Autopsy AFL 2024 Second Semi Final - Port v Hawks Fri Sept 13th 7:40pm EST/7:10pm CST (AO) Teams in OP

[Mr Meow]

Dusty's 300th and Dusty kicks the 1st goal and the entire stadium goes into meltdown.

Hawks dont even blink.

Id say their heads are in the right spot.

Port should still win because they are the better team and have more experience.

But if we start quick Port may be the ones to drop their shoulders.

The team that are favourites and the form team of the comp should win. That's Hawthorn.

The plucky underdog narrative doesn't fit any more.

 

[SC_Power]

What about finals?

It takes a special club to lose a home final by 14 goals. Hawthorn for example, in 100 seasons has never managed that amazing feat. For a club to that after just 28 years in the premier competition is elite

More power to the SA media drivel too

And you’ll possibly win by that much again this week too.

Doesn’t mean the narrative coming into finals wasn’t Vic centric.
It always is.
It always will be.
Ignore or excuse the bad, promote or highlight the good.

And with the AFL’s help along the way, the premiership streak Vic clubs are on over the last 2 decades continues without question.

 

[SC_Power]

The team that are favourites and the form team of the comp should win. That's Hawthorn.

The plucky underdog narrative doesn't fit any more.

It’s funny that.

Hawks fans “We’re are the form team and the best team and our opponents are a shambles and coming off a horror loss and are mentally weak….. oh and were underdogs and it’s a free hit”

 

[SC_Power]

Just disgruntled Port fans hoping he ships off into the sunset.

#1 hope is shipping Hawthorn into the sunset
#2 consolation prize if we don’t is shipping Ken off.

 

[HairyO]

It’s funny that.

Hawks fans “We’re are the form team and the best team and our opponents are a shambles and coming off a horror loss and are mentally weak….. oh and were underdogs and it’s a free hit”

We were expected to finish bottom 4 by almost everyone. We've been missing our FF and FB all year too.

Of course its a free hit.

 

[Xtreme]

We were expected to finish bottom 4 by almost everyone. We've been missing our FF and FB all year too.

Of course its a free hit.

If this was a pinball machine we're on our last ball.... and by some miracle we activated multiball...... so we've got 4 balls flying around at once

 

[Mr Meow]

We were expected to finish bottom 4 by almost everyone. We've been missing our FF and FB all year too.

Of course its a free hit.

The free hit idea based on pre-season expectation is different to "Port should win", which was your statement.

One day out from a semi final, Port Adelaide are the underdogs. So "Hawks should win". It's quite a simple concept.

Nobody had big hopes for Geelong 2007 or Richmond 2017 after both missed finals and looked in no man's land the previous season. By the time they were playing knockout finals, they were basically the form teams of the comp. They didn't just magically get underdog status because they were written off before the season started.

 

[StackedHunch]

The free hit idea based on pre-season expectation is different to "Port should win", which was your statement.

One day out from a semi final, Port Adelaide are the underdogs. So "Hawks should win". It's quite a simple concept.

Nobody had big hopes for Geelong 2007 or Richmond 2017 after both missed finals and looked in no man's land the previous season. By the time they were playing knockout finals, they were basically the form teams of the comp. They didn't just magically get underdog status because they were written off before the season started.

Had we not choked twice, we'd have been top four, and now likely awaiting a prelim. That's where we'd be expected to win. Instead, we're in yet another elimination final after nearly two months of constant effectively elimination finals. I think people recognise the pressure on a young team is likely to have an impact in September. Especially given the injuries to our KPB, KPF and best mid.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It’s funny that.

Hawks fans “We’re are the form team and the best team and our opponents are a shambles and coming off a horror loss and are mentally weak….. oh and were underdogs and it’s a free hit”

We have the second youngest list in the comp, so we’re not meant to be this good yet and we’re not meant to have good depth.

Playing finals was a bonus, and touching up the dogs an added one, going any deeper is going to be an absolute dream, particularly with the injuries we’ve copped in recent weeks.

 

[DogDaySonny]

The team that are favourites and the form team of the comp should win. That's Hawthorn.

The plucky underdog narrative doesn't fit any more.

Facts.

 

[DogDaySonny]

We have the second youngest list in the comp, so we’re not meant to be this good yet and we’re not meant to have good depth.

Playing finals was a bonus, and touching up the dogs an added one, going any deeper is going to be an absolute dream, particularly with the injuries we’ve copped in recent weeks.

But we are this good. And now the boys are going to take what’s their’s.

 

[Mr Meow]

Had we not choked twice, we'd have been top four, and now likely awaiting a prelim. That's where we'd be expected to win. Instead, we're in yet another elimination final after nearly two months of constant effectively elimination finals. I think people recognise the pressure on a young team is likely to have an impact in September. Especially given the injuries to our KPB, KPF and best mid.

