A six year plan

[Leon]

2 years ago we were challenging in a pre lim.

How does it all turn so bad in such a short time. I dont expect that the cats pies and saints are going to be as bad as us next year or the year after who were in the same window as us.

So why the hell are we different to them !

It's just the cycle of footy - sometimes it's a quick drop back to the pack, sometimes it's gradual. It's just taken quicker for us because our list

a) Wasn't as good as those sides you mentioned
b) Did not have as much depth as the clubs you mentioned.

But make no mistake, those sides will eventually come right back to the pack and be shit. I predict (along with mightyhawks) that the saints are next. They've hung around the edges of the final 8 longer than us because of the quality of their older crew but they have nothing coming through. I have to laugh at their delusional supporters on the main board who think they can challenge again with their current list. They need to accept that their window is over and plan for the years ahead.

Same goes for Geelong. Geelong in a few years will be like Brisbane of recent years after their three-peat = brought right back to the pack after being the powerhouse of the competition. And I would not be surprised at all to see Collingwood drop a bit next year either.

As shit as we are now, at least we are acknowledging it and taking steps towards finding the next list to take us back up the ladder again.

 

[charcoalchicken]

I have no problem with it.

Seems like the correct choice to make.

 

[Bodicifer]

It's going to be a loooooooooooooong 2013 and 2014 I reckon...

 

[Sedat!]

It's just the cycle of footy

Ah that old chestnut....the current premier has made finals in 14 of the last 17 seasons and Richmond has made finals in 2 years out of the last 30. The 'cycle of footy' is a myth used to explain/justify under-performance on the field.

For all our sakes, we all need Dalrymple to absolutely nail this draft otherwise we are in for a sustained spell of September holidays. Another Howard/Tutt/Markovic/Thorne draft and it will be a long cold decade coming up. Conversely, some savvy selections by Dalrymple and a war chest used to plunder FA in the next couple of years will get us back into contention mode soon enough.

 

[Interloper]

Ah that old chestnut....the current premier has made finals in 14 of the last 17 seasons and Richmond has made finals in 2 years out of the last 30. The 'cycle of footy' is a myth used to explain/justify under-performance on the field.

For all our sakes, we all need Dalrymple to absolutely nail this draft otherwise we are in for a sustained spell of September holidays. Another Howard/Tutt/Markovic/Thorne draft and it will be a long cold decade coming up. Conversely, some savvy selections by Dalrymple and a war chest used to plunder FA in the next couple of years will get us back into contention mode soon enough.

and off the field (planning, list management and recruitment)

 

[NBates]

Conversely, some savvy selections by Dalrymple and a war chest used to plunder FA in the next couple of years will get us back into contention mode soon enough.

Are we in danger of having multiple Callan W's in 3 years with these draftees?
I.E. Pick 'em out, give 'em an opportunity, train 'em up & they say "thanks very much for making me into a valued future champion, but they've offered me better money elsewhere" and then they piss off?

 

[McCrann]

Yes you fared badly with Ward compared to the Dees with Scully.

The problem with getting value out of someone like Lake is that only teams in contention are interested in a 31 year old and they don't have as much to offer

In the last decade both our clubs have had similar periods of success/failure. The only real difference is that you lost 3 Prelim Finals, whereas we won 2 of them

I hated going to the footy in 2002-4 as our club was doing everything wrong. However, 2005-6 were two of the most enjoyable seasons watching the Hawks get back on track and build a side for the future. With picks 5 & 6 in this years draft and hopefully another top 6 pick in next years draft, it's an exciting time for the Dogs. You are far closer to being a top 4 side again than the Saints are.

Really?

I suppose after the 2006 Finals series (In which Melbourne beat St. Kilda in an Elimination Final with Brock McLean starring) you would have said Melbourne were much closer to being a Top 4 side than St. Kilda?

What happened? Well, Melbourne has been rebuilding (fishing for draft picks) for the past 6 years (2007-2012). We went on, sacked our coach, had a year out of the finals (2007) and have been competitive ever since. Even this year had we beaten Freo at the Dome (and we were every chance of winning that game) we'd have made the finals at the expense of Fremantle and perhaps it would have been a Geelong v Hawthorn Grand Final?

