Player Watch #27 Thomson Dow

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docko911 said:
1. If that was such a major factor we wouldn’t be seeing so many gun/good players from that draft.
2. It does matter when the player is slow, can’t tackle, can’t kick/doesn’t kick and pretty much looks to handball even when they should kick. Dow would be lucky to have 3-4 valuable possessions a game. He’s Tom Mitchell getting 15 not 30+.
3. Unless you’re moving the chains like Cotchin, Lambert and Edward’s used to do, it matters if you’re a midfielder that doesn’t get a lot of the ball and doesn’t kick.
4. It matters if you don’t offer anything else valuable to the team. Hopper/Prestia average 4 tackles over their career, Ross has played a lot of time on the wing not inside. Martin average more the first half of his career but given he’s been the best attacking mid in the AFL over his career not a great comparison.
5. It just highlights he isn’t getting a game because of his speed/defensive running. This is usually a trait which explains lower possessions.
6. HRS is a winger so not a great comparison. SuperCoach is actually a pretty good measure of midfielders performance most of the time.

Anger isn’t the word I’d use. I would say we’ve had the opportunity to really test a youngish player at AFL level and they haven’t met the standard. The problem is he is now getting picked ahead of McAuliffe and Sonsie isn’t getting a run in the midfield to see if he can do anything.

Dow unfortunately cannot be a role player for a lot of key points I mentioned. He’s not quick, he’s not a strong tackler, and he doesn’t offer anything particularly special. He is basically inside mid or bust. Unless he’s going well in the middle he shouldn’t be in the team.

In terms of patience it should only be the remainder of the year. I’d drop him to the VFL when Hopper returns. If he can go back to VFL and absolutely dominate for a few weeks then we give him another run at AFL level to see if he can bring his game up closer to the level. If not, delist him. Same should apply to Cumbo and possibly HRS, both played like shit v Hawthorn.
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In response:

1. The answer was no one. Not a single player had that combination of factors (drafted to a premiership winning team, right before COVID, burst appendix year 3) for the first few seasons of their career. Others may have two of the three, but none had all of them. To make it worse, Dow was drafted as a midfielder and there’s a pretty handy contingent of midfielders in the team from 2020 onwards. Also the 2019 draft was not a good draft. It includes the player taken before Dow not being on an AFL list any more, and a few others immediately after. Those that have come after Dow outside of 2 or 3 are still ‘jury’s out’ players for the most part.

2. Meaningless possessions are still meaningless. Regardless of what type of player; tall/small, fast/slow, big/slight. For his lack of possessions he’s still #2 at the club for clearances, #1 midfielder for disposal efficiency, #4 in contested possessions but #1 in contested possessions per disposal; #4 in centre clearances. Also, what constitutes sufficient disposal averages if disposal per game would actually matter as a stat? 20? 24?

3. Kicks per game if you’re role is to move the ball forward. Your Short’s and Rioli’s and the like. When your job is to win the cleaneance and contested ball, those stats mean more regardless of whether it is a handball or a kick.

4. League wise tackle averages have dropped over the last 5-10 years, so 4 tackles per game early in careers isn’t relative to today. Also, the argument that because players tackled more earlier in their careers and therefore are absolved having to apply tackles to the same degree this season is a wierd one.

5. Dow’s getting a game because of his clearance and contested work coupled with the fact that we’ve had our top 3 midfielders injured for significant parts of the season. To be one of only three players to play every game (and the only mid) is mind blowing. Dow isn’t getting more possessions as his transition play is poor. Nothing to do with speed. A bit more to endurance, and something best addressed in the offseason.

6. Supercoach is a measure of an individuals stats; not a reflection on the impact a player has on a game; nor in respect the impact he has on a teams overall performance. Sorry, but using this as a measure of anything meaningful is silly.

Generally, most role players at AFL level are limited in multiple facets of the game. If they weren’t and were so well rounded, well they’d be stars and not role players. It’s yet to be determined whether Dow can overcome some of his weaknesses to a sufficient degree to be a handy role player, but it requires patience.

Considering he has improved from last season, improved within this season and that most of his flaws for improvement require focus in the off-season as opposed to in-season, patience is more than just to the ‘end of the season’. Inconsistency is the badge of most young players (which is why I personally think the suggestion that HRS who has one down game after being our best winger for the best part of 6 or 7 weeks straight is in delist territory is a bit ludicrous) and if list spots aren’t at a demand (not for us), why not give a young player who has a hook (clearance and contest work) a bit more time to figure it out.

If he doesn’t improve enough others will overtake him; he isn’t keeping McAuliffe or Sonsie out of the team (McAuliffe it’s aerobic capacity which with capped rotations is hard to cover for bulks of the season, and Sonsie has played midfield minutes as a ‘transition’ mid which is different to what Dow is doing) and the likelihood of getting some young talented midfielders with high draft picks over the next few seasons makes competition more likely next season onwards.

I don’t understand why with young players we tend to be so fixated on what they can’t do, not what they can and maybe what they could in the future.
 