Hawthorn supporters adding a reference to missing players doesn't suddenly earn them underdog status.

The emergence of Dear has made the Sam/Jordy hybrid at full forward redundant. You can argue he'd replace Chol but prior to last week Chol had been good. Otherwise, the Mozzy fleet suits Hawthorn perfectly and is also tailor made for finals footy. Mitch Lewis isn't a big miss.

The Snowman has been in good stopping form but he would likely just be taking an impotent gorilla in Dixon. One that 38 year old wingman Blicavs handled just fine last week. It would be a different story if Hawthorn were taking on Geelong or GWS' marking forwards.

Day is a big miss but the Hawks midfield have proven superb and dominant without him. If they could boss Footscray's midfield, they can do the same to the one Geelong torched after being called the worst midfield in the comp all season.

Whereas if we now look at Port, removing their gun back flankers has made their slingshot game and ball movement completely stagnant. Devoid of class or incision.

Butters obviously didn't like receiving a knock last week, what happens if he cops another one? Question marks are there for him now.

Port's home ground advantage is diluted, as the relationship with Hinkley is off. They go quiet or turn on the team rather quickly. If Hawthorn get a hot start and Watson is handed a broomstick in the first quarter, the crowd could turn.

Port are can pull it off but make no mistake, it would be: a) a backs to the wall win and b) an upset. It's pointless pretending otherwise.

 

[Xtreme]

Hawthorn supporters adding a reference to missing players doesn't suddenly earn them underdog status.

We are the most underdog team that has ever underdogged an underdog situation

Greatest underdog team of all time even!

 

[Mr Meow]

We have the second youngest list in the comp, so we’re not meant to be this good yet and we’re not meant to have good depth.

Playing finals was a bonus, and touching up the dogs an added one, going any deeper is going to be an absolute dream, particularly with the injuries we’ve copped in recent weeks.

This is an objectively terrible way to look at things. Port have important injuries and zero confidence, with this match looming as a coach killer.

Hawthorn are the hottest team in the comp now, with the best form line, and just belted the second best form team. Let's not dance around the fact: they are taking on finals chokers who are scared in this format.

There is no "but but the people said we would be bottom 4, I said we should aim for finals, but now that we are looking incredible and the neutrals believe, I will lower expectations".

 

[StackedHunch]

Hawthorn supporters adding a reference to missing players doesn't suddenly earn them underdog status.

The emergence of Dear has made the Sam/Jordy hybrid at full forward redundant. You can argue he'd replace Chol but prior to last week Chol had been good. Otherwise, the Mozzy fleet suits Hawthorn perfectly and is also tailor made for finals footy. Mitch Lewis isn't a big miss.

The Snowman has been in good stopping form but he would likely just be taking an impotent gorilla in Dixon. One that 38 year old wingman Blicavs handled just fine last week. It would be a different story if Hawthorn were taking on Geelong or GWS' marking forwards.

Day is a big miss but the Hawks midfield have proven superb and dominant without him. If they could boss Footscray's midfield, they can do the same to the one Geelong torched after being called the worst midfield in the comp all season.

Whereas if we now look at Port, removing their gun back flankers has made their slingshot game and ball movement completely stagnant. Devoid of class or incision.

Butters obviously didn't like receiving a knock last week, what happens if he cops another one? Question marks are there for him now.

Port's home ground advantage is diluted, as the relationship with Hinkley is off. They go quiet or turn on the team rather quickly. If Hawthorn get a hot start and Watson is handed a broomstick in the first quarter, the crowd could turn.

Port are can pull it off but make no mistake, it would be: a) a backs to the wall win and b) an upset. It's pointless pretending otherwise.

Good analysis, and I do expect the boys will win tomorrow... but eventually you're going to lose one of these 75% chance games. In isolation favourites, but it won't be a disaster if they have a stinker...not like they've been up there for years and choking in September like their opposition.

 

[Mr Meow]

Good analysis, and I do expect the boys will win tomorrow... but eventually you're going to lose one of these 75% chance games. In isolation favourites, but it won't be a disaster if they have a stinker...not like they've been up there for years and choking in September like their opposition.

The match against Sydney - if Hawthorn make it - is one I'd have more expectations for "a bridge too far" (although the Swans played 3 average quarters last week).

I'm only tipping Hawthorn by 10 points so of course that means I haven't written off Port completely. More just writing off any label as underdogs. To be honest I am still more worried about Port not turning up, than Hawthorn, in my hopes for a close game.

