AFL 2014 Ladder Predictions

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My predictions after round 2
1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. West Coast
4. Port Adelaide
5. Geelong
6. Essendon
7. Gold Coast
8. Richmond
9. North Melbourne
10. Carlton
11. Sydney
12. Collingwood
13. Adelaide
14. Bulldogs
15. Brisbane
16. St Kilda
17. GWS
18. Melbourne
ladderround2.jpg

I think I should have hawks on 21 wins, must have skipped a tab. more than likely though those top 3 teams will lose 1-2 more games. I pretty much just picked them over every other team.

West Coast and Freo 1 a piece. Essendon/WC 1 a piece, Essendon/Freo 1 a piece. Hawks to lose to the Dockers in perth, and maybe West Coast. But like I said, middle tier teams I posted as losses.
Our losses being Essendon/WC/Freo/Hawks/Geelong
 
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Pretty sure herald sun classed ours as the hardest. Mainly for the fact we aren't that good to start off with but get Fremantle, Geelong, Richmond, North and Gold Coast two times.
Ouch! I note that you play the bottom 5 teams from last year a combined 6 times, which is one more than us, but still not anything to write home about, so it does look like you have a tough draw.
 
With all respect, they beat Melbourne, who really should have won with the number of scoring shots, and also won by 7 points against GWS again with more scoring shots.

St Kilda are pretty average, just got really lucky
No we didn't. Of Melbourne's 15 behinds, 8 were from kicks from outside 50m, mostly on angles (and 3 were touched before crossing the line), two were from kicks from about 48m out on 45degree angles, two were from rushed snaps around the body from next to, or very near the boundary line and one was rushed through after a soccer kick from a few inches from the boundary line, next to the behind post.

That's 13 of their 15 behinds that were from positions where you have a very low % chance of scoring a goal and of course 2 of their 6 goals were also from kicks from outside 50m, so I think it's very fair to say that while Melbourne may have had more scoring shots than us, it doesn't really matter when you're having them from spots that you are very unlikely to kick a goal from. For them to have won, they would have to have kicked the equivalent of about 5 goals from outside 50m. Good luck with that as a poorly skilled side! :D

It would be like playing a basketball game where you're just taking shot after shot from outside the 3 point line, or from "almost impossible" spots, while the other team take the time to work the ball into more dangerous spots, but as a result have less shots, because the deeper you go the more chance there is that the other team will intercept the ball, as they are protecting those more dangerous areas much more. You will score goals if you get through them though.

As for yesterday, like last week, we basically stopped trying to score for the last 15 minutes or so of the game and just basically looked to defend our lead from that point and as a result, GWS were able to score quite a few points in that last few minutes, but again most of them were not from dangerous spots, because we had by that stage stacked our defence, which made it very hard for them to score goals.

The fact that we had stacked our defence meant that when we inevitably won the ball when it entered their forward 50, we then had no-one to kick it to when we tried to clear it out of there and GWS had a wall of 3 or 4 across the centre line who could then pump it back into their forward 50, but where it would again be met by our wall of 3 or so spare inside their F50 and as a result they found it very hard to kick a goal, with it being so crowded and all. That went on for most of the last 15 or even 20 minutes of the game and as a result GWS were able to rack up the points, but struggled to kick a goal.

Mission accomplished, as it was all we needed to do to ensure the win. It was far different to most of the earlier parts of the game when GWS generally had a very open forward line and as a result were able to score goals relatively easily and like us, were very accurate.

So, very lucky my ass. It's called good defence and not letting the other team have many shots for goal from dangerous spots, something I dare say Richardson has been teaching us to do all summer and something that half our team learned very well how to do under Ross Lyon. They can have about as many shots for goal as they like as long as they're from long range, on tight angles, or under a lot of pressure, as long as we kick more when we go down the other end, which we did in both these games.
 
No we didn't. Of Melbourne's 15 behinds, 8 were from kicks from outside 50m, mostly on angles (and 3 were touched before crossing the line), two were from kicks from about 48m out on 45degree angles, two were from rushed snaps around the body from next to, or very near the boundary line and one was rushed through after a soccer kick from a few inches from the boundary line, next to the behind post.