I can't see the Dogs making the 8 before 2018, forget about contending. Gold Coast and GWS will be pretty good sides in 4-6 years.

Look at the retirements you have coming up! (Playing on in 2013)

Daniel Cross (30 - Age at September 30, 2013))
Daniel Giansiracusa (31)
Dale Morris (30)
Matty Boyd (31)
Robert Murphy (31)
Adam Cooney (28)
Will Minson (28)

When will these guys retire? 2013 is going to be awful for you, I think 2014 will be worse and 2015 similar. I can see real improvement beginning in 2016, and it'll take at least 2 years to be challenging for the 8 again.

How long has it taken Melbourne since their last finals appearance in 2006? Your list in a couple of years is going to have a very similar age structure to Melbourne's of a couple of years ago.

As for us, with some luck we could make finals again next year. And as for that delaying our rebuild? Well, Sydney has shown there are other ways to reboot and reload. Our top end talent has always been very good, but I saw plenty of signs this year that the players we have coming through have plenty of potential and losing Goddard has not bothered me one bit really. He's had an average 2 years and we've been a pretty darn competitive team anyway.

I challenge you guys to name when was the last time we were really blown away?

 

[100action]

Really?

I suppose after the 2006 Finals series (In which Melbourne beat St. Kilda in an Elimination Final with Brock McLean starring) you would have said Melbourne were much closer to being a Top 4 side than St. Kilda?

What happened? Well, Melbourne has been rebuilding (fishing for draft picks) for the past 6 years (2007-2012). We went on, sacked our coach, had a year out of the finals (2007) and have been competitive ever since. Even this year had we beaten Freo at the Dome (and we were every chance of winning that game) we'd have made the finals at the expense of Fremantle and perhaps it would have been a Geelong v Hawthorn Grand Final?

I can't see the Dogs making the 8 before 2018, forget about contending. Gold Coast and GWS will be pretty good sides in 4-6 years.

Look at the retirements you have coming up! (Playing on in 2013)

Daniel Cross (30 - Age at September 30, 2013))
Daniel Giansiracusa (31)
Dale Morris (30)
Matty Boyd (31)
Robert Murphy (31)
Adam Cooney (28)
Will Minson (28)

When will these guys retire? 2013 is going to be awful for you, I think 2014 will be worse and 2015 similar. I can see real improvement beginning in 2016, and it'll take at least 2 years to be challenging for the 8 again.

How long has it taken Melbourne since their last finals appearance in 2006? Your list in a couple of years is going to have a very similar age structure to Melbourne's of a couple of years ago.

As for us, with some luck we could make finals again next year. And as for that delaying our rebuild? Well, Sydney has shown there are other ways to reboot and reload. Our top end talent has always been very good, but I saw plenty of signs this year that the players we have coming through have plenty of potential and losing Goddard has not bothered me one bit really. He's had an average 2 years and we've been a pretty darn competitive team anyway.

I challenge you guys to name when was the last time we were really blown away?

Of those only Cross, Boyd, Murphy and Minson have been of value recently.

St Kilda is in much more pain when Roo, Gwilt, Gilbert, Fisher, Dal Santo, Montagna, Hayes retire. With goddard leaving i can see saints being bottom 8 next year.

 

[bornnbredbulldog]

Jeez this board is full of typical Western Bulldog supporters negative, pessimistic, whinging, whining bulls**t. We were one of the best teams in the comp for 3 years and since then have lost 100's upon 100's of games experience. Due to bad planning during the good times we're having to start from scratch now. BM and the club are doing their best, judge them in 3 years time not now, we're not getting rogered by trades this year, we're making hard short term decisions for a brighter long term future.

Give the negative bullshit a rest, it's starting to sound like a Tony Abbott press conference FFS.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Firstly, we wouldn't be in this position if we had drafted wisely six years ago, instead we have no one from 2006 on our list.

Yes, it is tough, and as optimistic as I usually am, I am finding the going tough. But...we should only have to bottom out once, if we keep sustaining our list with kids, who we are not afraid to throw in the team to play, such a Geelong and Collingwood have done, this is why they rebound so quickly, then we keep renewing our list and will never have to bottom out again.

