20th AFL Team

[Cubs2Lions]

Still can't believe people are putting a third SA team above Canberra for Team 20.

I'm still waiting for my South Adelaide Panthers to join the big dance of the AFL, let me call up my friend Tigerlaird to tell you all about why the Mighty Panthers should be a part of the competition

Besides my obvious bias showing, Canberra outweighs the long-term benefits of another SA team joining the competition by far and hopefully once that deal is finished between GWS, the ACT government decides to use that money appropriately on a new club cause it would do wonders over there for the community.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

GWS playing games in Canberra is a big obsticle to Canberra getting it's own team, and yes i knoe the deal is meant to end in 2034 i think I have a feeling it will be renewed again and if it is they will kill any hopes of Canberra getting their own team.

Funnily enough, the AFL have been adament that there won't be a 20th team straight after Tasmania's first season so maybe they are prepared to wait until that deal is completed before Canberra plays their first match, which could mean a 6-7 year gap between going from 19 to 20 teams.

Agree though that if both parties on renewing the existing deal past 2034, it would kill any chance of Canberra and the ACT region having their own team, which would be a massive shame.

 

[Coolangatta]

Funnily enough, the AFL have been adament that there won't be a 20th team straight after Tasmania's first season so maybe they are prepared to wait until that deal is completed before Canberra plays their first match, which could mean a 6-7 year gap between going from 19 to 20 teams.

Agree though that if both parties on renewing the existing deal past 2034, it would kill any chance of Canberra and the ACT region having their own team, which would be a massive shame.

My bet is Canberra comes in by 2033 and GWS see out their contract until 2032.

 

[Walshawk]

Funnily enough, the AFL have been adament that there won't be a 20th team straight after Tasmania's first season so maybe they are prepared to wait until that deal is completed before Canberra plays their first match, which could mean a 6-7 year gap between going from 19 to 20 teams.

Agree though that if both parties on renewing the existing deal past 2034, it would kill any chance of Canberra and the ACT region having their own team, which would be a massive shame.

The AFL will likely have a look at the new stadium, returns, crowds, ratings, etc, before deciding on if and where to add a 20th team. I reckon a decision in 2030 and a team around 2035. If Canberra get a BBL team and upgraded Manuka, the AFL will look at that as well. A new Canberra team would assume any contract with the Giants. That is not an issue.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

My bet is Canberra comes in by 2033 and GWS see out their contract until 2032.

The AFL will likely have a look at the new stadium, returns, crowds, ratings, etc, before deciding on if and where to add a 20th team. I reckon a decision in 2030 and a team around 2035. If Canberra get a BBL team and upgraded Manuka, the AFL will look at that as well. A new Canberra team would assume any contract with the Giants. That is not an issue.

The other benefit that would have to see out the GWS-ACT deal before Canberra gets their own license in 2033 would be the club can spend a couple of years in the lower leagues first (U18s / VFL) while getting the club's resources ready before joining the AFL such as the model below:

2030 - Unders 16 / 18s

2031 - Under 16 / 18s & VFL

2032 - Under 16 / 18s & VFL

2033 - Under 16 / 18s, VFL & AFL

 

[JPetro83]

Still can't believe people are putting a third SA team above Canberra for Team 20.

Question, lets say Norwood or a 3rd WA side are the 20th team.. how many on average would go to a home?
How many would go to see Canberra play at a home game?

 

[Canberra Pear]

Question, lets say Norwood or a 3rd WA side are the 20th team.. how many on average would go to a home?
How many would go to see Canberra play at a home game?

Excluding derbies, I'd say just under 20k for Canberra (capacity allowing) and Norwood, and a bit over 20k for WA3.

Difference is 20k at Manuka would be a great atmosphere and money maker, while it'd be pretty empty at Adelaide Oval or Optus.

 

[JPetro83]

Excluding derbies, I'd say just under 20k for Canberra (capacity allowing) and Norwood, and a bit over 20k for WA3.

Difference is 20k at Manuka would be a great atmosphere and money maker, while it'd be pretty empty at Adelaide Oval or Optus.

Norwood could play at a developed Parade? get the capacity up to 30k

 

[Canberra Pear]

Norwood could play at a developed Parade? get the capacity up to 30k

Then it suddenly doesn't become such an easy bid.

It's also surrounded by houses and it's up against a road. Not really much room to expand.

 

[RedV3x]

Still can't believe people are putting a third SA team above Canberra for Team 20.

Yes, Canberra is a "new" market.
The potential development is quite predictable.
If some entity were to get behind a Canberra push then it would be a lay-down-misere.

P.S. I don't see a problem with the GWS contract.

 

[Purple Suit]

Excluding derbies, I'd say just under 20k for Canberra (capacity allowing) and Norwood, and a bit over 20k for WA3.

