Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - What do we do, we don't have a top 10 pick?

[Milanista28]

Tigers have to be a chance to trade out . They will not be wanting to take 8 or so picks . Not so much early but some days n the teens if the do not look to trade with North.

They'll have 1st pick on night 2 (24), if there are sliders they may get big offers for it. I'd expect them to use 6 selections on night 1 and trade 2 for an extra 1st and 2nd in 2025.

 

[jannissary]

i'd keep an eye on shanhan if he drops, looked impressive from the small amount i saw of the VFL.

 

[bombreys]

Ideally it would have been but do we have a definitive answer on Cox Reid Perkins Hobbs ?
We will also have a better idea on Tsatas.
Not ideal but it is what it is.

I get what you are saying, but at what stage does that come to an end? This time next year are we going to be saying that 2026 will be a sit back and assess the list-year so we can see where the likes of Hayes and Lual are at?

Not trying to be negative, I just think at some point you to either have to go let's have a bit of a crack at it with these young guys - or alternatively you cut your losses and start again.

Zach Reid, as an example, will be 23 by Round 1. A lot of these guys, whilst still young, aren't exactly kids any more. He's almost 5 years older than a Levi Ashcroft. Reid's obviously a rare case with a big asterisk next to his name, but the fact remains.

I suppose if we keep our draft hand as is and none/not many of those younger guys come on, we do have two first rounds picks next year to start again.

As you've said, maybe it kind of just is what it is at this stage - it just feels like we Essendon fans seem to say that a lot.

 

[Vindicater]

Problem is we really need to wait for Kako to trade back in.

I would be talking to Richmond about either pick 10 or 11 if Kako is still on the board. Offer up the Melbourne 1st. Then we can still use the picks later to match Kako.allows Richmond to hold a strong next year as well and allows us to grab a top talent.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I'd love to do a cheeky deal with Saints here to get them onside and then talk to Richmond about trading back in around 10-11 to get them onside too. Cause if Kako gets past Richmond we could trade out those second rounders and match him with our picks after 40.

 

[jdstorm]

I get what you are saying, but at what stage does that come to an end? This time next year are we going to be saying that 2026 will be a sit back and assess the list-year so we can see where the likes of Hayes and Lual are at?

Not trying to be negative, I just think at some point you to either have to go let's have a bit of a crack at it with these young guys - or alternatively you cut your losses and start again.

Zach Reid, as an example, will be 23 by Round 1. A lot of these guys, whilst still young, aren't exactly kids any more. He's almost 5 years older than a Levi Ashcroft. Reid's obviously a rare case with a big asterisk next to his name, but the fact remains.

I suppose if we keep our draft hand as is and none/not many of those younger guys come on, we do have two first rounds picks next year to start again.

As you've said, maybe it kind of just is what it is at this stage - it just feels like we Essendon fans seem to say that a lot.

For me it comes when you have a deep balanced list and better players pushing for those spots.

We’re getting close to that but aren’t quite there yet.

As disappointing as some of these players are they are still better then most non afl listed VFL players

 

[Mercurial89]

Some sound points, but how many more years are we going to need to see 'where the list is at'? Isn't that was 2023 & 2024 were about. There seems to be a constant them of 'let's wait until next year'. At some stage, 'this year' needs to be the year we start taking action. This year's draft, which is from all accounts the deepest and best quality of recent times, seems as reasonable time as any to start planning for the now.

I agree that there has been delays, but this is the cost of not taking decisive action earlier and not seeing how the young players we do have go at the senior level in their preferred position.
It's the cost of not playing guys, of playing them out of position, injuries and senior players who were known clogging up minutes and opportunity.

so now, in a year where we had sweet FA capital it lines up that a player will eat a bid, the best play we have is to push assets to the future, still collect our first round talent, commit to properly exploring the list and then being absolutely decisive with what we need, who we don't etc.

Pushing capital into this year is going to be incredibly costly and we simply don't have the spots to actually view the list whilst still adding the young talent.
When I say spots I mean opportunity and role.