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Dow is getting a game bc either or all or most of Ross, Hopper, Prestia and JGTI have been injured as well as KMac2 being overlooked for too long and mostly a sub. He’s rubbish and he has a high DE bc his handballs are an average 30cm lol and he rarely kicks it and if he does they’re 20 m passes . He would struggle to be effective in the U18 competition state teams as most of the boys would monster him and run harder and faster . He’s a bust and we have to accept it as after five years he has not progressed one iota.
 
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TigerImposter said:
Dow is getting a game bc either or all or most of Ross, Hopper, Prestia and JGTI have been injured as well as KMac2 being overlooked for too long and mostly a sub. He’s rubbish and he has a high DE bc his handballs are an average 30cm lol and he rarely kicks it and if he does they’re 20 m passes . He would struggle to be effective in the U18 competition state teams as most of the boys would monster him and run harder and faster . He’s a bust and we have to accept as after five years he has not progressed one iota.
Click to expand...

You underestimate him


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
RockJobster0312 said:
In response:

1. The answer was no one. Not a single player had that combination of factors (drafted to a premiership winning team, right before COVID, burst appendix year 3) for the first few seasons of their career. Others may have two of the three, but none had all of them. To make it worse, Dow was drafted as a midfielder and there’s a pretty handy contingent of midfielders in the team from 2020 onwards. Also the 2019 draft was not a good draft. It includes the player taken before Dow not being on an AFL list any more, and a few others immediately after. Those that have come after Dow outside of 2 or 3 are still ‘jury’s out’ players for the most part.

2. Meaningless possessions are still meaningless. Regardless of what type of player; tall/small, fast/slow, big/slight. For his lack of possessions he’s still #2 at the club for clearances, #1 midfielder for disposal efficiency, #4 in contested possessions but #1 in contested possessions per disposal; #4 in centre clearances. Also, what constitutes sufficient disposal averages if disposal per game would actually matter as a stat? 20? 24?

3. Kicks per game if you’re role is to move the ball forward. Your Short’s and Rioli’s and the like. When your job is to win the cleaneance and contested ball, those stats mean more regardless of whether it is a handball or a kick.

4. League wise tackle averages have dropped over the last 5-10 years, so 4 tackles per game early in careers isn’t relative to today. Also, the argument that because players tackled more earlier in their careers and therefore are absolved having to apply tackles to the same degree this season is a wierd one.

5. Dow’s getting a game because of his clearance and contested work coupled with the fact that we’ve had our top 3 midfielders injured for significant parts of the season. To be one of only three players to play every game (and the only mid) is mind blowing. Dow isn’t getting more possessions as his transition play is poor. Nothing to do with speed. A bit more to endurance, and something best addressed in the offseason.

6. Supercoach is a measure of an individuals stats; not a reflection on the impact a player has on a game; nor in respect the impact he has on a teams overall performance. Sorry, but using this as a measure of anything meaningful is silly.

Generally, most role players at AFL level are limited in multiple facets of the game. If they weren’t and were so well rounded, well they’d be stars and not role players. It’s yet to be determined whether Dow can overcome some of his weaknesses to a sufficient degree to be a handy role player, but it requires patience.

Considering he has improved from last season, improved within this season and that most of his flaws for improvement require focus in the off-season as opposed to in-season, patience is more than just to the ‘end of the season’. Inconsistency is the badge of most young players (which is why I personally think the suggestion that HRS who has one down game after being our best winger for the best part of 6 or 7 weeks straight is in delist territory is a bit ludicrous) and if list spots aren’t at a demand (not for us), why not give a young player who has a hook (clearance and contest work) a bit more time to figure it out.

If he doesn’t improve enough others will overtake him; he isn’t keeping McAuliffe or Sonsie out of the team (McAuliffe it’s aerobic capacity which with capped rotations is hard to cover for bulks of the season, and Sonsie has played midfield minutes as a ‘transition’ mid which is different to what Dow is doing) and the likelihood of getting some young talented midfielders with high draft picks over the next few seasons makes competition more likely next season onwards.

I don’t understand why with young players we tend to be so fixated on what they can’t do, not what they can and maybe what they could in the future.
Click to expand...

Hope your positive outlook is right. We really need the players we are investing games into to become AFL standard. Hope it’s an older Grimes / younger Grimes situation.
 
Afl_expert678 said:
Couldn’t agree more kicking will get better with experience. And to whoever said he can’t find the footy he is averaging 20+ disp
He could Evan finish top five n b&f
Why hasn’t he resigned yet do u think?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
You got your account the other day, and the only other player you have commented on aside from thomson is paddy dow. So, Mr Dow, teach your sons how to kick a footy instead of defending them on AFL forums.
 