Difference is 20k at Manuka would be a great atmosphere and money maker, while it'd be pretty empty at Adelaide Oval or Optus.

Freo averaged 24k in 1995 when the population was half the size & stadium 50% smaller.

WA3 would get over 30k pa just from a novelty in the first season. 2 home games will be 55k each. Especially if they played home on a weekend by themselves & double up Freo & WC on the same weekend.

 

[Bjo187]

An interesting video on ABC yesterday, more than anything showing what a disaster an N.T AFL team would be.

Growing push for Northern Territory to join AFL

Follow the latest news headlines from Australia's most trusted source. Read in-depth expert analysis and watch live coverage on ABC News.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Canberra Pear]

Freo averaged 24k in 1995 when the population was half the size & stadium 50% smaller.

WA3 would get over 30k pa just from a novelty in the first season. 2 home games will be 55k each. Especially if they played home on a weekend by themselves & double up Freo & WC on the same weekend.

But a third Perth team is going to be less popular than Freo was.

We don't have a lot of examples, because it doesn't happen that often, but Macarthur and Western United are the only high profile "third teams" I can think of, and neither have gone as well as they expected.

Second teams, the Wanderers and even Melbourne City/Heart, did relatively well from the beginning. They're a great comparison for Freo. Bringing in the sorely needed crosstown rival.

But the third teams aren't even reaching crowds half those of the second teams. They've been disappointments.

Using Freo isn't a good comparison of what to expect for a third team.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

But a third Perth team is going to be less popular than Freo was.

We don't have a lot of examples, because it doesn't happen that often, but Macarthur and Western United are the only high profile "third teams" I can think of, and neither have gone as well as they expected.

Second teams, the Wanderers and even Melbourne City/Heart, did relatively well from the beginning. They're a great comparison for Freo. Bringing in the sorely needed crosstown rival.

But the third teams aren't even reaching crowds half those of the second teams. They've been disappointments.

Using Freo isn't a good comparison of what to expect for a third team.

The A-League made such a massive blunder in choosing Western United and Macarthur to join the competition as there were many more better options out there like Tasmania, Canberra, Wollongong and Gold Coast.

Reckon the only reason the AFL maybe wants WA3 to happen as the 20th team is to kill off all momentum that an NRL team would have going from there initially when they enter the competition in 2027 or 2028.

In saying all that though, still think WA3 will become the 21st team by 2050, once Tasmania and hopefully Canberra gain entry into the competition in 5-10 years.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The A-League made such a massive blunder in choosing Western United and Macarthur to join the competition as there were many more better options out there like Tasmania, Canberra, Wollongong and Gold Coast.

Reckon the only reason the AFL maybe wants WA3 to happen as the 20th team is to kill off all momentum that an NRL team would have going from there initially when they enter the competition in 2027 or 2028.

In saying all that though, still think WA3 will become the 21st team by 2050, once Tasmania and hopefully Canberra gain entry into the competition in 5-10 years.

The AFL would want a third team in Perth because basic population growth suggests it, as well as to reinforce the general love of the AFL in that otherwise AFL-loving individuals may drift away from the league because of the inability to access game tickets and/or the time zone/distance reasons make them feel somewhat removed from the league's games going on outside Perth. There's also investment reasons - there's fair arguments that Perth's love of the sport, while still by far the primary code of preference, the city loves the sport slightly less than SA, Vic and Tas.

They wouldn't care about NRL (only really in the context that an NRL may not be an AFL fan, but they wouldn't treat an NRL fan to any non-AFL fan that could be convinced to support the AFL).

Perth's population in 1997 was 1.35 million. Adelaide's in 1997 was 1.18 million. Adelaide's population is now 1.45 million. Perht's population is now 2.2 million.

I don't disagree branding distinctions and the geographical location that they will base their training and facilities (and by extension which region that they will primarily represent and play reserves/women's games in) has to be found and there isn't an obvious answer, but it makes sense to try and work through it.

 

[RedV3x]

Using Freo isn't a good comparison of what to expect for a third team.

Take politics - it's split down the middle but hardly anyone likes their party.
You'd think a third party would be a shoe-in but they always fail.

 

[glengowan]

The next expansion of AFL should be via a reformulated 2nd tier competition which includes state league teams and AFL Reserves teams.