That's 13 of their 15 behinds that were from positions where you have a very low % chance of scoring a goal and of course 2 of their 6 goals were also from kicks from outside 50m, so I think it's very fair to say that while Melbourne may have had more scoring shots than us, it doesn't really matter when you're having them from spots that you are very unlikely to kick a goal from. For them to have won, they would have to have kicked the equivalent of about 5 goals from outside 50m. Good luck with that as a poorly skilled side! :D

It would be like playing a basketball game where you're just taking shot after shot from outside the 3 point line, or from "almost impossible" spots, while the other team take the time to work the ball into more dangerous spots, but as a result have less shots, because the deeper you go the more chance there is that the other team will intercept the ball, as they are protecting those more dangerous areas much more. You will score goals if you get through them though.

As for yesterday, like last week, we basically stopped trying to score for the last 15 minutes or so of the game and just basically looked to defend our lead from that point and as a result, GWS were able to score quite a few points in that last few minutes, but again most of them were not from dangerous spots, because we had by that stage stacked our defence, which made it very hard for them to score goals.

The fact that we had stacked our defence meant that when we inevitably won the ball when it entered their forward 50, we then had no-one to kick it to when we tried to clear it out of there and GWS had a wall of 3 or 4 across the centre line who could then pump it back into their forward 50, but where it would again be met by our wall of 3 or so spare inside their F50 and as a result they found it very hard to kick a goal, with it being so crowded and all. That went on for most of the last 15 or even 20 minutes of the game and as a result GWS were able to rack up the points, but struggled to kick a goal.

Mission accomplished, as it was all we needed to do to ensure the win. It was far different to most of the earlier parts of the game when GWS generally had a very open forward line and as a result were able to score goals relatively easily and like us, were very accurate.

So, very lucky my ass. It's called good defence and not letting the other team have many shots for goal from dangerous spots, something I dare say Richardson has been teaching us to do all summer and something that half our team learned very well how to do under Ross Lyon. They can have about as many shots for goal as they like as long as they're from long range, on tight angles, or under a lot of pressure, as long as we kick more when we go down the other end, which we did in both these games.

Too long, glossed over, I do understand your point though, GWS game, I did just look at the numbers. But I did watch the Melbourne game, and I could count at least 5 times where Melbourne missed set shots, or on the run clear shots at goal. Melbourne really would be kicking themselves for losing that game, they should have won.

I think its important to realize, no Dawes, no Clarke. Those guys would have made the difference. One commentator said, put rewoldt in melbournes forward line and they win. I can't see you guys going too far.
 
The other issue I have with the Saints is they are an injury to one player away from being non competitive. Similar to if Gold Coast had of lost Gary Ablett in their first couple of years if the Saints lose a Riewoldt or he gets shut down heavily then they are finished. He has carried that side so far. I don't think the other spoon contenders are so reliant on one player.
 
The other issue I have with the Saints is they are an injury to one player away from being non competitive. Similar to if Gold Coast had of lost Gary Ablett in their first couple of years if the Saints lose a Riewoldt or he gets shut down heavily then they are finished. He has carried that side so far. I don't think the other spoon contenders are so reliant on one player.
This is like Adelaide, They have some really good guys at the top. but poor depth

Shut Dangerfield down, and Sloane is left on his own.

Take Riewoldt out of that side and St Kilda won't win a game.
 
No we didn't. Of Melbourne's 15 behinds, 8 were from kicks from outside 50m, mostly on angles (and 3 were touched before crossing the line), two were from kicks from about 48m out on 45degree angles, two were from rushed snaps around the body from next to, or very near the boundary line and one was rushed through after a soccer kick from a few inches from the boundary line, next to the behind post.

That's 13 of their 15 behinds that were from positions where you have a very low % chance of scoring a goal and of course 2 of their 6 goals were also from kicks from outside 50m, so I think it's very fair to say that while Melbourne may have had more scoring shots than us, it doesn't really matter when you're having them from spots that you are very unlikely to kick a goal from. For them to have won, they would have to have kicked the equivalent of about 5 goals from outside 50m. Good luck with that as a poorly skilled side! :D

It would be like playing a basketball game where you're just taking shot after shot from outside the 3 point line, or from "almost impossible" spots, while the other team take the time to work the ball into more dangerous spots, but as a result have less shots, because the deeper you go the more chance there is that the other team will intercept the ball, as they are protecting those more dangerous areas much more. You will score goals if you get through them though.

As for yesterday, like last week, we basically stopped trying to score for the last 15 minutes or so of the game and just basically looked to defend our lead from that point and as a result, GWS were able to score quite a few points in that last few minutes, but again most of them were not from dangerous spots, because we had by that stage stacked our defence, which made it very hard for them to score goals.