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TigerImposter said:
Dow is getting a game bc either or all or most of Ross, Hopper, Prestia and JGTI have been injured as well as KMac2 being overlooked for too long and mostly a sub. He’s rubbish and he has a high DE bc his handballs are an average 30cm lol and he rarely kicks it and if he does they’re 20 m passes . He would struggle to be effective in the U18 competition state teams as most of the boys would monster him and run harder and faster . He’s a bust and we have to accept it as after five years he has not progressed one iota.
Click to expand...
You just don’t like him. Has shown plenty this year. If someone needs advice don’t come to imposter. He will tell you the earth is flat and the aliens coming :greenalien::cool:
 
I ran some data on a selection of players who have been predominantly mids: Anderson, Brayshaw, Serong and LDU:

Averages from game 0-40 (combining all 4… who all had similar ratio’s):

Disposals: 18.25
Goals: 0.23
GA: 0.3
Clearances: 2.88
Tackles: 3.33

Nowhere are there averages from games 40-80:

Disposals: 25.75
Goals: 0.35
GA: 0.50
Clearances: 5.35
Tackles: 4.25

And then averages from game 80+:

Disposals: 29.08
Goals: 0.43
GA: 0.63
Clearances: 6.10
Tackles: 4.6

In other words, whatever Dow is doing now he’ll be doing way more in games 40-80… and more again from game 80+.

So I think he’s shown enough to get another 12-months… if he boosts his stats the same ratio as these other players he will be a more than handy clearance midfielder for us.



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Noidnadroj said:
I ran some data on a selection of players who have been predominantly mids: Anderson, Brayshaw, Serong and LDU:

Averages from game 0-40 (combining all 4… who all had similar ratio’s):

Disposals: 18.25
Goals: 0.23
GA: 0.3
Clearances: 2.88
Tackles: 3.33

Nowhere are there averages from games 40-80:

Disposals: 25.75
Goals: 0.35
GA: 0.50
Clearances: 5.35
Tackles: 4.25

And then averages from game 80+:

Disposals: 29.08
Goals: 0.43
GA: 0.63
Clearances: 6.10
Tackles: 4.6

In other words, whatever Dow is doing now he’ll be doing way more in games 40-80… and more again from game 80+.

So I think he’s shown enough to get another 12-months… if he boosts his stats the same ratio as these other players he will be a more than handy clearance midfielder for us.



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Click to expand...
Wow. A well-thought out and researched take on Bigfooty. Wow.
 
The Cumberland Basher/Thomson Dud defender crossover will never not be hilarious...:$
 
Last edited:
Noidnadroj said:
I ran some data on a selection of players who have been predominantly mids: Anderson, Brayshaw, Serong and LDU:

Averages from game 0-40 (combining all 4… who all had similar ratio’s):

Disposals: 18.25
Goals: 0.23
GA: 0.3
Clearances: 2.88
Tackles: 3.33

Nowhere are there averages from games 40-80:

Disposals: 25.75
Goals: 0.35
GA: 0.50
Clearances: 5.35
Tackles: 4.25

And then averages from game 80+:

Disposals: 29.08
Goals: 0.43
GA: 0.63
Clearances: 6.10
Tackles: 4.6

In other words, whatever Dow is doing now he’ll be doing way more in games 40-80… and more again from game 80+.

So I think he’s shown enough to get another 12-months… if he boosts his stats the same ratio as these other players he will be a more than handy clearance midfielder for us.
Click to expand...

There's definitely players that can go before Dow, but it's not like he's super young either. Should get a 1 year contract, but he'll be 23 next year.

I'm not sure about your player comparisons either. He lacks hurt factor.

He doesn't have anywhere near the skills and speed of Anderson or Serong.

He doesn't have the bulk of LDU.

Brayshaw MAYBE is his closest like for like, but that's a real stretch.
 
Madtiger2006 said:
You just don’t like him. Has shown plenty this year. If someone needs advice don’t come to imposter. He will tell you the earth is flat and the aliens coming :greenalien::cool:
Click to expand...
Never met the lad so stop being immature. I’m only commenting on his football abilities or in this case lack of them.
 
He’s not a bull and he’s not a damaging kick at all. He’s not even a confident kick. He doesn’t even like kicking it . So he’s up against it .
Everything else looks pretty good. Don’t know though in a weak team that his elite handball is going to make up for his deficiencies in kicking .
With the right teammates around it could be a weapon for us but I don’t like his chances.
 
Danog said:
There's definitely players that can go before Dow, but it's not like he's super young either. Should get a 1 year contract, but he'll be 23 next year.

I'm not sure about your player comparisons either. He lacks hurt factor.

He doesn't have anywhere near the skills and speed of Anderson or Serong.

He doesn't have the bulk of LDU.

Brayshaw MAYBE is his closest like for like, but that's a real stretch.
Click to expand...

I’m not suggesting he will become elite. But there’d barely be a single player who reaches 80+ games whose performances from games 40-80 were worse than games 0-40. So I hear constantly ‘but he only averages 16 touches’ or ‘he gets 3 clearances a game’ etc…as though that’s where his ceiling will be.

Give or take, so did those other 4 in their first 40 games.

LDU only started reaching significant heights as a player in 2022 … which was his 6th season with 50-games under his belt heading into the season.

Adam Cerra only got beyond a 17-disposal average in his 4th season… with 58-games under his belt. He averaged 13.7 / 15.4 / 17.4 his first 3 years … then 23.1.

Or Parish? 20 / 21 / 20 / 20 / 19 / 30 / 31 …. exploded year 6 with 93 games under his belt.


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Player Watch #27 Thomson Dow

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