Fixture 2025 draw any news or leaks? (Fixture released today)

[Meteoric Rise]

Let me make this simple.

If a team was to be the recipient of a draw biased in their favour, this would be most easily achieved by giving them a favourable selection of double up opponents based on expected finishing position in the upcoming season as at the date the fixture is finalised.

This is what has happened to Geelong. Yet again.

The simplest credible way to work out the expected finishing position of teams is by reference to current Premiership betting odds.

Not really that hard to understand unless you are a Geelong supporter trying to pretend this isn't actual.

 

[Fadge]

Let me make this simple.

If a team was to be the recipient of a draw biased in their favour, this would be most easily achieved by giving them a favourable selection of double up opponents based on expected finishing position in the upcoming season as at the date the fixture is finalised.

How does Geelong's fixture compare to say, Carlton's?

 

[Underarm]

Anyone who thinks you can guess how hard a fixture is before the season is a casual, no idea, imagine end of 2023 you got Collingwood 1st, Melbourne (top 4 end of regular) and saints (finalist) twice…..you would have been worried.

Here they said Brisbane had the “worst” draw and they had all the teams that slid.

Winners and losers: Who cashed in on AFL’s ‘weighted’ 2024 fixture as Dimma gifted dream run

Winners and losers: Who cashed in on AFL’s ‘weighted’ fixture as Dimma gifted dream run

www.foxsports.com.au

Yep. Any media that puts out a fixture analysis should have to show how well their formula did the previous year.

 

[Fadge]

The simplest credible way to work out the expected finishing position of teams is by reference to current Premiership betting odds.

JustaBattler - what are your thoughts on this comment?

 

[Fadge]

Or a B*tchmond fan trying to make excuses for something that hasn’t even happened yet and explain away 20 years of results that no amount of being a pussy can dismiss

I wonder if Richmond fans are happy with their draw - that is, it's difficult enough to ensure they're no chance of finishing anything other than 18th?

 

[PhatBoy]

I wonder if Richmond fans are happy with their draw - that is, it's difficult enough to ensure they're no chance of finishing anything other than 18th?

Lollll my favourite part of The Pensioner’s ramblings was where he tried to say that getting Brisbane in the first week is part of the conspiracy because they’ll obviously be trying to replicate what happened this year.

Yeah I’m sure they’ll be trying to start 2-5 or whatever it was and have to battle their way through three cut throat finals and come back from seven goals down in a semi and then travel interstate for a prelim. They’d love to HAVE to do it that way.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Weird the push to have night games in Launy.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

How does Geelong's fixture compare to say, Carlton's?

Same.

 

[Sentinel]

Curious that North next year are the only side in 2 seasons to have no away game against either West Coast or Fremantle across the year. Coincidence or by design as part of the WA deal?

 

[Grasshopper17]

Curious that North next year are the only side in 2 seasons to have no away game against either West Coast or Fremantle across the year. Coincidence or by design as part of the WA deal?

By design I heard today. For at least the first year of the deal.

I recall when Melbourne hosted Brisbane at the Gabba for a few years about 20-25 years ago, they never once played a 2nd game in the same year there as the away team.

 

[hawkman]

Hawthorn, Essendon, Carlton and Collingwood the proof that the AFL doesn’t give teams key Thursday/Friday night timeslots, teams have to earn them.

Port Adelaide and GWS just have to be better.

Not sure why we are included. We have gone from none when we terrible to now being rewarded for playing good exciting footy

 

[Fadge]

Lollll my favourite part of The Pensioner’s ramblings was where he tried to say that getting Brisbane in the first week is part of the conspiracy because they’ll obviously be trying to replicate what happened this year.

Yeah I’m sure they’ll be trying to start 2-5 or whatever it was and have to battle their way through three cut throat finals and come back from seven goals down in a semi and then travel interstate for a prelim. They’d love to HAVE to do it that way.

My favourite part is a big reason as to why anyone would suggest Geelong have been handed an easy draw is by virtue of their double up fixture against.....

RICHMOND!

 

[kranky al]

Love Port's draw.

It will be Hinkley's farewell tour.

You port supporters and your gorgeous optimism.

