AFL 2014 ROUND 1

[hayes]

Betstar and Topsport both have $2 powerlines. Topsport's are better, though, given they allow an extra $100 on them.

TAB has an OK promotion with bets refunded on first goal scorer markets if a FF kicks the first goal. As per usual, though, you will have to find odds that are generous to make it worthwhile. You can usually find 2-3 players slightly over the odds.

Cheers. Relatively new to punting as I used to just do it recreationally until a few months ago so not sure which agencies do what.

 

[hayes]

Found this site on twitter. If you go to betting offers you can see who's doing what specials.

http://au.freebets.com

They're also worth following if you're on twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/aufreebets

 

[happy_eagle]

There are valid arguments for both Melbourne and St Kilda winning
Will stay away

Having a quick look at some Total Points markets

Magpies/Freo line is 172.5
These sides playing at Etihad over the last few years, have usually scored around 90 each. Game might be higher scoring than a usual Freo game

GWS/Syd line is 185.5
Wouldn't be surprised if its higher. Skoda has been proven an easy ground to score at. Both teams have decent forward lines and scoring power.

Gold Coast/Rich line is 179.5
Lower i'd say (depending on weather of course). Gold Coast dont concede huge scores up at Metricon these days.

Port/Carlton line is 193.5
This for me is too high. Sure the game is at Etihad, but Carlton don't have the attacking power, and aren't usually the team to score a huge total.

 

[happy punter]

Dockers -4.5 over Magpies @ 1.92 (3 units)
Dockers 40+ over Magpies @ 6.20 (0.5 unit)

 

[banana_bus]

There are valid arguments for both Melbourne and St Kilda LOSING
Will stay away

EFA

1.53 is just ridiculous for the Dees right now, complete overreaction by the betting agencies.

Dees midfield is nothing to write home about if Richo can get the best out of his kids for this game they'll win.

Maybe they can put Riewoldt into the middle lol.

 

[onlyoneleft]

EFA

1.53 is just ridiculous for the Dees right now, complete overreaction by the betting agencies.

Dees midfield is nothing to write home about if Richo can get the best out of his kids for this game they'll win.

Maybe they can put Riewoldt into the middle lol.

I tend to agree - the omissions are far more glaring for melb. making the saints at 2.50 a damn good punt

 

[onlyoneleft]

There are valid arguments for both Melbourne and St Kilda winning
Will stay away

Having a quick look at some Total Points markets

Magpies/Freo line is 172.5
These sides playing at Etihad over the last few years, have usually scored around 90 each. Game might be higher scoring than a usual Freo game

GWS/Syd line is 185.5
Wouldn't be surprised if its higher. Skoda has been proven an easy ground to score at. Both teams have decent forward lines and scoring power.

Gold Coast/Rich line is 179.5
Lower i'd say (depending on weather of course). Gold Coast dont concede huge scores up at Metricon these days.

Port/Carlton line is 193.5
This for me is too high. Sure the game is at Etihad, but Carlton don't have the attacking power, and aren't usually the team to score a huge total.

what agency are you referring to having trouble finding one?

 

[happy_eagle]

what agency are you referring to having trouble finding one?

Sportsbet

 

[onlyoneleft]

Sportsbet

cheers

 

[GROTTO]

Dockers -4.5 over Magpies @ 1.92 (3 units)
Dockers 40+ over Magpies @ 6.20 (0.5 unit)

Where did you get those prices at?

Dockers line has moved to -7.5 paying $1.92 and 40+ has tightened to $5 at Sportsbet.

 

[The GOAT]

Where did you get those prices at?

Dockers line has moved to -7.5 paying $1.92 and 40+ has tightened to $5 at Sportsbet.

I got Freo @ -4.5 too. It was prior to Reid and White being 'likely' outs

 

[GROTTO]

I got Freo @ -4.5 too. It was prior to Reid and White being 'likely' outs

Freo line will probably drift further out, once they are confirmed outs for the game.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Freo line will probably drift further out, once they are confirmed outs for the game.

pretty sure they have been confirmed.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

outs that is.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Fremantle have advantages all around the ground, load up.

 

[Jatz]

Fremantle have advantages all around the ground, load up.

Yep, agreed. Think the 40+ margin @5's is huge value.

 

[gfhawthorn]

Freo under 40
Tigers under 40
Blues under 40
Sydney 40+

17s

 

[GROTTO]

Freo in the past two seasons:

They have only beaten one Top 8 team over 40.

They have not beaten a Top 8 team away over 40

They have beaten just 3 teams away over 40.

*edit

 

[Jatz]

Freo in the past two seasons:

They have only beaten one Top 8 team over 40.

They have not beaten a Top 8 team away.

They have beaten just 3 teams away over 40.

All interesting. Ross did indicate he wanted them kicking higher scores though. Under 1-39 is the smart bet. Don't mind the value at 40+ though.

 

[GROTTO]

All interesting. Ross did indicate he wanted them kicking higher scores though. Under 1-39 is the smart bet. Don't mind the value at 40+ though.

Conversely the Pies over the past 2 seasons:

Have lost 6 games over 40 - 4 against top 8 teams at home (only lost the one game by a traveling non-Victorian team)

 

[hayes]

All interesting. Ross did indicate he wanted them kicking higher scores though. Under 1-39 is the smart bet. Don't mind the value at 40+ though.

I've heard that every year since 2007.

 

[The_Doctor]

All interesting. Ross did indicate he wanted them kicking higher scores though. Under 1-39 is the smart bet. Don't mind the value at 40+ though.

Lol i thought GROTTO was talking to himself for a minute

 

[GROTTO]

Lol i thought GROTTO was talking to himself for a minute

LOL. So did I.

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

Freo in the past two seasons:

They have only beaten one Top 8 team over 40.

They have not beaten a Top 8 team away.

They have beaten just 3 teams away over 40.

Geelong, QF1 2013?

 

[X_box_X]

Freo in the past two seasons:

They have only beaten one Top 8 team over 40.

They have not beaten a Top 8 team away.

They have beaten just 3 teams away over 40.

I thought Geelong made Finals in 2012 and 2013. This gives me a strong feeling they finished top eight. I could definitely be wrong, and I am happy to be proven wrong if you can provide evidence of this.