2025 Ladder Predictions

[Sqotty from office works]

1/brizzy
2/Carlton
3/Giants
4/port
5/Fremantle
6/geelong
7/hawks
8/Collingwood
9/swans
10/Saints
11/gold coast
12/bulldogs
13/Melbourne
14/Adelaide

15/Essendon
16/north
17/West coast
18/rihcmond

 

[Gavin Excell]

Totally agree. Funnily enough I remember looking into this a few years ago, and though the 6 years of 2009-2014 were a bit more stagnant, interestingy a team coming in from outside the 8 has been the norm for nearly 40 years now.

To throw out a few more ideas on why it happens, perhaps clubs put a lot of stock in the difference between playing and missing out on finals; maybe 5th-8th sides generally consider themselves 'nearly there' and don't make the big off-field changes they actually need to make to put themselves in proper contention, like coaching / game plan changes. Fixturing double ups as well (is supposed to) pit 1st-6th against each other with the express idea of them knocking each other out of the running for a repeat spot, whereas 7th and down can land a moderate to helpful fixture for the next year. I also don't think it coinicidence that the start in this trend syncs up with the same time the comp expanded past 12 teams and introduced its equality measures.

1944 -> 1945 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1945 -> 1946 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1946 -> 1947 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1947 -> 1948 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1948 -> 1949 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1949 -> 1950 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1950 -> 1951 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1951 -> 1952 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1952 -> 1953 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1953 -> 1954 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1954 -> 1955 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1955 -> 1956 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1956 -> 1957 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1957 -> 1958 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1958 -> 1959 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1959 -> 1960 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1960 -> 1961 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1961 -> 1962 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1962 -> 1963 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4

1963 -> 1964 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1964 -> 1965 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1965 -> 1966 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1966 -> 1967 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1967 -> 1968 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1968 -> 1969 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1969 -> 1970 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1970 -> 1971 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1971 -> 1972 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1972 -> 1973 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1973 -> 1974 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1974 -> 1975 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1975 -> 1976 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1976 -> 1977 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1977 -> 1978 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1978 -> 1979 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1979 -> 1980 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1980 -> 1981 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1981 -> 1982 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1982 -> 1983 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1983 -> 1984 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1984 -> 1985 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4

1985 -> 1986 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1986 -> 1987 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1987 -> 1988 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1988 -> 1989 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1989 -> 1990 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1990 -> 1991 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1991 -> 1992 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1992 -> 1993 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1993 -> 1994 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1994 -> 1995 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1995 -> 1996 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1996 -> 1997 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 3 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1997 -> 1998 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1998 -> 1999 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1999 -> 2000 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2000 -> 2001 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2001 -> 2002 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2002 -> 2003 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2003 -> 2004 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2004 -> 2005 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2005 -> 2006 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2006 -> 2007 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 3 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2007 -> 2008 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2008 -> 2009 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2009 -> 2010 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2010 -> 2011 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2011 -> 2012 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2012 -> 2013 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2013 -> 2014 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2014 -> 2015 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2015 -> 2016 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2016 -> 2017 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2017 -> 2018 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2018 -> 2019 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2019 -> 2020 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2020 -> 2021 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2021 -> 2022 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2022 -> 2023 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2023 -> 2024 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4

I wish you expanded on your initial point to make the case

 

[Big Blood]

Geelong
Collingwood
Brisbane
Sydney
Hawthorn
GWS
Freo
Carlton

Gold Coast
Adelaide
Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Essendon
Bulldogs
North Melbourne
St Kilda
West Coast
Richmond

 

[BigVic]

1. Hawthorn
2. Geelong Cats
3. Sydney Swans
4. Brisbane Lions
5. Fremantle
6. Collingwood
7. Port Adelaide
8. Gold Coast Suns
___________________
9. Carlton
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Melbourne
12. GWS Giants
13. West Coast Eagles
14. Adelaide Crows
15. Essendon
16. St Kilda
17. North Melbourne
18. Richmond

2025 AFL Grand Final: Hawthorn vs Geelong Cats
Premiership: Hawthorn by 29 points
Norm Smith: Will Day
Brownlow: Caleb Serong
Coleman: Jeremy Cameron
Rising Star: Sam Lalor

 

[Fadge]

1. Hawthorn
2. Geelong Cats
3. Sydney Swans
4. Brisbane Lions
5. Fremantle
6. Collingwood
7. Port Adelaide
8. Gold Coast Suns
___________________
9. Carlton
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Melbourne
12. GWS Giants
13. West Coast Eagles
14. Adelaide Crows
15. Essendon
16. St Kilda
17. North Melbourne
18. Richmond

2025 AFL Grand Final: Hawthorn vs Geelong Cats
Premiership: Hawthorn by 29 points
Norm Smith: Will Day
Brownlow: Caleb Serong
Coleman: Jeremy Cameron
Rising Star: Sam Lalor

Impressed by Will Day and Hawthorn's first half tonight?