Hinkley will be there on an oxygen machine in his 90’s

 

[Dirty Bird]

Some random thoughts on the fixture

It's bullshit that West Coast has to play Gold Coast in Rd 1
It's bullshit that Melbourne has to play Greater Western Sydney in Rd 1
It's bullshit that Fremantle has to play Geelong in Rd 1
I acknowledge that Port Adelaide has to play Collingwood in Rd 1 which is unfair
It's bullshit that Melbourne has to play Gold Coast in Rd 3
It's bullshit that Hawthorn has to play Greater Western Sydney in Rd 3
It's bullshit that Carlton has to play Collingwood in Rd 4
It's bullshit that Melbourne has to play Geelong in Rd 4
It's bullshit that Richmond has to play Brisbane in Rd 4
It's bullshit that North Melbourne has to play Sydney in Rd 4
It's bullshit that Melbourne (holy ****, does the AFL have a vendetta against them?) has to play Essendon in Rd 5
I acknowledge that Port Adelaide has to play Hawthorn in Rd 5 which is unfair
I like that the AFL has given us an all non-victorian Primetime national telecast game in Rd 13
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 Marvel Stadium games in Rd 17
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 Marvel Stadium games in Rd 20
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 Marvel Stadium games in Rd 21
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 MCG games in Rd 22
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 Marvel Stadium games in Rd 23
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 MCG games in Rd 24
It's bullshit that Adelaide, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs are covering the slack of Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Gold Coast, Melbourne and Sydney with travelling to other teams' secondary grounds. But I guess Essendon, Gold Coast and Melbourne are at least going to alphabet park. Inexplicable that Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong and Sydney get to avoid it altogether.

 

[eth-dog]

Some random thoughts on the fixture

It's bullshit that West Coast has to play Gold Coast in Rd 1
It's bullshit that Melbourne has to play Greater Western Sydney in Rd 1
It's bullshit that Fremantle has to play Geelong in Rd 1
I acknowledge that Port Adelaide has to play Collingwood in Rd 1 which is unfair
It's bullshit that Melbourne has to play Gold Coast in Rd 3
It's bullshit that Hawthorn has to play Greater Western Sydney in Rd 3
It's bullshit that Carlton has to play Collingwood in Rd 4
It's bullshit that Melbourne has to play Geelong in Rd 4
It's bullshit that Richmond has to play Brisbane in Rd 4
It's bullshit that North Melbourne has to play Sydney in Rd 4
It's bullshit that Melbourne (holy ****, does the AFL have a vendetta against them?) has to play Essendon in Rd 5
I acknowledge that Port Adelaide has to play Hawthorn in Rd 5 which is unfair
I like that the AFL has given us an all non-victorian Primetime national telecast game in Rd 13
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 Marvel Stadium games in Rd 17
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 Marvel Stadium games in Rd 20
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 Marvel Stadium games in Rd 21
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 MCG games in Rd 22
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 Marvel Stadium games in Rd 23
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 MCG games in Rd 24
It's bullshit that Adelaide, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs are covering the slack of Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Gold Coast, Melbourne and Sydney with travelling to other teams' secondary grounds. But I guess Essendon, Gold Coast and Melbourne are at least going to alphabet park. Inexplicable that Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong and Sydney get to avoid it altogether.

Any bullshit with Essendon in the same sentence has to be crazy, we play more games against last years top 8 than anyone else apart from Freo (same amount).

 

[hawkman]

Some random thoughts on the fixture

It's bullshit that West Coast has to play Gold Coast in Rd 1
It's bullshit that Melbourne has to play Greater Western Sydney in Rd 1
It's bullshit that Fremantle has to play Geelong in Rd 1
I acknowledge that Port Adelaide has to play Collingwood in Rd 1 which is unfair
It's bullshit that Melbourne has to play Gold Coast in Rd 3
It's bullshit that Hawthorn has to play Greater Western Sydney in Rd 3
It's bullshit that Carlton has to play Collingwood in Rd 4
It's bullshit that Melbourne has to play Geelong in Rd 4
It's bullshit that Richmond has to play Brisbane in Rd 4
It's bullshit that North Melbourne has to play Sydney in Rd 4
It's bullshit that Melbourne (holy ****, does the AFL have a vendetta against them?) has to play Essendon in Rd 5
I acknowledge that Port Adelaide has to play Hawthorn in Rd 5 which is unfair
I like that the AFL has given us an all non-victorian Primetime national telecast game in Rd 13
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 Marvel Stadium games in Rd 17
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 Marvel Stadium games in Rd 20
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 Marvel Stadium games in Rd 21
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 MCG games in Rd 22
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 Marvel Stadium games in Rd 23
It's bullshit that the AFL scheduled 3 MCG games in Rd 24
It's bullshit that Adelaide, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs are covering the slack of Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Gold Coast, Melbourne and Sydney with travelling to other teams' secondary grounds. But I guess Essendon, Gold Coast and Melbourne are at least going to alphabet park. Inexplicable that Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong and Sydney get to avoid it altogether.