The fact that we had stacked our defence meant that when we inevitably won the ball when it entered their forward 50, we then had no-one to kick it to when we tried to clear it out of there and GWS had a wall of 3 or 4 across the centre line who could then pump it back into their forward 50, but where it would again be met by our wall of 3 or so spare inside their F50 and as a result they found it very hard to kick a goal, with it being so crowded and all. That went on for most of the last 15 or even 20 minutes of the game and as a result GWS were able to rack up the points, but struggled to kick a goal.

Mission accomplished, as it was all we needed to do to ensure the win. It was far different to most of the earlier parts of the game when GWS generally had a very open forward line and as a result were able to score goals relatively easily and like us, were very accurate.

So, very lucky my ass. It's called good defence and not letting the other team have many shots for goal from dangerous spots, something I dare say Richardson has been teaching us to do all summer and something that half our team learned very well how to do under Ross Lyon. They can have about as many shots for goal as they like as long as they're from long range, on tight angles, or under a lot of pressure, as long as we kick more when we go down the other end, which we did in both these games.
Saints got lucky.
 
Not trolling here but from looking at St Kilda's fixture I can't honestly see them winning a game for the rest of the year... May have a chance against the bulldogs in round 21 but that's it really...
Of course they will win another game. They may not start favourites for any games and they mightn't be my tip again, but they'll win again.
 

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ladderround2.jpg

I think I should have hawks on 21 wins, must have skipped a tab. more than likely though those top 3 teams will lose 1-2 more games. I pretty much just picked them over every other team.

West Coast and Freo 1 a piece. Essendon/WC 1 a piece, Essendon/Freo 1 a piece. Hawks to lose to the Dockers in perth, and maybe West Coast. But like I said, middle tier teams I posted as losses.
Our losses being Essendon/WC/Freo/Hawks/Geelong

So you think Essendon will only lose 1 more game out of the next 20..... You must be taking the piss.
 
Too long, glossed over, I do understand your point though, GWS game, I did just look at the numbers. But I did watch the Melbourne game, and I could count at least 5 times where Melbourne missed set shots, or on the run clear shots at goal. Melbourne really would be kicking themselves for losing that game, they should have won.
Very much disagree.

I just finished watching the R1 replay a couple of nights ago, after having also seen most of the game live on TV as well and paid very close attention to where Melbourne's shots were from when they kicked their points, as I've seen so many say how "lucky" we were and I jotted down where all their points came from and like I said, 13 of their 15 points came from either 48m out or further (with the two from 48m out being on 45deg angles and the rest from outside 50m, most on angles), or from snaps or soccer kicks, on, or very near the boundary.

The likelihood of kicking most of those goals is very low, hence them missing them and there sure as shit weren't 5 that anyone would say they "should have kicked", if they had a close look at them. The two from 48m out on 45deg angles are worse than 50/50 likelihood statistically I'd expect and the rest are just "hit and hope" pretty much, with 3 not even making the distance (and being touched/rushed over) and as I said, two of their 6 goals were already from kicks from outside 50m, so to expect them to nail more than that from those sort of spots is very ambitious.

Nathan Jones missed one from 40m out on a 45 deg angle that you could definitely argue he "should have kicked" as it would be about a 50/50 shot and Pederson missed a "sitter" running into goal, but we also missed some gettable goals on the night, including Billings running into an open goal and hitting the post from 3m out, which "cancels out" Pedersons sitter miss and I'm sure we would have missed at least one equivalent to Jones' miss, amongst our 8 behinds. And don't forget we still won by 17 points, it's not like we only won by a couple. We also didn't really even bother trying to score in that last 15 minutes, as we just chose to protect the lead we had by throwing numbers back into defence and so-on, so I dare say we had more up our sleeves if we needed it.

Melbourne's shots for goal were from here there and everywhere and it's no surprise at all that they missed most of them.

I think its important to realize, no Dawes, no Clarke. Those guys would have made the difference. One commentator said, put rewoldt in melbournes forward line and they win.
Please get serious, you don't get to just swap one guy from one team into the other like in a junior footy game to even it up and we were missing 1800 games (the equivalent of 9 "200 gamers") and 1300 goals experience from our last game in 2013 to that game against Melbourne in R1 (some are obviously gone now, but the rest were unavailable for selection) and as has been widely acknowledged we were without our current 3 best "mids" and also our best "key defender" (who between them have won 6 B&F's, made 6 AA teams and won a Norm Smith Medal), all of whom are far better than someone like Dawes, who is very average at football.

I
I can't see you guys going too far.
No one is suggesting that we are going far, we're just in the early stages of a rebuild, but we're going to be a lot more competitive this year than most expected, all things being equal.
 
Very much disagree.