It is ok to draft the odd player for a premiership challenge, similar to what Hawthorn have done now with Lake, but right through our premiership challenge we went for the recycles, we should have gone for kids, good kids make their mark in any team, look at Libba, Wallis, and Geelong and Collingwood's kids. The only kid we recruited that comes to mind was Ward, and look how much we miss him now.

 

[NBates]

Really?
.......
I challenge you guys to name when was the last time we were really blown away?

I hope you realise it was a Hawthorn poster who made the assertion "You are far closer to being a top 4 side again than the Saints are."

It wasn't a Bulldog poster.

 

[MightyHawks]

Really?

I suppose after the 2006 Finals series (In which Melbourne beat St. Kilda in an Elimination Final with Brock McLean starring) you would have said Melbourne were much closer to being a Top 4 side than St. Kilda?

What happened? Well, Melbourne has been rebuilding (fishing for draft picks) for the past 6 years (2007-2012). We went on, sacked our coach, had a year out of the finals (2007) and have been competitive ever since. Even this year had we beaten Freo at the Dome (and we were every chance of winning that game) we'd have made the finals at the expense of Fremantle and perhaps it would have been a Geelong v Hawthorn Grand Final?

I can't see the Dogs making the 8 before 2018, forget about contending. Gold Coast and GWS will be pretty good sides in 4-6 years.

Look at the retirements you have coming up! (Playing on in 2013)

Daniel Cross (30 - Age at September 30, 2013))
Daniel Giansiracusa (31)
Dale Morris (30)
Matty Boyd (31)
Robert Murphy (31)
Adam Cooney (28)
Will Minson (28)

When will these guys retire? 2013 is going to be awful for you, I think 2014 will be worse and 2015 similar. I can see real improvement beginning in 2016, and it'll take at least 2 years to be challenging for the 8 again.

How long has it taken Melbourne since their last finals appearance in 2006? Your list in a couple of years is going to have a very similar age structure to Melbourne's of a couple of years ago.

As for us, with some luck we could make finals again next year. And as for that delaying our rebuild? Well, Sydney has shown there are other ways to reboot and reload. Our top end talent has always been very good, but I saw plenty of signs this year that the players we have coming through have plenty of potential and losing Goddard has not bothered me one bit really. He's had an average 2 years and we've been a pretty darn competitive team anyway.

I challenge you guys to name when was the last time we were really blown away?

Hey mate... don't direct any barbs at the Dogs supporters for my assertion that they are better placed than teams like the Saints

I believe the key in list management is you need to know where you are and draft/plan accordingly.

The Dogs (pardon the french) and most of their supporters know they are rooted and are rebuilding accordingly so they will minimise the time spent outside the 8 and are attempting to rebuild into a top 4 side

My worry for your mob (St Kilda) is that you guys don't realise how screwed your situation is. Yes you didn't get smashed often this year, but all your good players are older

Ross Lyon did everything possible to try and win a flag for 3 years, and it certainly wasn't a list management issue that cost you.

However, if you really want to see the where St Kilda is relative to the Bulldogs, try and make an under 26s side for both clubs - don't forget to add in picks 5 and 6 for the Doggies too

Looking forward, I'd much prefer to be a Dogs fan than a Saints fan

And if I was a Dogs fan I'd be crossing my fingers for a sh!thouse 2013 - a top 4 pick in the 2013 draft might be the last piece in the puzzle of making the Dogs a finals team 5years in a row for 2015-2019

 

[MightyHawks]

Firstly, we wouldn't be in this position if we had drafted wisely six years ago, instead we have no one from 2006 on our list.

Yes, it is tough, and as optimistic as I usually am, I am finding the going tough. But...we should only have to bottom out once, if we keep sustaining our list with kids, who we are not afraid to throw in the team to play, such a Geelong and Collingwood have done, this is why they rebound so quickly, then we keep renewing our list and will never have to bottom out again.

It is ok to draft the odd player for a premiership challenge, similar to what Hawthorn have done now with Lake, but right through our premiership challenge we went for the recycles, we should have gone for kids, good kids make their mark in any team, look at Libba, Wallis, and Geelong and Collingwood's kids. The only kid we recruited that comes to mind was Ward, and look how much we miss him now.