It feels as though I'm watching a top 4 team against a 5-8 team.

 

[tugga]

Ladder after home and away:
Cats
Blues
Lions
Hawks
Freo
Pies
GWS
Crom

Swans (new coach, new style)
Pear (succession plan issues, prob my biggest conundrum)
Dogs (offield issues)
Dons
Suns (need to convince me)
Dees
Saints (tempted to put higher)
North (see above)
WCE
Tiges

 

[GreyCrow]

I admire your confidence but I am down grading Carlton for now - and that could be to my detriment

Could go 1-3 so downgrading them could be spot on

By handballing too much they gave Richmond opportunity to jump onto a mistake added with less ground to make up on the rebound

Bad coaching tonight

 

[Madas]

Ladder after home and away:
Cats
Blues
Lions
Hawks
Freo
Pies
GWS
Crom

Swans (new coach, new style)
Pear (succession plan issues, prob my biggest conundrum)
Dogs (offield issues)
Dons
Suns (need to convince me)
Dees
Saints (tempted to put higher)
North (see above)
WCE
Tiges

You might wanna rethink that ladder mate

 

[LuckyBounce!]

18th Carlton

 

[matey]

18th Carlton

That would be great as the Hawks have their 1st!

 

[Mr.X]

Blues will be bottom 6 if they keep putting out the rubbish they dished up in rnd 1

 

[Gavin Excell]

Swans Blues and Port finalists from.last season all look questionable early on

 

[tiger_tough]

The top 8 is looking pretty settled IMO.

 

[Toffee Lion]

The top 8 is looking pretty settled IMO.

Brisbane to miss finals like Collingwood last year.

Rats.

 

[tiger_tough]

Brisbane to miss finals like Collingwood last year.

Rats.

 

[Fadge]

Blues will be bottom 6 if they keep putting out the rubbish they dished up in rnd 1

Carlton lost to a team many thought wouldn't win a game this year.

If they 'keep putting out the rubbish they dished up in round 1', they'll be Bottom 1.

 

[MadMundy]

18. West Coast

Easy choice really.

 

[GreyCrow]

Why would Walsh or Curnow be proppy until Rd 4?

Thoughts?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Thoughts?

Yeah fair calls on both accounts

 

[Dtennent94]

1-5
Giants, Lions, Hawks, Pies, Cats

6-7
Swans, Suns

8-14
Dogs, Crows, Power, Bombers, Blues, Dockers, Dees

15-18
Tigers, Eagles, Kangas, Saints

 

[Fadge]

1-5
Giants, Lions, Hawks, Pies, Cats

6-7
Swans, Suns

8-14
Dogs, Crows, Power, Bombers, Blues, Dockers, Dees

15-18
Tigers, Eagles, Kangas, Saints

Good list.

I would add Crows, Dockers and Dees to the second rung and demote Carlton to the 4th rung.

 

[Dtennent94]

Good list.

I would add Crows, Dockers and Dees to the second rung and demote Carlton to the 4th rung.

I was trying not to fence-sit too much and make a point of locking in swans and suns to my 8

 

[hawkinoz]

I will have a go

1. Hawthorn (P)
2. Western Bulldogs (RU)
3. Fremantle
4. GWS
5. Sydney
6. Collingwood
7. Gold Coast
8. Adelaide
9. Brisbane
10. Geelong
11. St Kilda
12. Essendon
13. Port Adelaide
14. North Melbourne
15. Carlton
16. Melbourne
17. West Coast Eagles
18. Richmond

This is looking good... all the lols from blues just the icing

Will have to do an update soon, seems like I underestimated the Cats & Lions

 

[imagifED]

1) GWS
2) Fremantle
3) Brisbane
4) Geelong
5) Carlton
6) Adelaide
7) Collingwood
8) Hawthorn
9) Gold Coast
10) Melbourne
11) Sydney
12) Essendon
13) St Kilda
14) North Melbourne
15) Port Adelaide
16) Western Bulldogs
17) West Coast
18) Richmond

Predicted we would crash and burn last year when most thought we would play finals even make top 4.
I cannot see how Nicks does not make finals for the first time this year with everything served on a silver platter.

Got sucked into Carlton with their building and AFL fairytale hype. Want to slide them down to 11th/12th and move everyone up a position. Gold Coast to make finals for the first time.

 

[Dtennent94]

What’s so special about Adelaide this year?