Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[glenashley]

All good lads..

Put the house on GWS next week.

Win secured.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

After we beat north there were 5 games that we needed one result to go our way to make it.

The blues to lose to WCE. Well that did not happen now there are four.

The dogs beat GWS or

The saints beat the blues or

Port beat Freo or'

North beat the Hawks

 

[Scott Tracy]

If it wasn't anymore obvious the AFL loves Collingwood......

"So, if the Pies beat Melbourne by 100 points and the Blues lose to the Saints by 100, the great steal could be on."

I haven't even edited that lol, thats taken straight from the article. Although if I may add I would absolutely love to see this situation happen.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Obviously just win.

Though there is a small chance we could have a spot already secured before the bounce if the Roos upset the Hawks.

Either way, if we lose to the Giants. It will be a veryyyy long Sunday as a fan. Have to watch the next two matches to see if the result goes in our favor. A long 9 hours worth of football.

 

[Doggy]

Obviously just win.

Though there is a small chance we could have a spot already secured before the bounce if the Roos upset the Hawks.

Either way, if we lose to the Giants. It will be a veryyyy long Sunday as a fan. Have to watch the next two matches to see if the result goes in our favor. A long 9 hours worth of football.

Just win like you said.

They only beat us in Ballarat last year when we lost 2 players.

Smashed them at their home ground earlier this year.

It's really containing Hogan and Greene which isn't easy but that's really it

 

[adogsfan5]

This is bringing bad memories back from 2021 when the lions scraped into the top 4 over us in the final round.

Please just get us into the finals boys!!

 

[revo333]

It would be brutal if we lost and freo won for us to miss.

13 wins and a % of 124 should really be enough.

I know 6 teams that will be cheering if Freo and Blues make it instead of us, but only ourselves to blame if that happens.

 

[Hoges64]

After watching the Eagles today, Geelong will beat them by 100 points

After watching THOSE Eagles, who also have an absolutely appalling record at Alphabet Stadium, I think Geelongs VFL team would beat them by 100 points.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

It would be brutal if we lost and freo won for us to miss.

13 wins and a % of 124 should really be enough.

Not many years that you get three dreadful teams though.

There'll be years that the third-worst team this year is worse than the worst team in other years, thus those three teams pinch a few wins and even 12 wins might be enough to make finals. Bottom 3 teams only will have 10 wins between them. Compare to (e..g) 2017 where the bottom 3 had 17 wins between them, from 22 and not 23 games each.

 

[Angak]

It would be brutal if we lost and freo won for us to miss.

13 wins and a % of 124 should really be enough.

Carlton would also need beat the Saints. In saying that I think there is at least a 30% chance we don't make the eight. GWS game is like a final.

 

[bullish23]

Despite the excellent form the last couple of months, its just mind boggling this team has to beat the 3rd place side to secure a top 8 spot.

 

[RWnBluey]

Despite the excellent form the last couple of months, its just mind boggling this team has to beat the 3rd place side to secure a top 8 spot.

That’s what happens when you butcher the first half of the season

 

[Chicago1]

If our game was scheduled any earlier on Sunday, I'd have to have a breakfast burrito for my lucky meal. I'm usually not even out of bed at 12:30 on a Sunday. The sacrifices we make for this team!

On SM-A135F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Guido]

I, for some unknown reason, can see Essendon playing out of their skins against an innacurate Brisbane. And can also see St Kilda beating Carlton. Which, with a win against GWS, would potentially give us a home final at the 'G against Freo.

But I didn't factor in that Hawthorn would then almost certainly be hosting Brisbane at the 'G in that scenario.

In which case as the second Melbourne based game, and with a 55,000 "expected crowd" threshold, we'd probably be a 50/50 chance to play them at Marvel. Compared to being forced to play Adelaide at the 'G in 2015, would things play out differently this time with the conflict of interest around the AFL owning the stadium?

 

[Dog 36]

Something that I really hope is not forgotten by the club and more specifically the playing group is by winning this week not only do we secure finals but a home final something we have not had since really 2015. Yes 2016 we got to play a couple in Melbourne.

Yes we have made finals but with Covid and where we have finished we supporters have not had home finals since 2016.

C’mon Dogs get it done!

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I, for some unknown reason, can see Essendon playing out of their skins against an innacurate Brisbane. And can also see St Kilda beating Carlton. Which, with a win against GWS, would potentially give us a home final at the 'G against Freo.