I'm not so sure... I think Aker and Bazza were good gambles that just didn't work. Barry was probably one year too late

My worry for us with Brian Lake is it'll be too little too lake as well. Could've used him in the last 2 years

Not everyone is a 2008 Stuart Dew recruit, but if you're in the window then go for it. Pies would never have got into a Grand Final without recruiting Jolly and Ball. Yes Jetta for the Swans will be better than Jolly was for the Pies, but the trade was Win-Win for both

For the Dogs, nows the time to go all out for kids, draft wisely, build a team and then top it up when you're a top 6 side

 

[Mutt]

I'm not so sure... I think Aker and Bazza were good gambles that just didn't work. Barry was probably one year too late

My worry for us with Brian Lake is it'll be too little too lake as well. Could've used him in the last 2 years

Not everyone is a 2008 Stuart Dew recruit, but if you're in the window then go for it. Pies would never have got into a Grand Final without recruiting Jolly and Ball. Yes Jetta for the Swans will be better than Jolly was for the Pies, but the trade was Win-Win for both

For the Dogs, nows the time to go all out for kids, draft wisely, build a team and then top it up when you're a top 6 side

You are making waaayyy too much sense to fit in around here at the moment MightyHawks. A few of us have lost our heads.

Thanks for the input on here - interesting to hear your views. It's great to have others come on our board not to troll, but to genuinely exchange views.

 

[McCrann]

I hope you realise it was a Hawthorn poster who made the assertion "You are far closer to being a top 4 side again than the Saints are."

It wasn't a Bulldog poster.

Fair enough. In case it came off like it - I'm not deluded, I'm not expecting anything great from us for 2-3 years, but I do expect us to be competitive in this period - which means not dropping below perhaps 12th/13th and less than 7-8 wins.

I think our kids show potential, and yours do too, but given our lists I expect ours will mature 1-2 years more quickly given they're playing in a better team.

I live in hope that I can be surprised on the upside (As i definitely was in 2008/09/10) - we lost a heap of experience leading into those years - Rob Harvey, Fraser Gehrig, Aaron Hamill, Heath Black and a bunch of others, but we kept at it and a good coach turned us into what (IMO should have been) a Premiership winning team.

But, of course, we are St. Kilda and we don't win the bloody things.

 

[Beasley]

Fair enough. In case it came off like it - I'm not deluded, I'm not expecting anything great from us for 2-3 years, but I do expect us to be competitive in this period - which means not dropping below perhaps 12th/13th and less than 7-8 wins.

I think our kids show potential, and yours do too, but given our lists I expect ours will mature 1-2 years more quickly given they're playing in a better team.

I live in hope that I can be surprised on the upside (As i definitely was in 2008/09/10) - we lost a heap of experience leading into those years - Rob Harvey, Fraser Gehrig, Aaron Hamill, Heath Black and a bunch of others, but we kept at it and a good coach turned us into what (IMO should have been) a Premiership winning team.

But, of course, we are St. Kilda and we don't win the bloody things.

At least you have had the opportunity to watch your team play in a Grand Final!

 

[MightyHawks]

You are making waaayyy too much sense to fit in around here at the moment MightyHawks. A few of us have lost our heads.

Thanks for the input on here - interesting to hear your views. It's great to have others come on our board not to troll, but to genuinely exchange views.

Don't worry I can troll with the best of them if need be... some Tigers fans love me

 

[MightyHawks]

Fair enough. In case it came off like it - I'm not deluded, I'm not expecting anything great from us for 2-3 years, but I do expect us to be competitive in this period - which means not dropping below perhaps 12th/13th and less than 7-8 wins.

I think our kids show potential, and yours do too, but given our lists I expect ours will mature 1-2 years more quickly given they're playing in a better team.

I live in hope that I can be surprised on the upside (As i definitely was in 2008/09/10) - we lost a heap of experience leading into those years - Rob Harvey, Fraser Gehrig, Aaron Hamill, Heath Black and a bunch of others, but we kept at it and a good coach turned us into what (IMO should have been) a Premiership winning team.

But, of course, we are St. Kilda and we don't win the bloody things.

So you're expecting to finish between 8th and 13th for the next 3 years... and then you'll probably slide lower once the Big Sook, Lenny, Milne, Montagna etc retire.

