Position 2025 Defenders

 

[kyri]

With the extra player (Flex) .....those prices are going to drop quickly

how so wayneo?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

how so wayneo?

It's my theory only, based on gutsroy Magic Number post ....who hopefully can clarify

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Having 31 rather than 30 players, means more players of value (rookies, mi-pricers, and fallen premiums) will rise in price, and given the pool of funds doesn't change ....the peak value players in all probability will fall in price quicker

 

[kyri]

It's my theory only, based on gutsroy Magic Number post ....who hopefully can clarify

Mod. Notice - SC Scoring / Game Info / FAQ / Helpful Links

Thanks to manboob, The_Steadier and krk004 for their contributions to parts of this. SuperCoach Workings: You can trade and substitute players, name your Captain/Vice Captain and change Emergency selections right through each round, up until the time of the start of their team's actual match...

www.bigfooty.com

Having 31 rather than 30 players, means more players of value (rookies, mi-pricers, and fallen premiums) will rise in price, and given the pool of funds doesn't change ....the peak value players in all probability will fall in price quicker

i understand the MN and how it works. but any influence your theory may have, should affect players of all price.

is there something i am blatantly missing?

 

[kyri]

is there something i am blatantly missing?

TPP is what I was missing.

 

[gutsroy]

It's my theory only, based on gutsroy Magic Number post ....who hopefully can clarify

Mod. Notice - SC Scoring / Game Info / FAQ / Helpful Links

Thanks to manboob, The_Steadier and krk004 for their contributions to parts of this. SuperCoach Workings: You can trade and substitute players, name your Captain/Vice Captain and change Emergency selections right through each round, up until the time of the start of their team's actual match...

www.bigfooty.com

Having 31 rather than 30 players, means more players of value (rookies, mi-pricers, and fallen premiums) will rise in price, and given the pool of funds doesn't change ....the peak value players in all probability will fall in price quicker

Need to have a proper think about this, but the MN was reduced to squeeze 31 blokes into spots instead of 30 with the same total squad value and TPP.
The MN changes have a few factors going into then at the start and during the season (who has retired, changes in list size, c , mid-year draft, sub rule tweaks, that sort of gear).
But fundamentally, this year is not different than last year in terms of the 23, sub rule, list size, numbers of trades etc., yeah?
All else being equal, I reckon the MN changes will be proportional to previous years (a little less because the starting MN is the lowest it has been in a while).
Reason being: the price changes are driven moistly by the underpriced blokes riding and the established blokes getting squeezed, and there's no reason to assume it's going to be wildly different this year, unless you see there being a really big difference in the number of rookies getting games then in other years.
But bit of a stream of consciousness take here, will have another think and let you know if anything else comes to mind.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Need to have a proper think about this, but the MN was reduced to squeeze 31 blokes into spots instead of 30 with the same total squad value and TPP.
The MN changes have a few factors going into then at the start and during the season (who has retired, changes in list size, c , mid-year draft, sub rule tweaks, that sort of gear).
But fundamentally, this year is not different than last year in terms of the 23, sub rule, list size, numbers of trades etc., yeah?
All else being equal, I reckon the MN changes will be proportional to previous years (a little less because the starting MN is the lowest it has been in a while).
Reason being: the price changes are driven moistly by the underpriced blokes riding and the established blokes getting squeezed, and there's no reason to assume it's going to be wildly different this year, unless you see there being a really big difference in the number of rookies getting games then in other years.
But bit of a stream of thought take here, will have another think and let you know if anything else comes to mind.

Yeah that makes sense. Unless they have made a change to the way prices are calculated the changes should be a little less dramatic compared to last year.

 

[VainGlorious]

Geez… looking like a lot of value in DEF

Starting to consider not starting a max priced Sheezel

Also sounds like every man and his dog at North is set for more time in the mids and expected to bump up their SC ave by 10-15pts there may not be enough chips to go around?

Who do you think are the ‘value’ types?

Stewart/Sicily/Mills are all underpriced if they can regain some of their form from previous seasons.

