Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[Hoges64]

They might still win but not having any of Curnow, McKay & TDK is likely a bridge too far.

The Blues board have talked about going in with Lewis Young as their SOLE tall forward. They’ll probably push McGovern forward with Motlop, Hollands & Owies. It’s not a lot of scoring firepower.

Obviously not final team / line-up but they've listed both McGovern and Young down back to start with. Will be interesting to see what their final side is, Cooper Lord the only "debutant" for them this week, so that rules out medium forward Ashton Moir and key forward Harry Lemmey from their final side.

 

[Golden_6]

Obviously not final team / line-up but they've listed both McGovern and Young down back to start with. Will be interesting to see what their final side is, Cooper Lord the only "debutant" for them this week, so that rules out medium forward Ashton Moir and key forward Harry Lemmey from their final side.

They seem to think McGovern forward with one of Young or Kemp as support. That gives them 2 tall forwards and 2 tall defenders. Either way, certainly not ideal.

That WCE side is reasonably ‘strong’ and mature too. Only 4 players under 21 in their starting 18 (Reid, Ginbey, Hough & Dewar) so they’re still fighting it out at this stage of the season. They have nothing to lose by winning so I’d be disappointed if they couldn’t get over the line.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

So we are gunning for West Coast over Carlton, Sydney over Essendon, and Richmond over Hawks this week? If two of those happen we can't miss finals if we beat North.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

So we are gunning for West Coast over Carlton, Sydney over Essendon, and Richmond over Hawks this week? If two of those happen we can't miss finals if we beat North.

Lions over Pies too.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Lions over Pies too.

Think that one doesn't matter. Would be on same points but way behind on percent

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Think that one doesn't matter. Would be on same points but way behind on percent

It matters if we lose both games and Coll wins both games.

For peace of mind, I'd love to see:

• Syd beat Ess
• Bris beat Coll

therefore knocking both out of the finals. No way Hawks will lose, so we just need to win, and then sit back and watch Eagles v Blues. An Eagles win locks us into the finals. A Blues win means squeaky bum time next Sunday.

 

[hutchy31]

It matters if we lose both games and Coll wins both games.

For peace of mind, I'd love to see:

• Syd beat Ess
• Bris beat Coll

therefore knocking both out of the finals. No way Hawks will lose, so we just need to win, and then sit back and watch Eagles v Blues. An Eagles win locks us into the finals. A Blues win means squeaky bum time next Sunday.

I think Essendon will win tonight, but they’ll definitely lose to the lions next week. So win on Sunday v North and they won’t pass us.

Pies are out of it if we beat North, they’d have to win both by massive margins to pass us.

Carlton are the danger but they’re decimated, can’t see them winning both games even though they’re against bottom teams.

So basically we need to beat North to make finals, or lose to them and beat GWS in Ballarat.

If we can’t win one of the next two games (and particularly this Sunday) then we have absolutely no business being near finals. And if we lose the last three games of the season from a strong position - again - then surely we have a new coach next year because that’d be unacceptable.

I think we’ll win both and finish 6th or 7th. We’ll see.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

That's one down (Essendon). Just need Blues or Hawks to lose now and us to beat North then we are in.

Would prefer not to have a stressful week and game V GWS.

 

[Dog 36]

I think we will need to win both games

Would not be surprised if Dogs vs GWS winner and loser decides who makes the 8

 

[Next Waiting]

I think we will need to win both games

Would not be surprised if Dogs vs GWS winner and loser decides who makes the 8

If Carlton lose tomorrow and we beat Norf both we and GWS make it. No team can change it. Unless we go down by 100+ to GWS the following week, we can lose and it won't matter.

Carn the Eagles.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

If Carlton lose tomorrow and we beat Norf both we and GWS make it. No team can change it. Unless we go down by 100+ to GWS the following week, we can lose and it won't matter.

Carn the Eagles.

We’d want to ensure a MCG elimination ….

 

[Next Waiting]

We’d want to ensure a MCG elimination ….

Ideally yes. The unlikely dream scenario is that the Lions lose their next 2, Carlton lose, Freo beat GWS today but lose to Port next week and we win both ours.

If all that happens, we're playing Sydney in Sydney in a QF

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Could get Freo at the MCG if Dogs win both.

 

[fred cook]

We want Adelaide to beat Port now.

 

[Dogs Rule]

So what's next? I've made myself cross eyed with ladder predictors.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

We want Adelaide to beat Port now.

I think it's a real chance

 

[Dog 36]

If GWS can’t finish 2nd I wonder if they would like to finish 4th and play Sydney in Sydney

With Lions losing the top 4 maybe settled all that’s left is the order of it provided Port and Cats win tonight.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Win 2 = guaranteed MCG elimination final
Win 1 = need Hawks to lose one OR Blues to lose one OR Port to beat Freo to lock in finals.

That’s my reckoning.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Is that Geelong fan going to pop in this thread again tonight?

 

[Next Waiting]

Win 2 = guaranteed MCG elimination final
Win 1 = need Hawks to lose one OR Blues to lose one OR Port to beat Freo to lock in finals.

That’s my reckoning.

That's my reckoning too. Can't see the Hawks losing any, the Blues could lose both and Freo could certainly lose. Freo losing opens the door for both the Pies and Carlton.

Carlton's match against the Weagles today has finals implications for 5 teams. The Weagles supporter base is about 250k strong today. The entire Freo supporter base, ours, the Pies and Hawks are cheering the Weagles on. Carlton are friendless, as it should be.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Win both and have the eagles beat Geelong next week the only way into top 4 I think

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Win both and have the eagles beat Geelong next week the only way into top 4 I think

Need Lions to lose too

 

[glenashley]

Am I correct in saying that with a win today and a loss to blues this arvo and we're guaranteed finals, worst case 8th spot?

Looks like Hawks will beat the tigers.

Our % is pretty much unassailable - they would need a 200+ point turnaround in the final round.

As in we need to lose by 20 goals and they will need to also win final round by 20 goals (actually more required but CBF working out the exact numbers).

 

[The Inbetweener]

Am I correct in saying that with a win today and a loss to blues this arvo and we're guaranteed finals, worst case 8th spot?

Looks like Hawks will beat the tigers.

Our % is pretty much unassailable - they would need a 200+ point turnaround in the final round.

As in we need to lose by 20 goals and they will need to also win final round by 20 goals (actually more required but CBF working out the exact numbers).

Yep Blues lose today and we are in.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Am I correct in saying that with a win today and a loss to blues this arvo and we're guaranteed finals, worst case 8th spot?

Looks like Hawks will beat the tigers.

Our % is pretty much unassailable - they would need a 200+ point turnaround in the final round.

As in we need to lose by 20 goals and they will need to also win final round by 20 goals (actually more required but CBF working out the exact numbers).

Yep, Collingwood or Carlton would need to win by record margins next week to get past us.

I don’t think all of Freo, Hawthorn and Carlton are likely to win next week so we’re probably reasonably safe, but best to put it beyond doubt.