Yes i would bet that the Saints will finish higher on the ladder than the Dogs in 2013 and 2014 - no question.

But it seems we agree then that the Dogs are closer to playing in a Preliminary Final than the Saints are.

 

[Mutt]

Don't worry I can troll with the best of them if need be... some Tigers fans love me

Oh I've noticed!

 

[Leon]

Ah that old chestnut....the current premier has made finals in 14 of the last 17 seasons and Richmond has made finals in 2 years out of the last 30. The 'cycle of footy' is a myth used to explain/justify under-performance on the field.

For all our sakes, we all need Dalrymple to absolutely nail this draft otherwise we are in for a sustained spell of September holidays. Another Howard/Tutt/Markovic/Thorne draft and it will be a long cold decade coming up. Conversely, some savvy selections by Dalrymple and a war chest used to plunder FA in the next couple of years will get us back into contention mode soon enough.

You've used two extreme examples that are the exception to the rule.

Sydney are the benchmark in terms of how to rebuild and Richmond are the benchmark of how not to do it. Generally no clubs can rebuild as well as Sydney and no one can do it as badly as Richmond, although Melbourne are certainly giving it a fair shake and Richmond themselves look like they're finally getting their act together.

General rule is you have you spend some time building your list, you have your window, then you slide and do it all again.

 

[blowesy]

Challenging for a premiership is different too being competitive! 6 years may be what it takes! It's almost a certainty we will be bottom 4 for the next 2 years at least...then you start pushing towards the 8! Before then being a genuine flag threat! Its a cycle, and anyone annoyed at Mccarthy, I don't believe he was the man who traded out all our picks/mid-aged players! Still rapt theyre trying to build a list and not pick up fill in players

 

[inflames1919]

Fair enough. In case it came off like it - I'm not deluded, I'm not expecting anything great from us for 2-3 years, but I do expect us to be competitive in this period - which means not dropping below perhaps 12th/13th and less than 7-8 wins.

I think our kids show potential, and yours do too, but given our lists I expect ours will mature 1-2 years more quickly given they're playing in a better team.

I live in hope that I can be surprised on the upside (As i definitely was in 2008/09/10) - we lost a heap of experience leading into those years - Rob Harvey, Fraser Gehrig, Aaron Hamill, Heath Black and a bunch of others, but we kept at it and a good coach turned us into what (IMO should have been) a Premiership winning team.

But, of course, we are St. Kilda and we don't win the bloody things.

That is honestly the worst reasoning I have ever heard. How will them playing in a better team make them mature quicker? Wouldn't kids playing in a worse off team having to bare more responsibility being thrown into the deep end mature alot quicker? You are seriously overrating your list and will be in for a rude awakening in years to come.

 

[MightyHawks]

Oh I've noticed!

I might be making friends with Saints fans quickly too if they read this thread

 

[Super Hans]

Wallis - Libba - Dalhaus - Smith - Howard - Jones - Tutt - Cordy - Hunter - Talia - Roughead - JJ - Fletcher-Roberts

This is what will get me through the tough patch of 2012 - 2015.

Its going to be long, but draft well and we will be back. Add say O'Rourke and Stringer, plus our other 5 (excluding Hunter) top 50 picks this year, then pick 1-4 (I think we will finish above GWS, Dees and Port) plus the same a year after.. Will help us big time. We just need Cordy and Jones to get confidence and become solid players.

Zaine Cordy and Josh Wallis also hopefully kick on to become good f/s choices.

We also have great teachers at the club, Murphy + Morris down back, Cross + Boyd in mids, Gia up forward. These guys have a great amount of knowledge to share. Just need to draft well, be patient and all will be well.

 

[Sedat!]

General rule is you have you spend some time building your list, you have your window, then you slide and do it all again.

Geelong have been perennnial finals performers since 2004. St Kilda since 2004 and only missed out this year due to the ineptness of 5 bottom teams dragging the rest of the competition up an extra 1-2 wins. Collingwood have been in the thick of the action since 2006. Adelaide and West Coke were both perennial finalists for a number of years in the mid 2000's, dropped away for 1-2 years and both have returned to contention very quickly. Melbourne have been very poor for years, ditto Port Adelaide so it's not just Richmond. There really is no set 'general rule' in reality.