USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris

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Can be very useful. Of more interest how many self identified republicans v self identified dems did they poll. They make assumptions on voter turnout then poll based on that assumption. If their assumption on turnout is wrong then their poll will be wrong.

We can use polling averages though to reduce impact of outliers, will be interesting to see if future pollers see drift back to Trump in Arizona to support what NYT found.

From what i've seen Wisconsin and Michigan seem good for Kamala, that gets her to 251, Pennsylvania will then win it for her with their 19 votes, but if she can't win that, then needs to pick up at least 1 of North Carolina/Georgia and one of Arizona or Nevada. Winning both of Arizona and Nevada will leave her short without one of North Carolina, Georgia or Pennsylvania.
Excellent work. Appreciated.
 

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It is very important to understand why Trump is actually winning a hearing among certain sections of the working class.

The international Brotherhood of Teamsters (IBT) announced last week that it would not endorse Harris, nor Trump. However, the refusal to endorse Harris is widely understood as rejection of Harris and a covert signal of support for Trump.

Polls conducted by the Teamsters union bureaucracy indicate that there is substantial support for Trump among Teamster workers.

How can this be the case?

it is undoubtedly true that substantial numbers of workers plan to vote for Trump in November.

This is not because these workers support Trump’s fascistic agenda. Rather, Trump is able to exploit broad-based social discontent that finds no expression in the political establishment.

Nevertheless, this is a dangerous development. Trump is seeking to build up a fascist movement, threatening to rule as a dictator and deport or arrest millions if made president. Through state and local Republicans he is conspiring to overturn any results against him, and through his racist agitation in Springfield, he is attempting to whip up political violence.

Trump is a able to exploit the fact that the Democrats are deeply unpopular and identified, legitimately, with inequality and war.

The trade union bureaucracy has also spent decades promoting racism against immigrants and foreigners, blaming them for "stealing American jobs". They have helped poison the political environment, setting the stage for Trump’s own racist agitation.

The Biden administration is seeking to build a wartime alliance with the bureaucracy, aimed at securing the home front while Washington barrels ahead towards World War III. Biden put this bluntly in July, when he described the AFL-CIO as his "domestic NATO".

Biden’s policy of allying the government with union officials and big business to fight enemies of the “nation” is known as corporatism, which first developed in Mussolini’s Italy, where it was a core part of fascist ideology. Biden and the Democrats are not fascists, but they are creating an environment favorable for the growth of fascism.

Trump is only able to capitalize on this, however, as long as workers remain trapped within the confines of the two-party system. An entirely different outcome is possible if the working class breaks out of this political straitjacket and develop an independent movement of their own.

Harris is no different from Biden, she will continue his policies. Therefore, if elected (and assuming that Trump does not overturn the result), she will continue to pave the way for a fascist takeover, and at the same time escalate the war in Ukraine, threatening to trigger a nuclear war.
Teamster National haven't made an endorsement but Teamsters Groups in the followings states have endorsed Harris:

Louisville, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada .

Additionally, some Teamsters Retirees organizations and the Teamsters National Black Caucus have also endorsed Harris.

Might be a couple of others that I may have missed.
 

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This "he is going to go full Hitler if he wins" fearmongering is so 2016. As much as I enjoy the recycling of these melodramatic greatest hits, it's time for some fresh material I say!
Whilst I do think some of the Trump alarmism can be a bit overboard (he's not going to be Hitler), I do however think he presents more of a risk this time around than in 2016.

Primarily because in 2016 he still had to worry about re-election. This time around he doesn't.
 
Rent a crowd is now Rent a family
A republican candidate

The campaign of Derrick Anderson, a former Army Green Beret who is running in a competitive race for an open seat in Virginia’s Seventh District, has posted footage of him posing with a woman and her three daughters in what looks like a photo that might be used for an annual holiday card. In another scene filmed for potential use in a campaign ad, Mr. Anderson is seated around the dining room table with the same woman and three girls, chatting and smiling.


But the people are not relatives. They are the wife and children of a longtime friend. Mr. Anderson, who announced this month that he was engaged, does not have any children of his own. His campaign website says he lives with his dog and does not display any of the photos. IMG_1555.jpeg
 
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