But I didn't factor in that Hawthorn would then almost certainly be hosting Brisbane at the 'G in that scenario.

In which case as the second Melbourne based game, and with a 55,000 "expected crowd" threshold, we'd probably be a 50/50 chance to play them at Marvel. Compared to being forced to play Adelaide at the 'G in 2015, would things play out differently this time with the conflict of interest around the AFL owning the stadium?

Our win over North was so large, that it actually means that we jump Brisbane on percentage on the rare case if they get another draw vs Essendon and we win. Obviously any given game being a draw is highly unlikely, but at least we put another minor permutation to our advantage.

 

[Libbaaaa]

I, for some unknown reason, can see Essendon playing out of their skins against an innacurate Brisbane. And can also see St Kilda beating Carlton. Which, with a win against GWS, would potentially give us a home final at the 'G against Freo.

But I didn't factor in that Hawthorn would then almost certainly be hosting Brisbane at the 'G in that scenario.

In which case as the second Melbourne based game, and with a 55,000 "expected crowd" threshold, we'd probably be a 50/50 chance to play them at Marvel. Compared to being forced to play Adelaide at the 'G in 2015, would things play out differently this time with the conflict of interest around the AFL owning the stadium?

Brissy losing, Freo winning and the Saints winning would result in us v. Dockers and Hawks .v Lions.

 

[The Inbetweener]

I, for some unknown reason, can see Essendon playing out of their skins against an innacurate Brisbane. And can also see St Kilda beating Carlton. Which, with a win against GWS, would potentially give us a home final at the 'G against Freo.

But I didn't factor in that Hawthorn would then almost certainly be hosting Brisbane at the 'G in that scenario.

In which case as the second Melbourne based game, and with a 55,000 "expected crowd" threshold, we'd probably be a 50/50 chance to play them at Marvel. Compared to being forced to play Adelaide at the 'G in 2015, would things play out differently this time with the conflict of interest around the AFL owning the stadium?

We could draw GWS or GC and the AFL would still make us play at the MCG.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

We could draw GWS or GC and the AFL would still make us play at the MCG.

Especially if it's the only game in Melbourne, for the week, because you'd have MCC and AFL members going as neutrals (as well as just other neutrals) going to bump up the crowd.

In any case, I'm a bit surprised at the doubting that we'd get a good crowd in reaching 70,000 if we played a home final at the MCG against an interstate team, especially as it may again be the only Melbourne game for that week of finals, even with minimal away support from GWS or GC. We got 60,000 in 2015 vs. Adelaide, and we have more members and bigger crowds generally. I'd anticipate that our Dogs fans would come out in force.

 

[hutchy31]

Carlton would also need beat the Saints. In saying that I think there is at least a 30% chance we don't make the eight. GWS game is like a final.

To rely on the saints and/or Port would be nauseating, hope the boys can do the job at Ballarat and we can watch those games stress-free.

If you think there’s a 30% chance (or thereabouts) then you can get around $8 that we don’t make it which is closer to 12%. I’m not advocating gambling but I’m on at $6 and $8 that we miss, to soften the blow and pay for my Belgian beer and Woodford Reserve binge on Sunday night……

 

[Optimistic Dog]

If the cats beat the eagles by around 80 points they will have a better percentage than the giants. So by winning the giants would risk a trip to play Port in Adelaide or by losing they get a home state final against a so/so swans.

 

[bobs head soup]

Last year coming into R24 we had to win (tick) and then rely on Carlton beating GWS (cross) to make finals.

This year we have to beat GWS or hope that Carlton (or Freo) lose.

That's an odd symmetry.

 

[Dog 36]

Last year coming into R24 we had to win (tick) and then rely on Carlton beating GWS (cross) to make finals.

This year we have to beat GWS or hope that Carlton (or Freo) lose.

That's an odd symmetry.

More importantly we are in control of our own destiny but I can see your point.

 

[Angak]

If you think there’s a 30% chance (or thereabouts) then you can get around $8 that we don’t make it which is closer to 12%. I’m not advocating gambling but I’m on at $6 and $8 that we miss, to soften the blow and pay for my Belgian beer and Woodford Reserve binge on Sunday night……

I've placed a bet on us to miss @9.50 just in case I need cash to drown my sorrows

 

[Dog 36]

Not sure why we are favourites vs GWS

They are where they are on the ladder for a reason, they have beaten us in Ballarat and was only a week ago we put in a shocker vs Adelaide, they were a kick a way from a GF last year and GWS travels okay