All capable of going 105+

 

[Silky23]

At this stage, pretty locked in with Sinclair, Holmes and Mills.

Will complement these guys with Sinn, Paton and a bunch of rooks.

Not sure I like any of the other premo options (outside Houston), but the early bye kills his value for me.

630k+ for Flanders and Sheeze is not something I’m prepared to do just yet.

 

[4tune8]

At this stage, pretty locked in with Sinclair, Holmes and Mills.

Will complement these guys with Sinn, Paton and a bunch of rooks.

Not sure I like any of the other premo options (outside Houston), but the early bye kills his value for me.

630k+ for Flanders and Sheeze is not something I’m prepared to do just yet.

Does Flander's draw make up for, or even exceed his loss of points from his early bye? $630k is steep, but WCE, Melb, Crows, North and Tigers is pretty juicy.

 

[Silky23]

Does Flander's draw make up for, or even exceed his loss of points from his early bye? $630k is steep, but WCE, Melb, Crows, North and Tigers is pretty juicy.

Most definitely. Role change though? Not sure I want to pay 630k if he's playing primarily midfield, pushing up from a HFF.

Rioli and Noble down back now to play the half back distributor role.

Flanders is definitely a fantasy pig, but way too many unknowns for me atm. He'd be 4th in line for the midfield too - Rowell, Anderson, Touk in front. Not that it matters much, but it's a lot of money for a guy who won't have the same role as last year which was extremely conducive to points.

 

[Lord De Goey]

Does Flander's draw make up for, or even exceed his loss of points from his early bye? $630k is steep, but WCE, Melb, Crows, North and Tigers is pretty juicy.

Most people will wait and see how Flanders goes in the opening round before locking him into their sides. He's still a relative unknown and gets moved around quite a bit, so it's a tough ask paying 640k. I'd be prepared to wait until his bye, then assess depending on how he's going. Missing the West Coast matchup sucks but I'd still get on for the North/Tigers games.

 

[Veer Right]

Thoughts on Ben Paton? Like that D/F status.

Lock down small defender.

Will make you 150k and that's about it.

 

[Sherman41]

Most definitely. Role change though? Not sure I want to pay 630k if he's playing primarily midfield, pushing up from a HFF.

Rioli and Noble down back now to play the half back distributor role.

Flanders is definitely a fantasy pig, but way too many unknowns for me atm. He'd be 4th in line for the midfield too - Rowell, Anderson, Touk in front. Not that it matters much, but it's a lot of money for a guy who won't have the same role as last year which was extremely conducive to points.

Flanders role changed last year, he played mid and forward for the majority of the second half of the season.

Averaged 120.3 pre bye and 117.5 post bye.

Mid forward role appeared to have minimal impact on his scoring.

I’ll happily pay up for a 115 average across the season. I’ll be getting him at some stage, so may as well start with him.

 

[Eagling]

Lock down small defender.

Will make you 150k and that's about it.

Making $150k is a great return.

 

[King_Steele]

Flanders roll changed last year, he played mid and forward for the majority of the second half of the season.

Averaged 120.3 pre bye and 117.5 post bye.

Mid forward role appeared to have minimal impact on his scoring.

I’ll happily pay up for a 115 average across the season. I’ll be getting him at some stage, so may as well start with him.

+1.

Draw to start too good to refuse IMO

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Making $150k is a great return.

Currently D7 I will be stocked if he plays.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I've been studying the merit of NWM versus Sicily .....Holmes bye restricts me too much

On previous seasons Sicily was similar to Ryan, with his stats padding .....last season, pre-shoulder injury his scoring was moderate

Am I correct in thinking, like Ryans 2nd half of the season drop-off .....that HAW are looking to exit D50 much quicker than previous seasons .....and will that impact Sicily, if he can't stats pad ?

Deliverance vanders pincrusher

 

[pincrusher]

I've been studying the merit of NWM versus Sicily .....Holmes bye restricts me too much

On previous seasons Sicily was similar to Ryan, with his stats padding .....last season, pre-shoulder injury his scoring was moderate

Am I correct in thinking, like Ryans 2nd half of the season drop-off .....that HAW are looking to exit D50 much quicker than previous seasons .....and will that impact Sicily, if he can't stats pad ?

