waiting on FK to decide

 

[Satan]

He is waiting on FK to decide

Your right m8

 

[jatz14]

People assuming that a candidate being denounced by establishment warmongers is a negative thing for said candidate will never stop being funny.

The idea that Republicans are turned off someone because they are called a right wing warmonger is hilarious.

The idea that Republicans are turned off someone because they ARE a right wing warmonger is even more hilarious.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

Whats your thoughts on a large number of Trumps previous cabinet not endorsing him, the most notable of that being his former VP Mike Pence?

Not exactly Never Trumpers

Given almost everyone that has worked with Trump in the past comes to form the view, never again, they are the very definition of a never Trumper.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[carltonchelsea]

I'm looking at data. What are you looking at?

Yeah, I’m gunna need to see that data bud!
Be a good fella and cough it up then will ya?!

 

[pjcrows]

Yeah, I’m gunna need to see that data bud!
Be a good fella and cough it up then will ya?!

The widely available data that shows that Pennsylvania is essentially a dead heat, with other battlegrounds also within the margin of error? Combined with historical data suggesting a Democrat needs to lead the popular vote by +3.5 at a minimum to win? Combined with historical data that at national elections the Democrat has a polling bias? Combined with the fact that we still haven't had a debate yet.

That data?

 

[Dazzler9]

The race is effectively tied at this point. It shouldn't be. But it is.

 

[Financialpanther]

The race is effectively tied at this point. It shouldn't be. But it is.

It was always going to be - the undecided don't know too much about the newcomer to inform them whether they come out to vote or not.

 

[carltonchelsea]

The widely available data that shows that Pennsylvania is essentially a dead heat, with other battlegrounds also within the margin of error? Combined with historical data suggesting a Democrat needs to lead the popular vote by +3.5 at a minimum to win? Combined with historical data that at national elections the Democrat has a polling bias? Combined with the fact that we still haven't had a debate yet.

That data?

Yeah I’m gunna “need to see that data” my guy, how bout you cough up “that data” and stop pissing into the wind and making my job of showcasing your inability to do so, so predictably easy!
That data!

 

[pjcrows]

Yeah I’m gunna “need to see that data” my guy, how bout you cough up “that data” and stop pissing into the wind and making my job of showcasing your uselessness so predictably easy!
That data!

@Politics_Polls and @PpollingNumbers

You know - widely available polling that indicates basically everything I said.

In terms of what I said re: historical data - it's common knowledge. Like, the sky being blue.

 

[carltonchelsea]

@Politics_Polls and @PpollingNumbers

You know - widely available polling that indicates basically everything I said.

In terms of what I said re: historical data - it's common knowledge. Like, the sky being blue.

Oh, you mean the pollsters that agree with your position, conveniently!

 

[pjcrows]

Oh, you mean the pollsters that agree with your position, conveniently!

No, a combination of all the polling, looked at in a balanced way, as well as historical information that is common knowledge.

Where do you get your information from? What's your election prediction?

 

[FireKrakouer]

And yet, they won biden the 2020 election.

Pro-war voters? Perhaps. The arms industry have certainly gotten their return on investment since Biden/Harris took the reigns!

The idea that Republicans are turned off someone because they are called a right wing warmonger is hilarious.

The idea that Republicans are turned off someone because they ARE a right wing warmonger is even more hilarious.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Traditional Republican voters, sure. I remember in 2016 there was some public letter denouncing Trump signed by 50 odd Republican heavyweights. The media pointed out that Trump was essentially running as an independent but taking advantage of the GOP infrastructure, with similar being true of Bernie on the other side of the aisle (who sadly had the primary rigged against him in the end).

My understanding is that Trump got important support from rust belt swing voters in 2016 who had previously voted for Obama. He did that by being an outsider, not an old school Republican. I don't think people desperate for hope and change care about the views of the evil old fossils who sold them the WMD lie and abandoned their communities.

 

[pjcrows]

My understanding is that Trump got important support from rust belt swing voters in 2016 who had previously voted for Obama.

Correct. Voters who came back to the Democrat fold under Obama, but then wouldn't trust a Clinton. And who could blame them.

 

[Maggie5]

No, a combination of all the polling, looked at in a balanced way, as well as historical information that is common knowledge.

Where do you get your information from? What's your election prediction?

Interesting... despite all this your money is on Trump?

 

[pjcrows]

Interesting... despite all this your money is on Trump?

I think it will be very close, but yes.

 

[Maggie5]

I think it will be very close, but yes.

Only time I have put money on politics I won ($100) with Biden and correct electoral votes received last election.

Have started doing the map, but have a few in question.
Their map with those likely or leaning


I have Dems up to 252 with some I am not sure of yet. Given them Arizona and the Blue wall except PA.

 

[pjcrows]

Only time I have put money on politics I won ($100) with Biden and correct electoral votes received last year.

Have started doing the map, but have a few in question.
Their map with those likely or leaning

View attachment 2103958
I have Dems up to 252 with some I am not sure of yet. Given them Arizona and the Blue wall except PA.

View attachment 2103960

Yep, fair enough. That's what I'd have to. I'm just giving PA, NC and GA to Trump, and NV to Harris.

 

[Maggie5]

Yep, fair enough. That's what I'd have to. I'm just giving PA, NC and GA to Trump, and NV to Harris.

I think one factor the polls aren't taking into account are the number of new enrollments, are in the 100,000's since Harris took over.

 

[GreyCrow]

I think one factor the polls aren't taking into account are the number of new enrollments, are in the 100,000's since Harris took over.

Again it depends where and how big a bloc

While I disagree with how pj allocated his numbers I cant fault them

( I think different states fall different ways)