One branch (ANFL) with two conferences (EANFL & SANFL):

VFL rebranded as Eastern ANFL (EANFL) with VFA/VFL traditions kept (JJ Liston Medal etc)
Western Bulldogs Reserves
Geelong Reserves
Box Hill (Hawthorn Reserves)
Casey (Melbourne Reserves)
Sandringham (St Kilda Reserves)
GWS Giants Reserves
Sydney Swans Reserves
Brisbane Lions Reserves
Gold Coast Suns Reserves
Southport
Port Melbourne
Williamstown
Werribee
Frankston
Coburg
Northern Bullants
New Tasmania Devlis team

Then eventually an 18th and 19th team from Canberra and Northern Queensland

Southern ANFL (SANFL) with SANFL traditions kept (Magarey Medal etc.)
Collingwood Reserves
Essendon Reserves
North Melbourne Reserves
Carlton Reserves
Richmond Reserves
West Coast Reserves
Fremantle (or Peel) Reserves
Adelaide Reserves
Port Adelaide Reserves
Glenelg
Norwood
Central District
Sturt
Woodville-West Torrens
North Adelaide
West Adelaide
South Adelaide

Then eventually an 18th and 19th team from WA and Northern Territory

Expand the AFL TPP to include all squad members of standalone teams and top up squad members for AFL Reserves teams to equalise as much as possible.

22 Rounds, with 2 Byes, so double up games against local sides or manipulated to make the AFL Reserves teams have as equal travel schedule as possible.
For example, in a season, Vic AFL Reserves sides would travel 6 times to SA and once to WA, with 13 games in their home state. SANFL sides would travel 2 or 3 times to Vic and once to WA.

All games at the traditional suburban grounds or training grounds of the AFL teams. Could double up with AFLW games in the future. Appeal to those who may prefer the suburban atmosphere over the stadium. Families with young children for example.

Future AFL teams to come via this competition and their reserves remain in these competitions should they be successful in gaining a place in the AFL. Likewise, should clubs become unable to sustain what is required of an AFL club, they could become a standalone club in this competition.

A clear national 2nd tier league with a pathway from junior football through to the AFL, powered by the finances and marketing power of the AFL. The vast majority of the standalone VFL and SANFL clubs have strong ties to when football began, many being well over a century old and well entrenched in their communities as a step above amateur and country level. The SANFL attracted 35,000 to its Grand Final this year with only standalone teams.

The two conferences could be left separated or tied together by the premiers playing off to be "ANFL" champions as a curtain raiser to the AFL Grand Final.

Standalone clubs benefit from the exposure and commercial opportunities brought about by competing with AFL clubs and players, whilst AFL clubs benefit from playing in more meaningful competitions against hungry competitors wanting to prove themselves. There are more players brought under the umbrella of the AFL. There is more content and diversity for the AFL and an opportunity for legitimate growth around the country without having the prospect of a 26 team VFL competition.

 

[Aussie in exile]

The A-League made such a massive blunder in choosing Western United and Macarthur to join the competition as there were many more better options out there like Tasmania, Canberra, Wollongong and Gold Coast.

Reckon the only reason the AFL maybe wants WA3 to happen as the 20th team is to kill off all momentum that an NRL team would have going from there initially when they enter the competition in 2027 or 2028.

In saying all that though, still think WA3 will become the 21st team by 2050, once Tasmania and hopefully Canberra gain entry into the competition in 5-10 years.

I reakon the same reason why the NRL will put another club in SE Queensland in another 8 to 10 years after the Dolphins are bedded in.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

I reakon the same reason why the NRL will put another club in SE Queensland in another 8 to 10 years after the Dolphins are bedded in.

Can totally see another SE Queensland team coming in and being located on the Western Corridor (where Lions have current training base) in 8 to 10 years time especially if the PNG team fails.

If the NRL decide on that though, I still don't want another SE Queensland team to come in the AFL and would rather the Lions and Suns to become big clubs than having 3-4 small clubs out there.

Like the Lions have become successful for 6-7 years now and crowds and support have been amazing but what will the crowds and member numbers be like if the club experiences a bad spell of poor finishes again?

Will they have a slight decline in viewership or will that go back to the dark days again?

Plus we haven't seen the Suns be successful at all since their inception so even though we are all excited to see the growth of footy in QLD right now, still got that little concern that the AFL might be tempted to put another license around that area especially if the new Vic Park stadium proposal by QLD Liberal goes through and that having an impact in numbers for the Lions again similar to the entry of the Gold Coast Suns.

 

[RedV3x]

I reakon the same reason why the NRL will put another club in SE Queensland in another 8 to 10 years after the Dolphins are bedded in.

After the Titans fail ?

 

[Bjo187]

Well you'll notice albo just poured federal tax money into a training and admin facility for the Ipswich jets worth $40 million and they aren't even in a professional competition lol.

That tells you the NRL plans for the western corridor in Brisbane, as they're worried about the afl growth there and coz of course albo is best mates with v'landy's.

Interestingly the suns facility a few years back only got $22 million in funding, despite being a professional sporting club in the biggest sport in Australia.