Zevon
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AFL 2022 GRAND FINAL
GEELONG V SYDNEY
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 24TH 2:30PM AEST (MCG)
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TEAMS
CATS
B: J.Kolodjashnij, S.De Koning, J.Bews
HB: M.Duncan, T.Stewart, J.Henry
C: M.Blicavs, J.Selwood, Z.Tuohy
HF: B.Close, J.Cameron, I.Smith
F: T.Stengle, T.Hawkins, G.Rohan
FOL: R.Stanley, P.Dangerfield, C.Guthrie
I/C: Z.Guthrie, G.Miers, T.Atkins, M.Holmes
EMG: B.Parfitt, M.O’Connor, S.Menegola, J.Ceglar
IN: None
OUT: M.O’Connor (Medi-Sub)
SWANS
B: D.Rampe, T.McCartin, O.Florent
HB: J.Lloyd, P.McCartin, N.Blakey
C: J.McInerney, C.Warner, C.Mills
HF: W.Hayward, S.Reid, I.Heeney
F: E.Gulden, L.Franklin, T.Papley
FOL: T.Hickey, J.Rowbottom, L.Parker
I/C: R.Clarke, D.Stephens, H.McLean, R.Fox
EMG: L.McDonald, H.Cunningham, B.Campbell, W.Gould
IN: H.McLean
OUT: L.McDonald (omitted), B.Campbell (Medi-Sub)
The AFL Grand Final returns to Victoria for the first time since 2019 as the Cats prepare to meet the Swans in the big dance.
Recent Form
After a huge scare in week one against Collingwood, the Cats enjoyed a week off and then did things considerably easier as they blew away a disappointing Brisbane to canter into the grand final. Geelong couldn't have been more impressive after half time as they romped away to a 71 point win. A barnstorming performance from Patrick Dangerfield was the catalyst for Geelong, while Tom Hawkins and Tyson Stengle were important contributors with 7 goals between them.
Sydney dispatched with reigning premier Melbourne in week one to enjoy a week off themselves, then copped a Collingwood scare of their own when just barely holding on in the preliminary final to scrape through by a point. In a fairly even team performance, Callum Mills and young gun Errol Gulden were particularly good for the victors.
The Cats enter the grand final on the back of an outstanding streak of 15 straight wins, while the Swans have won 9 straight of their own.
Last time they met...
You'll need to go all the way back to round 2 to find the most recent game between these sides, so the form out of that game is probably of limited use. For the record, it was won comfortably by the Swans on a night that will be remembered more for Lance Franklin's 1,000th goal than anything else.
Grand Final History
Neither side has been a stranger to Grand Final day in recent years, with 5 appearances between them since 2011. Surprisingly though, they have never squared off in a VFL/AFL grand final together. That changes this week.
Geelong's last grand final appearance was only 2 years ago, a 31 point defeat at the hands of Richmond in the 2020 decider, the first ever held outside Victoria. It was a disappointing end to Gary Ablett Jnr's career as the Cats led by as much as 22 points in the second term but couldn't hold off a strong finishing Tigers.
Sydney's last grand final appearance came in 2016 when they couldn't overcome a Bulldogs side that was on its way to breaking a 62 year premiership drought. Franklin, Josh Kennedy and Dayne Rampe played fine games in a losing cause, but it's a loss that still cuts particularly deeply for most Swans fans for reasons that it's best not to go into here.
Key Matchups
Tom Hawkins vs Tom McCartin - The big fella Hawkins was as strong a presence as always in the preliminary final. He booted four goals and could have had a couple more after missing a few in the first half. McCartin will have his work cut out on the Geelong superstar, but if he can somehow manage to quell his influence and allow his brother Paddy some freedom to intercept then it would set the Swans up well.
Jeremy Cameron vs Dayne Rampe - The other member of perhaps the best key forward pairing in the competition, Jezza was solid in the preliminary final without really tearing the game apart. Rampe did a fine job when these two sides met back in round 2 - keeping the Geelong spearhead goalless - although Cameron did still have several shots and racked up 17 disposals. This one could go a long way to deciding the outcome.
Patrick Dangerfield vs Callum Mills - "Turning back the clock" is a tired old cliché at times, but that's exactly what Dangerfield did in his preliminary final performance. The old champ is oft-maligned in BigFooty circles, but he tore Brisbane to shreds as he chalked up 28 touches and drifted forward to kick a couple of goals. Mills won't have the speed to match him around the ground but you sense that their battle in close will be pivotal.
Lance Franklin vs Jack Henry - This was the matchup back in round 2 when Buddy kicked 4 goals to become the only 1,000 goal forward to still be playing. Henry has the height and athleticism to match up well on Lance despite conceding those 4 goals last time. This could very well be Franklin's last game, and while he's certainly not the force of old, this matchup should still be a beauty.
Tom Stewart vs.... anyone?? Just kidding, Ryan Clarke should get the job on the gun Geelong backman. Leaving Stewart free to rack up intercept marks for fun is a recipe for disaster, as many opposition teams have discovered this year. Surely John Longmire and the Sydney coaching staff will be too smart to let that happen... won't they?
Where it will be won
Well this isn't rocket science, but the midfield battle is going to be rather important. Both sides have big bodied midfielders that aren't afraid to get their hands dirty, so the battle of Dangerfield, Guthrie, Selwood, Blicavs and co vs Parker, Mills, Warner, Rowbottom etc will be significant.
Both sides (well probably any AFL side really) defend best when their midfield is denying the opposition quality entries. Particularly in the Swans case, you have to wonder if Rampe and the McCartins would be able to stop the likes of Cameron, Hawkins, Stengle, Close and Miers if their midfield is struggling to prevent the ball coming in cleanly.
The Swans might gain a slight advantage in the ruck with the journeyman Tom Hickey taking on Rhys Stanley... will this translate into midfield supremacy?
Prediction
In the interests of being impartial, I'll refrain from tipping an outcome here.
Ah screw it. Swans by 30
Let me know how wrong I am below...