We don't know our forward setup, we don't know if Reid, cox or Perkins are good enough, we don't know about Tsatas, we don't know our forward setup, we don't even know our best midfield mix (fans do, the club don't). We don't know our ruck setup.

Unfortunately the cost of being indecisive and too conservative leads to situations like this where this is exactly the time to actually be conservative, the risk being that impatience wins out and pushes you further back by burning through capital trying to chase a dream premium draft hand your not entitled to, and have no real idea what you need.

 

[ant555]

I get what you are saying, but at what stage does that come to an end? This time next year are we going to be saying that 2026 will be a sit back and assess the list-year so we can see where the likes of Hayes and Lual are at?

Not trying to be negative, I just think at some point you to either have to go let's have a bit of a crack at it with these young guys - or alternatively you cut your losses and start again.

Zach Reid, as an example, will be 23 by Round 1. A lot of these guys, whilst still young, aren't exactly kids any more. He's almost 5 years older than a Levi Ashcroft. Reid's obviously a rare case with a big asterisk next to his name, but the fact remains.

I suppose if we keep our draft hand as is and none/not many of those younger guys come on, we do have two first rounds picks next year to start again.

As you've said, maybe it kind of just is what it is at this stage - it just feels like we Essendon fans seem to say that a lot.

It comes to an end next year as one way or another these guys who are supposed to be the future will have progressed or not done anything more. It will spell the end of rebuild 2020 if they do not come on.

 

[Foxx]

If a bid timing for Kako is right during draft night, we should offer Richmond one of our future firsts for one of their picks 10 or 11.

By the time they are finished, they're not going to want eight 18 year olds in one year.

 

[Yoda_]

ok, so if I have worked out the draft points index with the discount this is what each bid would end up as on Isaac Kako


Currently hold;
pick 28
pick 31
pick 40
pick 46
pick 54
pick 65

the below graph is written as, pick, draft points after discount, draft picks used, pick back with left over points

Cant help but think the picks we've got in the later rounds are all around the "pick back" from left over points. Bear in mind, the points held won't change, it will just be the pick coming forward if other clubs academy &/or father sons are bid on before our picks

Pick 5	1,691 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 54 back
Pick 6	1,575 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 45 back
Pick 7	1,479 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 39 back
Pick 8	1,395 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 36 back
Pick 9	1,322 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 32 back

Pick 10	1,255 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 69 back
Pick 11	1,196 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 64 back
Pick 12	1,141 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 59 back
Pick 13	1,090 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 55 back
Pick 14	1,044 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 51 back
Pick 15	1,067 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 46 back
Pick 16	922 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 43 back
Pick 17	886 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 41 back
Pick 18	853 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 39 back

 

[Lore]

ok, so if I have worked out the draft points index with the discount this is what each bid would end up as on Isaac Kako


Currently hold;
pick 28
pick 31
pick 40
pick 46
pick 54
pick 65

the below graph is written as, pick, draft points after discount, draft picks used, pick back with left over points

Cant help but think the picks we've got in the later rounds are all around the "pick back" from left over points. Bear in mind, the points held won't change, it will just be the pick coming forward if other clubs academy &/or father sons are bid on before our picks

Pick 5	1,691 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 54 back
Pick 6	1,575 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 45 back
Pick 7	1,479 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 39 back
Pick 8	1,395 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 36 back
Pick 9	1,322 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 32 back

Pick 10	1,255 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 69 back
Pick 11	1,196 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 64 back
Pick 12	1,141 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 59 back
Pick 13	1,090 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 55 back
Pick 14	1,044 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 51 back
Pick 15	1,067 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 46 back
Pick 16	922 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 43 back
Pick 17	886 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 41 back
Pick 18	853 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 39 back

Have you taken into account that Brisbane will have to match before we do and mess up all the pick values

 

[rusman]

Have you taken into account that Brisbane will have to match before we do and mess up all the pick values

My guess post brisbanes bid



As they have 1 pick before 28/31 so both scale down 1. Then 2,3,5, etc.

But if the above is how it works, where points scale up with other bids. We could trade out our seconds and still match comfortably.