 

[StackedHunch]

The match against Sydney - if Hawthorn make it - is one I'd have more expectations for "a bridge too far" (although the Swans played 3 average quarters last week).

I'm only tipping Hawthorn by 10 points so of course that means I haven't written off Port completely. More just writing off any label as underdogs. To be honest I am still more worried about Port not turning up, than Hawthorn, in my hopes for a close game.

Yeah, I'll be a lot less confident at the SCG than AO. Still, imagine another Hawks v Cats GF. Tbh I'd be a lot happier for the Cats if they beat us than I would have a decade ago.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

This is an objectively terrible way to look at things. Port have important injuries and zero confidence, with this match looming as a coach killer.

Hawthorn are the hottest team in the comp now, with the best form line, and just belted the second best form team. Let's not dance around the fact: they are taking on finals chokers who are scared in this format.

There is no "but but the people said we would be bottom 4, I said we should aim for finals, but now that we are looking incredible and the neutrals believe, I will lower expectations".

Yeah that’s all fair, I expected us to be better than 0-5, I argued vehemently that all sides apart form Roos and Eagles should have been aiming to win enough games to play finals in 2024, and that we had the talent to get us there if we had a decent run with injury.
That being said finals was an absolute bonus for us, and while I’ll take the wins and enjoy the ride my expectation was not that we would go this deep into finals should we have made it… but yes, the whole “why not us” mantra is an enjoyable one to hear from the players alongside the “form team” gushing.

None of that will matter when the ball is bounced though, and the players still have to get over a team that should be smarting from last week.

 

[Whiskers]

The match against Sydney - if Hawthorn make it - is one I'd have more expectations for "a bridge too far" (although the Swans played 3 average quarters last week).

I'm only tipping Hawthorn by 10 points so of course that means I haven't written off Port completely. More just writing off any label as underdogs. To be honest I am still more worried about Port not turning up, than Hawthorn, in my hopes for a close game.

Yep this is the difference, it’s more likely port don’t turn up mentally to play. Watching hawks show up each week has me more confident in their ability than most other sides.
I’m looking forward to this game, how will port respond? Hawks are going to bring what we bought to the table last week.
Port have enough talent to win but I think the hawks style is more suited to finals footy.
They say the game is 90% above the shoulders, this game is certainly that.

 

[HairyO]

The free hit idea based on pre-season expectation is different to "Port should win", which was your statement.

One day out from a semi final, Port Adelaide are the underdogs. So "Hawks should win". It's quite a simple concept.

Nobody had big hopes for Geelong 2007 or Richmond 2017 after both missed finals and looked in no man's land the previous season. By the time they were playing knockout finals, they were basically the form teams of the comp. They didn't just magically get underdog status because they were written off before the season started.

Top 4 teams almost always win the Semi. Its rare that the Elimination winner backs up again and makes the Prelim.

 

[hawkman]

Yeah, I'll be a lot less confident at the SCG than AO. Still, imagine another Hawks v Cats GF. Tbh I'd be a lot happier for the Cats if they beat us than I would have a decade ago.

The Vicbias thread might be quiet for a few months if it happens. Imagine 2 Vic clubs winning at AO and another at the SCG in finals to get to the GF

 

[Mr Meow]

Top 4 teams almost always win the Semi. Its rare that the Elimination winner backs up again and makes the Prelim.

Yep always. Like the two QF losers in 2023, one of them in 2022, one of them in 2021, one of them in 2019, one of them in 2018 and one of them in 2016.

The top 4 teams ALWAYS win the semi, no doubt about it.

Please try to think.

 

[hawkman]

Yep always. Like the two QF losers in 2023, one of them in 2022, one of them in 2021, one of them in 2019, one of them in 2018 and one of them in 2016.

The top 4 teams ALWAYS win the semi, no doubt about it.

Please try to think.

Pre finals bye has accelerated a trend that started in 2014. Before that it happened once between 2002 and 2013

 

[hawkinoz]

We were expected to finish bottom 4 by almost everyone. We've been missing our FF and FB all year too.

Of course its a free hit.

From memory, most pundits had us for Wooden spoon. Even Hodge. They all felt North would get talent boost and Eagles would win more games at home.

Did a search here, could not find the spoon predictions thread.

Port have lost almost all drive off half back, maybe this open up a chance for some unknown to step up, if not this could be carnage.

 

[hawkman]

From memory, most pundits had us for Wooden spoon. Even Hodge. They all felt North would get talent boost and Eagles would win more games at home.

Did a search here, could not find the spoon predictions thread.

Port have lost almost all drive off half back, maybe this open up a chance for some unknown to step up, if not this could be carnage.

Not sure Burton out is the worst thing for Port. His mobility would have been an issue against our forward line