Deliverance vanders pincrusher

I think it's a no brainer that you take NWM. He's on fire in the pre season and there are too many unknowns in where Sicily is going to play. Could be forward a fair bit early in the season because of the injuries to their key forwards. FWIW I am taking Holmes regardless. Risk of pinging a string aside, I reckon he's a should for one of the top 3 defenders this year.

 

[vanders]

I've been studying the merit of NWM versus Sicily .....Holmes bye restricts me too much

On previous seasons Sicily was similar to Ryan, with his stats padding .....last season, pre-shoulder injury his scoring was moderate

Am I correct in thinking, like Ryans 2nd half of the season drop-off .....that HAW are looking to exit D50 much quicker than previous seasons .....and will that impact Sicily, if he can't stats pad ?

Deliverance vanders pincrusher

Sicily has been playing high half back in the match sims and he’ll be impacted by Barass especially stealing some of his intercepts.

The ball is likely to be put in the hands of Amon Impey & Weddle to move it quickly so even though Sic will roam further up the ground I’d be surprised if he averages more than NWM. Depends if he takes the kick ins or if Scrimshaw and/or Amon takes most of them. Sic will still score well but not 110+ I don’t think

 

[Obese Arachnid]

People leave my pods alone, I'm going with the Holmes Wang too.

 

[gutsroy]

Yeah that makes sense. Unless they have made a change to the way prices are calculated the changes should be a little less dramatic compared to last year.

Yeah, there is a slight shift in the pricing.
The standard rookies are priced at a touch over 22, (22.25), that was a touch under 23 previously (if anyone is looking to be precise,.it's like 22.25 vs 23 pretty much on the nose).
Multiply your 102.4kers by that factor and you land at 99.1k, so numbers seem about right

So.that means they're priced at a bit under a point lower, meaning a slightly bigger delta and slightly larger first price rise, but itt's not enough to shift things a ton, tbh

That's all I can really think of (?), but could definitely be leaving out something that'd make a difference

 

[gutsroy]

People leave my pods alone, I'm going with the Holmes Wang too.

Holmes saucy. Not Baby Daics saucy, but who is ...

 

[Deliverance]

I've been studying the merit of NWM versus Sicily .....Holmes bye restricts me too much

On previous seasons Sicily was similar to Ryan, with his stats padding .....last season, pre-shoulder injury his scoring was moderate

Am I correct in thinking, like Ryans 2nd half of the season drop-off .....that HAW are looking to exit D50 much quicker than previous seasons .....and will that impact Sicily, if he can't stats pad ?

Deliverance vanders pincrusher

I think Sic will be the main one given free licence to peel off and intercept, and he will embarrass a lot of opposition defensive and midfield units in their transition attempts. His kicking is a weapon, so he's not the type to need to hand off to others to exit D50 or enter F50. When you can hit a target from 60m, run and carry is not needed. The Hawks will still run and gun as they did in 2023 though, so exiting D50 quickly is not new for them. His game stacks up perfectly for supercoach and modern footy and despite Barras also being a good reader of the ball, I think battle and barrass additions will help him compared to last year.
Still some concern over him playing forward though. Early bye sucks as well. Hoping his shoulder is at full strength also.
NWM just keeps going from strength to strength though and also a very good selection. The bye might just tip it in his favour even. Think they'll both be on the 100-110 range.

 

[Deliverance]

Holmes saucy. Not Baby Daics saucy, but who is ...

What's the appeal of Holmes? Early bye players need to be about 10 points underpriced. Has he got an extra 10 points in him?

 

[gutsroy]

What's the appeal of Holmes? Early bye players need to be about 10 points underpriced. Has he got an extra 10 points in him?

This is the moment when Scoops drops the strides and admits he keeps forgetting about the byes
Will have to keep it in mind when we get closer to the starting line
All else being equal I think he's got the development arc, the role(s) etc. all going for him.