 

[eth-dog]

My guess post brisbanes bid

View attachment 2144949

As they have 1 pick before 28/31 so both scale down 1. Then 2,3,5, etc.

But if the above is how it works, where points scale up with other bids. We could trade out our seconds and still match comfortably.

31 becomes 30 but 28 stays

 

[rusman]

31 becomes 30 but 28 stays

Yup . Well done

Edit: no doubt other small differences will be there also.

 

[doug85]

Rosa mentioned in his post draft interview that we’re going to try to improve our draft hand leading up to the draft.

 

[Keystone agony]

If a bid timing for Kako is right during draft night, we should offer Richmond one of our future firsts for one of their picks 10 or 11.

By the time they are finished, they're not going to want eight 18 year olds in one year.

F1 for 10

when

F1 + F2 = 14

 

[joey_jo_jo]

This is a stupid question but if a bid is made that is worth 1,000 points and you have two picks worth 1,500 that you use to match do you get a pick worth 500 back or does it just get absorbed?

 

[eDPS]

This is a stupid question but if a bid is made that is worth 1,000 points and you have two picks worth 1,500 that you use to match do you get a pick worth 500 back or does it just get absorbed?

You get a pick of value to 500 points

 

[Milanista28]

ok, so if I have worked out the draft points index with the discount this is what each bid would end up as on Isaac Kako


Currently hold;
pick 28
pick 31
pick 40
pick 46
pick 54
pick 65

the below graph is written as, pick, draft points after discount, draft picks used, pick back with left over points

Cant help but think the picks we've got in the later rounds are all around the "pick back" from left over points. Bear in mind, the points held won't change, it will just be the pick coming forward if other clubs academy &/or father sons are bid on before our picks

Pick 5	1,691 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 54 back
Pick 6	1,575 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 45 back
Pick 7	1,479 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 39 back
Pick 8	1,395 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 36 back
Pick 9	1,322 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 32 back

Pick 10	1,255 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 69 back
Pick 11	1,196 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 64 back
Pick 12	1,141 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 59 back
Pick 13	1,090 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 55 back
Pick 14	1,044 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 51 back
Pick 15	1,067 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 46 back
Pick 16	922 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 43 back
Pick 17	886 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 41 back
Pick 18	853 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 39 back

Does this mean a bid at 9 is more beneficial for us than a bid at 10?

Bid at 9 means we pick at 32, bid at 10 means we'll pick at 40?

 

[eth-dog]

Does this mean a bid at 9 is more beneficial for us than a bid at 10?

Bid at 9 means we pick at 32, bid at 10 means we'll pick at 40?

It's not correct. A pick 9 bid is worth 1175.2, if Kako is bid on before Lombard we match with 28 (677) and 31 (606) which turns 31 into pick 64. If after Lombard we match with 29 (653) and 32 (587) and 32 turns into 68.

 

[Zach Package]

Does this mean a bid at 9 is more beneficial for us than a bid at 10?

Bid at 9 means we pick at 32, bid at 10 means we'll pick at 40?

That's actually a good shout if the maths is right. bundling up 3 picks and buying one higher selection certainly looks a more appealing option.

In the first scenario we would go Kako, 32, 46, 53, 54, 65 in the second scenario we would go Kako, 40, 46, 53, 54, 69. I wouldn't have thought we would use more than 4 selections so we want to get high and consolidate.

I know Nguyen is the other floating variable and those picks will move around in there but the first certainly looks better than the second.

Interesting discussion regarding the overflow of points. As an example if you need 1000 points to match something are you better off having 2 picks that amount to 999 points and then having to add in an additional 3rd selection so you get back something better than you had and consolidate up?

 

[eth-dog]

Lore maybe pin this so people have a reference for Kako bids.



We have 28 (677), 31 (606), 40 (429), 46 (331), 53 (233), 54 (220) and 65 (90). Now most will come in a bit or a lot in terms of the later picks but 40-65 have enough points to cover a pick 8 bid. I think the earliest bid would be pick 7 (Richmond post Ashcroft) but all of 40, 46, 53, 54 and 65 would have come in enough to cover the 13 points we're shy for that pick.