Wow Melbourne cops teams off byes 3 weeks in a row. That is rough

 

[PhatBoy]

It’s just bullshit that any venue anywhere isn’t exactly where all other venues are and that all other teams didn’t finish in exactly the same positions as all the other teams finished last year and they don’t all play each other at exactly the same times off exactly the same breaks on the same day with the same underpants coming from the same washz

It’s just bullshit man

 

[JustaBattler]

JustaBattler - what are your thoughts on this comment?

I agree with the word 'simple' - if the context is ( for simpletons)
I dont agree with the word 'credible' (see above)


as for the rest of the statement I think it is quite acceptable- since it is preferenced with the use of the word 'expectations' which references the clearing mechanism 'odds' a derivative of price, in the (calculus) market for 'expectations'

also dont tag me minnow

 

[Dirty Bird]

Honest question - WTF is up with Port Adelaide's schedule

Home games vs Richmond, St Kilda, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney, Carlton, West Coast, Fremantle, Gold Coast - That's 5 of the 7 non-victorian teams (so will be banished to foxtel for all games).

Then the Victorian teams are the poor supported ones like North Melbourne, Melbourne and St Kilda. And a Richmond side with the wheels off the bandwagon.

They only have 3 teams that can draw in Geelong, Carlton and us. And that Geelong game isn't even primetime with Carlton TBD. Their only home primetime game is us in Rd 9.

Throw in the fact they have away games to Western Bulldogs in Ballarat, Greater Western Sydney in Canberra, Hawthorn in Launceston, and to top it off, Geelong in Geelong. (a club should only have to travel to 1 of the aforementioned venues, not 3 like Port. And if you include Geelong's 10 games, a little less than half the teams should be going to TWO regional venues, not the 4 that Port has)

And only 3 games in Melbourne, 2 of which are at Marvel, and the 1 at the MCG is in Rd 1. And if my calculations are correct, they only have 2 games with a national broadcast.

That's one of, if not the worst commercial draws I've ever seen. With a fixture like that, I'd be sitting here wondering whether they've just won the last 3 wooden spoons, with no foreseeable hope.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Collingwood finish out of the eight and get the third-hardest draw.

Last year there were three truly bad teams - West Coast, North Melbourne and Richmond - who lost a combined 59 games.

In 2025, 14 teams play at least one of that trio twice, with only Collingwood, Brisbane, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide missing out.

And hawks did get north and Richmond twice last year so fair enough to miss this time

 

[Crankyhawk]

If you wanna win the flag, playing hard games is for the best.

So Stop whining, get over it, and get good.

Does suck for our draft picks that Carlton’s draw is easy though

 

[portly]

Honest question - WTF is up with Port Adelaide's schedule

Home games vs Richmond, St Kilda, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney, Carlton, West Coast, Fremantle, Gold Coast - That's 5 of the 7 non-victorian teams (so will be banished to foxtel for all games).

Then the Victorian teams are the poor supported ones like North Melbourne, Melbourne and St Kilda. And a Richmond side with the wheels off the bandwagon.

They only have 3 teams that can draw in Geelong, Carlton and us. And that Geelong game isn't even primetime with Carlton TBD. Their only home primetime game is us in Rd 9.

Throw in the fact they have away games to Western Bulldogs in Ballarat, Greater Western Sydney in Canberra, Hawthorn in Launceston, and to top it off, Geelong in Geelong. (a club should only have to travel to 1 of the aforementioned venues, not 3 like Port. And if you include Geelong's 10 games, a little less than half the teams should be going to TWO regional venues, not the 4 that Port has)

And only 3 games in Melbourne, 2 of which are at Marvel, and the 1 at the MCG is in Rd 1. And if my calculations are correct, they only have 2 games with a national broadcast.

That's one of, if not the worst commercial draws I've ever seen. With a fixture like that, I'd be sitting here wondering whether they've just won the last 3 wooden spoons, with no foreseeable hope.

Thank you for coming onto our board and not gloating.

Yes, it is an awful commercial deal.

And our pathetic don't-aspire-to-greatness admin will just roll over and take it.

Soft as!

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Hawthorn, Essendon, Carlton and Collingwood the proof that the AFL doesn’t give teams key Thursday/Friday night timeslots, teams have to earn them.

Port Adelaide and GWS just have to be better.

Be fair though Hawks made the finals and Carlton were top 4 a lot of the year. Port have a decent draw anyway plus you get Gather Round or whatever that thing is called

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Weird the push to have night games in Launy.

Cant be worse than those putrid games in Darwin

 

[WillHayward]

Port got absolutely screwed.

Dod Kochie root Dillon Andrews mum?