I just finished watching the R1 replay a couple of nights ago, after having also seen most of the game live on TV as well and paid very close attention to where Melbourne's shots were from when they kicked their points, as I've seen so many say how "lucky" we were and I jotted down where all their points came from and like I said, 13 of their 15 points came from either 48m out or further (with the two from 48m out being on 45deg angles and the rest from outside 50m, most on angles), or from snaps or soccer kicks, on, or very near the boundary.

The likelihood of kicking most of those goals is very low, hence them missing them and there sure as shit weren't 5 that anyone would say they "should have kicked", if they had a close look at them. The two from 48m out on 45deg angles are worse than 50/50 likelihood statistically I'd expect and the rest are just "hit and hope" pretty much, with 3 not even making the distance (and being touched/rushed over) and as I said, two of their 6 goals were already from kicks from outside 50m, so to expect them to nail more than that from those sort of spots is very ambitious.

Melbourne's shots for goal were from here there and everywhere and it's no surprise at all that they missed most of them.

Please get serious, you don't get to just swap one guy from one team into the other like in a junior footy game to even it up and we were missing 1800 games (the equivalent of 9 "200 gamers") and 1300 goals experience from our last game in 2013 to that game against Melbourne in R1 (some are obviously gone now, but the rest were unavailable for selection) and as has been widely acknowledged we were without our current 3 best "mids" and also our best "key defender" (who between them have won 6 B&F's, made 6 AA teams and won a Norm Smith Medal), all of whom are far better than someone like Dawes, who is very average at football.

No one is suggesting that we are going far, we're just in the early stages of a rebuild, but we're going to be a lot more competitive this year than most expected, all things being equal.

So you don't think 3/15 is likely then? I'd be willing to say on a good day you could get 5-6/15, Melbourne just had a terrible run.

That comment came from the commentators. Do you really think you would have won without Riewoldt. The guy is one of the best forwards in the competition and was in fine form. What I'm saying, is if Melbourne had didn't have such a shit day with kicking, they would have won, and if they had Dawes and Clarke, they would have won easily.

BTW that point about missing 1800 games is irrelevant, those guys are gone forever. Dawes and clarke are just out. We're talking about your current team, not the one you had.

And your last comment, Your team hasn't surprized me, I think you got lucky, and you probably should have been 0-2, and I don't think you'll win many more for the rest of the year. Five at the most.


BTW I really like and rate, Eli, Billings and Dunstan. You have a good list of players for the future right there.
 
The other issue I have with the Saints is they are an injury to one player away from being non competitive. Similar to if Gold Coast had of lost Gary Ablett in their first couple of years if the Saints lose a Riewoldt or he gets shut down heavily then they are finished. He has carried that side so far. I don't think the other spoon contenders are so reliant on one player.

Umm, St Kilda had injuries/suspensions to Jack Steven (2013 b&F winner), Leigh Montagna, Lenny Hayes, Sam Fisher and Adam Schneider and still managed to win in Round 1.
 
Umm, St Kilda had injuries/suspensions to Jack Steven (2013 b&F winner), Leigh Montagna, Lenny Hayes, Sam Fisher and Adam Schneider and still managed to win in Round 1.
You fell over the line against one of the worst teams ever, because you were carried by 1 player. That's exactly my point.
 
I'll wait to see if Essendon can repeat their thrilling wins over in the West again this season.
They were two of the best games of the year.

Saying that, I haven't checked the fixture to see if they are even going over there...
 
I wish all Collingwood supporters thought that as it will make their failure even more enjoyable.

Top 8 = maybe
Top 4 = you're on drugs
Not really should win the next 3 (Geelong, Richmond, North) be 4-1 and up and away.

Disclaimer: Not convinced Collingwood are better than Geelong thou. They seem to beat us when it matters thou the last few times we always seem to get them at a good time when they are right or the plucking. Same this week 6 day break off the heat in Brisbane with Geelong 2-0 and cruising with the pies desperate and a crucial finals like intensity game.
 
Not really should win the next 3 (Geelong, Richmond, North) be 4-1 and up and away.

Disclaimer: Not convinced Collingwood are better than Geelong thou. They seem to beat us when it matters thou the last few times we always seem to get them at a good time when they are right or the plucking. Same this week 6 day break off the heat in Brisbane with Geelong 2-0 and cruising with the pies desperate and a crucial finals like intensity game.
Not sure if serious? If you are, your kidding yourself if you think Collingwood will beat Geelong and Richmond atm, North will be 50-50
 

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AFL 2014 Ladder Predictions

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